Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Lusting After A Philosopher King

Martin Gurri, author of The Revolt of the Public, recently discussed the elites' desire for a dictatorship over the messiness of democracy in his article, "Democracy and dictatorship in a nihilistic age." He observes that "[t]he concept of an enlightened dictatorship, with just-so repression, is a fantasy for the op-ed section of the New York Times," and cites to a 2009 op-ed by Thomas L. Friedman in particular who pined for an autocracy akin to that of China. After explaining the problems with modern dictatorships, Gurri goes on to observe: 
For all the received wisdom in the op-ed pages of the New York Times, it isn’t specifically democracy that is broken – or dictatorship either.  It’s the monstrous machinery of modern government as a whole.  The crisis of authority, I mean to say, is structural rather than ideological, and implicates models and ideals of governance inherited from the industrial age:  top-down, steeply hierarchical, staffed by accredited experts, worshipful of “data” and “science,” disdainful of the ignorant masses, and yet, at bottom, a utopian enterprise. 
This describes, with equal accuracy, the government system of China and that of the United States. 
If my thesis is correct, the paralysis and frustration that weigh so heavily on our moment will not be surmounted until political institutions align more closely with social practice.  In the digital age, this can only mean a flattening of government structures.  That’s what the nihilist impulse has sought to do, however blindly.  The public, wielding a Donald Trump or a Jeremy Corbyn in hand, aims to batter the ruling institutions down to eye level, just to see what happens next. 
Dictatorship today rests comfortably within the top-down, we-talk-you-listen model of modern government.  To align it more closely with the public would violate its guiding principle – and, in practice, impede or even endanger one-man rule. 
Democracy, however, can have no principled objection to bringing power down from the heights, closer to the public.  It’s remoteness that requires an explanation.  Democracy was organized differently before the distancing reforms of the twentieth century.  It can re-form again. ...
He then provides a couple of examples of states attempting just that.

Although he uses different language, and approaches the issue from a different direction, it is notable that what Gurri is describing is a society that has become too complex and costly, that is demanding to simplify per Tainter's thesis in The Collapse of Complex Societies. The problem is that the elite are too invested in the status quo. They like "the top-down, we-talk-you-listen model of modern government." Especially its perquisites.

June 29, 2016 -- A Quick Run Around The Web

--something I took a few weeks ago--

As northern and central India continue to suffer thorough severe drought and oppressive heat, police in Bundelkhand and several other regions are reporting a rise in violent – and often deadly – clashes over water.
    After almost 10 years of below-average rainfall and several consecutive years of drought, the region’s rivers, lakes, reservoirs and wells are drying up.
      Disputes are a common problem in many places in India that face water shortages. But Indian police report that the fighting is getting more frequent and bloody. In many parts of the country, neighbors, friends and family are turning on each other, desperate to protect what little water they have left, police records suggest.
        The Republican Party, already rife with science-deniers and economic reality-deniers, has thrown itself into the embrace of a man who fabricates realities that ignorant people like to inhabit.
          Did I say “ignorant”? Yes, I did. It is necessary to say that people are deluded and that the task of leadership is to un-delude them. Is that “elitist”? Maybe it is; maybe we have become so inclined to celebrate the authenticity of all personal conviction that it is now elitist to believe in reason, expertise, and the lessons of history. If so, the party of accepting reality must be prepared to take on the party of denying reality, and its enablers among those who know better. If that is the coming realignment, we should embrace it.
          The current political system, relying on a "mandarin" class to fill the bureaucracy, was devised at a time that most people in the industrialized world did not have educations past the 6th or 8th grades. Today, the population, as a whole, is much more educated than before; and significant numbers are as educated, if not more so, than the elites that despise them. So, Troub's use of the term "ignorant masses" is not only incorrect, but represents the blind hatred of which the author is so critical. It's especially rich because these same elites, that despise the "ignorant masses," are so intent on encouraging immigration from countries where the populations are, in general, uneducated or under-educated relative to the populations in industrialized nations. 
          •  Duh! "Study Learns Chicago Criminals DON'T Buy Their Guns Legally"--BuzzPo. The author writes: "The study learned that virtually zero criminals have ever used the internet or gun shows, because that method is easily traceable. It’s much safer for a criminal to acquire firearms on the streets where they’re harder to keep track of, and that’s most criminals method of choice." Also: 
            The vast majority of the inmates used handguns to commit their crimes or protect themselves, very few cited using “military-style assault weapons.” And they said their habit was to get rid of a gun after one year because of the “legal liability” of being caught with a gun that could be linked to crimes they or others committed.” [ed: The real reason for gun buyback programs?]
              As for specifics regarding sources for purchasing guns, some of the inmates indicated that gangs have individuals with a Firearm Owners Identification Card who buy guns then sell them to gang members. Others indicated using “corrupt cops” who seize guns then “put them back on the street.”
                ... The police response was very quick.  Additional officers arrived at the scene, formed up, broke out a large window, and went in.  But it still took time.  It appears about six minutes passed from the initial shots until the police entered the Pulse club.  During that period, the murderer was shooting and killing people inside the club.  The shooting continued as the police entered.
                  Once in the club, the officers could not locate the murderer.  They were uncertain how many there might be.  They continued to hear shots, and determined that the shooter was in the bathroom area.  They did not shoot at the murderer.  It does not appear that he fired at them; and it does not seem that they “drove him into the bathroom area”.
                    Then they were ordered to wait for the SWAT team.  It took about 15-20 minutes for SWAT to get there.  We do not know if more shots were fired during that period.

                    Tuesday, June 28, 2016

                    June 28, 2016 -- A Quick Run Around the Web


                    • A new Woodpile Report.
                    • Continued anger over Germany's second failure to create a United Europe:
                    The Brexit vote was “a very big shock” for the three leaders, whose economies under Nafta collectively exceed that of the EU, according to John Kirton, director of the University of Toronto’s G-7 Research Group. As a result, the trio is under more pressure to display unity and declare “globalization is good for us and we still deeply believe it and are reaping the rewards as we speak,” Kirton said.

