Gun & Prepping News #61

Just some gun and prepping related links that I thought interesting or useful:  

• "WHERE WE LIVE, WE CAN’T HAVE A GUN OR A KNIFE, SO WHY SHOULD I?"--Survival Centric. The question in the title should have actually ended with "... so why should I learn how to use them?" The answer being that even if citizens aren't permitted guns or knives, the criminals will have them; and if you successfully disarm an attacker, you might wind up with a firearm or knife in your hand and it probably would benefit you to know what to do with it. 
• Speaking of countries that don't allow their citizens to own firearms for self-defense: "The Slow-Building Panic as Global Authorities Realize Gun Control is Increasingly Futile is Real and It’s Spectacular"--Shooting News. More and better 3-D printed firearms designs are spreading.
• "Alternative Ammo: 6x45 vs. .223 Remington"--American Hunter.  6x45mm is a wildcat cartridge that takes a standard .223 case necked up to accept a .243/6mm bullet. The advantages are faster velocities for the same bullet weight, better BC, and a greater variety of bullets--and it all still fits in the same magazine as .223. 
• "Handguns: Bullet Design 101"--Shooting Illustrated. The author notes that in the 1990s there was still debate over whether handgun bullets merely wounded by poking holes in things, and others that argued that an expanding bullet would "dump" energy into the target and incapacitate it. We know now that the "energy dump" was a myth, but the author goes onto to explain why we still use expanding ammunition like hollow points: 

    The simplest reason usually given is that, all things being equal, a bigger hole is better than a smaller one. While this is technically true, it’s a drastic oversimplification of things. Most experts today concede that where the hole is on the target matters way more than a couple hundredths of an inch in diameter.

    Most vital structures in the human body don’t work any better with a .355-inch hole through them than they do with a .451-inch hole. Conversely, a 10 mm hole through a “love handle” of flab really isn’t any more disabling than a 6.35 mm one.

    One thing that expanding bullets do, however, is change the nature of the hole. Hunters had long preferred flat meplats (that’s the nose of the bullet) due to the way they tended to cut a hole with their sharper shoulders as opposed to round-nose bullets that just kind of politely elbowed their way past vital structures with their rounded ogives. Think of using a hole punch and the little discs of paper it cuts out. When a hollow-point bullet expands, it now has a very large, flat frontal area with jagged edges that greatly increase its effectiveness.

• "Optimal Alignment"--Shooting Illustrated. From the lede: "Shooters who want to hit a point-of-impact (POI) based on point-of-aim (POA) align the muzzle with the target—that is getting the barrel’s axis, sights/optic, and trajectory to the same place at the same time—can apply eight pro tips geared to optimize their alignment." The author goes on to cover the eight tips. 
• "Preventing Unintentional Discharges with a Revolver"--Tactical Professor. 

 When you decide to dry practice or do maintenance on your revolver, get them before doing anything.

1.  Take the live cartridges out.
2.  Count and secure them in the twist knob Speedloader. If there are any empty holes left in the speedloader, the FBI calls that ‘a clue.’
3.  Put the SafeSnap™ Training Disc in the revolver.
4.  Do your dry practice or maintenance.
5.  When finished, don’t reload the gun.
6.  Do something else to occupy your mind and remove dry practice from your thoughts.
7.  When you do reload, say “This gun is loaded” out loud three times.

• "Fudd Friday: Does Fitz Equal Fudd?"--The Firearm Blog.  Back in the 1920s before major manufacturers started offering snub-nosed versions of their duty pistols (there were plenty of pocket sized revolvers around in smaller calibers) John Henry Fitzgerald would modify revolvers into what were called "Fitz Specials" which included shortening the barrel (and attaching a new front sight), bobbing the hammer, and removing the front half of the trigger guard. His reasoning for the latter modification: "men with large hands (like himself) wearing gloves in winter needed unobstructed trigger reach." Also:

 This wasn't just some guy with a Dremel and opinions. Fitzgerald wrote a book on defensive shooting in 1930, advocated for two-handed pistol technique before it was standard practice, and taught law enforcement agencies across the country. His influence on defensive handgunning is legit. Guys like Rex Applegate and Charles Askins - actual gunfighters, not Instagram operators - carried his modified revolvers and praised them publicly.

