Hopefully This Means That Gas Prices Will Be Going Down

It looks like Trump won another game of "can't stump the Trump". From the National Review:

The news out of the Strait of Hormuz is pretty straightforward: The Islamic Republic of Iran has all but lost whatever control it once had over the maritime traffic flowing through that contested choke point. “Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February,” the Wall Street Journal reported. “Shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler.”   

I still question the value of the war, but its hard to argue with success. There is also this:

Iran is in a terrible position. Its currency is valueless. Its trade relationships are being severed. Its citizens and political officials cannot fly in or out of the country. Its political class is in a state of semipermanent revolt against the informal leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Protests are once again breaking out in Iran’s universities, despite the explicit threat represented by the hated Basij. And there are now credible reports of insurrectionary activity in outlying provinces such as Baluchistan, where at least one IRGC commander was killed in the fighting. 

In fact, the war is going so poorly for Iran that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is now urging American voters to vote for the Democrats this fall. To parody the message that Princess Leia left for Kenobi in R2D2, the IRGC's letter to Americans might as well read: "Help us Democrats, you're our only hope." 

    The war also gave the U.S. opportunities to try out new laser weapons against drones and cruise missiles. Conversely, it highlighted the failure of Chinese weapon systems. As Seoul Economic Daily noted back in March:

    Questions are mounting over the combat effectiveness of Chinese-made air defense systems deployed in Iran after they failed to intercept large-scale airstrikes by the United States and Israel. Analysts say the credibility of Chinese weapons systems will inevitably suffer, given that similar failures occurred in Venezuela. 

    According to Taiwan's Newtalk and Hong Kong's South China Morning Post on the 3rd, Iran deployed China's fourth-generation mobile radar YLC-8B alongside Russian air defense networks at key locations including the capital Tehran. China first unveiled the equipment at the 2016 Zhuhai Airshow, claiming it could detect U.S. F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters from 250 kilometers away.

    The Chinese-made long-range surface-to-air missile HQ-9B operated by Iran also failed to prove its capabilities. China has stated that this missile, with a range of 250 kilometers, features active radar guidance and infrared seekers capable of intercepting stealth aircraft even in electronic warfare environments. China also provided Iran with its indigenously developed Beidou satellite navigation system to replace U.S. GPS.

    However, combat results told a different story. While Israel scrambled some 200 fighter jets and the U.S. struck more than 1,000 targets with B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles, Iran failed to shoot down a single aircraft. Taiwan's FTV reported, citing experts, that despite Iran pouring enormous costs into Chinese radar systems, they failed to function properly during both last year's nuclear facility attack and this year's large-scale airstrikes.

    India's Times of India reported that analysts are investigating whether the Chinese air defense systems have technical defects or were simply overwhelmed by the sheer volume of the U.S.-Israeli coalition's offensive. Observers note that having failed to defend critical facilities, the systems will inevitably lose competitiveness in export markets.

    This is not the first combat failure for Chinese radar. In January this year, China's JY-27A radar in Venezuela also failed to detect U.S. military aircraft. China had emphasized the radar's stealth target detection capabilities and jamming resistance, but it failed to track aircraft deployed for the operation to arrest former President Nicolás Maduro. 

The performance of the Chinese systems were so bad that, according to an April 1 report from the Washington Times, China purged some of its defense officials:

    High-profile failures of Chinese weapons and military equipment in Iran and elsewhere have resulted in the disappearance — and likely purge — of several key military developers.

    Former State Department policymaker Miles Yu said Chinese military systems that were promoted as capable of detecting and deterring high-end threats, such as stealth aircraft, were ineffective against recent U.S. military operations.

    “These failures did more than undermine specific platforms, as they exposed the gap between China’s claims and its actual capabilities,” said Mr. Yu, a Washington Times columnist.

    Perhaps the most glaring shortfall involved China’s highly touted HQ-9B long-range air defense system that Tehran purchased in mid-2025, reportedly as part of an oil-for-weapons deal.

    The missiles and radar were deployed at key nuclear sites and other high-value military sites in Iran. They were part of a layered integrated air defense that included domestic defenses and the Russian Pansir-S1.

    The HQ-9B was supposed to be able to knock out aircraft and missiles, but it proved unsuccessful when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes wiped them out before attacking other major targets.

    The system’s JY-27A long-range, VHF-band 3D active phased array radar was built for early warning and purportedly capable of tracking stealth aircraft. 

    But when the first missiles and bombs were fired, the Chinese system proved ineffective. Its destruction was so successful that the U.S. military is now flying older B-52 bombers unthreatened in the Iranian skies despite those aircraft having a very large radar cross-section.