Tuesday, January 31, 2023

POTD: "Largest Ship Graveyard In The World..."

 

Source: "Largest Ship Graveyard in the World: Nouadhibou, Mauritania"--Sometimes Interesting

Firing An AR Pistol Without A Brace

Once you start resting your cheek against the buffer tube when shooting an AR pistol, it seems so intuitive that you wonder how it is not obvious to everyone. But it may not be that obvious, particularly to those who have only ever used a pistol brace. Jim Davis, in his article "Firing An AR Pistol — Without A Brace", walks readers through the why and how of shooting the AR pistol while using the buffer tube as a cheek rest. He also has some pointers on steadying the weapon while reloading.

    When I built my AR pistol (see my post here), it originally sported a featureless pistol buffer tube. I had found a rubber foam handle cover (like you see on shovel, rake, and push broom handles) and put that over the buffer tube, which I later discovered was very good for providing some cushioning when resting my cheek against the tube. I initially had tried using an elastic single point sling to provide tension and steadiness when shooting by pushing out against the sling to steady the pistol, but it wasn't really effective, whereas using the cheek weld method was much more effective. Eventually I installed a pistol brace, but never really liked it all that much whether using it as intended or pressing it into service as an impromptu, improvised stock. With the new pistol brace rule having been released, rather than pursue the SBR route, I've removed the brace and its buffer tube and returned to the basic, featureless buffer tube of my original build. 

    I was in a local gun shop last week that was still selling pistol braces with only 30% off the regular price. I suppose if you wanted to SBR a weapon, it would probably be cheaper to pick up such a brace than pay the $200 tax. Nevertheless, I'm surprised that it took the gun stores (at least this one) so long to start discounting the prices. It seems like too little, too late, at this point and this particular store, at least, is probably going to end up having to destroy much of its stock of braces. 

    I don't have much hope of a court overturning the rule. Unlike the bump stock ban, which clearly did not fall within the applicable statutory language defining a machine gun, the pistol braces always ran the potential of running afoul of the law if they were widely misused as shoulder stocks. And the ATF's explanation for the rule is replete with examples of the braces being used or advertised for use as shoulder stocks. A perfect example of a small number of idiots ruining a good deal for everyone else. 

    The ATF continues with its mission to ferret out any technology that might make firearms more fun and/or useful: it has obtained a temporary injunction against Rare Breed Triggers LLC and Rare Breed Firearms LLC for the sale of their forced reset triggers. You can read the DOJ's press release crowing about their success here or Reuters slightly rewritten version here. If the DOJ and Reuters are to be believed, the DOJ's victory will mean the end of gun violence. If you want a more reasonable explanation of the whole dispute, I recommend Survival Cache's article on the subject, "Rare Breed Triggers: Are they Legal?"

Monday, January 30, 2023

POTD: Baltimore's abandoned Northern Central Grain Elevator

 

Exterior

An interior view

Source: "Northern Central Grain Elevator"--Abandoned America. A history of the facility as well as more photographs (both before and after hits abandonment) at the link.

Sunday, January 29, 2023

POTD: Humberstone, Chile

 

Source: Wikimedia
According to this article at Yahoo, "Humberstone is a former English saltpeter mining town in the Atacama Desert. Synthetic nitrate invented during WWI replaced saltpeter, meaning that the facilities were no longer needed." "People fled the town abruptly," the article continues, "leaving behind pictures that still hang on walls and closets still filled with clothes." It also relates that Humberstone was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2005. (See also this Wikipedia article).

The Bump-in-the-Night Belt

We are familiar from literature and film of the idea of the barbarian warrior with the broad war belt around his waist, the knight strapping on his sword belt, or the Western gunslinger buckling on a gun belt before heading out to his fate at high noon. 

    Belts (also termed garters in past centuries regardless of the sex of wearer) were commonly used to not only gather clothing and hold it tight against the body, but were handy for hanging money pouches or purses, as well as items such as knives or swords; or, moving to more modern times, holding ammunition pouches and pistol scabbards. Important for our discussion here, such belts were not generally used for holding up one's trousers.

    Here are a couple examples used by the military in the early 20th Century:

World War I era "Sam Browne" Belt with cross brace
(Source: Wikimedia)


An early World War II improved M1912 web pistol belt
Source: "The U.S. Army M1910 Pattern Combat Equipment Web Belt"

And, of course, there is the quintessential Western gunfighter belt:

Note the buttons for attaching suspenders.
Source: Historical Emporium

The idea of such war belts or battle belts was a setup that didn't have to be worn at all times, but could be quickly strapped on (with weapons or accessories attached) when needed. 

    U.S. law enforcement primarily used Sam Browne belts through the 1960s, although many agencies had already started ditching the shoulder strap due to safety issues well before the 1970s in favor of keepers to connect the duty belt to trouser belts. The next big development was the Velcro duty belt. Rebecca Stone relates, at Police 1:

    With 1974 came a new uniform for the LAPD and a Velcro Sam Browne setup. According to Scott Carnahan, back in the '70s the LARD wanted to get away from the metal buckle because of its reflectiveness, which could potentially make officers a target, especially at night.

    He said that Neale Perkins, founder of Safariland, was working out of his garage back then when he developed a belt for the large agency with back hooks and Velcro to get around this problem. The result was a comfortable, buckleless duty belt. Debuted by Officers Reed and Malloy on the popular TV show Adam12, the design reportedly caught on in other parts of country.

This double belt system--an inner belt connected to an outer belt via a Velcro hook and loop system--seems to have become standard for most law enforcement, at least in the United States.

