Potpourri of Survival, Prepping & Firearms Articles

It was time to go through the dumpster of my in-box and bookmarked articles that I found interesting and/or helpful but never got around to posting or writing about. So here in no particular order are some that I've accumulated over the past month that pertain to survival, prepping, firearms and/or self-defense.

• "The Civilian Defensive Rifle, Part 1: New Gas Length"--Guns America. Thought that your AR platform had it covered what with having pistol, carbine, intermediate and rifle length gas systems? If you said "yes" then you're wrong! Craddock Precision has introduced a new barrel and gas system created specifically for SBR length-suppressed AR-15s using 11.5 inch barrels. But Docent, you cry, what if I'm running a 15.29 inch length barrel? Don't worry because, according to the article, the company actually offers 14 different gas system lengths to fit any application. 
• "The R51 – Remington’s Coffin Nail"--Gat Daily. Long time readers know that I've had an interest in the R51 because (a) I found the hesitation lock system interesting and (b) it looked cool in a science-fictiony (is that a word?) kind of way. Unfortunately, Remington dropped the ball somewhere between the pre-production models (which were universally praised by reviewers) and the mass produced versions initially released to the public (which had such serious problems that Remington took the step of recalling all of the pistols). Remington ultimately came out with a Gen 2 version of the pistol, but between all the bad press over the Gen 1 pistol and continued reliability issues (which appear to be issues with the magazines), the company was never able to revive interest in the handgun. 

    So, with that background done, let's turn to the article in question. The author takes the reader through the background of the weapon, which was the Model 51 designed by John Pederson and manufactured between 1918 and 1926. If very briefly goes over the release of the R51 by Remington in 2014 (which disaster I related above) before going on to the author's recent experience with the firearm. He concludes:

The R51 was a neat idea. My model mostly works, and [sic] it doesn’t stand out. I wouldn’t want to fire it in a high-round count class by any means. It’s a painful little gun, and I’d imagine getting irritated quite quickly. It mostly works, with some quirks, even in the Gen 2. Had Remington released a working gun in 2014, it would likely have a cult following but probably wouldn’t have saved them from bankruptcy.

I would argue that nothing could have saved Remington from bankruptcy because, at that point, the conglomerate that owned it was merely interested in sucking out as much wealth from the company as possible. 

• "Yard Cart Wagons For Homesteading and Preparedness"--Modern Survival Blog. When I saw this article, I was reminded of a post-nuclear war story--I believe it was Farnham's Freehold by Robert Heinlein--where one of the major difficulties faced by the characters was that, for some reason, they didn't have a wheelbarrow, which made it immensely difficulty to do a lot of the gardening and other tasks involving hauling around dirt, wood, etc. Yard cart wagons are sort-of an improvement over a wheel barrow in many ways. They are obviously more stable, and instead of just hauling and then dumping, you can actually park the wagon with everything still inside, which is especially great if you are using it to move pots or transfer seedlings. The author of the MSB article notes, for instance:

• We use it during garden weeding / maintenance.
• Hauling those rocks that keep coming up out of the ground every spring – a common thing here in New Hampshire, the Granite state.
• It’s great for simply loading up with tools and ‘stuff’ for working on any given project out on the homestead.
• Hauling bags of wood pellets from the shop to the house when needed.
• Harvesting from the gardens.
• Hauling firewood.
• Getting a chainsaw and associated supplies out to that fallen tree from yet another wind storm.
• Rolling a fresh battery over to my tractor storage area to jump start my ATV (guess I need a new battery).
• And so much more.. of course

They recommend the Gorilla Cart, which I believe is what I have. (I have a Rubbermaid yard cart).