• Anyone heard of TacHelmet?  They are advertising Level IV helmets for inexpensive prices, including several for under $200. 
• "Cyelee WOLF0 Review: Is a $106 Pistol Red Dot Worth It?"--The Truth About Guns.  Based on the review, it sounds like a bargain: a metal body, glass (not polymer) lens, and shake awake feature. It is IPX7 rated, and the author left if submerged in water for 1/2 hour and it still worked. 
• "Back to the days of the Remington Nylon 66"--Range Hot. "The Nylon 66 was produced from 1959 to 1987 and became Remington’s most popular selling .22 rifle ever," the author relates. It goes into the history and development of this rifle. 
• "Rifleman Review: Walther Arms PD380"--American Rifleman. Walther's polymer .380, DA/SA pistol. 
• "Surefire Warden Blast Can: Great for the Range"--The Mag Life.  This is what is commonly termed a linear compensator. The idea is to direct the gases and muzzle blast forward of the weapon while still giving you the benefits of a muzzle break. This particular one is stainless steel with a non-reflective black Cerakote finish and seems longer than most. The author relates, however:

 The first thing you’ll notice when running the Warden is a significant reduction in the blast and flash from the muzzle. The traditional fireball you get with standard muzzle brakes is no more, which was a pleasant surprise. I haven’t tried using the Warden for low-light training yet, but I’d be willing to bet it’s a game-changer for home defense scenarios, as you wouldn’t be temporarily blinded by the flash. That’s the major complaint I have about traditional muzzle brakes. While they can certainly improve your accuracy potential and lighten the load on your shoulder a bit, they’re really more of a liability in home defense applications.

• "No One Is Talking About The Direct Pipeline From Divorced Parents To School Shooters"--The Federalist. Given the well documented association between homes presided over by a single mother and negative outcomes for children, including increased propensity to be involved in violent crimes, the author argues that "the prevalence of divorce ensures we’ll have higher levels of violence than if we made obtaining divorces more difficult." 
• "Grand jury declines to indict man in shooting that killed teen at Kentucky State University"--New York Post. 

    Bard’s attorneys say the family was moving their younger son out, with two armed campus police officers present, after withdrawing both sons from school because of “multiple armed, violent” incidents against them and other students in the days leading up to Dec. 9, some captured on security cameras.

    When the family and an officer reached the dormitory entrance on the move-out day, the group of people in masks and hoods rushed out and began violently assaulting the family and others, including beating the son’s head against the pavement, the attorneys said. 

According to the article there were between 20 and 30 attackers. Bard wound up having to shoot two of them, killing one and critically wounding another. It's a sad state of affairs that the prosecutor even bothered with taking this to a grand jury instead of ruling it justified in the first place. 

• "Review: My Favorite Headlamp | The SureFire Minimus"--The Truth About Guns. The author states: "Starting with probably the most important feature, the SureFire Minimus offers a sensible output range from 5 to 300 lumens, adjustable across 13 preset levels via a knurled control knob that can be turned and felt even with thick gloves on." It also employs a metal body, but it doesn't have a true red-light diode, but uses a red filter over the white light, which either must be snapped on to use, or carried in a pocket or something when not in use. For $269, it does seem underwhelming.  The only real advantage I see to it is the ability to adjust it with a knob while using gloves. 
• "Bear & Son 112A Framelock Assisted Opener Knife," by Thomas Christianson at Survival Blog. The author writes:

The knife is 4 inches long closed and 6.75 inches opened. It has a flipper lever and dual thumb studs to enable ambidextrous, one-handed opening. The assisted-opening blade snaps decisively into place when deployed. The flipper works so effectively that the thumb studs are largely redundant, and could probably be eliminated. The rugged frame-lock holds the blade securely open when deployed. 

And:

 The 112A features what is called “assisted blade deployment”. (Some other knifemakers use the synonymous term “assisted opening”.) The user begins to open the blade using the flipper or thumb studs. At that point, a spring engages to rotate the blade into the fully opened and locked position. Assisted blade deployment is rapidly gaining popularity, here in the United States.

MSRP is about $60. 