    Militaries have experimented with different ways for soldiers to carry a basic fighting load as well, going back and forth between belt and belt with webbing (i.e., suspenders) since at least the mid-1800s, with chest rigs and load bearing vests becoming more popular in recent decades. However, based on what I've been seeing, the double belt systems derived from the police duty belt designs have become more popular with "operators".  

    You could be forgiven for thinking that "fighting loads" and "battle belts" would have little application for the civilian outside of a post-SHTF, post-WROL situation requiring civilians to temporarily take on police or military type roles. If you carry a weapon daily, you will have one or more gun belts, appropriate holsters, and maybe even a magazine holder for when you leave your home; and, at home, even if you don't have a weapon on you, you probably have one readily accessible (e.g., a "night-stand" gun). I've written before, for instance, of grabbing a handgun that I can slip into a pocket when checking out bumps in the night.

    But is that enough? I thought so. 

    Then a few years ago I picked up a Sig P220 in .45 ACP. Because of certain of its characteristics, I decided that I would mount a weapon light on it and use it for my "night stand" gun (although that is not where I kept it). Then, in March 2020, I received a holster from Craftholsters that was designed to fit a Sig P220 with a weapon light (you can read my review of the holster here). The holster did not lend itself to concealed carry but was intended as a duty holster of some type. And thinking about it, it did seem preferable to have a holster and belt that I would quickly strap on when needed. 

    A few months later, in corresponding with a long time reader about chest rigs, battle belts, and other types of load bearing equipment, he described his set up using a belt with some kangaroo pouches attached in which he could carry both rifle and pistol magazines (or pepper spray). He selected gear from Condor to test out the concept because, as he described it, "it was inexpensive" and "if it worked [but] the Condor rig wasn't solid [he] could get something better" without being out a lot of money. However, he was mostly pleased with the results--he was able to successfully wear the set up while out and about while concealed and the gear seemed to work well.

    I picked up a couple of the kangaroo pouches he recommended (although they ultimately went onto a plate carrier) and proceeded to go down the rabbit-hole of researching battle belts and watching numerous videos on what belts to select and what load outs to have, many of which I've shared on this blog. I might as well have saved myself the trouble and just gone with what my correspondent had recommended, because that is basically where I wound up.

    I won't bore you with the details of my research or my journey to my final conclusions. I will just go over my conclusions based on my needs (or mission, if you will). Although it is exciting to imagine patrolling through the woods, defending one's homestead against marauders, or serving as a partisan like the Wolverines in Red Dawn, I don't have a large tract of property to patrol and am much more likely to be confronting someone breaking into my storage shed than fighting off marauders or troops of communist soldiers. My mission is home defense and, to a lesser extent, what I might want when engaging in recreational shooting. With that in mind, the gear that I would need to attach would be minimal: a holster (ideally the holster I mentioned above for my P220), a couple magazine pouches, and a pouch for a pepper spray container. However, I wanted the ability to add or change holsters or pouches should my needs evolve. 

    With that in mind, lets turn to the belt. The major division you will find in battle belts are those that are intended to simply go around your waist similar to the belts historically issued by the military (typical modern designs will use some sort of non-slip material on the back to help keep it from moving around too much)--which may or may not have attachment points for a suspender system--and systems using inner and outer belts. Of course, within those two basic divisions you will find varying quality, prices and accessories. For instance, several of the top end inner/outer belt systems include D-rings so that the belt can be used with ropes for hanging off helicopters.

    Since I wanted something that I could throw on over sweat pants, pajamas (ok, a pair of shorts), or a bath robe, the inner/outer belt systems would obviously not work. So, something basic to go around the waist. 

    I wanted MOLLE/PALS attachments so I could put different pouches on it which ruled out a law enforcement style belt. 

    And although I eventually decided that I didn't need to have the same belt used by the elite Special Operations guys (nor did I want to spend the money for such), my research had convinced me of the merits of a high quality buckle. One of the most widely used in the high end belts was a buckle produced by a company called Cobra. So, Cobra buckle it would be, if possible.

    So, after all of that, I wound up back with the belt my friend had originally recommended: the Condor Outdoor LCS Cobra Tactical Belt (which comes with a Cobra quick release buckle). I've provided an Amazon link, but I actually purchased it from a local seller so that I could examine it and try it on first. I will note that it is oversized as it is intended for wearing over heavy clothing. So, if you are going to use it almost exclusively in warmer weather, you might want to consider going down a size (e.g., from Large to Medium). 

    It comes in various colors. A coyote, which is what I purchased, as well as a green and a black model. I haven't seen them in any camouflage patterns, however. 

My basic belt setup.

    The belt actually can be used in a double belt system if you wanted: it just doesn't come with the inner belt, but instead has a slip resistant pad velcroed to the inside. This makes it more comfortable to wear on its own and helps prevent the belt from slipping around a bit. Will it totally prevent the belt from shifting? Probably not. That is one of the advantages of the double belt design; but, as noted earlier, the double belt system is impractical for my needs.

    I wouldn't be totally put off by having to independently purchase the inner belt. I noticed as I reviewed products that in many cases (not all, but many) I liked the features of the outer belt but not the inner belt, or vice versa, so it is something that I would probably change up over time anyway.

Close up of the inner pad.

    The belt comes with a Cobra quick release buckle which has a reputation of being a strong and tough buckle. There is a considerable amount of adjustment on each side to either open up or reduce the size of the belt. The adjustments for the outer belt also use a hook and loop attachment and connect underneath the inner pad. The advantage to this system is that you don't have to worry about the ends dangling around or having to roll them up in their own keeper; the disadvantage is that it is slower to make adjustments. I don't see having to constantly adjust the length, though, so I don't see this as a problem. If I was using this belt in constantly changing environments, or saw myself frequently adding or subtracting thick layers, it might be an issue--something that I will have to test.