• "3 Things To Know About Wheelchair CCW"--NRA Family.  The article is primarily about holster selection and suggests that someone in a wheelchair or that needs to use a scooter look for (1) a leather holster with (2) good retention of the handgun in the holster and (3) which can be detached as a unit from the user's belt for bathroom breaks or transfers. I admit that I don't have a lot of knowledge of what wheelchair bound CCW carriers do for carry that works--I don't go up to people in wheelchairs and ask them, "Hey, do you carry a firearm and how do you carry it?"--but there was a guy I knew back in my college days who carried a small pistol and he preferred a fanny pack.
• "Resistance is Never Futile" by Mark Hatmaker, Indigenous Ability. This is a great mindset article that addresses those that are unsure about using force to resist a predator. The author begins:

    Should you always fight back? Yes. “But what if…”

   Over the course of many years teaching survival-based strategies and tactics the above-exchange has taken place more than a few times. The “but what if…” question is usually posed by well-meaning individuals who haven’t quite grasped the seriousness of physical violence. These are people whose own humanity, whose sense of civility is so strong that they are caught vacillating between fight or flight decisions. It is a shame that these good qualities can sometimes stand in the way of grasping the essential facts of just how dire the threat can be.

    He addresses a couple specific situations that might cause you to vacillate between resisting or acquiescing to the attacker. The first is where the criminal promises that if you cooperate, he (or she) won't harm you. But Hatmaker asks the reasonable question of why should you trust that person? The reality is that you can't. Because of their actions, they are inherently untrustworthy.

    The second is the person that won't resist because they think the situation will not get worse: e.g., the carjacking won't lead to an abduction or murder.  "To gamble on kindness and choose inaction," he explains, "gets you hurt or killed if the situation escalates, while on the other hand, gambling that all who have stepped outside the dictates of civilized conduct intend to do you bodily harm keeps you primed, prepared, and is most likely the correct guess."

• "The Goose and Gander – Why Military Gear Isn’t The Best Option" by Travis Pike, Gat Daily. This article focuses on rifle gear; specifically the optic and the lights. Pike offers two examples to illustrate his point. The first is the ACOG, which while he admits is a good optic, he questions why anyone would spend $1,200 on a fixed 4x optic with terrible eye relief and a small field of view when you could get a much better LPVO for the same or less? The other is the white lights mounted to the military rifles which are underpowered and nowhere near as good as the Cloud Defensive, Modlite, and Arisaka lights available to the civilian shooter. He concludes:

    You and I don’t have to change gear slowly. We can buy it on Amazon without a process, have it shipped to us, learn on Youtube how to use it, and hit the range all in the same day. Keep that in mind when you’re considering if something is worth purchasing just because the military adopted it. Mission drives gear selection, and you’ll need to see what your mission will be and choose gear based on that rather than what Uncle Sam swipes his credit card for.

    To me, if the military adopts it, I know it’s likely durable, especially if it’s issued to 18-year-old grunts. Those guys can break anything. This is all not to say there isn’t any crossover, but just choose the gear that fits you.

•  VIDEO: "Have We Learned Nothing? (You're Training Wrong for SHTF)"--STOKERMATIC (14 min.). 

Although this video also addresses the topic of "what is good for the military may not be good for you," he is approaching the issue from the point of view that you may not want to dress in full military kit after a SHTF event for reasons ranging from not revealing your full capabilities to trying to avoid being targeted by government (or other forces) to trying to blend in.

    This is something I've thought about off and on over the years.  My wife and I have a couple of older, but still very nice Osprey backpacks in somewhat subdued red and blue colors, respectively. Not something that you might consider very good for survival and SHTF and I've thought about replacing them with something in a camo pattern (or at least a bland coyote color)--something more tactical! But I've never made the switch for a few reasons. The first, and most obvious, is cost. Good gear cost a lot of money. The packs I have are reasonably good quality, even surviving my oldest boy going through Boy Scouts (he used my wife's pack when he was younger and smaller and then my pack when he was older and taller). 

    Second, if my goal is surviving generally, I have to be concerned about maybe being found by search and rescue. I'm sure that they would be able to see a somewhat brightly colored backpack better than one in black, coyote/FDE, or a camo pattern. I could probably find or make camo pack covers if I thought it necessary.

    Third, as I was moving and sorting some of my "tactical" gear one day, I started thinking about the issue of what I would do if, post-SHTF and without warning, I encountered someone in camo and fully kitted out on my property. Essentially, it is the question of who would you shoot first: the guy in normal jeans or slacks, normal shirt or jacket, etc., or the guy in full camo with helmet, a chest rig and armed with a rifle? 