• "How to Clean Hiking Boots: A Step-by-Step Guide"--SHTF Preparedness. As the author observes, "[k]eeping your hiking boots clean is essential for keeping them comfortable, supportive and long lasting." The article actually starts with some recommendations for selecting a pair of hiking boots before moving on to how to clean them and offering advice on storage, conditioning leather uppers, making minor repairs to the uppers, and other maintenance and cleaning tips. 
• "Basic Long-Term Food Storage"--Self-Reliance.com. As the author points out, "Long-term food storage plays a pivotal role in emergency preparedness. A homestead pantry is not for hoarders, it is for smart, organized people who want to keep their well-being intact in times of crisis." The article goes different categories of items to keep in long-term storage with comments on each. As an example, addressing eggs and milk, the author writes:

Dry milk is the most essential because milk provides many vitamins and nutrients which would be helpful to stay healthy during hard times. Not to mention, without a reliable source of dairy products many meals wouldn’t be possible. I’ve seen numerous survival sites list outrageous amounts of dry milk to keep on hand, and nothing is wrong with large quantity. We go through about a gallon each week with my family cooking heavily from scratch. It takes around four cups of dry milk to make a gallon of milk. This means that for a year’s supply we should have around 55 pounds of dry milk in storage. One of the cheapest ways to acquire dry milk is to get it in large boxes from stores like Walmart and then repackage it for long-term storage in glass jars. It should keep for several years this way, especially if you use an oxygen absorber. You can also buy it in #10 cans from emergency preparedness retailers. I like to keep several cans of canned milk on our pantry shelves for when I put together a quick casserole. They are usually found on sale during the holidays. 

• "What To Do If You’re Trapped In Your Car"--Urban Survival Guide.  Some advice if you find yourself stuck in your car for a long period of time, such as getting stuck in a major traffic jam or caught in a blizzard that strands you on the road. 
• "21 Famous Survival Experts You Should Know"--Modern Survival Online. Some on the list are of historical interest because of their incredible survival stories, but most are (or should be familiar) because of their television series, YouTube channels, and/or books. 
• "NASA Thinks They Can Give us 30 Minutes of Warning Before a Killer Solar Storm Hits Earth"--Universe Today.  This 2023 article described how recently developed AI algorithms made it possible to more quickly predict what solar storms could knock out power or cause other disruptions.

December 8 Solar Storm Caused Radio Blackout In Australia

Space.com reports:

    The sun erupted with a powerful X1.1-class solar flare in the early hours of this morning (Dec. 8), briefly knocking out radio communications across Australia and parts of southeast Asia.

    The impulsive eruption, which peaked at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT), came from sunspot region AR4298 as it makes its way towards the sun's western limb. It will rotate out of view in the next couple of days.

    A coronal mass ejection (CME) — a plume of plasma and magnetic field — was hurled into space alongside the eruption. However, early analyses of satellite coronagraph imagery suggest this CME is not Earth-directed.   

 This follows a similar incident on November 30. 

Solar Impact on Airbus Aircraft

 The BBC reports that "[e]arlier this week, thousands of Airbus planes were grounded for a software update after it was discovered that intense solar radiation could interfere with onboard flight control computers." 

    That issue was discovered after a plane travelling between the US and Mexico suddenly lost altitude as a result of the vulnerability, injuring 15.

    More than 6,000 Airbus aircraft needed emergency computer updates in one of the largest ever aviation industry interventions.

X-Class Flare Disrupted Radio Signals In Australia

 Space.com reports that on Sunday, the Sun unleashed "a strong X1.9-class solar flare that briefly knocked out radio communications across Australia and parts of southeast Asia." 

    The eruption, which peaked at around 9:49 a.m. EST on Nov. 30 (0249 GMT Dec. 1) came from a newly emerging sunspot region AR429 as it rotated into view over the sun's northeastern limb.

    The flare triggered a strong (R3) radio blackout across the sunlit side of Earth at the time of the eruption. 

In other news of Earth-Sun interactions, "A Strange Zig-Zagging Solar Phenomenon Just Appeared Near Earth." 

    For the first time, researchers have detected a magnetic “switchback” right here near Earth. A switchback is a zigzag twist in magnetic field lines once thought to occur only in the sun’s superheated outer atmosphere. The unexpected discovery is a bit like finding out a rare deep-sea creature also lives in your local lake.

