Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Brian Green Reviews the Bushnell SolarWrap

Brian Green who runs the Brian's Backpacking Blog reviews the Bushnell SolarWrap--a flexible solar panel/charging system that rolls up like a scroll or window shade.

The Kume Shade

NoTech Magazine describes a DIY window shade that provides not only good insulation, but probably would work very well as a blackout curtain. From the article:
The Kume is a roll-up curtain that is composed of four distinct layers.
  • A front panel which acts as the first layer and seals the perimeter of the window opening when the curtain is closed
  • A moisture barrier which prevents indoor humidity from reaching the window and condensing on the cold glass and window frame
  • Wooden battens which maintain the fabric stretched out and thereby ensure that the curtain fits tightly against both sides of the window opening (the battens also create air pockets which further reduce heat losses through the curtain)
  • A back panel which acts as the final layer of insulation and helps seal the perimeter of the window opening when the curtain is closed.
Instructions and further information for building the shade can be found at the Kume Project. 

How the U.S. Might Break Up

Some thoughts from Fred Reed on how the United States might break up, and some examples showing that it might already be happening. He writes:
A breakup will not come by armed secession. We tried that, with poor results. It will come, if it does, by gradual degrees, by inadvertence, by quietly ignoring the central government, by incremental defiance. This has begun. Whether it will continue remains to be seen. 
It is not clear that the feds could prevent it. How powerful, really, is Washington? Consider. Marijuana is illegal under federal law, yet Colorado and Washington state made it legal, and got away with it. The feds did not arrest the governors or send troops. Since then, Alaska and Washington DC have legalized weed. Other states seem poised to follow. Unless Washington does something dramatic and soon, the states will learn that they can simply ignore the feds. 
Who might like to secede? Most conspicuously, Latinos. In four states—California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico—Latinos either have or will soon have a demographic majority, which means that eventually they will have a voting majority.
On this topic, Reed observes that not only are many states and cities ignoring federal immigration laws, but that as the South West becomes more "Mexicanized," those states may increasingly ignore the border with Mexico altogether.
In the past the rock-solid unity of the United States existed because people wanted it. The foundation was a largely uniform white, Christian, European culture which no one thought about because there was no reason to think about it. Minorities were minor enough that they had to conform to the dominant culture. People shared ideas of morality, education, crime, music, religion, dress, manners, and patriotism. 
That unity is gone forever. The old, functioning system has been replaced, not by another functioning system, such as that of Japan, China, or Korea, but by civilizational chaos. A law of human behavior is that people want to live among people like themselves. Another is that they do not like being ruled from afar by people they detest. Who likes Washington today? 
Another possibility of secession lies in the South. Mississippi, the darkest state, is thirty-seven percent black. Although we are not permitted to say it, the racial hostility of blacks toward whites is intense.  While whites will (now, anyway) vote for a black candidate over a white—which is how we got Obama—blacks vote as a bloc for black candidates. (If memory serves, Obama got 93% of the black vote.) 
Should the black percentage in Mississippi grow to a tipping point, then, when whites bail out (which is usually what happens though we are not supposed to say this either), the state would become a self-governing country within a country—dependent on federal subsidies, yes, but having no loyalty to or culture in common with white society. It would not, methinks, feel an urgent need to obey federal laws.
The scenario Reed offers is in line with Tainter's thesis on the collapse of complex societies. But where Reed foresees a peaceful breakup--he argues that the Federal Government could do nothing to stop it--history shows that a breakup of a nation, or its aftermath, is rarely peaceful. Particularly where race and ethnicity play a role, ethnic cleansing is sure to follow.  Another flaw I see with his reasoning is that "Mexicanization," as he calls it, will stop with a predominantly Hispanic South West. Gains in political power there will be followed by demands for political power elsewhere--demands that might be resisted.

Finally, Reed seems to buy into the overly broad stereotype of "red state" versus "blue state" that exaggerates the unity within a given state. But it is not that clean: even blue states are mostly "red" outside of the urban areas; and even red states may have areas that are strongly "blue." Perhaps the small town and rural Coloradoan has little liking for Washington and the Northeast, but the residents of Denver probably feel differently. Similarly, the political and social attitudes of Western Oregon and Western Washington state are very different from the more conservative eastern portions of those same states.

No, if things break down, I believe it will end up being very messy.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Ebola As An STD

In some of my previous thoughts about the Ebola outbreak, I had theorized that Ebola might survive to become an STD, much like AIDS. So it was with interest that I saw this New York Times article entitled "Liberia Recommends Ebola Survivors Practice Safe Sex Indefinitely." From the article:

The Liberian government recommended on Saturday that survivors of Ebola practice safe sex indefinitely, until more information can be collected on the length of time the virus might remain present in body fluids including semen. Previously, male survivors were advised to abstain from sexual intercourse or to use condoms for three months, reflecting that the active virus had been detected for up to 82 days in semen. 
Acting on new developments, all countries affected by the Ebola outbreak need to consider applying similar recommendations, said Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations secretary general’s special envoy for Ebola. 
Agencies involved in the response were urgently reviewing the issue. “Yet again the Ebola-affected communities are asked to deal carefully with an unknown,” Dr. Nabarro wrote in an email, adding that survivors “should not be stigmatized as they take actions for the public good. They are the heroes.”

Saturday, March 28, 2015

More Thoughts on Jade Helm 15

The Goliad County Commissioners Court unanimously approved a request by the U.S. Army Special Operations Command to conduct military exercises in the county for month-long period in 2015. 
Thomas Mead, operations planner for the U.S. Army’s Jade Helm realistic military training, spoke to the court during its Dec. 8 meeting ....
“This allows our soldiers to get a better training environment,” Mead said. “You can only do so much in a military environment. You don’t really get a true interaction with the public.” 
Jade Helm is an eight-week joint military and interagency unconventional warfare exercise that will be conducted in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. The exercises will also be conducted in 15 other Texas
locations, including Victoria County. 
 
“We have Army Green Berets, Navy Seals, Marine Special Operations Command, the 82nd Airborne Division and we also have some of our interagency partners such as the DEA, FBI and the joint personnel recovery agency that will be working with us.” 
... Mead said county residents will see increased aircraft in the area at night .... 
Some participants will be carrying weapons with blank ammunition and some may be wearing civilian attire while driving civilian vehicles.
The Joint Personnel Recovery Agency provides training (SERE) and support for recovery of troops and civilians isolated behind enemy lines or taken prisoner. It also coordinates domestic terrorism response operations and helps the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the FBI guard against weapons of mass destruction in the United States. The latter article indicates that the JPRA, at least at the White Bluff facility outside Spokane, also works with the CIA and DEA.

This suggests two things to me. First, this is going to be a serious exercise of some special forces operators pretending to be terrorists sneaking into or around parts of the country, with law enforcement trying to track them down. That the exercise is concentrated along the border with Mexico and main smuggling routes is indicative that our national security apparatus view that as a probable scenario for a WMD to be snuck into the country.

Second, it is also an opportunity for SOF and law enforcement to coordinate in operations against the drug cartels in some of the prime smuggling routes.

Friday, March 27, 2015

"A simple solution for stinky shoes..."

An article at Fresh Bites Daily for DIY shoe fresheners. 

How A Russian Coup Might Go Down

"Rofer on The Fall of Beria and Putin’s Vanishing Act"--a look back at the convenient timing of Stalin's death, and the behind the scenes battle for control of the Soviet Union.

Was Andreas Lubitz a Muslim Convert?

A German news organization is claiming that Lubitz was a Muslim convert that had stayed at times in a mosque in Bremen--the same mosque in which Mohammad Atta had stayed. It will be interesting if this story can be verified. However, the evidence currently is pointing to mental illness and a breakup with his girlfriend.