Close up of buckle. It's steel.

    Rather than a kangaroo pouch system, I opted for a Condor double pistol magazine pouch. These are a generic sized pouch, but they have elastic panels to keep it reasonably tight, so they will fit a double-stack pistol magazine such as for the Glock 17, or the single stack .45 ACP magazines such as for the 1911 or, in my case, those used in the Sig P220. They have flaps that also protect the magazine and keep them in place, but I noticed that the flaps can be removed if you want to have faster access.

Double magazine pouch and dump pouch.

    I also included a Condor OC Pepper Spray Canister Pouch. The pouch is pretty large--bigger than my pepper spray canister, so I have used the pocket clip for my pepper spray to hold it higher in the pouch so I can grab it if necessary.

Holster and pepper spray pouch. You can see how I used the pocket clip on the pepper spray canister to make sure it didn't slip too far down into the pouch.

    And, finally, I put on a dump pouch I purchased years ago and which has since been gathering dust in a box, mostly for when I take the belt with me out shooting. 

    You will note that I don't have a flashlight pouch on this. My thinking is that if I was grabbing this in the night, I would also be grabbing a flashlight; and if it was the daytime, I would not need the flashlight. If I was going to use this for patrolling purposes--as part of a neighborhood patrol after SHTF--I can easily add a flashlight and pouch (I already have one) or carry one in a pocket using a pocket clip. 

    I haven't decided whether to attach my tourniquet and its pouch or leave it on my first aid kit, but I'm leaning toward including it as well. I've also been considering whether to attach a knife or collapsible baton. It is an evolving project. 

    Finally, because I intended it for quick access, I have installed a hook on which I can hang the belt at night. That makes it easy and quick to get to. I know that best practice is to keep weapons locked up, but I also think back to an article from Sheriff Jim Wilson relating the incident of a friend shot in the back by an home invader while his friend was trying to retrieve a firearm from a gun safe. And I don't have any young children to worry about.

    So, is this the setup that I would use for a combat or patrol load out? No. But that isn't my purpose with it. And if the situation were to change, I can reconfigure it with additional or different items. 

Saturday, January 28, 2023

POTD: Orford Castle

 

Source: Wikimedia

Although the curtain wall and towers have long disappeared, the keep remains in good shape and is now a museum. You can see floor plans and interior pictures at the Wikipedia page, but this site also has 3-D plans and additional information on the layout. 

Friday, January 27, 2023

Some Firearm and Self-Defense Related Links

 

Warrior Poet Society (12 min.)

    As Mark [ed: your humble author] points out in his article, "covering fire" / "suppressive fire" is executed by military units using large volumes of machinegun fire, as Mark's picture shows a minigun.  Pistols are incapable of providing suppressive fire.  Because they lack the volume of fire necessary to achieve the desired effect (forcing the enemy to take cover).  

    Mr. Evans is wrong.  There is no acceptable use of undirected fire in a civilian self-defense scenario.  Every undirected bullet is destroying property, injuring innocent bystanders, maybe killing them.  Murphy's Law guarantees it.  

    You are not the good guy if you are using undirected fire.  Only bad guys use undirected fire, because they don't care who they hit.  

To be fair, I really tried to find a photograph of someone using a handgun to provide covering fire, but was unsuccessful. That in itself may be telling. So I went with the minigun because it looked the most awesome! And my thanks to Jon for mentioning my blog.

  • Active Response Training has posted a new Weekend Knowledge Dump. A few items that stuck out for me was: an article on .380 ACP which echoes some of what I've been saying since I got my Beretta 84, which is that .380 is much better out of the "full size" for the caliber weapons like the Beretta 80-series pistols and those of similar barrel lengths; a report from the Secret Service on Mass Attacks in Public Spaces; and an article that discusses holster wear by disabled people, including potential issues and possible solutions.
  • What I want: "[SHOT 2023] Tippmann Ordnance .22LR Gatling Gun"--The Firearm Blog. It is belt fed (50 and 100-round belts available) and geared for a rate of 600 rounds/minute. Unfortunately the MSRP is $5,600.
  • What I can probably afford: "[SHOT 2023] XS Sights New RD3 2.0 & Sight Pusher"--The Firearm Blog. 

The new tool has a brass pusher to prevent scratches to your pistol’s slide and the sights. The open-topped pushers are made from a block of machined aluminium and securely hold and align with your sights using a plastic shim. Both pushers have a centering scale to allow precise positioning. 

The MSRP is $150 for the DIY model and $200 for the gunsmith model. The only difference between the two mentioned in the article is that the gunsmith model has its own handle while the DIY requires a user supplied Allen wrench to operate. I have to say that this looks sturdier than the RST Rear Sight Tool that I've been using

  • "What Does 'Brandishing' a Gun Mean?" by Jim Wilson, NRA Family. The author explains that "brandishing is the unnecessary and unlawful display of a defensive firearm." Unfortunately, what constitutes "brandishing" varies from one jurisdiction to another. Consequently, Wilson advises against any display of a weapon and instead surprise an attacker:
Our society requires us to let the criminal make the first move—which means that we are already behind if his attack is serious. It is far better to surprise him, and ruin his day, by drawing our gun when he thinks he has everything going his way. Drawing against an attacker who is armed with a deadly weapon, in the middle of his attack, is not brandishing….even if you don’t have to fire a shot.