    The findings, published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, don’t just expand the map of where these magnetic oddities appear. It hints that Earth’s magnetic bubble may be more tightly linked to the sun than scientists realized.

    “This structure meets the criteria for a magnetic switchback, a phenomenon frequently observed in the solar wind,” said the research team in the study. 

VIDEO: Discussion of the Tsunami Simulation

In this video, Ben Davidson discusses the tsunami simulation video from the other day. The first part of the video is just the tsunami simulation as shown earlier--the discussion starts just after the 3 minute mark. 

 VIDEO: "The Tsunami Simulation - Discussion"
SpaceWeatherNews (S0) (9 min.)

This Year's Strongest Flare Triggers Radio Blackout In Europe And Africa

There was an X5.1 class flare yesterday (Tuesday) morning--the strongest of the year.  According to UPI, it "triggered radio blackouts on the African and European continents and disrupted high-frequency communication on Earth's sunlit part." The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) described the resultant coronal mass ejection as "quite energetic" and stated that it was the "fastest" CME observed so far from the sunspot group region. "It was the latest in a series of other large flares that took place Sunday and Monday," according to the UPI article.

Geomagnetic Storm Warning

"Officials issued an alert today around 12pm  ET, warning that the incoming solar activity could trigger a severe geomagnetic storm, reaching the G4 level on NOAA's scale," reports the Daily Mail. The US Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted a G2 level solar storm today, a G4 tomorrow (Wednesday), and a G3 on Thursday. 

    The solar storm scale runs from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme).  A G4 is considered "severe" and could result in "[p]ossible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid." Also: "Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)."

Solar Storm Warning

The Daily Mail reports:

A powerful solar storm is currently striking Earth, disturbing the planet's magnetic field and putting power grids, satellites and GPS systems across the US at risk 

The major G3 geomagnetic storm started late Wednesday night and is expected to linger throughout Thursday over the northern US, according to forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

While the storm's effects peaked between 1.27am and 2am ET this morning, NOAA noted that the solar event is still at G2 strength heading into Thursday afternoon.  

Huge Solar Storm 14,375 Years Ago

 Science Alert reports that "The Most Violent Solar Storm Ever Detected Hit Earth in 12350 BCE." The article begins:

    A huge cosmic event some 14,300 years ago was so powerful, it left a discernible mark on our planet.

    In the partially fossilized trunks of ancient trees, and excavated cores of millennia-old ice, scientists have found evidence that suggests some sort of massive space event took place in around 12350 BCE.

    New work using a specially developed climate-chemistry model called SOCOL:14C-Ex clinches it. The culprit behind the huge particle influx during that time was a giant event from the Sun, pelting Earth with particles in the biggest geomagnetic storm we have on record.

    "Compared to the largest event of the modern satellite era – the 2005 particle storm – the ancient 12350 BCE event was over 500 times more intense, according to our estimates," says space physicist Kseniia Golubenko of the University of Oulu in Finland.

And this article at Watts Up With That, "ICE AGE SOLAR STORM SHOCK: Trees Hold 14K-Year-Old Secret That Could CRASH Tech Today!", provides some more context:

    The record-strong storm is described by a paper in the upcoming July 2025 edition of the peer-reviewed journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. It occured in 12,350 BC and is classified as a “Miyake Event.”

    Miyake Events are solar storms that make the Carrington Event of 1859 look puny. Trees “remember” them in their rings, which store the carbon-14 created by gargantuan storms. At least six Miyake Events have been discovered and confirmed since Fusa Miyake found the first one in 2012. The list so far includes 664-663 BC, 774 AD, 993 AD, 5259 BC, 7176 BC, and 12,350 BC.

    The Miyake Event of 12,350 BC is especially intriguing. It appears as a carbon-14 spike in Scots Pine trees along the banks of the Drouzet river in France, with a matching beryllium-10 spike in Greenland ice cores. The event was global and, based on the size of the spikes, very big.

 And:

According to their paper, 12,350 BC is the biggest Miyake Event yet.  It produced a hailstorm of solar particles 500 times greater than the most intense solar particle storm recorded by modern satellites in 2005. During the 2005 event, an airline passenger flying over the poles might have received a year’s worth of sea-level cosmic radiation in just one hour. During the 12350 BC event, the same dose would have been received in a mere eight seconds.