• "Canned Food That’s Best For Survival Storage"--Modern Survival Blog. The article particularly focuses on foods that are calorie dense and high in protein (and fat): i.e., foods that are canned meat or contain meats.
• "Romanian AKs: The Best Among The Worst, The Worst Among The Best" (Part 1) (Part 2) (Part 3) by Vladimir Onokoy, The Firearm Blog. A good history and review of Romanian AKs including their use outside of Romania.
• "How to Recondition Old Gasoline on Your Own" by Tom Marlowe, The Survivalist Blog. An excerpt:

    This might be a surprise to some readers, and especially to beginning preppers, but gasoline can in fact expire.

    Now, to be really technical it doesn’t expire in the same way that food in our pantry or refrigerator expires, by going rancid, but it does go bad over time for a couple of different reasons.

    One of these reasons is that the volatile compounds that make gasoline a usable fuel begin to oxidize and lose potency.

    Very literally, this means the gasoline provides less “pop!” The other way that gasoline goes bad is specific to modern gasoline-ethanol blends, the typical stuff you get at your local gas pump.

    The two components are very much like oil and water, and over time they will separate, permanently ruining the fuel.

    Either of these outcomes can be a showstopper if you are depending on your stored gasoline in an emergency, but for our purposes it is only possible to reverse a loss of potency by oxidation, or to potentially halt or slow the separation of components in gasoline-ethanol blends.

    But, the first step in the reconditioning process is determining whether or not the gasoline can be saved in the first place.

    Trying to recondition gasoline that is too far gone is just throwing away good money after bad, and will still likely wind up damaging your engine. The next section will help you figure that out.

• I sometimes joke here or on John Wilder's podcast about cannibalism post-SHTF and so was amused seeing this article at the Daily Mail not too long ago: "What does human meat taste like? Scientists reveal the unique flavour of our FLESH – as an influencer admits to eating part of her own knee in a spaghetti bolognese." An excerpt:

    Back in the 1920s, American adventurer William Buehler Seabrook set out to provide a detailed record of the societies that devour human flesh.

    He even went so far as to taste it himself when he met with the Guero people in West Africa, and wrote of his experiences in his book 'Jungle Ways', published in 1931. 

    The explorer noted that the raw flesh looked like beef but less red and with pale yellow fat. 

    And, once cooked, it turned grey and smelled like beef.

    As for the taste, he wrote: 'It was so nearly like good, fully developed veal that I think no person with a palate of ordinary, normal sensitiveness could distinguish it from veal.'

    Seabrook's account is regarded as unreliable by many, because he later confessed Guero tribesmen refused to let him take part in their tradition.

    He claimed he made up for the disappointment by obtaining a chunk of flesh from the body of a dead hospital patient in France and cooking it on a spit.

    But experts regard his description as the most useful, because most commentaries on cannibalism come from the criminally insane and are often contradictory.

• "Study: Devoted Leftists Often Are Narcissists and Psychopaths"--The New American. You might be wondering why I am including this article in a list of articles ostensibly for preppers and survivalists. And the answer is that if you are forming a prepper group or, post-SHTF, thinking of taking in a few people, you will need to screen them to determine if they would be suitable for your group or safe to admit to your home during trying times. And let's be honest: some of the worst people you could have in your group would be narcissists or psychopaths because of their lack of in-group loyalty. 
• "World War Two Firearm Quals" by Travis Pike, Gat Daily. A look at the qualifications required by the Army for the 1911 pistol, the M3 submachine gun, and the M1 carbine. 
• "Emergency Dental Kit and Remedies"--Modern Survival Blog. A look at a few tooth pain remedies and a lost filling or loose cap repair kit available on Amazon. (See also my post on "Dentist In A Box").
• "Field Report: Taurus 856 T.O.R.O."--The Revolver Guy. The TORO is a revolver specifically designed for mounting a red-dot. 
• "Guns being stolen out of cars is a disturbing trend happening in Meridian"--KIVI Channel 6. This is a local news story that ran almost 2 months ago here. From the lede:

    There has been a 42 percent increase in car burglaries so far this year in Meridian, but the disturbing trend is that in about a quarter of those a gun has been stolen.

    This year Meridian Police has received 44 reports of car break-ins and out of those 12 have had guns taken, 10 of those were from unlocked vehicles.