In related news, check out the story entitled "Suicide by Airplane: It’s Rare, But It Happens" from Air & Space. Of course, it is not just suicide but mass murder. Mass murder that makes even the worst mass shootings trivial in comparison.

After Airstrikes, a Ground Invasion....

In the air assault codenamed "Operation Decisive Storm," Saudi Arabia deployed some 100 fighter jets, 150,000 soldiers and other navy units, Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya TV reported. Also involved were aircraft from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and Egypt, though it was not clear which carried out actual strikes. 
Once the airstrikes have weakened the rebels and their allies in the military forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a ground invasion of Yemen is planned by Egyptian Saudi and other forces. 
The assault will come from Saudi Arabia and by landings on Yemen's coasts along the Red and Arabian seas, according to three Egyptian military and security officials.
Three to five Egyptian troop carriers are stationed offshore, they said, although the number of troops was not specified, and the timing of the operation was not given.
 
The aim is not to occupy Yemen but to weaken the Houthis and their allies until they enter negotiations for power-sharing, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the plans with the press. 
Egypt is "prepared for participation with naval, air and ground forces if necessary," Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri said at a gathering of Arab foreign ministers preparing for a weekend summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

"China has an ISIS problem"

An article at The Week. From the article:
Seven Chinese nationals were recently detained in Turkey as they attempted to enter Syria. The Chinese, described as hailing from the traditionally Muslim province of Xinjiang, were detained by border guards. 
The incident has highlighted China's growing problem with its own Muslim minority. Chinese officials are worried radicalized Uighurs traveling abroad to train and fight will return with skills that could bolster China's domestic insurgency. 
This is a small problem that will become a much bigger problem in the near future.
Xinjiang Autonomous Region is China's westernmost territory. Twice as large as Texas, it was incorporated into China in the 18th century. The Uighur people, the traditional dominant ethnic group, are Central Asians of Turkic origin and predominantly Muslim. 
 
They are also unhappy. Since 1955, the Chinese government has ran a settlement program for other Chinese — particularly Han Chinese — to migrate to Xinjiang. Native Uighurs feel their homeland is being colonized by outsiders, their culture is now the minority and there are fewer economic opportunities for them as there are for recent arrivals. Uighurs have also felt pressure on their Muslim faith. 
The result has been a growing Uighur insurgency that has allegedly carried out terrorist attacks not only in Xinjiang but the rest of China. The Chinese government blames Uighur terrorists not only for attacks against Han Chinese and government facilities within Xinjiang and also an attack in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in October 2013 and a mass knife attack at Kunming train station that killed 29 and left 140 injured. China claims the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is responsible, a radical group that advocates an independent East Turkestan incorporating part of Xinjiang. 
Chinese Uighurs have been going abroad to train and fight. Aspiring jihadis travel overland to Vietnam or Thailand, then on to the Middle East. More than 800 have been stopped in Vietnam in one year alone. China has even set up a special police unit nicknamed “4.29” to stop human traffickers in southern border states neighboring Southeast Asia.
Read the whole thing.

TFB Review of the Vanquest Rackit-36 Covert Rifle Bag

Image 8


The Firearms Blog reviews a covert rifle bag from Vanquest. Sorry about the small photo; larger photos can be found at the manufacturer's website or at TFB's review. Obviously, I haven't used the bag, but the article caught my attention for the possibility of a get-home bag or BOB that would also contain a rifle. So, just a few thoughts:

It appears from both the review and Vanquest's description that the pack is outfitted to be carried with a single strap, although it can be switched from one side to another. The interior compartment is 36 inches long, but from the list of firearms it can accept, it appears that 33 inches is realistically the longest that can be easily contained. This means that most rifles will either need the stock collapsed or folded (for instance, the TFB review notes that a SCAR 17 would fit, but only with the stock folded).

Vanquest describes it as "[d]esigned for covert operations and urban settings, the RACKIT-36 Covert rifle pack provides discreet and secure transportation of your carbine with a rapid deployment capability." Although I suppose it may look rather benign to someone not familiar with concealed carry, the shape is different enough from a standard backpack that it still seems to stick out. It doesn't appear to offer enough volume to carry the gear for a viable get-home bag or a bug-out-bag, and the single shoulder strap doesn't seem like it would be viable for long distance carry. So, the use seems restricted to carrying a carbine concealed over a short distance from a vehicle to where the weapon can be extracted and stock unfolded/adjusted for use.

"14″ Mossberg Non-NFA Scattergun"

The Firearms Blog describes another workaround to certain National Firearms Act (NFA) provisions--in this case, building a scattergun with a 14 inch barrel that is not a short-barreled shotgun, but not a concealable pistol shooting shotgun shells.

TTAG's Review of the Primary Arms Classic 30MM Red Dot GEN II

Short take: they like it.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

"Foraging Isn’t Actually That Cool"

The downside to foraging from Modern Farmer.

Storing Wheat

A useful article from the Utah State University Extension office on the basic types of wheat, storing wheat, and environmental conditions (heat and/or humidity) that can degrade wheat. As long as wheat is stored in a cool environment, it can be stored up to 6 months in a pantry; or up to a year in a freezer. However, in sealed containers (e.g., sealed #10 cans or plastic buckets) it can last for decades.

Flour generally has a shorter shelf life, although sources seem to disagree as to the time (see, e.g., here and here).

China's Space Weapon Developments

On China’s space weapons buildup, dubbed “counterspace” arms by the Pentagon, Haney said the United States needs to be ready to deal with attacks on satellites in a future conflict. 
“The threat in space, I fundamentally believe, is a real one. It’s been demonstrated,” Haney said, noting China’s 2007 anti-satellite missile test against an orbiting satellite that created tens of thousand of debris pieces. 
“They’ve repeated this kind of test last summer, and during that test, fortunately, they did not do a hit-to-kill kind of thing,” he said, noting that no further debris was created.
“But just seeing the nature of these types of activities show how committed they are to a counter-space campaign,” Haney said. “So we have to be ready for any campaign that extends its way into space.”
 
The July 23 test of the anti-satellite missile was identified by defense officials as the DN-1 anti-satellite interceptor missile. China also has a second anti-satellite (ASAT) missile called the DN-2 that was tested in 2013 and is designed to hit satellites in high-earth orbit—the location of intelligence, navigation, and targeting satellites. 
China, which is publicly opposing the development of space weapons, did not identify the test as an anti-satellite missile. Instead, the Defense Ministry described the test as a “land-based anti-missile technology experiment.” 
Haney said the July test was similar to the 2007 ASAT test. 
“The only difference this time [is that] it did not impact another satellite,” he said. “I’m not convinced that was their intention. But quite frankly, just the whole physics and the demonstration and everything that they did, I’m sure they collected data in order to further make this an operational capability. … This was also a test for capability in low earth orbit.”

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Immigration and Negative Returns on Investment

[Robert] Rector [of the Heritage Foundation] told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee last week that the lifetime costs of Social Security and Medicare benefits paid to the millions of immigrants to whom Obama is granting legal status will be about $1.3 trillion. 
Rector's calculation is based on his assumption that at least 3.97 million immigrants will receive legal status under Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents, and the average DAPA beneficiary has only a 10th-grade education. 
DAPA recipients, according to Rector's calculations, will receive $7.8 billion every year once they get access to the refundable earned income tax credit and the refundable additional child tax credit. Those EITC and ACTC recipients will also be allowed to claim credit for three years of illegal work, which will sock U.S. taxpayers for another $23.5 billion.

* * *
The average DAPA-eligible family already receives about $6,600 a year in means-tested welfare benefits. That includes food stamps, school lunch (and breakfast), Medicaid, the State Children's Health Insurance Program and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children.
 