                    Scott Adams Proved Correct

                    Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) had recently authored a post to his blog entitled "Why Gun Control Can’t Be Solved in the USA," which was widely cited. If you haven't seen it, he reasons that a compromise on gun control in the United States is impossible because of an inherent difference in how Democrats and Republicans view and use firearms: 
                    So it seems to me that gun control can’t be solved because Democrats are using guns to kill each other – and want it to stop – whereas Republicans are using guns to defend against Democrats. Psychologically, those are different risk profiles. And you can’t reconcile those interests, except on the margins. For example, both sides might agree that rocket launchers are a step too far. But Democrats are unlikely to talk Republicans out of gun ownership because it comes off as “Put down your gun so I can shoot you.”
                    Let’s all take a deep breath and shake off the mental discomfort I just induced in half of my readers. You can quibble with my unsupported assumptions about gun use, but keep in mind that my point is about psychology and about big group averages. If Republicans think they need guns to protect against Democrats, that’s their reality. And if Democrats believe guns make the world more dangerous for themselves, that is their reality. And they can both be right. Your risk profile is different from mine. 
                    So let’s stop acting as if there is something like “common sense” gun control to be had if we all act reasonably. That’s not an option in this case because we all have different risk profiles when it comes to guns. My gun probably makes me safer, but perhaps yours makes you less safe. You can’t reconcile those interests.
                    This inherent viewpoint of Democrats (that guns are only used to shoot innocent people)  showed up plainly in a couple of articles at The Truth About Guns today. In "Quote of the Day: The Boston Globe’s Advice for Anyone Thinking About Buying a Gun", TTAG quotes Isvari Mohan as writing: “The only purpose of guns is killing. And the only purpose of the gun industry is to sell them. Next time you think about buying a gun, think about that.” Similarly, in "New England Journal of Medicine: Doctor Knows Best! Gun Control for Everyone!," the portions quoted by TTAG show that the authors of the article in the New England Journal of Medicine believe that it was easy access to firearms that allowed the Orlando killer to make his attack, and conclude that "to consider this scale of death the price of freedom is a perversion of the notion of liberty." These are Democrats just as Adams described them: they only see guns as a threat.

                    Handloading the Hornady FTX Bullet in .44 Magnum--Further Thoughts and Experience

                    This is a follow-up on my recent post "Handloading the Hornady FTX Bullet in .44 Magnum--Initial Thoughts" wherein I describes some of the issues and problems I had with using Hornady's flex-tip bullets for use in a lever-action carbine.

                    As I noted, even though the case must be trimmed shorter than is standard for the .44 Magnum, there is little information on powder loads using the FTX bullets. Since the bullets were 225 grain, I started with moderate loads of 2400 and Unique powders, using 20 and 12 grains, respectively. I knew from the get go that the loads using the 2400 were probably too much, since, with the shorter case required for the FTX bullets, I was actually compressing the powder charge slightly when seating the bullets.

                    This past weekend, I had an opportunity to test the rounds. Shooting a 5-shot group of each, the loads using Unique averaged 1546 fps at the muzzle, while the loads using the 2400 averaged 1734 fps. These were shooting out of a 24-inch barrel. Although the loads using the Unique were fairly stiff, cycling seemed fine. The 2400 loads definitely showed signs of too high of pressure, including some flattened primers and difficulty with extraction.

                    I had loaded additional rounds of the 2400, but I am going to pull the bullets and reduce the powder charge when reloading them.

                    Although I wasn't testing for accuracy (other than not damaging my chronograph), I had aimed at a target set out approximately 50 yards when shooting through the chronograph. The results were not that impressive. I expect it will improve when I get a correct loading.

                    Although I have been less than impressed with the using the FTX bullets for hand-loading, I will note one positive aspect: the pointed bullets made it noticeably easier to load the bullets through the loading gate and into the magazine.

                    Juxtaposition This: Mark Zuckerberg on Walls


                    Monday, June 27, 2016

                    Swimming Pools Are More Dangerous To Children Than Firearms

                    I saw an article today about a boy that had drowned in his uncle's swimming pool--a year after his cousin narrowly avoided the same fate. It reminded me of some quick calculations I had done a couple years ago about the risk of swimming pools versus firearms.

                    The impetus for my calculation was an article in The Telegraph that agonized over the fact that approximately 100 children died from gun related accidents in 2013--about two every week. Looking at statistics on drowning though, I found that about 390 kids (i.e., 14 and under) drown in swimming pools or spas every year (that is, more than one per day!). Accidents from other causes take their toll, as well. Some 20 children die each year drowning in buckets; and more than 9,000 die in automobile accidents. There were also 293 kids (less than 9 years old) killed by tipping or falling furniture between 2000 and 2011--62% of which were killed by a falling television. And about the 3.5 million children (14 and younger) are injured each year playing sports.

                    More broadly, in 2000, there were 3,326 deaths attributable to sports (not including professional teams). 3,007 were related to swimming activities (633 were from drowning), while only 3 were related to shooting sports.

                    There are 10.3 million swimming pools in the United States. In 1996, there were 242 million firearms in the United States. More recent estimates place the number north of 310 million. Thus, crunching the numbers (390 drownings in a swimming pool versus 100 accidental shooting deaths as reported by The Telegraph), it appears that swimming pools are about 117 times (or 11,700%) more likely to kill a child than is a firearm.

                    Friday, June 24, 2016

                    Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

                    An essay at The Federalist yesterday suggests that a third party candidate could, possibly, maybe win the election given dissatisfaction with the current candidates, especially among millennials. The article, "Yes, There Will Be An Independent Candidate For President," by Bethany Mandel and David Marcus, is essentially an advertisement for a group calling itself "Better for America."  They describe the group as "comprised of religious leaders and political operatives" who gathered "in a private room at a swanky hotel in midtown" in "a sincere attempt to find alternatives to Trump’s new vision for conservatism and Hillary Clinton’s corrupt crony politics." According to the article, "[t]hose present represented some of the most influential faith leaders in America—thought leaders in their respective denominations and intellectual circles. Also present were lawyers and those with the practical experience necessary to undergo the steps to get another candidate on the ballot without a party apparatus behind it."