He also adds:

It is important to realize that not every criminal attack is deadly in nature. And, while it is an attack, it may not justify the use of deadly force on the part of the armed citizen. Producing a firearm during an argument with an unarmed neighbor, for instance, may be a violation of the law. We should produce the defensive handgun only when our life is clearly in immediate danger, or the lives of our family.

Read the whole thing.

The very roots of the gun control movement in America were designed to disarm black people as slaves even as they became freedmen, because they would use these to protect themselves from external racist threats. So as time went on, they had to change the nature of these laws because you can't pass laws saying we don't want black people owning guns, but now they do it in a way that's a lot more subtle. And I'm not necessarily talking about assault weapons bans, although that could classify. But if you take the Supreme Court's decision in Bruen for instance, and the measures that California, New York, and New Jersey are passing to get around that ruling, what they're doing is making it much harder for black Americans to legally get firearms to protect themselves. It has a disproportionate impact on black communities.
  • "Spinning The Wheel" by John Taffin, Guns Magazine. Taffin offers ten tips for becoming more skillful with a revolver. His number one tip is to "study the masters":
Most of the book-style literature on double-action revolver shooting goes back to the 1930s through the 1950s. The words of the old masters are still relevant today; double-action shooting is double-action shooting in the 19th, 20th or 21st century. Great books on double-action shooting include Ed McGivern’s Fast And Fancy Revolver Shooting (1938), Bob McNichols’ Secrets Of Double-Action Shooting (1950), and Bill Jordan’s No Second Place Winner (1965). Although all of these books are 40 years old or older they still contain valuable information. By reading these masters of double-action shooting you also discover there is no single right way to do things. McGivern was the best double-action shooter who ever shot publicly, at least until Jerry Miculek came along. He was incredible then and is unbelievable now, having broken most of McGivern’s records and setting many of his own. There are many videotapes available of Modern Master Miculek. Again, study and learn.
  • "Those Magnificent Webleys (And Enfields): The Ugly Ducklings of the Handgun World" by Holt Bodinson. Webley revolvers were the primary sidearms of the British military through the 1950s. Originally shooting the .455 Webley cartridge, the Brits went to the smaller .38/200 (a .38 S&W firing an overlong and heavy bullet) in the 1930s. Webleys were break action revolvers, meaning that the frame was hinged at the front below the barrel, and locked by a lever and lock incorporating the rear sight. Releasing the lock would allow the top part of the frame to pivot, while also actuating the extractor star to push the cartridges out of the cylinder. It's actually a very handy ejection system and its a pity that no one has attempted something similar in modern revolvers. It is one of those innovations that fell into disfavor--believed to be too weak for modern cartridges--due to the number of poor quality revolvers using the system in the late 1800s and early 1900s. 
  • "The Ruger Mini-14 As A “Survivalist Rifle”, And Accessorizing It"--Mason Dixon Survival. This is but one of a number of recent articles from Mason Dixon Survival looking at weapons that were once the darlings of the survivalist community but have fallen to the wayside with the increased popularity (and lower prices) of the AR15 platform. This one caught my eye because the Mini-14 is often maligned in the defensive community because of its relative inaccuracy compared to the AR style rifles and lack of durability (although the weapon is generally quite reliable). This article addresses the durability issue, noting that they do not fair well under high, sustained, rates of fire, due to the inability to shed heat--a problem made even worse when using the stainless steel version. The author relates:
    Over the course of my LE career, I qualified with the Mini-14 twenty times (Shot iron sights out to 150 yards) and used one in the LE Firearms Instructors Course I attended in the 90’s. Outside of the military, if you want to see a firearm get used and abused, check out the weapons used in the Academy/Training section of LE Departments. Although they had Mini-14’s with parts failures, those rifles had generally gone through thousands and thousands of rounds between those failures.

    That being said, the Mini-14 is not a military grade rifle, and the few times it’s been placed in that role (Bahamas comes to mind), it has had a number of failures. I think one of the issues is that the full auto version, the AC-556, pushes the rifle past what it can absorb when it comes to the heat produced by sustained rapid fire. The question here is, “What performance do you expect out of your ‘Survivalist’ rifle?”. I would not use my Mini-14 if I was a member of an Infantry Squad and had a choice. I would however, consider the Mini-14 to work well as a “Bug Out” rifle, a “Hit ’em and forget ’em” Guerilla rifle or a Survivalist Hunting and Defense rifle.

* * *

    Once, I fired five 30 round mags through one of my blued Mini-14’s in a very short period of time, and I never had an issue with the rifle. A few years later, a Friend and I both owned stainless models of the Mini-14, and he put four 30 round mags through his rifle very quickly, and the barrel ended up warping to the point that he could not zero with the iron sights anymore. I know this can be an issue with semi-auto stainless steel rifles, due to metallurgical concerns, so needless to say, I got rid of my stainless Mini-14 and haven’t owned a stainless version since.

Heat retention is an inherent property (problem?) with stainless steel and not something peculiar to the Mini-14. Something that those of you who opted for stainless barrel on your defensive carbine might want to think about.

POTD: Abandoned Supermarket in Melbourne, Australia

 



    The source of these photographs was from a 2018 article entitled "From packets of Peter Jackson cigarettes to rows of abandoned checkouts: Eerie photographs show a Coles supermarket frozen in time since it closed nine years ago" and published by the Daily Mail. 

    While I typically pick a photograph for this series based on how interesting is the subject, for those involving ruins, I also hope to show what a survivor of an apocalypse might expect as far as the condition of a ruined building post-SHTF--perhaps many years after--and perhaps prompt additional thought even if nothing more than asking yourself "where could a sniper be hiding?" or "how would I approach this structure?" 

