Friday, June 19, 2026

Interesting. Plague Outbreak 5,500 Years Ago

Ars Technica reports that "Hunter-gatherers in Siberia died of a plague outbreak 5,500 years ago." The article relates that "[p]lague swept through groups of hunter-gatherers in southeastern Siberia 5,500 years ago, leaving dozens dead in its wake—with DNA from Yersinia pestis bacteria still trapped inside their teeth." A few points:

  • The reason this is significant is because the previously belief was that the plague only became deadly to humans after humans had settled in communities living in close association with rats or other animals that were hosts to the fleas carrying the Y. pestis bacterium. But this outbreak was among hunter gatherers. Thus, not only was close and long term contact not needed to produce a plague deadly to humans, but something that was as deadly as later plagues had already arisen much earlier than believed possible.
  • The article indicates that the plague DNA was extracted from "plague victims at four ancient cemeteries in the area around Russia’s Lake Baikal." This is significant because it seems to be part of the large marmot based plague reservoir. Lake Baikal is in Russia, just north of central Mongolia. The 14th Century plague was traced back to the Lake Issyk Kul, which is in modern day eastern Kyrgyzstan. Not exceptionally close, but both part of the natural range of marmots in Central Asia (see the map below).
  • Finally, the article indicates that "Bubonic plague spreads through flea bites, but pneumonic plague is a respiratory disease, which spreads in a similar way to the flu or COVID-19, and that seems to be how this early version would have passed from person to person." This is also what made the 14th Century Black Death so deadly and allowed it spread so quickly. It didn't need or use fleas once it became pneumonic. 

Perhaps this particular outbreak was largely contained simply because there were not the extensive trade routes and number of people as in the 14th Century, but it would be interesting to know how far the plague spread from this 5,500 B.C. event. My suspicions are that if we were to ever see another plague outbreak comparable to the Black Death, it will also originate in this Central Asian marmot reservoir.

Lake Baikal is the largest lake just above Mongolia in this map, while Lake Issyk Kul is the only lake you can see in Kyrgyzstan in this map. (Source)

VIDEO: Water Kit For A Team Or Family

Prepared Airman shows that he uses in the field to supply water for a team. It should also work for a family that enjoys backpacking, camping in unimproved campgrounds without potable water, or even for a group that is bugging out. You will notice that despite the filters used for providing the group with water, he also uses a Grayl Geopress for personal use. The thing about the Geopress, though, is that it can quickly process water--much faster than other personal systems--so if you had to you could use it to supply water to a group over a short period of time. The limitation is the filter life, which is why you might want to go with some other filters for a large group or for an extended period of time. (See this video testing various water filters).

 VIDEO: "The Water Kit That Keeps a Team Alive: My Water Kit for the Field"
PreparedAirman (13 min.)

Weekend Reading #61

Some longer and more involved reading for the weekend:

  • First up is Jon Low's most recent Defensive Pistolcraft newsletter.  I'll start with this always good reminder of  John Farnam's rules of self-defense:  
    • Don’t go to stupid places.  
    • Don’t associate with stupid people.  
    • Don’t do stupid things.  
    • Have a “normal” appearance.  
    • Be in bed by 10:00 PM (your own bed).  
    • Don’t fail the attitude test.  
     Some other topics of interest:
    • John writes:

     Autonomic Nervous System responses are not just to recoil and report, they are also in anticipation of recoil and report.  That's why we, disciples of Jeff Cooper, teach the surprise trigger break.  The surprise break defeats all autonomic nervous system responses (jerk, flinch, freeze, push, etc.) by not allowing the brain to know exactly when the recoil and report will occur.  

    Any ANS responses occur after the bullet has exited the muzzle.  

     If you intentionally, consciously, make your pistol fire, you will induce ANS responses.  The trick / secret / technique is to:  

1.  Take the slack out of the trigger.  

2.  Smoothly increase pressure on the trigger.  Do not fire the pistol.  Just increase pressure by repeating your mantra, "Keep pressing, keep pressing, keep pressing, . . . "  [Thanks to Kaery Dudenhofer.  A lot of research and experimentation went into developing this mantra.]

3.  Eventually, the pistol will fire.  But, because you did not intentionally fire the pistol, there will be no ANS responses to disturb your shot.  The responses will occur after the bullet has exited the muzzle.  
So, the bullets will go where you aimed them (if your pistol is zeroed).  