                    The reason for the lawyers and "those with practical experience" is because of the legal hurdles of getting a candidate on the various state ballets, especially since the deadline for registering as a candidate has already passed in Texas and North Carolina, and other states deadlines expire soon. But, according to the piece, "[w]orking with several experts in the field, the group is confident that through petition-gathering and legal maneuvers ballot access can be achieved in virtually every state, including those with deadlines that have already passed."

                    The group claims to have three potential candidates that have committed to run if selected, but has not revealed the identity of these candidates. In fact, Better for America seems rather opaque as to who is in the group and what is their political affiliation. Not only does the group not name the three potential candidates, but does not even reveal the identity of the alleged "influential faith leaders" that are advising the group.

                    Mandel and Marcus indicate that "the week-old organization is not an attempt to undermine Trump." Yet, their admission that the group's goal of winning the election "may sound farfetched, and is indeed unlikely," seems to clearly indicate that the purpose of the group is not to elect a candidate, but to make sure one of the current candidates lose.

                    But which candidate are they hoping to undermine? It is pretty obvious that it is Trump.

                    The piece criticizes those that have labeled certain leaders of the Republican party as "RINOS" yet now support Trump.

                    According to the Wikipedia page on Better for America, the chair of the group is John Kingston, III, who, besides being a Wall Street insider, also served as executive director of the documentary Mitt (about the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney) and is described as a member of "the American Enterprise Institute National Council, and was formerly the Vice Chairman of the National Faith and Values Steering Committee for Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign, as well as a member of the National Republican Senatorial Committee Majority Makers and the Republican Governors Association Executive Roundtable." In other words, a reliable party insider. Amee Latour, writing at Bustle, further describes Kingston as "a conservative donor who has worked with other conservatives in the dwindling 'Stop Trump' camp, including William Kristol and Mitt Romney."

                    The executive director is Anne MacDonald, who the New York Times indicates was the chief of staff to the first lady Laura Bush.

                    The Times also indicates that the group is working with the Weekly Standard editor William Kristol, who supports a third party run to stop Trump. The group is being advised by Joel Searby, a Republican strategist. Searby was behind the push to get retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis to run for President, and more recently has urged that Condoleeza Rice enter the race.

                    And it is also probably no coincidence that with this very public announcement about Better for America in The Federalist, George Will has announced that he has changed his political affiliation from Republican to "unaffiliated."

                    So basically, Better for America is a group comprised of Rockefeller Republicans: i.e., those that have been labelled RINO, lost the last two presidential elections, have no interest in protecting gun rights or our national borders, and are globalists. They are more willing to allow Hillary Clinton win the election, and alter the makeup of the Supreme Court for a generation, than to tolerate a president that might seek to limit America's foreign entanglements. They will not present a candidate that can draw votes away from Hillary Clinton, but they will certainly split the vote for Donald Trump. These are dangerous times.

                    June 24, 2016 -- A Quick Run Around the Web

                    Brexit:

                    Of course, the big news for today is that the UK voted to leave the European Union. The UK has always had one foot out the door inasmuch as it had not adopted the Euro but retained its own currency. But the meddlesome and onerous nature of the EU appears to have finally alienated enough of the voters to decide to walk away. Again, I see this as a general realization that the cost of complexity had exceeded the benefits of that complexity. It probably won't stop there, as Scotland will likely reconsider its independence. Some articles:

                    First — technically speaking — the referendum is not legally binding. In theory, Cameron, who plans to leave by October, could ignore the will of a slight majority of voters, and not make any moves to exit the political and economic bloc.
                      But Cameron, who led the campaign to remain in the EU, is likely to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which begins the legal process for leaving the bloc.
                        "The British people have made the very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction," he said Friday in a televised address outside his residence. "I do not think it would be right for me to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination."
                          Once Article 50 is invoked, a series of negotiations would begin about how to disentangle the U.K. from the many EU structures to which it is a party. The process could take two years or more, if both the U.K. and the European Council agree to extend the discussion period.
                            Cameron has said this process would be irreversible.
                              "We should be clear that this process is not an invitation to rejoin, it is a process for leaving," he said in February.
                                Some have suggested that British leadership could avoid invoking Article 50 all together, and would instead attempt to negotiate a different — not entirely separate — relationship with the EU.

                                Firearms/Self-Defense:
                                Other Stuff:
                                Many Americans do not think of the right to keep and bear arms as a civil right, but they are mistaken. It helps to understand things from the point of view of the Founders and the 18th-century radical liberals whose ideas shaped our republic. Prior to the American founding, the right to keep and bear arms was generally limited to the aristocracy; it was, like the possession of a title or a coat of arms (coat of what?), a bright and dramatic dividing line between the ruling class and the ruled classes, between the Whos and Whoms of society. Arguments about licensing the carry of weapons are hardly new: Caravaggio was arrested for carrying without a license (a sword, in his case) in 1598 near the Piazza Navona in Rome at 3 a.m. 
                                The bearing of arms is a sign of citizenship, which is to say, of being a full participant in government who acts through it, as opposed to subjectship, the state of being a passive being who does not act through government but who is acted upon. In that sense, it is like the ability to vote or to be eligible for service in government. Frederick Douglass understood this linkage perfectly, inasmuch as these ideas were much better understood in those more literate days. “A man’s rights rest in three boxes,” he said. “The ballot box, jury box, and the cartridge box. Let no man be kept from the ballot box because of his color. Let no woman be kept from the ballot box because of her sex.” The militias contemplated by the Second Amendment were armed citizen volunteers who could act to use the force of arms to keep the peace in an emergency; they are entitled to act in the peacekeeping role generally reserved for the state because, being the citizens of a republic, they are the state, the very seat of its sovereignty. The formal government is a provisional arrangement (hence regular elections) constituted as a convenience. While the Second Amendment may not codify a “right of revolution,” as some put it, the idea of armed citizens pushing out a government that had become inconvenient, a burden on their liberties rather than a guarantor of them, could hardly have been alien to a group of men who had just risked their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor doing just that.
                                  Until just a few months ago, I was one of those red, white, and blue optimists who firmly believed that the United States could survive damage done by whatever idiots an apathetic electorate put in charge. I terribly underestimated two things: the Democrats’ contempt for the Constitution and the Republicans’ commitment to losing, even when they win.

