Two Different Takes On The Threat Posed By CMEs

You may not have realized it, but on July 23, 2012, scientists witnessed a massive flare and CME discharge from the Sun that was probably as big as that of the Carrington Event of 1859. As Modern Survival Blog notes, we missed bearing the brunt of the 2012 CME by 9 days, and "UC Berkeley research physicist Janet G. Luhmann and their colleagues reported their analysis of the magnetic storm, and determined that the huge outburst (of the July 23, 2012 CME) resulted in release energies equivalent to that of about a billion hydrogen bombs."

     The article goes on to discuss the dangers of CMEs. Quoting information provided by NASA:

      Extreme solar storms pose a threat to all forms of high-technology.

      They begin with an explosion–a “solar flare”—in the magnetic canopy of a sunspot.  X-rays and extreme UV radiation reach Earth at light speed, ionizing the upper layers of our atmosphere; side-effects of this “solar EMP” include radio blackouts and GPS navigation errors.

      Minutes to hours later, the energetic particles arrive.  Moving only slightly slower than light itself, electrons and protons accelerated by the blast can electrify satellites and damage their electronics.

      Then come the CMEs, billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to cross the Sun-Earth divide.

       Analysts believe that a direct hit by an extreme CME such as the one that missed Earth in July 2012 could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket.  Most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps. 

The two primary effects of the CME, according to the article, will be the loss of the electrical grid and damage to electronics, and fires resulting from shorting or damaged electrical equipment or electronics.

     But will it be as bad as all of that? I came across the video embedded below ("Should We Fear The Next Big Solar Storm") at the Real Engineering channel on YouTube and it doesn't seem to paint such a scary picture. According to the video, the electrical currents set up in power lines from CMEs is due to the CME distorting and pushing on the Earth's magnetic field. As the field flux moves through power lines, it generates a DC electric current. There is a potential for damage to transformers, but there are also protective mechanisms that have been incorporated into the most vulnerable portions of the power grid in countries in the extreme north such as Finland and England. Also, because of satellites that are now in place to warn of solar weather, we would have up to an hour's warning which might allow the opportunity to preemptively shut down sections of the grid to protect against damage.

"Should We Fear The Next Big Solar Storm"--Real Engineering (13 min.)

    A 2018 article from CNET summarizes the most likely problems we face from a CME:

      The basic problem stems from electrical currents that solar storms generate in the Earth's ionosphere. Those, in turn, induce currents in the power grid that can lead to two unfortunate outcomes. One is voltage collapse — a type of power blackout that can affect entire electric grids. The other is transformer failure.

      Transformers change one voltage to another — increasing it for long-distance power transmission and decreasing it for household use. Solar storms could destroy power grid transformers, which can be as big as a house, cost more than $10 million and take 12 to 18 months to replace. It's one reason a science and engineering firm called Metatech warned in 2008 that a massive solar storm could cost the US economy between $1 trillion and $2 trillion and take four to 10 years to recover from.

      That projection is too dire, though, say transformer experts at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) as well as Scott Backhaus, an expert in grid resiliency at LANL.

      "Of the potential impacts, the one everybody is concerned about is a large power transformer overheating," says Backhaus. "What would probably happen before that would be voltage collapse."

      While not as devastating, voltage collapse can still cause regional problems. And the more widespread the blackouts, the harder a recovery becomes because broader outages require power plants to initiate a "black start": using their own power sources, like diesel generators, for the electricity needed to restart the whole plant.

      Solar storms cause other problems, too. Satellites beam navigation radio signals to everything from your phone and your car's sat-nav system to oil rigs and airplanes. Massive bursts of charged particles can hobble those services, as well as phone calls and internet data transfers.

      Space weather also can expose aircraft to high levels of radiation. The Earth's magnetic field ordinarily provides protection except near the north and south magnetic poles, but CMEs push that radiation down toward the equator. That means transcontinental flights that usually travel over a pole must detour to less direct routes.

The article also notes that, in addition to early warning from satellites, our power grid is becoming more resilient:

We're adapting our electrical grid in North America — helped politically by the fact that those fixes also help ward off attacks involving high-altitude nuclear weapon explosions. A 2016 rule, for example, requires utilities to test transformers for vulnerabilities to big disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and replace problematic hardware within four years.