    Modern supermarkets are built around the idea of plentiful electricity for interior lighting so even when they have broad expanses of windows, these windows will be at the front of the structure while it will generally be much darker farther into the structure. For big box stores, the issue will be even more pronounced since the only windows will generally be around the entrance(s) with even less natural light reaching the interior. 

    Since the photographer had multiple photographs, I picked the two that best showed this lighting dichotomy. The top photograph is from deep in the interior looking toward the front windows and shows how anyone entering the store from the front would be easily visible--highlighted against the light--to anyone deeper in the store. The bottom photograph taken from just inside the store highlights the opposite problem to someone entering the building from the front: although the immediate area behind the windows is well lit, it is difficult to make out anything deeper in the structure.

For My LDS Readers: "Last Days Temple in Jerusalem" Video

One of the key signs of the last days prior to the Second Coming is the rebuilding of a temple in Jerusalem. This video explains what is this latter day temple that will usher in the Second Coming and distinguishes it from the "Third Temple" (which may or may not be built) which the Jews intend to use to  renew the practice of blood sacrifice as required under the Mosaic Law. The video does not discuss Daniel 12:11 which suggests that the Jews will be practicing blood sacrifice which will be stopped prior to a period of tribulation, but I'm not sure but that that the prophecy in Daniel was referring to the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 AD rather than the tribulation period associated with the Anti-Christ.

Gospel Lessons (33 min.)

Thursday, January 26, 2023

For My LDS Readers: The Poison Within Deseret Book

Those of you outside of the Intermountain states may not be familiar with it, but Deseret Book is the primary retailer for Church  and Church related books and media in Idaho and Utah, and, I believe, Arizona. In many areas, including the Boise, Idaho, area, it is also the authorized distributor for temple garments. 

    The Cwik Media podcast ran an episode a couple weeks ago on the appearance of Pride flags and other pride symbols showing up in a Deseret Book video course.

Cwic Media (42 min.)

    If you don't want to watch the whole video, the key point is that Deseret Book is pushing "allyship" which, as we know from similar racial DIE programs, involves not being tolerant but, instead, requires actively pushing the particular ideology and it goals. In fact, Dictionary.com defines allyship as: 

... the status or role of a person who advocates and actively works for the inclusion of a marginalized or politicized group in all areas of society, not as a member of that group but in solidarity with its struggle and point of view and under its leadership:

Genuine allyship does not come with special recognition—we do not get awards for confronting issues people have to live with every day.

There is nothing within that definition about changing the "marginalized group" to adopt the standards of the larger group: i.e., there is nothing about allyship in the LGBT context that suggests that the gay or lesbian Church member should be encourage or pushed to adopt the Church's views on morality or the commandments regarding chastity. 

    The host of the Cwic show also notes that the LGBT crap being pushed by Deseret Book subverts and diminishes the identities with which we should be concerned--i.e., being children of God, children of the covenant, and disciples of Christ--and replace it with identities based around sexual orientation.

    Apparently followers of the podcast didn't like what they heard and saw coming from Deseret Book and sent messages to the Company to which Deseret Book's president made a disingenuous response typical of leftists when they get caught, which is discussed in the video below:

Cwic Media (7 min.)

He also notes that Deseret Book's studio where video courses are filmed have pride emblems and symbols. The photograph from Deseret Book's Seek learning courses cited in the video is reproduced below:


It's blurred in this photograph but you can clearly see the rainbow artwork on the left hand side of the photograph.

    And another video from Cwik Media about the Pride Flag issue which then morphs into a discussion of national and personal debt:

    The theme running around the LGBT issue and the Church is the whole concept of tolerance and the idea that God expects us to be unconditionally tolerant. But that is not a correct doctrine. 

    God is tolerant only to the extent that he has granted us free agency and the opportunity to act upon that free agency. But the scriptures are clear that his tolerance stops there: He isn't tolerant of sin (although he has given us the opportunity to repent and reject our sins) and scripture is clear that no unclean thing will enter into heaven. And his tolerance doesn't extend to there being no consequence for sin. God sent the flood of Noah; He killed many of the rebellious Israelites that had fled into the wilderness with Moses; He has destroyed entire cities due to their sexual wickedness and killing of babies; He went after the money-changers with a whip; He cursed a tree that didn't produce fruit. His parables are replete with stories of the prideful and lazy not being accepted into heaven. The Book of Revelation spends considerable time detailing the horrific natural disasters that will be used to destroy the wicked. 

    More importantly for our condition, God expects us to forgive others their trespass and the Church is to be a refuge and place for the saints to gather and strengthen one another; but, at the same time, we have been warned about false prophets and wolves in sheep's clothing. God expects us to welcome the penitent (church is often described as a hospital for sinners) but to cast out those that would lead away the members of the flock. But this false doctrine of tolerance tells us to welcome and embrace the false prophet and ravening wolves. One of the means of identifying the false prophets and ravening wolves is through the symbols they use. Thus, there should be no tolerance to those displaying or pushing the symbols of enemy ideologies. 

VIDEO: Treating Arrow Wounds In Medieval Europe

The author goes over the tools and techniques to remove arrow heads and treat arrow wounds in the Medieval period in Europe, including methods used to treat infections.

thehistorysquad (22 min.)

New Bombs & Bants (Streamed Jan. 25, 2023)

 

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 70" (38 min.)
John and the Mrs. mock the important people on the national stage.