                                    Now that we’re about three quarters through an elaborate falling dominoes design that will probably end up looking like a hammer and sickle, all I have to say is that you should enjoy the last few months of America because there is one thing of which I am now certain: the republic as we have enjoyed it will cease to exist after the next election.
                                      No, I don’t mean “America” will be gone, rather the America we’ve known.
                                      Throughout its history, American society has been tolerant of and even supportive of the identity politics of various minority groups, from the Irish and Italians a century ago to Hispanics and Asians today. This tradition has been good for the country, overall, in that it has encouraged assimilation while making our society more dynamic. But if we are moving toward “majority-minority” status in many states and localities, we should probably expect to see a rise in white identity politics as well. It’s hard to argue that this would similarly salutary, or that the balkanization of American society along racial and ethnic lines will make the country a better place.

                                      Thursday, June 23, 2016

                                      Video: "Ancient Apocalypse--Mystery of the Minoans"


                                      This video documentary concerns the collapse of the Minoan civilization, "an Aegean Bronze Age civilization that arose on the island of Crete and other Aegean islands and flourished from approximately 3650 to 1400 BCE." This particular documentary explores whether the explosive eruption of Thera (modern day, Santorini) around 1600 BC caused or contributed to the collapse of the Minoan culture. Prior to the eruption, Thera was a horseshoe shaped is and with a shallow bay in the horseshoe, mostly taken up by a smaller island (so, basically, there was an outer island "wall" or "shell" protecting a smaller island surrounded by a sea passageway). The center island obviously was a prime port with the possibility of ships being able to land a full 360 degrees around the island, with all being in a protected harbor. Because Thera lay north of Crete, the island would have been a natural trading port between Crete, where the Minoan government was centered, the Balkan and Peloponnese peninsulas, and Asia Minor. The documentary suggests that this city would fill a similar role that Hong Kong plays in the Far East, as center of international trade (and, probably, finance).

                                      The eruption destroyed much of Thera, including the central island city. That bay and city island overlay the caldera, of which what remained after the explosion, collapsed forming a deep bay. The ash plume would have been 26 miles high. A tidal wave produced by the explosion would have destroyed ports all along the north coast of Crete. The explosion likely rivaled that of the 1815 Tambora explosion; the amount of sulfur dioxide thrown into the atmosphere likely reduced global temperatures, perhaps for several years. Certainly, it is likely that the Minoans experienced crop failures.

                                      The Minoan civilization did not collapse immediately, but it appears to have entered a period of decline, with new or alien religions popping up in the rural areas. The Minoan period ended with either invasion, civil war, or both. The grand palace at Knossos was abandoned and gave rise to the myth of King Minos and the maze in which the Minotaur was kept.

                                      I find this documentary to be interesting in several ways. First, I see it fulfilling many of the traits of collapse as described by Tainter. The Minoan civilization was an old and wealthy civilization by the time of the explosion of Thera. The sheer magnitude of the palace at Knossos demonstrates the amount of wealth that must have been needed to maintain the elite. Moreover, public works (running water and sewers) would have required a significant expenditure. It is likely that by the time of the Thera eruption, the civilization had reached a level of complexity where new laws and public works were producing a negative return on investment. With resources stretched thin, a sudden disaster--the loss of much of the ships and ports on which it relied, as well as the complete destruction of its major seaport--was more than the civilization could mitigate. Moreover, if you put yourself in the shoes of the "average" Minoan, you could see how a disaster of this magnitude could be seen as a judgment of the gods, and therefore destroying much of the legitimacy of the ruling class. This seems to be evidenced by the fact that a new rival religion arose in rural areas of Crete.

                                      Second, I find the collapse of Minoan civilization to have many similarities to events outlined in Chapter 8 of the Revelation, when the Seventh Seal is opened; like those events writ small. Obviously, we don't know if the Minoans had been warned by some unknown ancient prophet, but certainly they were oblivious to the impending disaster. Similarly, when the Seventh Seal is opened, there will be a short silence in heaven. I interpret this as a period of time when God will withdraw his spirit from the world (not necessarily the righteous, but the world at large), fulfilling the statement that Lord's spirit would not always strive with man. (Genesis 6:3). (See also 2 Nephi 26:11) ("For the Spirit of the Lord will not always strive with man. And when the Spirit ceaseth to strive with man then cometh speedy destruction, and this grieveth my soul."). Then we hear of lightning and thunder and an earthquake, followed by hail and fire, and a mountain "burning with fire" cast into the sea. While there are several possible explanations for this, it would certainly match one or more massive volcanic explosions. Next, John's Revelation describes the fall from heaven of the star called Wormwood. While I believe this may be a meteor or some other physical object, I also recognize that heavenly bodies (including stars) are used to represent or designate heavenly or supernatural personages. Thus, this could be an angel of some sort coming to the earth to spread destruction. In any event, poisoned waters could be a result of major volcanic activity, whether from ash falls, sulfuric acid, hydrofluoric acid, or some other contaminants. Finally, after all of this, the Revelation describes spreading war and conflict--just as experienced by the Minoans as their civilization collapsed.

                                      Wednesday, June 22, 2016

                                      Video: "Ancient Apocalypse Death on the Nile"


                                      This video concerns the collapse of the Egyptian Old Kingdom (c. 2686 BC–c. 2181 BC), the first of the great Egyptian civilizations. Although it is accepted, based on the archaeological evidence, that the Old Kingdom's demise was accompanied by civil war and a fragmentation of the country (echoes of Tainter's thesis in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies (PDF)), this program is about evidence indicating that the collapse was caused (or helped along) by a catastrophic change in climate: a period of global cooling that caused a severe drought between 2200 and 2150 BC with the resultant famine. Egypt then entered a "dark age".