I often see or hear of stories like this from all around the country. And it isn't just regular gun owners. I was thinking about writing an article on this topic once and came across about a half-dozen news articles from just the prior few months where it involved thefts of firearms from police cars or private vehicles owned by police officers. Jon Low often touches on this topic. The basic thing to remember is that your car is not a gun safe so don't be storing your weapons in your car.  

Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 92 (Streamed 6/28/2023)

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 92" (42 min.)

I had to miss because of a family obligation, but no reason for you to miss out on the fun.

No Short Shorts For SHTF

For those old enough to remember, the 1970s and '80s was the era of the short shorts. Just typing the words reminds me of the old Nair ads....

And shorter shorts weren't just limited to women. Athletic shorts and swimwear worn by men at that time were also shorter and tighter than is common now. A good example of this are the shorts worn by the Rhodesian Selous Scouts:

And these were the more modest ones!

    Of course fashions change. Bermuda shorts became more popular and it wasn't long until the modern cargo shorts made their appearance. And for a lot of men--myself included--cargo shorts are the standard go-to for outdoor wear in the summer. The reasons are obvious: they are cooler and provide more freedom of movement.

    But are shorts, even the longer cargo shorts of today, actually a good idea for dangerous environments? "No!" according to this article by Don Shift at American Partisan. Although shorts can have some advantages (and he discusses some of the advantages cited by former Selous Scout members) he notes that as the Selous Scouts transformed from true scouts primarily involved in tracking and became more of a light infantry force, even they abandoned their shorts for long pants (trousers for my British readers) because of the greater protection offered by pants. In fact, going to the opposite extreme, he observes that military units operating in the Brazilian Caatinga desert, which is filled with spiny and thorny plants, wear "tough, full-bodied denim uniforms reinforced with leather complete with gloves."

    Shift mentions concerns about snake bites, biting insects, cuts from pushing through brush or from thorny plants, or even scraps from suddenly having to go prone on a rocky surface. All of these could result in infections which, in an austere setting without access to medical care and antibiotics (such as we might find ourselves in a SHTF environment), could become quite serious or deadly. 

    "Post-SHTF," he writes, "it could be major diseases, including 'exotic' ones imported by the foreigners pouring across our undefended southern border. Imagine going prone on a rocky surface in a firefight and surviving unscathed, aside from a bloody abrasion to the knee, only to die in a few weeks from septic shock."

    And I have to concur. For just walking around in the open, shorts are great. But just working around my property, kneeling on the ground for some gardening, working among tall grass or cutting up brush, I've received scratches and bug bites when wearing shorts. Mowing while wearing shorts has also gained me a few cuts from the occasional rock or twig thrown out from under the mower. The ground where I often go shooting is covered with some sort of small thorny plant that, while not big enough to cause any significant bleeding if you kneel on them with exposed skin, are certainly enough to introduce contaminants or microorganisms. Some of the land in that same area have large amounts of exposed volcanic rock that would definitely tear up knees if you had to go prone. Ditto for going prone on a driveway, sidewalk, or similar. 

    Shift also points out that shorts (or exposed skin in general) are at risk from sunburn or even excessive heat:

Shorts may feel comfortable up to a point, but if it’s too hot, like over 100°, exposed skin is letting the heat in. If you visit Las Vegas or Phoenix, you’ll notice police officers wearing full length sleeves even in 115° heat. Yes, sunscreen has reduced the need for covering the skin in the summer sun, but heat control is more important in very high temperatures. One could always compromise (especially if there is a breeze) by wearing lightweight, but long sleeves.

Another article explains:

One reason behind this has to do with our sweat. Sweat is a natural bodily cooling mechanism, and long sleeves in a sweat-wicking fabric keep your skin drier than a short sleeve shirt. Long sleeves provide airflow between the fabric and your skin, almost like a wind tunnel keeping you even cooler. Additionally, the fabric on the sleeve provides a bit of shade to your skin that short sleeves do not. 

I have family members that are prone to sunburns, so they mostly stick to long sleeve shirts (although longer shorts or capri style pants seem less of an issue). If I'm getting clothing for outdoor wear, I try and watch for those that advertise their UPF rating. 