Many Americans labor under the false assumption that because most immigrants are hardworking, they do not depend on welfare assistance. In fact, as Rector patiently explains, most welfare benefits go to households with children headed by a low-income employed adult. 
Rector estimates that the combined cost of means-tested welfare benefits the immigrants who came here illegally now receive, plus other goodies such as EITC and ACTC cash, will encourage increased illegal immigration in the future.

* * *
Nearly a third of "English learners" in U.S. public schools are third-generation Americans who still are not speaking English at home, and the Hispanic illegitimacy rate is 53%. The cheap labor welcomed by employers is not only a huge impediment for American job seekers but also a big expense to taxpayers, who are hit with new costs of schools, hospitals and prisons.

"Food Storage Essentials: Tips for storing leavening and salt"

An article by Leslie Probert at the Deseret News.

Preparing and Canning a Navy Bean and Ham Soup

Perky Prepping Gramma has a recipe and instructions for making navy bean and ham soup, and canning the same for your food storage.

Monday, March 23, 2015

"Build a Keyhole Garden"

An article from Backwoods Home Magazine for those living in arid, rocky environments, or otherwise where there is poor soil.
A keyhole garden is basically an aboveground circle garden with a notch in it resembling a keyhole (hence the name) and a composter directly in the center to continuously feed the entire garden. The purpose of the notch is so you can reach the composter easily without having to step into the garden. A keyhole garden should be no larger than about six feet in diameter. Any bigger than that, and the water and nutrients will have a hard time reaching the edges of the garden. 
The keyhole garden was invented and used by missionaries in areas of frequent drought or natural desert conditions, mainly places such as Africa, where this style of garden is still being used today. These gardens give people a way to feed their families healthy, sustainable food even in the middle of a drought or economic trouble. A keyhole garden has the ability to use very little water (only a gallon a day in slightly cooler weather), especially if you make a cover for your composter. This prevents the water from evaporating as quickly. 
Keyhole gardens also provide a significant amount of food for such a small footprint. I experimented with my garden this year; half of it I planted with the "correct" amount of space between plants and on the other half I crowded them purposefully. The side that I crowded did significantly better due to the fact that the crowding allowed a natural shade and mulch environment which aided in water conservation for the plants.
Read the whole thing, including the instructions.

The Weaver Stance Explained

Article and video at the Empty-Cases blog.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

"Can you learn martial arts from books and videos?"

A video from Skalligram:


Short answer: no (or not really) on your own; yes (possibly) with a partner. But, even with a partner, there are difficulties and limitations on learning without a competent instructor, and it will be slower.

Friday, March 20, 2015

"A Common Over-The-Counter Cough Suppressant Can Boost Insulin"

An article at Ars Technica. The cough suppressant is Dextromethorphan (DXM), which can be found in Vick's NyQuil Cold & Flu Relief, Triaminic Multi-Symptom Fever, Dimetapp Children's Multi-Symptom Cold & Flu, Tylenol Cold Multi-Symptom Nighttime, and similar over-the-counter cold medicines. The research cited by the article suggests that the cough suppressant may be more effective for treating Type 2 diabetes than other diabetic medications.

Russian Leaders Contemplating War?

I am just going to provide links to a couple articles by J.R. Nyquist on rumors that Russia may be considering a nuclear strike on the U.S. in the near future: "What Is Moscow’s Game?" and "It Takes a Traitor (and a Misfit)." I hope to further address these articles over the weekend.

More Photographs of Ruins

The Knowledge website has a collection of beautiful (in a haunting way) modern ruins, including the one shown below. Check them all out.

source:

ATF Received More Comments on Ammo Ban Than Previously Reported

The ATF had previously reported receiving about 80,000 comments to its proposal to ban the M885 ammunition. Now, the Agency is admitting to receiving more than 310,000 comments.

Review of Long Term Use of the BCM Gunfighter Stock

The Firearms Blog offers a long-term review of the BCM Gunfighter stock by Timothy Yan, who apparently has been using it since May 2014.

Get Ready for Erdogan Caliphate?

The head of a provincial branch of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has stirred the pot by tweeting that the country should “get ready for the caliphate” of President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan. 
Fuat Özgür Çalapkulu, the head of the AKP in the eastern province of Siirt, sent the controversial tweet on March 17, hours after Selahattin DemirtaÅŸ, the co-leader of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), said his party “will never let you be president [in a presidential system].” 
In his tweet, Çalapkulu said ErdoÄŸan’s opponents had in the past claimed that ErdoÄŸan could not even be a village headman, but in fact he managed to rise to the top of the Turkish state. 
“Now they are saying he cannot be president [under a presidential system]. The caliph is coming, get ready,” he added, referring to ErdoÄŸan as “the tall man,” like many of his supporters.  
A caliph is a spiritual leader of Islam who claims succession from Prophet Muhammad. The word, stemming from the Arabic khalifa meaning “successor,” has been the focus of much debate since being claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
 Ã‡alapkulu goes on to claim that he meant a different meaning or connotation.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Post-SHTF Security from a Woman's Perspective

Evelyn Hively is one of the contributors to the Blue Collar Prepping blog. Back in the early days of the blog, she wrote a three part article on security entitled "Security: It's Everyone's(!) Job" which focused on security issues from a woman's perspective. The first part of the series mostly concentrated on ways to not stick out as a woman--i.e., not make yourself a target. The other two parts dealt with more general security concerns. Anyway, check them out: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

For Some Reason, This Appeals To Me As A Retreat....

From the Daily Mail:
If you dream of living on a houseboat or barge but can't imagine giving up some of your mod cons, this floating home may be the answer. 
The solar-powered Water Nest 100 can be placed on any lake or river and is completely powered by solar energy.  
It was developed for London-based EcoFloLife by Italian architect Giancarlo Zema and has enough space to accommodate a family of four with two bedrooms.  
The largest model of the circular house measures 39 ft (12 metres) in diameter and 13 ft (4 metres) tall, with 1,076 square feet (100 square metres) of floor space plus balconies.  
Other homes can be made to order in both 649 square feet (60 square metre) and 861 square feet (80 square metre) versions. 
Prices start at €500,000 (£358,000) and range up to €800,000 (£57,000) and the home can be placed on any 'calm body of water' - it can also be moved, albeit not easily. These prices include furnishings from EcoFloLife catalogue including chairs and beds made from cardboard
Outside

The largest model measures 39 ft (12 metres) in diameter and 13 ft (4 metres) tall, with 1,076 square feet (100 square metres) of space plus balconies. Other homes can be made to order in both 649 square feet (60 square metre) and 861 square feet (80 square metre) versions
Inside
It's surrounded by water (i.e., a moat), solar powered, well lit. Unfortunately, the article doesn't discuss heating and cooling options, plumbing, etc.

Ruins of South West Detroit Hospital

... via the Daily Mail.

Despite 'private property' and 'no tresspassing' (sic) being written down the side of the building it is clear that people have continued to enter
Outside

One of the old elevators is covered in more than 30 bullet holes and has the words 'bang bang' written in red spray paint
Inside
More pictures and the story at the link.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Book Review: 1177 B.C.--The Year Civilization Collapsed.

Source: Amazon.com

Last month I posted a short excerpt from an article discussing the collapse of Hittite, Minoan, and Mycenaean civilizations. The article cited Eric H. Cline's book, 1177 B.C.--The Year Civilization Collapsed. Intrigued, I subsequently purchased and read Cline's book as part of my continuing study into the decline and collapse of civilizations. The primary importance of Cline's work is to summarize some of the more recent research and discoveries concerning these peoples, and offer some ideas as to their collapse.