                                      Tuesday, June 21, 2016

                                      The Cultural Roots of Crime

                                      Long-time readers of this blog are probably aware of articles and books I've referenced in the past concerning crime and violence, as well as the disproportionate amount of violent crime committed by certain minorities. Thus, it was with interest I read a recent article/interview by David Frum at The Atlantic, entitled, "The Cultural Roots of Crime: A conversation about the rise and fall of violence in America with criminal-justice scholar Barry Latzer." 

                                      Latzer, a criminal defense attorney and researcher, takes the controversial position in his book, The Rise and Fall of Violent Crime in America, that crime is related to culture (not race--he specifically notes the dramatically lower crime rates of Haitian refugees in Miami in the early 1980's compared to the black Americans in Miami), and that spikes in crime rates are tied to immigration and migration within the nation-state of populations with more crime-prone cultures. He uses this to explain the crime spikes of 1890-1935 and plunge during 1935-1965, as well as the more recent spike and plunge. Latzer explains that in the 1890's, Northern cities were actually seeing low crime rates, while the South experienced rising violent crime by blacks. He goes on:
                                      Northern cities started to suffer more violent crime in the first decade of the 20th century, partly because of the southern Italian migration to the U.S. ... Then, following World War I, a Mexican migration to the U.S. added to the crime totals, as did a major spike in black migration out of the South. The war sparked a black movement to big cities for economic betterment, but, unfortunately, also brought with it high crime rates within the black community. In addition, Prohibition, which began in 1920, produced violence among the alcohol distribution gangs competing for turf (though this violence did not target ordinary citizens). 
                                      Violent crime peaked in the early 1930s, with a wave of bank robberies by “Pretty Boy” Floyd, “Baby Face” Nelson, John Dillinger, and Bonnie and Clyde Barrow. ... 
                                      Crime rates started to decline in the mid-1930s, at the same time that the New Deal went into effect. This may seem like cause-and-effect: unemployment and poverty were reduced, so violent crime diminished. But this is not necessarily correct. First, Prohibition ended in 1933, and that helped reduce murder rates. Second, the spate of bank robberies and kidnappings declined, partly because law enforcement apprehended high-profile perpetrators. Third, migration by blacks and Mexicans and immigration by Italians declined dramatically when jobs became unavailable due to the Depression. Finally, there was a severe downturn in the economy in 1937 and 1938, yet violent crime continued to fall. The American public was terribly damaged by the Great Depression—68 percent of Americans were below the poverty line in 1939—but this produced no increase in violent crime.

 
                                      During World War II, crime continued to drop, partly because the war removed hundreds of thousands of young men from the streets to the barracks. When the war ended there was a brief spike in violent crime, but the downturn continued after the war and well into the postwar boom of the 1950s. No one is sure why crime remained low in the 1950s, but several factors helped. Crime rates for African Americans, though higher than average, were historically low for that community. Drug and alcohol use also were down. The Depression had produced a birth dearth, so the young male population was reduced. And the supercharged economy created a massive and growing middle class in a short period of time; and middle-class people seldom commit crimes of violence. All in all, the 1950s was a golden age of low crime.  
                                      He also outlines his arguments as to why culture is the predominate factor for crime rates and why poverty is over emphasized:
                                      Different groups of people, insofar as they consider themselves separate from others, share various cultural characteristics: dietary, religious, linguistic, artistic, etc. They also share common beliefs and values. There is nothing terribly controversial about this. If it is mistaken then the entire fields of sociology and anthropology are built on mistaken premises. 



                                      With respect to violent crime, scholars are most interested in a group's preference for violence as a way of resolving interpersonal conflict. Some groups, traditionally rural, developed cultures of “honor”—strong sensitivities to personal insult. We see this among white and black southerners in the 19th century, and among southern Italian and Mexican immigrants to the U.S. in the early 20th century. These groups engaged in high levels of assaultive crimes in response to perceived slights, mainly victimizing their own kind. This honor culture explains the high rates of violent crime among African Americans who, living amidst southern whites for over a century, incorporated those values. When blacks migrated north in the 20th century, they transported these rates of violence. Elijah Anderson's book, The Code of the Streets, describes the phenomenon, and Thomas Sowell, in Black Liberals and White Rednecks, helps explain it.


                                       
                                      In the case of blacks, the big change in terms of violence was the high robbery rates and the concomitantly high white victimization rates of the post-60s era (robbery being a crime against strangers). These were products of the massive postwar spike in black migration to northern cities (800,000 in the 1960s; 1.8 million in the ‘70s); the black baby boom coming of age for violence (late adolescence, early manhood); a youth crime contagion, in which crime became cool and young males copied one another and began mugging with impunity; and the opportunities for victimization presented by whites who moved about northern cities with lots of cash and valuables. 
                                      Theories of crime that point to poverty and racism have the advantage of explaining why low-income groups predominate when it comes to violent crime. What they really explain, though, is why more affluent groups refrain from such crime. And the answer is that middle-class people (regardless of race) stand to lose a great deal from such behavior. Wisely, more affluent people go to law and seek other nonviolent methods to resolve interpersonal conflicts. Poor people, and especially young, male poor people, do not. Their perceived stake in the established order is tenuous. 
                                       I think the implications for immigration policies is readily apparent.

                                      Friday, June 17, 2016

                                      Heh. "What is it like to fire a Daisy bb gun?"

                                      A sarcastic rebuttal to Gersh Kuntzman's article "What is it like to fire an AR-15?" My favorite part:
                                      ... The sound of the spring loaded plunger going “boing” startled me. I became disoriented watching the bb arc towards its target. The “dink!” sound it made bouncing off a coke can was horribly loud. The recoil was horrendous, like a bazooka or some other recoilless weapon, and it dislocated my shoulder. I vomited and cried. I still have PTSD. Anxiety. Irritability. Nightmares. I may never again be the same.