VIDEO: "China’s Population is Vanishing"

This fits in nicely as a follow up to the video I linked the other day on China's probable collapse in the coming decades. Demographers have been warning for years that China's population was going to begin shrinking soon, so this is no great surprise (although that it started so early might have been). And the numbers don't seem too scary: the population decline was 850,000 over a one-year period, out of a total population of 1.4 billion. But this is a trend that will only accelerate as the CCP's efforts to reverse it were too little, too late. As the video explains, China's abandonment of the one-child policy doesn't mean much when the majority of young Chinese do not want any children. 

China Uncensored (10 min.)

It's not just China. As I've written before, most developed nations have birth rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. Most developing (i.e., third world) countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa have birth rates fast approaching the replacement rate. And Africa's situation will likely follow that of other countries--it is just trailing a decade or so behind everyone else.

    Aging populations are already dogging the U.S. I was planning on doing an article on the declining labor force participation rate and how it was starting to force wages higher and so I did a bit of research on the issue. Despite my doomsaying about demographics for many years, I was surprised to see that one of the key drivers of the declining labor force participation rate was the aging of the work force. 

    This CBS article from December of last year--"The labor force is shrinking. Here's what is keeping Americans from working"--actually gives a good overview of the issue. From the article:

    The labor market remains surprisingly resilient, with the U.S. adding more jobs than expected in November. Yet that job growth is masking a trend pressuring employers and the economy alike: The labor force is actually shrinking. 

    The number of people who either are working or looking for a job declined by 186,000 in November, marking the third straight monthly drop, according to Labor Department data released on Friday. 

    The labor force participation rate, or the percentage of working-age adults who have a job, fell to 62.1% last month, a 0.3-percentage point drop from August. And that remains a far cry from the pre-pandemic rate of 63.4%, which signals that the labor market is far from fully recovered. 

    The dichotomy of job growth combined with a shrinking pool of workers underscores the tensions facing the U.S. economy at a precarious moment. The Federal Reserve wants to put the brakes on the economy and cool the labor market — yet employers are pulling out the stops to find workers as many remain sidelined due to a combination of sickness and child care issues for parents. On top of that, baby boomers continue to retire in the millions each year. 

    The decline in the labor force participation rate is a "cause of concern," said Sania Khan, chief economist at Eightfold AI, which provides recruiting software. The decline is "one of the main reasons for this persistently tight labor market."

    As a result, employers are boosting wages to attract workers, pushing up average pay 5.1% in November over the last 12 months — or twice as high as economists had expected, according to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

    First, some background. "The U.S. civilian labor force participation [LFP] rate is the sum of all those who are either employed or officially considered unemployed divided by the total population over age 16." The LFP peaked in 2000 at 67.1 and has been declining ever since. This 2013 article from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank outlined the LFP rates from 1948 to 2012 and projections going forward to 2050, none of which were good. But of the three projections, it was the lowest projection which appears to be most accurate based on last month's numbers. And according to it, "the LFP rate is projected to reach 58.5 percent in 2050, an LFP rate lower than what it was in the early 1960s, when the rate began its steady increase."

    The St. Louis Fed's article notes the primary drivers of the declining LFP:

The BLS lists the following factors as primary drivers of the decline in the LFP rate since 2000: (1) the aging of the baby boomer cohort; (2) the decline in the participation rate of those 16-24 years old; (3) the declining LFP rate of women (since its peak in 1999), and (4) the continuous decline of the LFP rate of men (since the 1940s). The main factors that keep the aggregate LFP rate from falling further are the increase of the LFP rate of those 55 and older and the strong attachment to the labor force of Hispanic and Asian people, who constitute the main share of the immigrant population.

Moreover, the authors of that piece "found that the change in the age composition of the population accounted for most (2.18 out of 2.20 percentage points) of the decline in the aggregate LFP rate over the period."

Specifically, this 2.18-percentage-point contribution to the LFP rate decline was mostly driven by a 3-percentage-point decrease in the population share of those 45-54 years old. In contrast to the 2.18-percentage-point decline in the LFP rate that resulted from changes in the age composition of the population, the change in the aggregate LFP rate due to the changes in the LFP rates of different age groups is almost zero on net. It is important to note that this value is the result of dissimilar dynamics of individual groups rather than consistent behavior of the population. For example, the largest contributions to the increase in the aggregate LFP rate are posted by those 55-64 years old (0.63 percentage points) and 65-74 years old (0.65 percentage points). Yet the increases in the LFP rates of these older workers are almost completely nullified by the decreases in the LFP rates of those 16-19 years old (–0.55 percentage points) and 20-24 years old (–0.44 percentage points).

    But while the 2013 article concentrated on the declining participation rate among younger workers--who are likely too busy with school to work--the Philadelphia Fed stated in a 2017 article:

For men of prime working age, it has been falling for more than half a century. And the fall has been particularly acute among black men. The decline in participation has also accelerated since the Great Recession, largely due to the start of retirement by baby boomers. 

 It continued:

By far the main drivers of the overall participation rate are secular forces, usually demographic trends and cultural shifts in society. In the final 25 years of the 20th century, the secular force driving the dramatic increase in participation was women’s entry into the labor force. That steady increase has now ended, and women’s participation has largely stabilized. The largest demographic factor influencing participation now is the aging of the population and the start of retirement for the baby boom generation. During the current recovery, the rising tide of retiring baby boomers has outweighed any modest cyclical recovery in participation. 

 It also adds:

The reasons behind the decline in prime-age male participation remain less well understood than the predictable impact of aging baby boomers on the overall participation rate. One factor that is likely playing a role in the decline in participation of less-educated men versus more-educated men is the increasing wage gap between high- and low-skill workers. 