The Late Bronze Age (approx. 1570 to 1200 B.C.--and notably, post-Thera) saw 5 (or 6) principle civilizations around the Mediterranean and Near Middle-East: the Minoans-Mycenaeans in and around Greece and the Aegean, Egypt along the Nile and extending control into Canaan, the Hittite Empire controlling most of Asia Minor, the Mittani which occupied the northern Tigris and Euphrates river region, and the Babylonians. The difficulty in studying these civilizations is the paucity of evidence and writings. However, as Cline takes a considerable portion of his book to demonstrate, each of these nations or groupings of nations developed strong international ties with one another. There is evidence of extensive trade between the nations (not only luxury goods, but also bulk goods like tin ore, grain, pottery, and food oils); there are records of treaties and alliances; alliances; embargoes; wars; and, eventually, an exchange of cultural memes (fashion) between the groups. Cline summarizes in his Epilogue:
We have seen that for more than three hundred years during the Late Bronze Age--from about the time of Hatshepsut's reign beginning about 1500 BC until the time that everything collapsed after 1200 BC--the Mediterranean region played host to a complex international world in which Minoans, Mycenaeans, Hittites, Assyrians, Babylonians, Mitannians, Canaanites, Cypriots, and Egyptians all interacted, creating a cosmopolitan and globalized world system such as has only rarely been seen before the current day.
Yet, over a period of some 50 years or so, most of these nations collapsed (and Egypt was left permanently weakened), with many important cities destroyed and abandoned, many to never be reoccupied. These large states were replaced with a "dark age" characterized by smaller, less complex states, and marked a transition to the Iron Age.

For our purposes, the specifics of the evidence supporting the theory of high levels of trade and interdependence is less important than the fact that there was such trade and interdependence, and it suddenly disappeared. The traditional blame for the collapse has been placed on the "Sea Peoples"--an unknown group that invaded the Eastern Mediterranean, raided and destroyed, and then just as mysteriously disappeared. But increasingly the evidence suggests that the Sea Peoples were not a major, let alone a significant, cause of the collapse. First, while there is evidence that some cities were destroyed in battles (based on evidence of fires and arrow heads found in the ruins), it is not clear who was responsible for the destruction. Cline notes that there is evidence that some of the conflict was internal rebellion--evidenced by the targeting of palaces and government buildings--while others clearly involved conflict between neighboring states rather than an invader from the seas. There is also evidence that natural disasters played a role, with numerous cities showing evidence of damage from earthquakes during this same period; and evidence of droughts and famine, and requests for food shipments between some of the nations. Ultimately, though, Cline rejects these as, individually, being able to concurrently bring down all of these civilizations.

Cline also considers the idea of systems collapse--that the nations were so interdependent that a significant disaster to one of the members was enough to start a cascade of collapses in the other nations. Cline, citing Colin Renfrew of Cambridge University, notes that the general features of systems collapse are: (1) the collapse of the central administrative organization; (2) the disappearance of the traditional elite class; (3) a collapse of the centralized economy; and (4) a settlement shift and population decline.
It might take as much as a century for all aspects of the collapse to be completed, [Renfrew] said, and noted that there is not single, obvious cause for the collapse. Furthermore, in the aftermath of such a collapse, there would be a transition to a lower level of sociopolitical integration and development of "romantic" Dark Age myths about the previous period.
Cline points out that other scholars dispute the systemic collapse theory because it does not explain why the palaces and cities were destroyed and burned. However, Cline observes that the post-Late Bronze Age exhibited all of Renfrew's features; and that while the individual problems facing the cultures were significant, alone they cannot explain the collapse, but the combination of disasters, multiplying and causing other disasters, seems to explain the facts. "Perhaps the inhabitants could have survived one disaster, such as an earthquake or a drought, but they could not survive the combined effects of earthquake, drought, and invaders all occurring in rapid succession." Cline then brings in theories of complexity, noting that as systems become more complex and interdependent, maintaining the overall stability of the system becomes more difficult, and the system becomes more liable to collapse and decompose into smaller, more stable systems. Interestingly, though, the evidence shows that the systems of trade continued up to (and perhaps beyond) the collapse. Thus, the final collapse must have been sudden.

The reason for this, and the choice of 1177 BC as a closing date, is that it was in that year, "according to the Egyptian records, that the Sea Peoples came sweeping through the region, wreaking havoc for a second time. It was a year when great land and sea battles were fought in the Nile delta; a year when Egypt struggled for its very survival; a year by which time some of the high-flying civilizations of the Bronze Age had already come to a crashing halt."

If Tainter's work on The Collapse of Complex Societies comes to mind, it think it should. Unfortunately, Cline only obliquely references Tainter in an end note to an early chapter. However, applying Tainter's theory or model, we see evidence of increasingly complex and centralized societies, with a concomitant cost of maintaining such lavish rulers, that was unable to bear certain stressors that they had apparently weathered in earlier times. There simply wasn't enough resources to draw upon. Part of the reason for this may actually lie in the Biblical account.

Standard Bible chronologies place the entry of Israel into Egypt as just before 1700 B.C. However, in his book, Exodus Lost, S.C. Compton gives compelling evidence that the entry into Egypt was around 1628 B.C. based on evidence of when Egypt experienced its time of plenty (around the time of the 1645 eruption of the Anaikchak volcano in modern day Alaska) and famine (approximately 1628 BC, following the eruption of Thera). Thus, the enslavement of a rabidly expanding Canaanite population in Egypt (including the ancient Israelites) would roughly corresponds with the beginning of Egypt's New Kingdom in 1570-1544 BC.  The New Kingdom lasted until about 1069 BC--and is described as the time period when Egypt was at the height of its power and wealth. The Israelites were in Egypt for approximately 400 years. Common Bible chronologies place the Exodus and entry into the Promised Land between 1300 and 1200 BC. Ramses II is generally described as being the Pharaoh of the Exodus, and he ruled from 1279 to 1212 BC--it is believed that the Pharaoh that pursued the Israelites into the Red Sea may have been one of his sons. In any event, this places the Exodus closer to 1200 BC. Using Compton's dating, the Exodus may have actually been just after 1200 BC. In any event, about the time that Egypt lost its Nile delta slave population saw the collapse of the international system. It is possible that combined with the other disasters in the Middle-East, the loss of a significant source of labor and produce was enough to push the systems over the edge. Perhaps just as significantly, the Israelites were withdrawn and isolated from these Bronze Age civilizations just as they were going into a period of collapse and upheaval--the wilderness wanderings could be seen as a "rapture" of sort in this respect.

Cline notes several times in his book the importance of tin to the Bronze Age civilizations, holding a position akin to oil in today's economy. Cline observes that tin was imported to the Mediterranean area from as far away as Afghanistan. However, Cline seems to ignore the importance of Britain as a source of tin. It is probable that at the same time this Mediterranean/Near-Middle East trading empire existed, there was also Celtic kingdoms and empires trading tin and other materials into the Mediterranean by sea or over land. Just as the Vikings later raided a declining and fallen Roman Empire, these might be the Sea Peoples that struck such fear into the Egyptians.

In any event, what followed the collapse of the Late Bronze Age civilizations is perhaps more important. As noted above, the collapse was followed by what has been described as a "dark age." However, Cline points out that recent archeological evidence shows that this "dark age" was anything but "dark." Rather, it appears as this period acted as a catalyst of a new age--"one that would build upon the ruins of Canaanite civilization and would bequeath to the modern Western world a cultural heritage, especially through the Phoenicians and Israelites, of which we are still the benefactors." "From them eventually came fresh developments and innovative ideas, such as the alphabet, monotheistic religion, and eventually democracy. Sometimes it takes a large-scale wildfire to help renew the ecosystem of an old-growth forest and allow it to thrive afresh."