                                      What the Left Knows, But Won't Admit

                                      The Captain's Journal has an excellent piece on the current push for gun control, entitled "The Goal Is People Control, Not Gun Control." It is worth the read.

                                      Here's the thing in a nut-shell. The cultural Marxists have studied Mao Tse Tung. They know, as he said: "Every Communist must grasp the truth; 'Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.'" The leftists know this truth just as surely as did the men who drafted the Second Amendment. And the leftists want all the power.

                                      Thursday, June 16, 2016

                                      Homemade Firearm Used to Kill MP

                                      I've sure you've seen the reports of the shooting and stabbing attack that resulted in Jo Cox's death. Cox was a Member of Parliament (MP) that had been campaigning against Brexit. A report from the Daily Mail indicates that a witness to the attack described the firearm used as "looking homemade." Other witnesses indicate that it looked old fashioned, like a musket (although it was pistol sized, not a long-arm).

                                      The Savage Turn Against The Right To Self-Defense

                                      Make no mistake about it--the Second Amendment is inexorably tied the right of self-defense. The right to self-defense is meaningless if the means of self-defense are prohibited. The Truth About Guns reports that Senate Republicans have agreed to two gun control votes: the so-called "No-Fly, No-Buy" (where purchase is prohibited if you somehow wind up on the mysterious "no fly" list maintained by the DHS) and universal background checks for all sales (to include private sales). Given the IRS's targeting of conservative groups, how long will it be before conservatives start to disproportionately show up on the "no fly" list? To add insult to injury, Senator John McCain (RINO, Arizona) has added a provision to the military spending bill that would require the military to melt down old firearms--including the .45 ACP 1911s that were slated to be distributed to the CMP for sale to the public. It is long past the time for McCain to be put out to pasture, and I've never understood why Arizona voters keep voting for him. 

                                      As Robert Farago observes, this may be one of the worst of times for gun control. He observes:
                                      The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has come out of the civilian disarmament closet, the NRA and her Republican rival are down with “temporarily” denying Americans their gun rights without due process, California is busy redefining the term “full retard” on gun control, the 9th Circuit Court pissed on the Heller and McDonald decisions from a great height (upholding a de facto ban on bearing arms), the Supremes aren’t going to run to the rescue, and the Senate’s set to vote on universal background checks — again — and the whole “no-fly, no buy” misegos. 
                                      With Trump negotiating with the NRA and the NRA’s Texas guy Senator Cornyn negotiating with Dianne “Ban Them All and Let God Sort Them Out” Feinstein, there doesn’t seem to be a bright light at the end of this tunnel — unless it’s the headlight of an oncoming train. I’ve never been so pessimistic about our firearms freedom. 
                                      I suspect that the Congressmen that vote for any of these measures are going to pay come the next elections. Unfortunately, the damage will have been done and, as we've seen over the past 20 years since the last time Congress did something similar, their replacements won't do anything to repeal any laws that are passed.

                                      Wednesday, June 15, 2016

                                      Big Changes At Advanced Survival Guide

                                      I've found Advanced Survival Guide to be a useful source of information on survival topics, particularly radio communications. They have been running a sister site called "KA9OFF" which is a news aggregating site that focuses on survival topics: news concerning natural and man-made disaster and updates, and articles from survival oriented web-sites. (I also have a link to KA9OFF in the upper right-hand corner of my blog page under the heading "Survival/Prepping News").

                                      However, the folks at Advanced Survival Guide are changing things up a bit. They are going to dismantle Advanced Survival Guide in July in order to concentrate on a few other projects. KA9OFF will continue. But, in addition, they have started two new blogs: Security and Self Reliance.com; and Bow and Blade.com. These latter two sites are already up and running, so check them out. I will be adding them to my Useful Links page, as well.

                                      Hot Drinks

                                      Then: "And again, hot drinks are not for the body or belly."--verse 9 of Section 89 of the Doctrine & Covenants.

                                      Now: "Very hot drinks 'probably' cause cancer of the oesophagus, world health chiefs warn"--Daily Mail. "Gulping down anything very hot - over 65°C (150F) - including water, coffee, tea and other beverages - is linked to the disease, according The World Health Organisation's cancer agency."

                                      Monday, June 13, 2016

                                      Handloading the Hornady FTX Bullet in .44 Magnum--Initial Thoughts

                                      Many of you have probably heard of Hornady's LEVERevolution line of ammunition, even if you haven't used it. Lever action rifles are light weight and handy rifles, but have been limited by the in-line tube magazine from using Spitzer type bullets because of the risk of a chain fire (the point of one bullet acting, under recoil, as a firing pin to detonate the next bullet in line, etc.). Shooters using such guns generally turn to round nosed, flat-tipped, or hollow-point bullets. Unfortunately, the aerodynamics of those bullets is not conducive to long-range use. Thus, for instance, the .30-30--the most popular lever action cartridge--is typically perceived to be limited to 150 yards for hunting. Hornady has attempted to get around this by using what essentially is a hollow point with a soft polymer insert to give the bullet a pointed or spire-point profile: Hornady's FTX (flex-tip) bullet.

                                      There are a lot of calibers for lever action rifles, but I happen to have one in .44 Remington Magnum. I recently had an opportunity to pick up some of Hornady's FTX bullets for the forty-four* that were on sale, and decided to give it a try. I might not have if I had first researched some of the special issues with reloading the FTX for the .44 Magnum.

                                      The first issue is the cartridge overall length (COAL). Because of the pointed tip, the standard COAL can be exceeded when using standard length casings for the forty-four. While not an issue with most revolvers, it can be an issue in lever action rifles, causing hang-ups with feeding. Standard case length for the .44 Magnum is supposed to be 1.285 inches. However, Hornady recommends trimming the cases to 1.255 inches. So, the first task was to trim the cases.