     Moving closer to today, S&P Global Market Intelligence published an article in September 2022 warning that "Declining labor participation rate threatens long-term growth of US economy." Although the initial focus on the article was getting people back to work after the pandemic, it went on to point out: "Annual population growth stalled at 0.1% in 2021, the lowest rate in the country's history, so a falling participation rate means the U.S. faces long-term constraints to the labor supply that reduce the potential for growth in a country that has 11.2 million job openings and only 6 million people currently looking for work." Moreover, "[d]emographic changes mean the trend will likely worsen. While Market Intelligence expects a short-term recovery in the labor participation rate to 62.7% as the lingering effects of COVID-19 fade, the rate is forecast to grind down to 60.7% by 2035."

    Part of the long-term decline is due to more teenagers staying in school. The labor participation rate of 16-19-year-olds fell from over 48% in 2002 to 37.7% currently. Participation is dwindling at the other end of the age range, as well, as the baby boomer generation reaches retirement age. The demographic surge caused by high birth rates in the '50s and '60s — and the relative affluence of many of those people — means that an unusually large percentage of the working-age population is in a position to retire early. Meanwhile, reduced birth rates in subsequent decades have slowed the pace of younger people coming into the workforce to replace their grandparents.

    This dynamic will not last forever. As the distribution of ages in the labor force smooths out, more workers will likely remain on the job; but these trends will persist for another 10-15 years until the boomer and Generation X anomalies are cleared out, pushing the participation rate lower, according to Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of The Hamilton Project, an economic policy initiative within the institution.

    "If labor force participation stays depressed, that means that even as the economy in the U.S. begins to bounce back, there are not going to be the workers there to fulfill that demand, and that's going to drive up prices in an unwelcome way," Edelberg said.

While the article goes on to discuss various reasons for declines in LFP and methods to address those declines--even looking at what Japan is doing to reverse the declining labor pool it faces because of an aging population--the article concludes, of course, that the only solution is to import more foreign labor.

    What are the consequences of a shrinking labor pool? Well, according to the Philadelphia Fed article cited earlier:

The effects of nonparticipation on society are potentially severe: slower economic growth and a rising dependency ratio. ... So a steadily shrinking participation rate means that the fraction of the population that is either gainfully employed or actively seeking work is steadily dwindling. This slows the growth of GDP, because fewer people are contributing to the nation’s output of goods and services. In addition, the economic returns generated by fewer workers must be spread more thinly via transfers through government programs such as Social Security and Medicare, or through family assistance or charity, to support the growing fraction of the population out of the labor force. As a result, a society with a lower participation rate is also burdened with higher tax rates because the government has a narrower tax base from which to draw revenue.

    Interestingly, this is not just an American problem. "Global labor force participation has shown a steady decline since 1990. According to the World Bank, the global labor force participation rate stood at 59% at the end of 2021, down from 62% in 2010."

Related articles:

Since 1977, U.S. states have passed laws steadily raising the age for which a child must ride in a car safety seat. These laws significantly raise the cost of having a third child, as many regular-sized cars cannot fit three child seats in the back. Using census data and state-year variation in laws, we estimate that when women have two children of ages requiring mandated car seats, they have a lower annual probability of giving birth by 0.73 percentage points. Consistent with a causal channel, this effect is limited to third child births, is concentrated in households with access to a car, and is larger when a male is present (when both front seats are likely to be occupied). We estimate that these laws prevented only 57 car crash fatalities of children nationwide in 2017. Simultaneously, they led to a permanent reduction of approximately 8,000 births in the same year, and 145,000 fewer births since 1980, with 90% of this decline being since 2000.
With all due awareness of the fact that fertility rates could well rebound, it is important to recognize what the current widespread “birth dearth,” if it is not reversed, portends over the longer term. Look at South Korea, a country known for its rapid economic rise, industrial prowess, and now its blockbuster cultural exports — but which also has the dubious distinction of possessing the lowest fertility rate in the world [ed: 0.8]. If current trends persist, South Korea’s population — currently just under 52 million — is projected to drop below 38 million by 2060; by 2100, its population will have dropped below 16 million, less than a third of what it is today.

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

VIDEO: "The Truth About Expensive Winter Gear"

 The author had done a recent video on layering but the clothing he used in the video (not including hat or boots) ran over $1,200. In this video, he offers less expensive alternatives that total just under $200 and work almost as well, as well as reviewing what each layer does and when you want to use (or not use) a particular layer.

VIDEO: "The Truth About Expensive Winter Gear"--
MyLifeOutdoors (6 min.)

POTD: Bancroft Mill in Delaware

Source: "The Remnants Of This Abandoned Mill In Delaware Are Hauntingly Beautiful"
More photos and some history of the cotton mill can be found at the link.

Iron Sights and Scopes

 I just wanted to point out that David Bock, over at Blue Collar Prepping, released a series of articles over the past couple months on iron sights and telescopic sights. He goes into the different types of iron sights and how to use them, as well as covering the basics of telescopic sights and how to mount and zero the same. Here is a linked list of the articles:

Friday, January 20, 2023

New Bombs & Bants (Streamed Jan. 18, 2023)

 

VIDEO: "Bombs and Bants Live! Ep 69" (49 min.)

A New Weekend Knowledge Dump ...

 ... from Greg Ellifritz. One of the topics that was addressed was whether to talk to police after a shooting incident. Notwithstanding what you hear or read, the answer is not a simple "yes or no" but involves some nuance. Greg links to a recent blog post from Massad Ayoob, entitled "When Something Needs To Be Said".  Ayoob acknowledges that trying to answer simple questions like “Exactly how far away was he when you fired? How many shots did you fire? What exactly was said before the shooting started?” can come back to haunt you because it is too easy to be mistaken--your memory may very well betray you.