Following a very brief "dark age," was what has been described as the Axial Age:
In 1949 the German philosopher Karl Theodor Jaspers coined the phrase “Achsenzeit” (“Axial Age” or “Axis age” in English) to describe a time between approximately 900 - 200 BCE when “The spiritual foundations of humanity were laid simultaneously and independently and these are the foundations upon which humanity still subsists today.” 
It was a pivotal time in early human history when human beings began to reflect for the first time about individual existence, and the meaning of life and death.
"Jaspers argued that during the Axial Age 'the spiritual foundations of humanity were laid simultaneously and independently in China, India, Persia, Judea, and Greece. And these are the foundations upon which humanity still subsists today.'" John Meyer, writing in Psychology Today, observed:
People who lived on the early side of the axis, some scholars believe, lacked much self-reflection and lacked the concepts, ideas, and thoughts related to such awareness. People who lived on the later side of the axis were essentially contemporary in those aspects of their psychology. 
Before the Axial transformation, human beings told one another myths and other stories about how they came to be. The stories were not regarded as true or false; rather, their truth did not require questioning.  Such was the state of human beings, Jaspers believed, because of a lack a self-reflective, fully conscious self-understanding.  Under such conditions, abstract truths matter not. 
During the Axial-age, however, some scholars argue that dramatic shifts took place in human thought across four geographically distinct regions of the world: India, China, the Middle East, and Greece. 
New ways of thinking emerged that defined the world's psychological culture for all time since. Jaspers wrote: 
What is new about this age...is that man becomes conscious of Being as a whole, of himself and his limitations. He experiences the terror of the world and his own powerlessness. He asks radical questions. Face to face with the void he strives for liberation and redemption. By consciously recognising his limits he sets himself the highest goals. 
Big questions that were specifically psychological in nature emerged: "Who am I?" and "Why are people different?
(See also this article at the New World Encyclopedia).

Turning back to the Biblical account, when Israel first attempted to enter Canaan, those nations were likely still at the height of their power. 40 years later, though, they would have been greatly reduced in power and population. Israel, in many ways, was essentially moving into a post-apocalyptic world. The people they were supposed to conquer were, in all likelihood, mostly gone.

In thinking over this topic that last several days, I believe this collapse actually has far reaching lessons for us as we near the Second Coming. First, as the very collapse illustrates, all complex societies are vulnerable to collapse. The exact mechanism and timing may not be in our power to predict, but that it will occur is without question. However, just as Israel was withdrawn and protected during the period of upheaval, scripture indicates that many of the Saints during the coming collapse will also be protected, and later migrate into areas that have been abandoned and depopulated (the return to Missouri being a prime example). Another important point though is that the destruction of the Late Bronze Age kingdoms paved the way for a great transformation and even greater kingdoms and empires. So too we should look forward to the Second Coming as a transformative event that will likewise usher in new ways of thinking, a new civilization, greater than what is being replaced.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

From the Archive: "Another Perspective Against the Rural Retreat"

Originally published November 3, 2013.

Modern Survival Online republished an article about the financial collapse in New Zealand in 1984, and the aftermath. The author lived in a rural community. The first point she made was that as the government cut back on jobs and benefits, it did so first in the rural communities where it wouldn't receive press coverage. She writes:

One night the new government withdrew all subsidies from the farmers. We had a plant nursery and about 60% of our turnover was from servicing the farmers. Overnight the farmers closed up their check books and stopped buying anything. Within weeks the forestry employees lost their jobs. They had bought about 20% of our stock. The local town used to service the farmers and the forestry workers and all the small businesses cash-flows were similarly effected further impacting on each others cash flow as the money ceased to flow through the community. Other rural areas had the same problems and as the coal mines were shut down and the railway employees lost their jobs things became dire. Many rural businesses sunk without trace and rural communities suffered.
But she also writes about the social deterioration, starting with the ostracization of those who lost their jobs due to the government's financial "restructuring." But it became worse, although not as bad as Argentina and Russia experienced:

The local rural community got nasty. People got picked on socially. This was particularly so when newcomers – those who had moved in to the community in the last 25 years, still had jobs and the old timers lost theirs. Male violence against women sky rocketed. But it was all private violence. It didn’t spill out into the streets. When a woman was raped or beaten up in the home, it was understood to be her fault, not the males.

It was not a nice place to be and we, along with many others went to the city. There was still the promise of work in the cities, though it didn’t eventuate to much. There we looked after each other much more. We were all in the same boat. There was probably violence hidden behind closed doors, but I didn’t hear about it. We struggled from week to week, sought work where we could get it and took the chance to get an education when work wasn’t available. 
She sums up:
 It was hard, hard, hard. But we didn’t think to bug out to the country – we went from the country to the city instead. We went to where we hoped we could find work. We went to where the resources were.

Saturday, March 14, 2015

"Great Military Battles"

For those of you that are interested in military history, check out the website "Great Military Battles."

Evidence that ISIS is Using Chlorine Gas As Chemical Weapon

There is evidence to prove that ISIS is using chlorine gas as a chemical weapon in its battle against peshmerga forces in Iraq, Kurdish authorities have claimed. 
It says peshmerga forces discovered '20 gas canisters' loaded on the back of a truck involved in a suicide bomb attack in Iraq on January 23. 
The Kurdistan Region Security Council says the chemical attack took place on a road between Iraq's second largest city of Mosul and the Syrian border. 
It was here that peshmerga fighters were desperately trying to seize the vital supply line used by the militants when they found the alleged weapons.
(Full story at the Daily Mail).

The Lure of Caesarism

Richard Fernandez writes about "The Men Who Would Be Kings." After discussing the inherent instability of autocracies, and the assumed "inevitability" of a Hillary presidential nomination, Fernandez observes:
The American founding fathers were well acquainted with the world of kings and rejected it, feeling that a mighty nation founded on boring public consensus led by ordinary men would fare better than under a monarch; not perfectly, but better. The modern American elite has rejected this wisdom. They envy the kings of the world. Even the greatest servants of the American Republic are paupers by comparison to foreign autocrats. CNN Money has a chart comparing the richest American politicians to their Chinese counterparts. It is easy to see how the American political elite can be dazzled, not only by their wealth, but their unfettered raw power. 
... Should anyone succeed at “Caesarism” there might be personal glory in it a spell.  But Caesar would still live under the Hollow Crown and such a system would bring lasting instability to the magnificent — and regrettably ordinary — Republic.
Fernandez cites to an article by Ross Douthat in the New York Times. Douthat focuses on comments by Dan Pfeiffer, the outgoing White House advisor, suggesting that liberal, unilateral action has "worked" better for Obama than attempting to compromise with Republicans. Douthat questions whether it "worked" in the sense that it helped Obama's popularity with the political middle. Instead, the evidence seems to indicate that it alienated the political middle.
Unless, of course, you just define “worked” to mean “changed public policy without the opposition being able to stop us,” in which case we’re just dealing with Caesarism justified by consequentialism, and Pfeiffer’s argument is the boasting of a successful machiavel, unmoored both from constitutional norms and his boss’s own once-professed ideals. Which seems like the more accurate reading of the account he’s giving Chait: It’s less a story of how this president forged a political strategy better suited to our polarized times than it is a story of how Obama realized that a second-term president in an era of gridlock doesn’t need to be politically successful to put his stamp on major policy arenas … he just needs to let go of any principled concerns about what a president can and cannot do. 
And note that those concerns don’t even seem to rate a mention in the Pfeiffer-by-way-of-Chait description of the White House’s internal deliberations. (Any more than the fact that the president spent years lying about his own religious convictions troubles Pfeiffer’s portrayal of Obama’s “shift” on same-sex marriage as a key moment of progressive heroism … though in fairness, the right to lie shamelessly is a much more traditional presidential power.) Instead, expediency is all: A given move is a success if the opposition fails to find a way to block it, the hemmers and hawers are proven wrong if the president isn’t impeached, and the state of your party doesn’t really matter because an unbound presidency is all that progressivism really needs. 
Presumably there are still binding limits out there somewhere; even the president’s courtiers would concede that much. But for now, with re-election already accomplished, with a Congress too dysfunctional to effectively fight back, it clearly feels pretty good to be — or serve — the king.
Oswald Spengler looked forward to the rise of Caesarism; James Blish, writing in 1978, believed that we had nearly passed through that period. However, I think that we have only just entered into the period of Caesarism.

