Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a recently discovered asteroid that potentially could strike the Earth (or the Moon) in 2032. The size of the asteroid is currently a matter of debate because, right now, the estimates are based on the reflection of the object. However, the ESA has indicated that "2024 YR4 could be 40 m [130 feet] across and very reflective, or 90 m [295 feet] across and not very reflective," adding that "the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid." But scientists will be using the James Webb telescope to make a better estimate of its size and course.
Originally, scientists believed that the asteroid had a 1% chance of striking the Earth in 2032, but this has been revised up to 2.3%. There is also a 0.3% chance it might strike the moon.
If it strikes the moon, "a potential impact by the giant space rock could create a crater hundreds of metres wide, ejecting debris into space" and "some debris from Earth’s neighbour might rain back onto the planet." Conversely, "a strike by YR4 [on the Earth] would cause roughly the same amount of damage as the Tunguska impactor, which laid waste to around 80 million trees in Siberia in 1908[.]"
Well, thankfully it will only destroy trees.
ReplyDeleteAccording to an article at Wired Magazine (https://www.wired.com/story/asteroid-2024-yr4/) "the asteroid should fall somewhere in a band of territory stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa."
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