    While I generally see UPF ratings for shirts and hats, I don't know that I've ever seen (or noticed) pants with UPF ratings. But they exist, as a quick Google search revealed. But if you are just going to stick to denim pants, they have a UPF rating as high as 1700 (!) and will essentially block all UV according to this article (long sleeve denim shirts provide similar protection). Lightweight cotton or polyester fabrics may have very low UPF ratings--less than the 30 recommended by experts. And because darker or bright colored fabrics offer more UV protection than white or light colored fabric--and some UV fabrics use chemicals to boost their protection--be aware that the UPF can decline over time as the fabric is washed or fades. 

    In short (ha, ha!) shorts are fine for casual summer wear. But not for cleaning up after a disaster, hunting, or fighting off looters after SHTF. And just another reminder that you need to match your clothes to your environment and situation. 

For My Boise Area Readers: "Bureau of Land Management reports high number of shooting related fires"

 A local news channel is reporting that the "Bureau of Land Management reports high number of shooting related fires." This is an example of the misinformation we get from the media and/or government. 

The area where fire investigators believed the Black Fire was sparked had multiple rounds of shells from shotguns, full and empty beer cans with bullet holes, and trash.

They don't actually say that the fire was caused by a firearm, only that the fire started in proximity to the husks of shotguns shells and beer cans with bullet holes and trash (the latter of which may or may not have been from shooters). The fire could have been caused by grass contacting a hot muffler on a vehicle, a discarded cigarette, a piece of glass that sufficiently focused the sunlight, or other reasons completely unrelated to a firearm. And unmentioned is that the largest fire in that general area over the past several years was caused by people that had been "camping" there for several months, not shooters or hunters. But the inference we are intended to draw is that the fire was the result of firearms because "guns are bad".  

    Unfortunately, fires like these just give the BLM another excuse to limit shooting on BLM land. The article continues:

    “This year we have definitely seen an uptick in shooting-related fires. We have a fire prevention order in place from May 10 to October 20 on BLM grounds in Idaho that prevents the use of ignitionary devices, steel core ammunition, tracer ammunition, exploding targets, and shooting at metal targets,” says Jablonski.

    If people are found violating the order in place, they could be charged a fine of up to $100,000, as well as suppression costs.

And during the winter and spring months, the roads are generally too muddy to be passible to even most four wheel drive vehicles; and the vehicles that can make it through the mud generally destroy the roads to such an extent that the roads are largely impassible even when they finally dry out. So a win-win for the anti-gun BLM.

Some Recent Roundups Of Gun Articles ...

 ... from Greg Ellifritz of Active Response Training (June 16, 2023) (June 23, 2023); and, from Jon Low at Defensive Pistolcraft (June 5, 2023) (June 16, 2023).

    Also a reminder from Jon Low:

In America, you get as much justice as you can afford.  You must have a powerful politically connected attorney from an established firm with deep connections in the legal community.  You want all charges dismissed.  You don't want a trial.  Do you have the ability to generate the hundreds of thousands of dollars for legal fees when the need arises?  If not, you must have an insurance policy.  

If you don't believe his comments about getting as much justice as you can afford and a politically connected attorney, go review the recent news articles of Hunter Biden's treatment by the DOJ for firearms violations and influence peddling and think of how it would have been different for you.

VIDEO: 10 Tips EVERY BACKPACKER Should Know To Cook On Trail

VIDEO: "10 Tips EVERY BACKPACKER Should Know To Cook On Trail"--

Homemade Wanderlust (12 min.)

Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 91 (Streamed June 22, 2023)

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 91" (56 min.)

Transferred Intent And Self Defense

 An interesting piece at Legal Heat on the issue of transferred intent in a defensive shooting entitled "Are You Liable for a Passthrough or Missed Shot?" (H/t Active Response Training). The author addresses the following question:

Imagine you are walking down the street late at night when suddenly a criminal violently attacks you with a knife. Fearing for your life you draw your weapon and fire 3 quick shots, stopping the threat and saving your life. Once the threat is neutralized, however, you realize one of your shots missed your intended target and struck an innocent bystander in the leg, causing him severe harm. Assuming you are otherwise justified in defending yourself, can the innocent bystander sue you? Will you lose that lawsuit?