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Flow Hive



This looks like an interesting invention. From the description:
Flow is a revolutionary beehive invention, allowing you to harvest honey without opening the hive and with minimal disturbance to the bees. 
* * * 
Turn the tap and watch as pure, fresh, clean honey flows right out of the hive and into your jar. No mess, no fuss, no expensive processing equipment and without disturbing the bees.
(H/t Lust for Green)

The EDGE Teaching Method

Mark Hatfield, writing at Loose Rounds, recently published an article entitled "Instructors--They Ain't All The Same." He gives an example in the article where he recently "baby sat" a handgun class while acting as a range officer. The class's instructor (certified by an unnamed national shooting organization) claimed that the class was "intermediate" level, whereas Hatfield found them to lack even some of the most basic skills with their own weapons. He proceeded to instruct some of the class members how to hold, shoot, and reload their particular weapons. He writes:
After about an hour and a half I was notified that I would be needed elsewhere, could these guys be left alone? I said ‘no’, but that it might be easily correctable (I hoped). At the next reasonable opportunity I announced that I had to leave and asked to speak with the instructor on the side. I had seen that the guys all did reholster safely, that was good. I explained that there was a serious problem which he had not realized. He apologized for letting the students draw their guns while he was in front of them, I explained that there was much more than that. I mentioned that the guys could be (without being aware of it) pointing guns at their own feet, at their hands, at each other and he would never know because he NEVER watched them. I tried to really drive this home. I suggested that he use this method: 
Explain what he wants them to do. 
Demonstrate. 
Then WATCH them. 
Give them corrections as they may need. 
I could have said a lot more, that he was wasting their time and money as well as reinforcing bad habits, letting them think that what they did was OK, but I didn’t.
I didn’t think this ‘instructor’ was an idiot. However that day, he was not an instructor, he really was not instructing. He thought he was. I thought he could become an OK instructor but the large well known organization which gave him his teaching credentials clearly never taught him how to teach.
Although he did not use the acronym adopted by the Boy Scouts, what he mentions above mirrors the Boy Scout's EDGE system of teaching skills.

EDGE stands for Explain, Demonstrate, Guide, and Enable. (Here is a basic guide to the system--PDF).

Explain--this is pretty straightforward. It is simply to talk to the students about what you are going to do, and explain the steps, stages, etc., of the skill or activity. Visual aids and questions may be appropriate.

Demonstrate--this is where the instructor shows the students how to perform the skill.

Guide--that is, the students perform the task under guidance and instruction from the teacher(s). This is the opportunity for one-on-one time to deal with difficulties or issues for the individual student, or to answer questions that the student thought "too stupid" to raise in front of other students.

Enable--at this stage, the students will practice the task on their own. Although the instructor is not guiding the student at this stage, he/she should be observing the student(s) and be able to step in to correct a problem or answer questions.

The Boy Scouts recommend that approximately 25% of the time allotted for teaching a skill be used for explaining, 10% for demonstrating, and the remaining 65% in guiding and enabling the student(s).

I would note that not only are troop leaders and assistants supposed to use this method, but that the Scouts are also taught this method and must use it when they are tasked with teaching the other boys in the troop. I think that it is helpful for the boys to understand how they will be taught because it assures them ahead of time that they will be shown how to perform the skill, and receive individual guidance.

Obviously, in prepping, there will be times where you may be teaching family members, friends, or other preppers about certain skills. This is a handy and simple guide to remember the steps on how to effectively teach them.

Additional Information: "Scouting’s Teaching EDGE (BSA Edge Method)"; "EDGE Method"; "Trainer's EDGE";

Indiana Applies the Castle Doctrine Against a Police Officer

The Indiana Court of Appeals has issued a decision in a case called Cupello v. State (pdf link) where it overturned a conviction for battery of a police officer based on the application of Indiana's castle doctrine statute. The basic facts are that an off-duty officer moonlighting as a "courtesy officer" for an apartment complex visited Mr. Cupello to discuss a complaint that Cupello had verbally threatened a manager. The officer, as was his habit, surreptitiously placed his foot slightly within the threshold of the door to block any attempt to shut the door. Mr. Cupello attempted to end the conversation by slamming the door shut, which, of course, struck the officer in the foot, shoulder and head. Cupello then slammed the door twice more before getting the officer to remove his foot. The court found that by placing his foot inside the threshold to block the door from closing, the officer had entered Cupello's apartment. Because the officer had no legal justification for entering the apartment when he placed his foot there, the Court found that the entry by the officer was illegal and Cupello was entitled to use reasonable force to prevent the illegal entry per the statute. Finally, the court held that attempting to slam the door shut was reasonable force.

(H/t Instapundit)

Replacing the Wick on a Kerosene Heater

I had mentioned last month about using kerosene heaters as a backup or supplemental source of heat for an apartment or house. Kerosene heaters are pretty fool-proof, but that doesn't mean that they don't require any maintenance. If nothing else, depending on the use, you will need to periodically replace the wicks. Fortunately, Advanced Survival Guide has a good article, with photographs, explaining how to do this.

Democrats Introduce Bill to Ban 5.56 Ammo

The Hill reports:
Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) is pushing the Armor Piercing Bullets Act followingthe Obama administration’s decision earlier this week to withdraw a controversial proposal that would restrict 5.56 mm projectiles for M855 cartridges commonly used in AR-15 rifles. 
“Armor-piercing rounds like green tips should only be in the hands of military personnel or police officers, period,” Engel said. “There is absolutely no compelling argument to be made for anyone else to have access to them.”
To show how ignorant Engel is about the subject, not only does he call the bullets "armor-piercing" (they are not), but then jokes that he has never seen a deer wandering around the forest in Kevlar--although most any deer hunting cartridge would punch right through a Kevlar vest. Which brings me to the last tidbit in the story:
[Rep. Jackie Speier (Calif.)] is also planning to introduce her own piece of legislation next week that would more broadly ban forms of armor-piercing ammunition. 

Thursday, March 12, 2015

"Being prepared for the apocalypse got me ready for motherhood"

An essay by Riva Soucie at The Globe and Mail.

Democrats and ATF Still Pushing for Restrictions on 5.56 Ammo

ATF Director Todd Jones

In a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, ATF Director B. Todd Jones said all types of the 5.56 military-style ammo used by shooters pose a threat to police as more people buy the AR-15-style pistols. 
"Any 5.56 round" is "a challenge for officer safety," he said. Jones asked lawmakers to help in a review of a 1986 bill written to protect police from so-called "cop killer" rounds that largely exempted rifle ammo like the 5.56 because it has been used by target shooters, not criminals.
And from The Hill:
Congressional Democrats are pressuring the Obama administration to move ahead  “swiftly” with a proposal that would ban a form of armor-piercing ammunition.

In a draft letter first obtained by The Hill, Democrats are urging the director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to use his “existing authority” to keep “dangerous ammunition out of our communities.”

“We hope that the Bureau will swiftly review comments on the proposed framework and issue a revised proposal that will address the danger posed by handguns that fire 5.56mm and other rifle ammunition,” Democrats write in the letter.
That Jones was seeking that Congress review the 1986 statute suggests that the only reason that the ATF backed off was because the ban did not comply with the 1986 law.

Shelf Life of Cooking Oil and Fuel

The Preparedness Advice Blog recently posted couple useful articles on shelf-life: specifically, an article looking at the shelf-life of various cooking oils and fats; and another article on the shelf-life of various fuels and batteries.

