World War III?

With Russia's conflict in Ukraine still dragging on with no end in sight, there are signs that Russia might consider taking parts of Estonia soon. From "Who Had 'World War III Starting in Estonia' on Their 2026 Bingo Card?" at PJ Media:

    Which brings us to today's news and Estonia, nicely summarized on X by Eric S. Raymond.

    "There are intelligence reports that Russia has been building hospital facilities" on the Estonia border, while "Russian border guards have been spotted shoring up the banks of the Narva River in exactly the way you would expect if you thought they were going to throw expedient military bridges across it."

    "Russian border guards have also removed a set of buoys in the river marking the Russian-Estonian border, sparking a formal protest from the Estonian government," Eric added, literally muddying the waters between the two countries.

    But here's where it gets truly disturbing: "The city of Narva, Estonia, sits at the Russian border, on the Narva river, opposite the zone where the Russians have declared a curfew for its inhabitants and a no-go zone for people who don't already live there."

    Narva is 87% ethnic Russian, a result of Russian colonization efforts in the Baltics, both during the Czarist and Soviet era. "Putin has claimed the right to intervene militarily to protect 'oppressed' ethnic Russians in the near abroad," Eric posted. "The invasion and annexation of Crimea [in 2014] was justified on these grounds."

I don't believe Putin would be doing this unless he believes that the U.S. blew its wad, so to speak, on Iran and would not be in a position to defend Estonia--which is a member of NATO--and is convinced that Europe would be incapable of defending or retaking Estonia. A paper from the Atlantic Council in February 2026, "Putin’s next move? Five Russian attack scenarios Europe must prepare for," similarly observes (footnotes omitted):

    The accession of Sweden and Finland as NATO’s newest members has fundamentally altered Russia’s security calculations in the Baltic and Nordic region. Should the war in Ukraine evolve into a prolonged frozen conflict, Russia will rearm its military in pursuit of Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions. He will seek opportunities to rebuild Russian prestige and recover former or disputed territories, improve Russia’s strategic posture, and test NATO’s resolve in Article 5 scenarios in which he assesses the chance of a robust Alliance response is low, or the chances of success at acceptable cost are high. As one expert notes, “Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities in the face of the West and considers a direct clash with the West highly probable, if not unavoidable.”

    The potential rewards for continued and successful Russian aggression in Europe include enhanced prestige for Putin’s regime, an improved geostrategic position along Russia’s periphery, delivery of a damaging and perhaps fatal blow to NATO, and the severing of the transatlantic link—all of which are powerful incentives. .... 

In the case of most European countries, Putin's assessment is probably correct. In fact, a lot of British men are saying they would not even be willing to fight to defend the U.K. (watch this Asmongold TV video), echoing what a 100 year old British WWII veteran said last year when he stated on British national TV that the sacrifice of him and his comrades and WWII was not worth it. That is the consequence when you import so many third world invaders that social capital collapses. 

    The country that should give Putin pause is Poland. Not only does Poland have greater military capabilities than Ukraine, but considerable public support for protecting Baltic allies--78% of Poles would support military action to protect the Baltic states from Russia according to a recent poll.