Here is the link to the paper: "New SOCOL:14C-Ex model reveals that the Late-Glacial radiocarbon spike in 12350 BC was caused by the record-strong extreme solar storm." 

    I find the date to be interesting because it corresponds to the glacial termination at the end of the last Ice Age. The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University has this to say about the end of the last Ice Age and onset of the Younger Dryas:

    Around 15,000 years ago, the Earth started warming abruptly after ~ 100,000 years of an "ice age"; this is known as a glacial termination. The large ice sheets, which covered significant parts of North America and Europe, began melting as a result. A climatic optimum known as the "Bölling-Allerød" was reached shortly thereafter, around 14,700 before present [i.e., before 1950]. However, starting at about 12,800 BP, the Earth returned very quickly into near glacial conditions (i.e. cold, dry and windy), and stayed there for about 1,200 years: this is known as the Younger Dryas (YD), since it is the most recent interval where a plant characteristic of cold climates, Dryas Octopetala, was found in Scandinavia.

    The most spectacular aspect of the YD is that it ended extremely abruptly (around 11,600 years ago), and although the date cannot be known exactly, it is estimated from the annually-banded Greenland ice-core that the annual-mean temperature increased by as much as 10°C in 10 years.

X-Class Solar Flare--CME To Strike Earth Saturday

Normally I don't comment on these because they typically never amount to anything worthy of note. Nevertheless, on October 1, 2024, the Sun released a X7.1 flare--the second most powerful flare observed during the current solar cycle. "Radiation from Tuesday's supercharged flare bypassed Earth's magnetic shield, or magnetosphere," says LiveScience, "and ionized the upper parts of the upper atmosphere, creating a temporary radio blackout above large parts of the Pacific Ocean, including Hawaii." The flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is expected to strike the Earth on October 5 (although other sources say late afternoon on October 4). "When the CME hits our planet," LiveScience continues, "it will likely trigger a disturbance in the magnetosphere, known as a geomagnetic storm, that enables solar particles to penetrate deep into the atmosphere and trigger vibrant aurora displays at unusually low latitudes." It is predicted that the geomagnetic storm will be a G3 class storm.

    A G3 geomagnetic storm can have some impact on power systems: "voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices." Other impacts include "intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen at 50° geomagnetic latitude". As to the latter point, this storm may produce auroras as far south as Oregon and Illinois.

VIDEO: Solar Storms Can Be More Dangerous Than You Think

Although the Why Files delves into (and often debunks) the strange and mysterious, it also addresses more serious subjects from time to time. One of these is the following video that relates the Carrington Event of 1859 and discusses what would be the impact of a similar storm today.

VIDEO: "Solar storms: more dangerous than you think. Can we survive another Carrington Event?"

The Why Files (18 min.)

VIDEO: "The Disaster Cycle Is Marching On"

 

VIDEO: "The Disaster Cycle Is Marching On"--Suspicious Observers (13 min.)

It's only been about 6 months since Suspicious Observes began shipping Ben Davidson's book on the disaster cycle. Yet even in that short time period, a considerable number of papers have been published that support his theory and continue to show that the cycle is progressing. He goes over the new research confirming his theory.

VIDEO: "A Disaster is Coming" by Suspicious Observers

 

VIDEO: "A Disaster is Coming"--Suspicious Observers (13 min.)

In this video, Davidson lays out the timeline of events should we be subject to a micro-nova event--something that apparently is what darkened the star Betelgeuse recently. 

Is The Universe About To Smack Us Like A Fly?

Some of you may have seen the following article linked at Instapundit this morning: "New evidence our neighborhood in space is stuffed with hydrogen" from Phys.org.  The key part of the article for our purposes is this (underline added):

Measurements from NASA's New Horizons spacecraft are revising our estimates of one key property of the interstellar medium: how thick it is. Findings published today in the Astrophysical Journal share new observations that the local interstellar medium contains approximately 40% more hydrogen atoms than some prior studies suggested. The results unify a number of otherwise disparate measurements and shed new light on our neighborhood in space.

    There are a couple ways to view this article. One is that the prior estimates were wrong, and so this is just another example of how astronomers and cosmologists have grossly underestimated the amount of normal matter in the universe (and more proof that "dark matter" doesn't exist). 