70% of American Men Aged 20-34 Are Not Married

Story and commentary here.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Scientists Revise Upward Chance of Major Earthquake in California

From The Daily Mail:
Scientists are virtually certain that California will be rocked by a strong earthquake in the next 30 years. Now they say the risk of a mega-quake is more likely than previously thought. 
The chance of a magnitude-8 quake striking the state in the next three decades jumped to 7 per cent from 4.7 per cent, mainly because scientists took into account the possibility that several faults can shake at once, releasing seismic energy that results in greater destruction. 
While the risk of a mega-quake is higher than past estimates, it's more likely - greater than 99 per cent chance - that California will be rattled by a magnitude-6.7 jolt similar in size to the 1994 Northridge disaster. 

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

How Silencers Work

An animation from SilencerCo shows how a silencer works. Interesting stuff.

Tail Checks

An article from Saurez International on tail checks. The article explains:
The purpose of the tail check is to identify and/or lose surveillance. When you've finished a tail check you should feel confident that no one is watching or following. The tail check can be done in various ways or combinations, or by traveling a confusing or unpredictable route. A thorough tail check could take several hours, could cover a large area and involve various means of transportation.
The article then discusses some basic tradecraft in identifying, misleading, or evading a tail. Interesting stuff.

Monday, March 9, 2015

Ragnorak Part VII--Tanks in the Baltic--Russia Planned to Take Crimea Earlier

Just a couple of new items related to the Ukraine matter. First, the AFP reports:
The United States on Monday delivered more than 100 pieces of military equipment to vulnerable NATO-allied Baltic states in a move designed to provide them with the ability to deter potential Russian threats. 
The deliveries are intended to "demonstrate resolve to President (Vladimir) Putin and Russia that collectively we can come together," US Major General John R. O'Connor told AFP as he oversaw the delivery of the equipment in the port of Riga. 
The delivery included Abrams tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, Scout Humvees as well as support equipment and O'Connor said the armour would stay "for as long as required to deter Russian aggression". 
The three former Soviet-ruled Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all NATO and European Union members since 2004, have very little miliary hardware of their own.
Second, Putin has admitted that he had planned the takeover of the Crimea weeks before the Crimea's referendum.

French Arrest Terror Suspects--Including Policewoman

The Daily Mail reports:
Four people, including a policewoman, have been arrested over links to the attacks that terrorised Paris earlier this year, French police and security officials have said. 
The two officials said one man who was detained had ties to Amedy Coulibaly, the gunman who killed a policewoman on January 8 and then four more people at a kosher supermarket on January 9 before being killed by security forces. 
They added that the detained man's ex-girlfriend, a policewoman who was suspended after peeking into his criminal file, was also in custody.

Austria Facing Debt Crises?

Jeremy Warner writes at The Telegraph about some consequences of the failure of the Hypo Alpe-Adria Bank International. He reports:
In a nutshell, the Austrian government has had enough of funding the bank’s losses, and announced plans to “bail-in” external creditors to the tune of €7.6bn instead. 
* * *  
Only in this case, the bonds are notionally guaranteed by the Austrian state of Carinthia, which now theoretically becomes liable for the bail-in. It’s an echo of the mess Ireland got itself into at the height of the banking crisis, when it foolishly attempted to stem the panic by underwriting all Irish banking liabilities; the move very nearly ended up bankrupting the entire country. Hypo will bankrupt Carinthia. 
Essentially, what the Austrian government is doing is cutting loose an entire region, rather in the way the federal authorities in the US allowed Detroit to go bust a number of years ago.
Not knowing anything about Austrian banking or bankruptcy laws (and with nothing supplied by Warner's article), it is hard to predict what the fallout will be. However, I would note that the Detroit bankruptcy, while newsworthy because of the size of the default, did not collapse states or the nation.

Product Review: The Last Stand

Assembled with 4 foot rebar and 15 inch Steel Target
I don't have a lot of money to throw around on hobbies, including shooting. So it is always nice to find a less expensive solution to a problem. I've been wanting to get a steel target for some longer distance shooting for some time, but the prices have always put me off. I'd been thinking of getting some steel plate and then fabricating something, but hadn't gotten around to it--too many other projects. This weekend, I happened into a shooting supply store that I visit infrequently, and came across The Last Stand system for $39.95 and decided to give it a go.

Basically, The Last Stand product is two plastic brackets (green in the picture above) that hold together pieces of rebar (which you supply yourself) to form a target stand from which you can hang a steel target (which you also must supply). Here are a couple more pictures of the brackets:

Outside of bracket

Inside of bracket
The plastic appears to be made of the same "self-sealing" plastic that you've probably seen for other types of targets. While I didn't test the self-sealing properties, I've used targets of the same material, and confident that it could take a hit from most types of firearms and still function.

As you can see, you push two pieces of rebar into each bracket to form the legs, and then use another two pieces to form the center support. The pieces of rebar that form the legs are actually pushed straight up into place, and then pulled apart at the base to lock the rebar into channels that form the A-frame. When you disassemble the stand, you can just squeeze the legs back together--they will pop out of their channels--for compact storage. I took a rubber mallet with me so I could remove the center support from the brackets.

The steel target is a 15-inch diameter, 1/2-inch thick plate. I've just used a couple of large carabiners to connect it to the support rods, which I also picked up at the hardware store.

As the shadows in the photographs tell, it was getting late by the time I was able to get out into the countryside to try they system out, so I didn't have a lot of time to use it. Although the rebar legs seem flimsy, they were fine when put on the soft ground and with the weight of the steel target.  The manufacturer's instructions call for 5-foot pieces of rebar, but the longest pieces at the hardware store were 4 feet long, so I used those and they seemed to be satisfactory for the area in which I was shooting and the size of steel target I was using. If I were to use this for handgun practice, I would want the target higher off the ground, and probably would look around some more to see if I could get the longer pieces of rebar. As it was, my sons and I were shooting from kneeling or sitting positions using rifles, and the height seemed about right.

After our shooting session was over, I did finds bit of lead splatter stuck into the side of one of the brackets. This simply brushed away, so I don't think it will be an issue. Although we had some wind gusts towards the end of the time we were there, the frame was steady.

In short, the system worked as advertised, and I appreciated the compactness when it was all put away. For someone on a tight budget, it was a satisfactory solution to putting together a relatively inexpensive system for hanging a steel target. And, because of the self-sealing plastic and inexpensive rebar pieces, I'm not as concerned about the consequences of an errant bullet destroying part of the stand.

Although I used carabiners to attach the steel plate, the store owner where I picked this up said that the manufacturer was working on some straps using the self-sealing plastic. These aren't out yet, but just a heads up.

Friday, March 6, 2015

Somali Pirates v. Russian Navy


... Because third world terrorists should fear civilized countries.

(I know this video is several years old, but I just came across it ...).

"The New Home Invasion"

Guns Save Life reports on gangs (particularly MS-13) turning to home invasions, focusing specifically on people that have gun safes. The article indicates that to get victims to open a safe, the perps will threaten to kill a spouse or children, or even begin to cut off fingers.

The Silent Race War Between Black and Hispanic Gangs

Jim Goad writes at Taki Magazine about the racially motivated violence between Black and Latino gangs and youths. He notes:
If you notice a pattern there, it’s that Mexicans tend to prey on blacks in West Coast cities where they’ve already become an undisputed majority, while it’s blacks preying on Mexican intruders in East Coast cities where blacks still hold a numerical advantage.
Goad also observes that this type of violence goes unreported or is downplayed, resulting in it happening under our noses without most Americans even being aware. Anyway, check it out.

"Top U.S. Army Marksman Explains Why Gun Nuts Shoot Better"

An article at War is Boring of an interview of a special operations member and what he learned from competitive shooting.