                                      I had thought about using .44 Special cases, which are shorter, but was concerned about powder capacity. As well as I should have, because the issue arose with the FTX bullets in the shorter cases. I was using Alliant 2400 powder because it is a common powder for the .44 Magnum, and it is somewhat slower burning than other pistol powders, such as Unique (which is my standard go-to in handgun loads), which I thought would work better in a rifle length barrel. Unfortunately, my Hornady reloading manual is a couple editions in the past, and did not have information on the FTX bullet, nor was I able to find much information on the internet. However, a standard loading for 225 grain hollow-point bullets in .44 Magnum is in the range of 19 to 21 grains of 2400. (I've had good luck with 19.5 grains under a 225 grain hollow point with revolver, but had wanted to see about getting a bit more velocity out of the rifle). But with the shorter case, even with a middle value of 20 grains, I was actually compacting the powder when seating the bullet.

                                      How did I know, you ask? That was the third issue: it is possible to deform the polymer tip when loading. I have found some discussion of this issue on a couple forums, and the remedy seems to drill a hole in the seating plug so there is no force being exerted on the polymer tip. Not a project I want to get into at this point. I decided to switch to Unique which takes a smaller charge (in the range of 11 to 13 grains), although the volume is not proportionately smaller. However, it was enough less to not result in compression, and the tips of the bullets appear to be fine.

                                      I did not have time to test out my loads, but will report on that when I have had a chance. It will be interesting to see if they provide a noticeable improvement over hollow-point; or, at least, enough to be worth the extra hassle.

                                      UPDATE: I saw some interest in this article, so I decided to provide an update. First of all, I did purchase a new Hornady Manual, and, for the 225 gr. FTX, it gives a range between 13.6 and 15.5 grains of 2400, but these are for relatively low velocities (1200 fps at the upper range). The best powder seems to be Lil' Gun which has a range of 15.6 to 20.9 grains according to the Manual, giving 1450 fps at the high end. There were no recommendations for Unique, unfortunately.

                                            I tried some of my handloads out of my lever action and decided it wasn't really worth it. I went back to a 240 grain XTP bullet. I still have some of the FTX loads around, as well as extra bullets, but will pull the bullets on the FTX loads for the .44 Magnum and use those bullets (and my left overs) in .44 Special.
                                      *******
                                      *I watched an otherwise enjoyable police drama recently where the characters kept saying "point two two" instead of "twenty-two" and "point three eight" instead of "thirty-eight" when referring to the .22 and .38 calibers.

                                      Sunday, June 12, 2016

                                      The Orlando Attack and the Fragmentation of America

                                      By now you are probably aware of the terrorist attack at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida. If not, the basic facts are these:

                                      Weasel Zippers is a good source for updates.

                                      We are already seeing liberals gloss over the terrorist and Muslim connections, spinning it as merely a hate-crime against the LGBT community, and calling for more gun control. Of course, this means that there will be a surge of people scrambling to buy firearms (particularly AR 15s), magazines, and ammunition in anticipation of efforts to further restrict the right to bear arms. Ignored will be the fact that Muslim terrorists in other countries routinely kill similar numbers of people under legal regimes banning firearms and explosives, and lost will be the truism that "where there is a will, there is a way." We will probably hear little of how this incident is yet a further example that law enforcement won't--can't--protect you from these types of attacks.

                                      While one would hope that this incident might cause to the LGBT community to reassess their blind support of unfettered immigration and defense of Islam, it won't. Most of the LGBT community are liberals, and to liberals, hatred of the West has progressed beyond trendiness to being a core aspect of their personality. To recognize the threat posed by the adherents of Mohammad would be denying a part of their soul.

                                      But this attack will be used to push two agendas: (1) gun control; and (2) further censure of anyone holding or expressing a belief that homosexuality is immoral. It will also dominate the news cycle for days and weeks to come, taking attention from the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. And, in fact, so effective will this incident be for these purposes that one could be forgiven for wondering if it was a false-flag attack.

                                      However, the result will not be a national change of direction, but a further hardening of battle lines. It is obvious that gun control would not have prevented this attack. The killer had necessarily passed background checks in order to obtain his firearms license and license to work as a security officer. And, even if the restrictions had worked, he merely would have turned to the black market (just as the shooters in Paris or countless gang bangers in the United States) or used explosives. But that won't stop the arguments since the purpose of liberal "propaganda [is] not to persuade or convince, not to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it correspond[s] to reality the better." But many Americans are no longer buying into the lie; instead, they seek to reset the system. A reset that will require the preservation of rights, not an abandonment.

                                      This is not to say that further efforts to regulate guns or marginalize those with religious beliefs that reject the LGBT lifestyle will not succeed. We very well may see legislation or "executive action" to regulate firearms, restrict magazine capacity, or ammunition. And, certainly, this incident will be used to shame anyone that is opposed to gay marriage or trannies in women's restrooms. But successful or not, there will be growing resentment. Gun owners will be resentful of the continued assault on their Second Amendment and natural rights to bear arms. Liberals and other weak minded individuals will be resentful of anyone that rejects "commonsense" gun control. Similarly, social conservatives will be resentful of their being furthered labelled as hateful or intolerant; and social liberals will be resentful that not everyone bends to their will.

                                      And so, rather than seeing the unity that followed 9/11, this incident will result in the widening of the divides within the American body politic.

                                      Friday, June 10, 2016

                                      Video: "How To Make Exploding Targets (Bottle Blasters)"--Grant Thompson

                                      "How To Make Exploding Targets (Bottle Blasters)"--Grant Thompson. An interesting and fun concept: using pressurized water and soda bottles as a reactive target.

                                      Fifty Survival Tips

                                      A reader pointed me to something that may be of interest to outdoor enthusiasts: "50 Survival Tips and Tricks for the Outdoors." Not a survival guide, per se, but, as the title indicates, a collection of wilderness survival hacks, including a table of contents so you can easily skip around. Anyway, check it out.

                                      Thursday, June 9, 2016

                                      Why Indeed?

                                      Mr.Thilo Weissflog wrote a letter to the editor of the New York Times which suggests that the primary difference between the National Rifle Association of the 1930s and today is that, according to him, it has transformed from an organization advocating for responsible gun owners to one advocating for the gun industry. "Why else would its officials oppose the reasonable regulation of potentially deadly weapons?" he writes.