The author's answer is "no" but "[t]he lawsuit against you will be dismissed and will need to be brought against the attacker with the knife. You are free from liability under the doctrine of transferred intent." He explains: 

The simple reason is that the shooter (self-defense actor) was not the proximate cause of the harm to the innocent bystander. Although that may seem counter intuitive to say (given he was the one who actually fired the gun), it was in fact the attacker with the knife who caused the bystander harm.

He cites a case explaining the principle as well as quoting from a couple treatises so be sure to read the whole thing and, if you are able, check his sources. 

    This is a subject that I've mentioned a couple times in the context of why criminal charges or indictments might not have been brought in a couple of specific cases (see here and here). I would also remind you that a valid defense does not mean that you won't be charged with a crime or sued, or won't have to go to trial, racking up attorney's fees along the way. And, as always, I am not your attorney and this is not legal advice.

Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 90 (Streamed June 14, 2023)

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 90" (48 min.)

Hiking Photo

Just a photo from a recent hiking excursion. Normally I don't share my own photos, but I thought this one turned out okay although it doesn't quite capture how dark were the clouds. We were fortunate that the thunder storm passed to the north of us, and we apparently missed a rain storm a few miles to the south of us. We weren't trying to force our way through the foliage: this is just a view off one side of the trail. 

    This was actually my first time carrying my S&W Model 317 "Kit Gun" on an actual hike. The delay was mostly due to trying to track down a Kydex holster to use with the pistol. The 317 is a J-frame revolver and so I expected that it would fit the Kydex holster I have for my Model 638 since it is also an aluminum framed J-frame revolver. Nope. There was just enough difference between the frames that I could not get the 317 to fully insert into the holster. And tracking down someone that made a Kydex holster specifically for the 317 was more difficult than I thought it would be. But I finally found one manufactured and sold by Speed Beez. And it shipped pretty quick too. Anyway, the holster worked well--it held the weapon securely and wasn't uncomfortable, and no leather to collect the moisture from the sweat or humidity. And because it was specifically for the 317 Kit Gun--which has a longer barrel than my snubby--the barrel was covered and protected its entire length. 

    The 317 was also so lightweight (I think it is lighter than the holster) that it was not a distraction and didn't cause any backpain or make me have to tighten or readjust my belt. Sometimes with a leather belt and a heavy pistol, I will have to tighten my belt after walking for a period of time because it stretches the belt and/or the belt shifts a bit. 

Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 89 (Streamed June 8, 2023)

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 89" (50 min.)

In which we discuss the Russian's dam problem and much more

VIDEO: "Off Grid Winch: Making a Flip Flop Winch"

VIDEO: "Off Grid Winch: Making a Flip Flop Winch"--Survival Sherpa (12 min.)

How to make an improvised winch using two poles, two wood stakes, and some rope or chain. 

Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 88 (Streamed May 31, 2023)

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 88" (40 min.)

Demographic Collapse: Economic Burdens

I know that I harp a lot about collapsing birthrates--probably too much in some people's opinions--but it is an important topic and the response, at least in the West, has been to destroy our culture for the sake of importing foreign workers. 

    A few recent articles on the topic are:

• "The 'Population Explosion' Myth Blows Up" by Robert Spencer, PJ Media.
• "Low Population in 2050 for $50 Trillion Economic Loss – Over Ten Times More Than Climate Change" by Brian Wang, Next Big Future.
• "Japan's Old Age Crisis and Ours to Come" by Virginia Postrel. 

    Spencer's article is about how, notwithstanding the propaganda we've been exposed to our whole lives about "the population bomb", even major media outlets are finally being forced to admit that it was a lie. Writing on March 27, 2023, he relates:

    The UK’s far-Left Guardian admitted Monday that “the long-feared ‘population bomb’ may not go off, according to the authors of a new report that estimates that human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast.” The Club of Rome study, which was “carried out by the Earth4All collective of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School,” predicts that “on current trends the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then decline rapidly.” This being the Guardian, it added: “The peak could come earlier still if governments take progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels.”

    It’s jarring to read this. Population explosion hysteria has been a staple of education for decades, and there are no doubt millions of people who still take the idea that soon there will be many more people on earth than can possibly be fed as axiomatic fact. Americans have so internalized this belief that people with large families are guilt-tripped on a routine basis. I myself can remember being inundated with this propaganda in public school at all levels, although of course, no one recognized it as propaganda in those palmy days, as far back as the early 1970s. The population explosion myth became the basis for many of the Left’s other favored agendas, including the “climate crisis,” the bug-eating plan, and even the sexual revolution, which was in large part made possible by the contraception and abortion that we were told had to be readily available in order to try to bring the world’s population under control.