(H/t Guns Save Life)

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Stranded Drivers Forced to Forage for Food

From the Daily Mail:
A treacherous winter storm reaching from Texas to New England closed schools, canceled more than 4,000 flights and stranded hundreds of drivers overnight in Kentucky, where as much as 23 inches of snow fell. 
The snow has caused traffic to come to a standstill and a huge section of the freeway between Elizabethtown and Louisville has become a virtual parking lot - leaving cars and trucks littered across the roads since 10pm last night. 
Desperate for food, some of those stuck in the 50 mile jam have taken to foraging on the side of the road for food and Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear has declared a state of emergency. 
'Help is on the way,' Kentucky National Guard Lieutenant Colonel Kirk Hilbrecht, interviewed on CNN, told drivers stuck overnight in their cars on I-65 and I-24.

Survival Lessons from Ukraine

FerFal has posted a couple articles of lessons learned from the conflict in the Ukraine based on emails from people there. (First article) (Second article). Read them both.

China's Bubble Continues to Deflate

Various economists have been warning about China's credit bubble for years, yet China's booming economy kept enough air coming in to keep the bubble from popping or deflating too rapidly. Last spring, it finally appeared that the real estate market might have hit an inflection point as real estate sales stagnated, and prices began to fall in some of the Chinese markets. There was a concern that China was following Japan's path in the late 1980's

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in yesterday's Telegraph:
Zhiwei Zhang, from Deutsche Bank, says China faces a "fiscal cliff" this year as Beijing attempts to rein in spending. "This year, China will likely face the worst fiscal challenge since 1981. This is not well recognised in the market," he said. 
The International Monetary Fund says China's budget deficit topped 10pc of GDP in 2014 if measured properly, including borrowing by the regions through "financing vehicles" as well as land sales - a patently unsustainable form of funding that makes up 35pc of local government revenue. This is the highest deficit of any major country in the world, and far above safe levels. 
A budget squeeze is already emerging as the property slump drags on. Zhiwei Zhang says land revenues fell 21pc in the fourth quarter of last year. "The decline of fiscal revenue is the top risk in China and will lead to a sharp slowdown," he said.
 China's Development Research Centre (DRC) - the brain trust of premier Li Keqiang - has issued a new report on the bankruptcy of California's Orange County in 1994. "It is a warning to China that the country needs to improve its tax system," said the paper. 
Interestingly, the DRC has also published a report recently on the decline in China's electrical, mechanical and car industries, a finding that might surprise some in the West. 
The Chinese tax system is highly leveraged to the property cycle, like Ireland's before the boom broke in 2007. The scale is epic. A study by the US Federal Reserve found that property investment in China has risen from 4pc to 15pc of GDP since 1998. This is even higher than in Japan in the blow-off years of the late 1980s.
 The denouement is well under way. Home prices fell 3.1pc in January from a year earlier. Average sales have dropped 7pc from a year ago in the large Tier 1 cities, 22pc for Tier 2 and 15pc for the Tier 3 towns. 
The inventory overhang has risen to 18 months, three times US levels. New floor space has dropped 30pc on a three-month moving average.

Fred Reed's "The Second American Revolution"


The Washoe County, Nevada school district has implemented a new policy that allows transgender students to use the restroom and shower facilities of the opposite sex, and prohibits school staff from discussing students’ transgender status with their parents.
Meanwhile, a draft proposal of a similar policy has surfaced in the Clark County, Nevada school district.
 
The Clark County draft comes on the heels of a controversy that erupted last year when district officials proposed a new sex education curriculum that was far too explicit for many parents to stomach. 
To add to the uproar, district officials reportedly only consulted with a few handpicked residents before floating the proposal. 
The resulting protest forced the Las Vegas-based district to cancel any plans to implement the new sex ed curriculum any time soon. 
But the behind-the-scenes maneuvering is apparently ongoing. The draft document for a new policy regarding transgender students, seemingly meant to be distributed exclusively among school staff, leaked out last last year. 
Clark County transgenderIn Clark County the policy is apparently still in the consideration stages. 
It reminds me of November 2014 satire from Fred Reed entitled "The Second American Revolution," which starts out:
 The Revolution of 2019 began, curiously enough, in fall of 2019 when Mary Lou Johnson, the nine-year-old daughter of a ranching family outside of Casper, Wyoming, came home from her sex-ed class at Martin Luther King Elementary with a banana, a packet of condoms, and a book called Sally Has Two Mommies. Her mother Janey Lou, a political reactionary, took one look and began screaming. “Goddamit! Goddamit! I’m not going to take it anymore!” 
 She grabbed the shotgun, a nice Remington 870 loaded with double-ought buck, and headed for the school. 
Historians would debate just what led the surrounding population spontaneously to join her. Much of it seemed to have something to do with the schools. One father reported that he snapped when his daughter came home during Harriet Tubman Week, and he asked her about Robert E. Lee. 
“Who?” 
Another father, objecting to students who wore low-hanging pants, said, “It’s supposed to be a school, not a frigging proctology workshop.” A common concern was that in a fifth-grade class on Lesbian, Bisexual, Gay, and Transgendered Rights, the teacher had criticized Primate Privilege, saying that animals had rights too. She then gave the class a pamphlet called Mommy Says Moo. Wyoming was cattle country. Local wives were wroth. They thought it an invitation to infidelity.
 Read the whole thing.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

How To Reduce Crime

Norway reduced their violent crime rate by 30% just by deporting 824 Muslims with ties to radical groups (there is a large overlap between criminal gangs and Islamic extremists).

"Hybrid War: Old Concept, New Techniques"

An article at The Small Wars Journal. Although they don't acknowledge 4th generation war theory, the article does have this to say:

While the means by which state and non-state actors conduct hybrid war today have changed, the fundamental principle of utilizing a combination of conventional and irregular methods to achieve a political objective is consistent with older forms of conflict.  This blending has historic examples in the American Revolution with George Washington’s Continental Army and robust militia forces; the Napoleonic Wars where British regulars challenged French control of major Spanish cities, while Spanish guerrillas attacked their lines of communication; and the Arab Revolt where the British Army combined conventional operations in Palestine with irregular forces under British operational control.[i]  However, despite having its roots in history, modern hybrid war has the potential to transform the strategic calculations of potential belligerents due to the rise of non-state actors, information technology, and the proliferation of advanced weapons systems. 
The unipolar moment that has persisted since the fall of the Soviet Union has given rise to an international system in which unconventional challenges to the idea of traditional state-on-state war are increasingly prevalent.  The preponderance of American military power has tempered conflicts in Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the South China Sea, but has given rise to a method of war that attempts to leverage the weaknesses of conventional military structure.  Where wars traditionally have regular and irregular components in different areas of operation, modern hybrid war has the tendency to combine these aspects.  Modern hybrid war practitioners apply “conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and formations, and terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence, coercion, and criminal activity” simultaneously.[ii]  Under this model, war takes place in a variety of operating environments, has synchronous effects across multiple battlefields, and is marked by asymmetric tactics and techniques.[iii]  These tactics are difficult to defeat for militaries that lack the flexibility to shift mindsets on a constant basis, especially since the interconnected nature of modern society is such that hybrid war takes place on three distinct battlefields:  the conventional battlefield, the indigenous population of the conflict zone, and the international community.[iv] 
Major powers have historically sponsored irregular fighters and non-state actors in the execution of broader military campaigns, and modern examples such as Iranian support to Hezbollah and other Shia militant groups are continuations of these policies.  The Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006 showed that although the concept of hybrid war in this fashion is not novel, some of the sophistication and lethality of non-state actors, along with their ability to persist within the modern state system, is a new occurrence.
Underlines added.

Review and 1,000 Round Test of the Beretta 80x

The Firearm Blog has published their "TFB Review: 1,000 Rounds On The Beretta 80x" ( Part 1 ) ( Part 2 ).     The Beretta 80x, as ...