    Another interpretation, however, is that the prior estimates were correct, but we have recently entered or are entering an area of space where the density of the intersteller medium has increased. 

    There could be various explanations for this, including that the solar system is transitioning through the edge of an ancient nova shell. But Ben Davidson of Suspicious Observers offers a more intriguing answer, particularly for those interested in End-Times prophecy. He has noted that based on the geological and climate data that our planet seems to suffer severe space weather or impact events on approximately 12,000 year cycles. That is, every 12,000 years or so, the Sun will undergo a period of super-flares and/or a micro-nova. An increasing number of repeating novas are being discovered, where a star will blow off material on periodic intervals, so it is not impossible that our star acts in the same manner over a longer time period. 

    Davidson's theory is that just as our Sun has waves of particles that propagate throughout the solar system, the same thing occurs on a galactic level, and that these waves propagate at a frequency of about 12,000 years. So, based on our planet's history, the last such occurrence of a micro-nova was 12,000 years ago, and that we should be heading into such a wave now. This is further supported, as he explains in the video below, by the fact that some of our nearby stars have become much more active recently. 

Check it out. He also has a much longer video explaining his theory.

Two More New Disaster Videos from Suspicious Observers

"Safe Zones | Disaster Series Follow-Up"--Suspicious Observers (13 min.)

"Extreme Weather | The Tipping Point"--Suspicious Observers (7 min.)

Two Different Takes On The Threat Posed By CMEs

You may not have realized it, but on July 23, 2012, scientists witnessed a massive flare and CME discharge from the Sun that was probably as big as that of the Carrington Event of 1859. As Modern Survival Blog notes, we missed bearing the brunt of the 2012 CME by 9 days, and "UC Berkeley research physicist Janet G. Luhmann and their colleagues reported their analysis of the magnetic storm, and determined that the huge outburst (of the July 23, 2012 CME) resulted in release energies equivalent to that of about a billion hydrogen bombs."

     The article goes on to discuss the dangers of CMEs. Quoting information provided by NASA:

      Extreme solar storms pose a threat to all forms of high-technology.

      They begin with an explosion–a “solar flare”—in the magnetic canopy of a sunspot.  X-rays and extreme UV radiation reach Earth at light speed, ionizing the upper layers of our atmosphere; side-effects of this “solar EMP” include radio blackouts and GPS navigation errors.

      Minutes to hours later, the energetic particles arrive.  Moving only slightly slower than light itself, electrons and protons accelerated by the blast can electrify satellites and damage their electronics.

      Then come the CMEs, billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to cross the Sun-Earth divide.

       Analysts believe that a direct hit by an extreme CME such as the one that missed Earth in July 2012 could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket.  Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps. 

The two primary effects of the CME, according to the article, will be the loss of the electrical grid and damage to electronics, and fires resulting from shorting or damaged electrical equipment or electronics.

     But will it be as bad as all of that? I came across the video embedded below ("Should We Fear The Next Big Solar Storm") at the Real Engineering channel on YouTube and it doesn't seem to paint such a scary picture. According to the video, the electrical currents set up in power lines from CMEs is due to the CME distorting and pushing on the Earth's magnetic field. As the field flux moves through power lines, it generates a DC electric current. There is a potential for damage to transformers, but there are also protective mechanisms that have been incorporated into the most vulnerable portions of the power grid in countries in the extreme north such as Finland and England. Also, because of satellites that are now in place to warn of solar weather, we would have up to an hour's warning which might allow the opportunity to preemptively shut down sections of the grid to protect against damage.

"Should We Fear The Next Big Solar Storm"--Real Engineering (13 min.)

    A 2018 article from CNET summarizes the most likely problems we face from a CME:

      The basic problem stems from electrical currents that solar storms generate in the Earth's ionosphere. Those, in turn, induce currents in the power grid that can lead to two unfortunate outcomes. One is voltage collapse — a type of power blackout that can affect entire electric grids. The other is transformer failure.

      Transformers change one voltage to another — increasing it for long-distance power transmission and decreasing it for household use. Solar storms could destroy power grid transformers, which can be as big as a house, cost more than $10 million and take 12 to 18 months to replace. It's one reason a science and engineering firm called Metatech warned in 2008 that a massive solar storm could cost the US economy between $1 trillion and $2 trillion and take four to 10 years to recover from.