                                      Having lived through the transformation of the NRA into what it is today, and knowing someone that worked on a state level to force the NRA to re-evaluate its position, I can say with a high level of confidence that Mr. Weissflog has it completely backwards. While there is little information I can find on the motive for the NRA's support of the National Firearms Act in the 1930s, by the time the 1968 Act rolled around, the NRA clearly was on the side of the American gun companies and dealers in supporting the Act because it cut off sales of firearms through the mail (to the benefit of the gun dealers) and protected the manufacturers from the flood of military surplus rifles that had been flowing into the United States. It was a grassroots backlash against the NRA's actions in regard to the 1968 Act that began to turn the tide; a backlash that grew only stronger with the NRA's support of the 1986 "Firearms Owners Protection Act" which outlawed the manufacture of new automatic weapons for civilian sale, and, as I witnessed, the NRA's tepid support (if even that) for "shall-issue" concealed carry laws in the late 1980's and early 1990's. By that point, many gun owners had developed a strong dislike, or even hatred, of the NRA. But the strong reactions against politicians that supported the 1994 assault weapon ban and the boycott against Smith & Wesson for bowing to the demands of the anti-gun hordes finally put some back-bone into the NRA.

                                      It is a fear of a backlash from responsible gun owners that currently keeps the NRA in line.

                                      June 9, 2016 -- A Quick Run Around the Web

                                      Location of US carriers. (Source: Stratfor). Solomon at SNAFU! wonders why so many of the amphibious warfare ships are at home ports. Lack of repairs/budget problems? Or resupply so they can be all out at the same time?

                                      Firearms and Shooting:
                                      • "Ballistics 101: What is Form Factor?"--Nathaniel F. at The Firearms Blog. Nathaniel writes: "If ballistic coefficient indicates how well a given projectile resists drag when compared to the model projectile, form factor indicates how much more or less aerodynamic that projectile’s shape is than the model projectile’s. The important difference between the two is that form factor exists irrespective of sectional density (SD). Form factor does not tell you how well a projectile resists air drag, but it does indicate how efficient a projectile with that shape and of a given sectional density will be." Read the whole thing.
                                      • "Modern Big-Game Bullets"--American Rifleman. An article on how bullets are constructed in order to do their job of expanding but not loosing mass (i.e., breaking apart) when they strike a game animal.
                                      • "Midway USA Expands Their Own Brand with 'TACTICAL' Shooting Mat"--The Firearms Blog. On sale now for $29.99 according to the article. 
                                      • "Skill Drills: Mad Half Minute"--Handgun Magazine
                                      • "Magpul AK74 MOE 5.45x39mm Magazine"--Loose Rounds. Word is that Magpul will be producing AK74 mags.
                                      • "Motion vs. Action"--The Tactical Wire. Going through the motions versus actually performing an action correctly.


                                      Other Stuff:
                                      • Related: "Battle of the Teutoburg Forest"--Wikipedia. This battle in 9 A.D., which saw the loss of three Roman legions, marked the end of Rome's attempts to expand beyond the Rhine, ceding control of the territories it had gained back to the barbarian tribes.
                                      Right now, I’d assume that this is being used for more or less legit purposes, because we live in a time of r and money is everywhere. But if K-selection hits, and these departments can’t feed their officer’s families, understand that if you have a bank card, it is not impossible your savings account could get zero’d out in a moment by a uniformed unit on a traffic stop, as you drive to your vacation at the shore. Now, under asset forfeiture rules, you then have to go to court and prove that your money wasn’t associated with any crime and in between the agency might offer you 70% of your money back, for expediency. Assuming it could easily cost you more for legal representation to get it all back, you could end up with a 70% haircut on your account for no reason at all.
                                        When the apocalypse hits, the big contest will be to see who can guard whatever wealth they have, and not just from criminals but from the government too. They say procession is 9/10ths of the law, but in apocalypse, it will be everything.

                                        Monday, June 6, 2016

                                        June 6, 2016--A Quick Run Around the Web

                                        Photograph of a crumbling staircase on an abandoned building in Portugal. Source: "The hauntingly beautiful abandoned buildings where time stands still: Eerie snaps show decaying kitchens, derelict churches and stately manors that are being reclaimed by nature"--Daily Mail. A lot more photos from different locations around Europe at the link.


                                        • Related: "Things Change: The Startling Contrasts Of Venezuela And Colombia"--Return of Kings. Over the last 30 years of so, Columbia has gone from a country nearly torn apart by drug cartels and guerrilla warfare, to a country surging in peace and prosperity; Venezuela has gone from peace and prosperity to the edge of being a failed state.
                                          Americans have grown accustomed to low crime rates since a peak in the 1990s. But law enforcement started seeing a spike last year that has continued unabated. What's unusual, however, is that it's not happening everywhere. Chicago and Los Angeles are seeing homicides on the rise, but other places like Miami and Oakland are not.
                                            Chicago, a city long associated with violent crime that plagues its poorer neighborhoods, saw six people fatally shot over the Memorial Day weekend and 56 wounded, ending a bloody month in a bloody year. May's 66 homicides - 19 more than May 2015 and 25 more than May 2014 - raised the total number for the year past the 240 mark. That's more than 50 percent higher than last year, and puts the city on a pace to easily surpass the 500 homicides it saw in 2012.
                                              Perhaps more significant is the number of people who are being shot; well over 1,200 as of Tuesday, which far surpasses the 800 by this time last year.
                                                Hundreds of people packed the streets outside Webster Hall in Manhattan's East Village after Kanye West teased a surprise concert there early Monday — but the concert was ultimately canceled as the crowd grew and grew, leading to a frenzied scene that left behind smashed cars and piles of trash. 
                                                  Despite high energy at the unplanned event and a heavy police presence, no one was arrested, according to the NYPD.

                                                  Review and 1,000 Round Test of the Beretta 80x

                                                  The Firearm Blog has published their "TFB Review: 1,000 Rounds On The Beretta 80x" ( Part 1 ) ( Part 2 ).     The Beretta 80x, as ...