Some new information on 2024 YR4. Notwithstanding Michael Moore's caterwauling that some deported illegal alien might have saved us from the asteroid hitting the Earth in 2032, NASA still believes that the odds of it impacting the Earth is only 0.0017%, while the ESA puts it at 0.001%. In other words, its not going to hit the Earth.
What has increased, though, are the odds of it striking the Moon. NASA now places those odds at 1.7%.
Sounds like the odds aren't too good. But then odds are a funny thing. I bought a winning lottery ticket and the prize I won had odds of 1 in 1,813,028. I'm no mathematician, but AFAIK the current odds of the asteroid strike are much better than my lottery ticket.
ReplyDeleteA strike on the moon might be interesting. I've noticed that a lot of crescent and star iconography (including those widely found in Islam) show the star within the arms of the crescent, indicating that the "star" must have been either on the moon or between the moon and observer. A asteroid strike on the moon could certainly look like that.
DeleteThat would be cool.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Muslims would probably take it as some sign to start yet another jihad.
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