      That projection is too dire, though, say transformer experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) as well as Scott Backhaus, an expert in grid resiliency at LANL.

      "Of the potential impacts, the one everybody is concerned about is a large power transformer overheating," says Backhaus. "What would probably happen before that would be voltage collapse."

      While not as devastating, voltage collapse can still cause regional problems. And the more widespread the blackouts, the harder a recovery becomes because broader outages require power plants to initiate a "black start": using their own power sources, like diesel generators, for the electricity needed to restart the whole plant.

      Solar storms cause other problems, too. Satellites beam navigation radio signals to everything from your phone and your car's sat-nav system to oil rigs and airplanes. Massive bursts of charged particles can hobble those services, as well as phone calls and internet data transfers.

      Space weather also can expose aircraft to high levels of radiation. The Earth's magnetic field ordinarily provides protection except near the north and south magnetic poles, but CMEs push that radiation down toward the equator. That means transcontinental flights that usually travel over a pole must detour to less direct routes.

The article also notes that, in addition to early warning from satellites, our power grid is becoming more resilient:

We're adapting our electrical grid in North America — helped politically by the fact that those fixes also help ward off attacks involving high-altitude nuclear weapon explosions. A 2016 rule, for example, requires utilities to test transformers for vulnerabilities to big disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and replace problematic hardware within four years.

Scientific American: "New Studies Warn of Cataclysmic Solar Superstorms"

Article here. Although the 1859 Carrington Event is considered to be the largest geomagnetic storm recorded, new research shows that the May 1921 "New York Railroad Storm" might have been even stronger. From the article:

       A new analysis published in Space Weather a month before Love’s paper, however, shows the effects of the 1921 New York Railroad Storm were just as severe, if not more so. Although the latter event gets its name from disruption to trains in New York City following a fire in a control tower on May 15, study author Mike Hapgood of Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in England found that the association between those occurrences and the storm was weak. But looking at previously overlooked written records, Hapgood noted that three major fires had erupted on the same day. One, sparked by strong currents in telegraph wires at a railroad station in Brewster, N.Y., burned the station to the ground. The second was a fire that destroyed a telephone exchange in Karlstad, Sweden, while the third occurred in Ontario.

      The 1921 event unfolded in two phases, unleashing an opening burst of disruption before intensifying into a full-fledged superstorm. In Karlstad, for instance, night-shift operators of the telephone exchange initially reported that their equipment was malfunctioning and had begun emitting smoke. After the smoke cleared, in the hours before dawn, electrical cables in the exchange erupted in flames, eventually setting the entire structure ablaze. By sunrise, the interior had burned to ashes.

      Hapgood’s research shows just how impactful the storm of 1921 really was—and not just in the U.S. and Sweden. Records from Samoa, which is not far from the equator, show that auroral displays were visible to observers even in this low-latitude locale. “It’s an astonishing observation,” Hapgood says. Auroras were also recorded near Paris and in Arizona, while telegraph systems and telephone lines were disrupted in the U.K., New Zealand, Denmark, Japan, Brazil and Canada. “[This storm] has got a period of earlier activity that caused some problems,” Hapgood says, “and then the next night, all hell broke loose,” as what began as a more modest event from the sun grew in strength to become far more disruptive.

A Monday Medley of Videos

"Extinction by Magnetic Shift | Confirmed in Top Journal"--Suspicious Observers (3 min).

Commentary on a paper accepted for publication by Reviews of Geophysics entitled "The role of geomagnetic field intensity in late Quaternary evolution of humans and large mammals." Key point: "About 40 thousand years ago, mammalian fossils in Australia and Eurasia record an important die‐off of large mammals that included Neanderthals in Europe. In the Americas and Europe, a large mammalian die‐off appears to have occurred ~13 thousand years ago. Both die‐offs can be linked to minima in Earth's magnetic field strength implying that UVR flux variations to Earth's surface influenced mammalian evolution."

"How To Pick A Lock With A TOOTHBRUSH!"--electronicsNmore (6-1/2 min.)

The author of this video shows how to modify an electric toothbrush into a vibratory lockpicking tool, as well as demonstrating its use.

"Colin Flaherty: Baltimore race riots get stranger and stranger" (12 min.)