    Ayoob favorably cites an earlier article by Ellifritz with the title "What Do I Say After a Shooting?" in which Ellifritz discusses some of the issues that come up with false memories:

    The crux of the issue is that our brains don’t work very well when we are under extreme amounts of stress.  When the adrenaline is coursing through your system, it’s extremely difficult to calm down enough to allow for rational thought and clear recall.  No matter how cool and collected you may feel, you’ll likely make a mistake when answering police questions immediately after a shooting. Research has shown that the clearest memories of a stressful incident aren’t fully recalled until after two to three complete sleep cycles!  That’s several days’ time.  It’s for this reason that cops involved in shootings are generally not questioned until several days after the event.

    You might think “Sure, I might screw something up.  Who wouldn’t after such a harrowing ordeal?  Won’t the prosecutor, judge, and jury understand that?”  Maybe.  Maybe not.  It’s best not to take the chance.

Ellifritz continues: 

     Here’s how this will play out if you have an unethical prosecutor or one who is more concerned with garnering political favor than truly seeking “justice”…

    Let’s say that you answer all the questions the cops ask you.  One of the questions is “How many shots did you fire?”  You answer “I think I shot four times.”

    Evidence at the scene establishes clearly that you actually shot eight rounds, but you didn’t remember firing them all.

    When you are on the stand, the line of questioning from the prosecutor will sound like this:

“Is it true that you told officers at the scene that you only fired four rounds?”

“Yes, but…”

    He cuts you off

“I submit the autopsy report into evidence your honor.  The deceased has eight bullet wounds and all the recovered bullets match the rifling of the defendant’s handgun.”  Clearly the defendant shot more than the four rounds he claimed.”

Looking at you, “So we’ve shown you lied about the number of rounds you fired.  What else are you lying about?  The whole story about this man breaking into your house is a lie as well.  We believe you killed an innocent man in cold blood and then lied to police to establish your innocence.”

Lest you think this couldn't happen to you, Ellifritz related the following anecdote: 

I assisted in the investigation of a police-involved shooting in my department a few years ago.  Three officers fired their guns at a burglar who was trying to run them over with his car.  One of the officers fired one shot (and remembered it) before being struck by the car.  Another officer told me he shot 2-3 rounds.  When I took his gun for evidence, the magazine was down a total of six rounds.  The third officer initially stated that he didn’t shoot.  About an hour into the investigation, that officer came up to me and said, “Greg, I was thinking about everything again and I think I may have actually shot my gun.”  I examined his gun and its magazine was missing four cartridges.  And he initially didn’t even remember shooting!

Interestingly, another article included in Greg's round up of articles on "Situation Awareness ... Once The Bullets Start Flying" related a similar type of incident (underline added):

 I recall the first rape case I handled as a new police officer fresh out of the academy. A single female was sleeping in her bed and awoke to find a man with a gun standing over her. She focused intently on the weapon as he gave her orders. Facing a deadly threat, she was forced to comply. What stuck in my mind, however, was how she decided she was going to survive. More than this, she decided she was going to prevail. She began plotting a strategy as the unthinkable was happening to her. She knew she had a gun in her nightstand and made a conscious effort to distract him and move him in that direction. She used the circumstances to her advantage and finally reached her handgun. She fired a few shots, failing to hit the suspect, but she did cause him to take to his heels and flee. That’s situational awareness during the fight. Incidentally, she could recount the story in detail but couldn’t remember if she’d fired the gun and, if so, how many times she shot. She heard no gunshots and thought her gun had failed.

 But back to the Ayoob article. He advocates a more nuanced approach to responding to police questioning at the scene of the accident:

... the conventional wisdom of “Say nothing to the police without a lawyer present” is great advice for guilty people but sub-optimal for those who fired in legitimate self-defense. If the cops don’t have your side of the story, they don’t know what evidence to look for, what witnesses might support your account of events, etc. You will have left them without your side of it, without the truth of the matter.  I’ve told my students for years that “A guilty man’s lawyer who gives you a guilty man’s advice and a guilty man’s defense is likely to get you a guilty man’s verdict.”

 And back to Ellifritz's article, he notes that it is a situation of not talking so much that you hang yourself, but also not providing so little evidence that evidence or witnesses is overlooked or lost because you didn't point it out. Ellifritz notes:

The police questioning process is a balancing act.  You don’t want to provide statements that may later turn out to be incorrect.  You also don’t want to provide evidence against yourself.  But your case would be strengthened if you could point out evidence that is in your favor and if you could provide a description of your attacker so that we can arrest him.  You are on the tightrope.

He suggests following Ayoob's 5-Point Checklist when speaking to police after a shooting:

Massad Ayoob’s Five-Point Checklist

1.     Tell responding officers “I’m the victim; he is the perpetrator.”

2.     Tell responding officers, “I will sign a complaint.”

3.     Point out pertinent evidence.

4.     Point out any witnesses who saw what happened.

5.     If there is any hint that you are a suspect, say “Officer, you will have my full cooperation after I have counsel here.


POTD: Abandoned Mobile Home

 

Source: "Georgia's new law should clean up abandoned manufactured homes, but no movement locally so far"--Chattanooga Times Free Press.

Paul Joseph Watson: The Truth About The Baltimore Bridge Collapse

In this video, Paul Joseph Watson points out why some of the conspiracy theories concerning the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in ...