The next two articles discuss a bit more of what we can expect from shrinking populations.

    Wang's article approaches the issue from a purely economic perspective. He notes that the propaganda from our elites is that the greatest threat we face is from climate change.

In 2021, the World Economic forum called Climate change ‘most impactful risk facing the planet. The largest predicted economic losses of climate change are from models that predict a lot more storm damage. This is mainly worsening droughts, storms and torrential rain in some of the world’s largest economies could cause $5.6 trillion in losses to the global economy by 2050. This has not happened yet as the world has been experiencing $100-250 billion per year in such storm damage. The agricultural losses from climate change might be $330 billion in 2050 and this does not calculate the improved agricultural yields from warming conditions for Canada and other northern farmland.

This, however, is dwarfed by the economic losses caused by shrinking populations. He points out, for instance, that "[p]opulation loss from now to 2050 will cause about 20-30% in economic damage or about a $60 trillion in economic loss." He continues:

    China will be losing 10 million people per year from its working age population from 2027-2050. Japan will be losing 1 million people per year from its working age population from 2023-2050. The working age populations for China, Japan, Italy and Spain will be about 20-30% smaller in 2050 than today.

    Japan is going from 122 million people today to about 100 million people in 2050-2056. By 2050, its population could fall below 100 million, of whom 38.8% will be 65 or older. IF there was magic policy to double Japan’s birthrates then instead of a working age population of about 58 million in 2050, Japan could have 72 million working age people and a population of about 120 million.

I would point out that China may already be farther into the demographic hole than most people think (see my post, "VIDEO: 'China doesn’t have 1.4 billion people. Its population is under 1 billion.'"). But it isn't just an issue for China or Japan. Wang points out that "All of the developed countries except Israel have a total fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1." Most are well below replacement level.

    Postrel's article focuses on Japan and how it got to its current demographic emergency. She relates that it is primarily due to Japan's lax laws on abortion and birth control (I would argue that it was more because the Japanese lost their faith). She notes, for instance, that in 1948, the Diet passed the Eugenic Protection Law which made abortions both legal and cheap, and encouraged the use of contraception. It was successful in forestalling a population boom. She writes:

People over 75 now make up 15 percent of the population [in Japan], and they don’t have a lot of kids to take care of them. Japan’s postwar baby boom lasted only about two years. By contrast, the U.S. experienced high birth rates from 1946 to 1964.

The problem facing the Japanese, then, is:

a rapidly growing population of very old people without much family support. In some cases, the unshared burden of taking care of parents simply becomes too much, especially when the parent is a difficult character. In others, middle-age children—including increasing numbers of men—are quitting their jobs to take care of their parents. At the extreme are “lonely deaths,” or kodokushi, when people die alone and go unnoticed for days. (In some cases, the deceased elderly person was not alone but living with a person with dementia.) 

In other words, other potential workers are being removed from the labor force to take care of aging parents. She warns that this is America's future (and that of most other industrialized countries, for that matter). 

    Postrel, admitting that she is a childless spinster, acknowledges that she doesn't have a solution. I obviously don't know her particular situation and why she is childless, but I can say that women like her--urban and professional--are the problem. Giving up family roles to pursue careers. That is why female education is the biggest predictor of population decline, and why religiosity is the common trait among populations bucking the overall trend of declining populations. 

    I was recently reading a piece from Robert Zubrin entitled "A Declaration of Decadence" which began:

The French historian Fernand Braudel remarks in Out of Italy that “decadence” is what occurs in a civilization when it rejects the ideas and ideals responsible for its origin and growth.

And such is the case for declining birth rates: it is a rejection of the importance and role of being a wife and mother. Oswald Spengler touched on this in his work, The Decline of the West, with his complaints of the "Ibsen woman" (in reference to playwright Henrik Ibsen who featured works of, for that time, strong independent women who abandoned families to discovery their true selves) who might attend all the best plays and indulge in intellectual pursuits, but are barren and useless.