More on the rioting and mobbing from a week ago. You might also want to check out this article from Paul Joseph Watson, "Police Video Shows Whites Being Targeted During Memorial Day Chaos in Baltimore."

"Kel Tec KSG"--Tactical Mischief (5 min)

A look at some methods to rapidly reload the KSG shotgun.

"How I Shoot With a Turkish Style Thumb Ring"--Backyard Bowyer (6 min.)

"How to Make a Simple Archer's Thumb Ring With PVC Pipe"--Backyard Bowyer (9-1/2 min.)

"Ford’s Delivery Robot Walks On Two Legs Like A Human"--Tech Insider (3 min.)

"Brexit at Dunkirk - WW2 - 040 - June 1 1940"--World War Two (12 min.)

The Major Solar Storm That Wasn't

Earlier this week, major media outlets were loudly proclaiming that Earth would be struck by a strong solar storm that would disrupt communications and electronics. Except there was no such storm. I commented at the time, based on those same articles, that the warnings were an example of the Chicken Little cries of "the sky is falling" because even the articles, when you dug into them, only admitted to an insignificant coronal mass ejection. But even that was incorrect: there simply was no storm. I won't attempt to explain why the media was so spooked over nothing (or, perhaps more correctly, wanted the public spooked over nothing), but I would direct you to these two videos showing how calm our star was at the time:

"NO SOLAR STORM COMING | Nonsense News March.14.2018"--Suspicious Observers (1 min.)

"Solar Impact Report, Snow, Magnetic Bubble | S0 News Mar.15.2018"--Suspicious Observers (3 min.)

Magnetic Pole Reversal

        I have generally tried to stay away from the magnetic pole reversal issue because I have not researched the matter, and, therefore, it is not easy for me to separate what is possible from the hyperbole. This has also meant that I have also not attempted to downplay any predictions as well. But National Geographic has published an article which is intended to downplay the threat of any dangers from a magnetic pole shift, and which I felt was worth a couple of comments. The article primarily argues that (1) any magnetic pole shift will not occur during our lifetime (so why worry?), and (2) the consequences will be minimal.

        The first issue I had with the article is that the author seems to confuse a magnetic pole shift (the north magnetic pole switching positions with the south magnetic pole) with a geographic pole shift (which would require that the Earth flip over like a spinning top). They are obviously two different concepts.

         Second, as noted, the author argues that there is no indication that a magnetic pole reversal will occur, and that even if there was, it would take a long time (1,000+ years). The Suspicious Observers YouTube channel posted a rebuttal to the National Geographic article, which, among other things, notes that the science is not settled on how long it would take for a magnetic pole reversal. It cites research from Berkeley that concluded that the last magnetic pole reversal--some 780,000 years ago--actually took place within a 100 year period. In addition, the channel's author noted that the Earth's magnetic field has been weakening for the last 150 years--most of it in recent decades--and that the rate at which the poles have been wandering has also accelerated. The obvious implication is that we might already be in the midst of a magnetic pole reversal.

         Third, the National Geographic author downplays the seriousness of a reversal. I don't know about whether it would end civilization as we know it, but the primary danger with a reversal is that for a period of time, perhaps decades, the Earth's magnetic field will be very weak. The consequence is that the Earth, and all life on it, will be exposed to more solar radiation and cosmic rays. Notwithstanding the author's explanation that the Earth's thick atmosphere will protect us, it won't--at least not entirely. The magnetic field is our primary shield against space weather--particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs) such as the Carrington Event.

        Finally, the National Geographic author downplays the effect on wildlife, suggesting that it will be harmless--a few birds temporarily losing their way, but which will quickly adapt. It will probably be much worse. Almost all migratory birds will be impacted and could end up wildly off course. Some species--those that migrate the furthest--may go extinct. After all, an error that might put a flock of geese a hundred miles off course flying from Canada down to the United States, might put British Swallows, who winter in southern Africa, off course by hundreds or thousands of miles. At least some whales also use biomagnetism to navigate, so it is possible that they might also become confused, resulting in massive beachings.

       In short, the National Geographic article needs to be taken with a grain or two of salt. Perhaps the article is correct that a magnetic pole reversal will not be the end of the world as we know it, but it also won't be a walk through the park.