     "This sounds like magic to me."  

     Yes, any sufficiently advanced technology will appear to be magic to the ignorant.  The human is God's masterpiece of creation, extremely advanced technology, far beyond the comprehension of man.  

     When students achieve the surprise break, they shoot one hole groups at 3 yards (some as far as 5 yards).  This direct feedback causes an epiphany.  It's not like riding a bicycle.  Once learned, it can be forgotten.  But it's easier to achieve the next time, because you know what you're searching for.  

     "This is a long complex process.  I won't have time to recite a mantra in combat."  

     With dedicated practice, the process will compress in time and become very fast.  

     Of course, the surprise break is only a small part of the shot process, which is only a small part of the tactical exercise, which is only a small part of the scenario.  Real scenarios are surprising.  No command to "Load and make ready".  No checking to see if you're "Ready?"  No authority ordering you to use lethal force.  You must take responsibility.    

  •  Just as there are different schools of martial arts, there are different schools of shooting techniques. Jon has this to say about it:

     At dinner, after Farnam's Rifle class, a gentleman said that he had taken a lot of firearms training classes and that he had found most of the stuff that was taught in the U.S. by competent instructors is the same.  Only about 10% is different.  And that the differences were not significant.  So I asked him who he had taken classes from.  And his list included a lot of names and schools that I'm sure you would be familiar with.  

     I suggested to him that all of the instructors he had mentioned were disciples of Jeff Cooper (1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation), and if he would take classes from others, he would find more diversity of philosophy and techniques.  I know it is inconvenient to travel to foreign countries for training, but even within the U.S. there are Israeli schools (e.g. Pacific West Academy or if you ask around at any Jewish Community Center you can get referrals, often incorporating Krav Maga), South African / Rhodesian schools (I am not listing examples, because I have not received permission yet.), and European (German, often in association with a weaponized version of Schutzhund dog training, using the dog as a self-defense weapon) schools that I have found to be very different from the American schools.  [Louis Awerbuck was South African, but he was a disciple of Jeff Cooper.  So, I do not include him in the South African school.]   

  •  Next up is Greg Ellifritz's Weekend Knowledge Dump, also with links and commentary on self-defense and firearms related articles. A few links that caught by attention:
    • "Carrying a Gun While Camping and Hiking: Practical Guide" by Jacob Paulsen is a very detailed article on carry guns for camping and hiking, looking at the selection of a weapon, securing the weapon, touching up gun laws and whether the castle doctrine might apply to your tent or camper (it depends), bears, where/how to carry when using a backpack, medical and communications, and more.
    • "Comparing Revolver and Autopistol Reliability" from the Revolver Guy. Short take: "autopistols tend to be more resistant to abuse, while revolvers tend to be more resistant to neglect." 
    • On a related note: "Is the Revolver the Ultimate Survival Gun? by Brad Miller. Discussing some advantages that a revolver has over a semi-auto in wilderness survival or bugging out situations.
    • And, again, related: "Some thoughts on torture tests" from Primer Peak. The author believes most torture tests are clickbait with no real value, concluding: "Outside of checking for premature parts breakage or excessive wear with high round counts, most torture tests should be left behind."
    • "How to protect your home from rioting mobs using fire as a weapon" from Last Minute Survival. Houses in the U.S. are particularly vulnerable to this attack because the vast majority of homes use wood framing and wood or vinyl siding. His first and probably most important piece of advice is simply clean up the things that are flammable: don't leave out bags of trash, tires, or canisters of fuel (e.g. that half can of gasoline for the lawnmower). 
    • And an article on how to test if you 1911's safety's work. Just some quick, simple tests to make sure the active and passive safeties are working.  
  •  "When a quote is not (exactly) a quote: General Motors"--Library of Congress. Actually not a long read, but a good example of how famous quotes can subtly change, generally to make them more pithier. The example here is Congressional testimony from General Motors President Charles E. Wilson after he had been nominated for Secretary of Defense:

Senator Hendrickson. Well now, I am interested to know whether if a situation did arise where you had to make a decision which was extremely adverse to the interests of your stock and General Motors Corp. or any of these other companies, or extremely adverse to the company, in the interests of the United States Government, could you make that decision?

Mr. Wilson. Yes, sir; I could. I cannot conceive of one because for years I thought what was good for our country was good for General Motors, and vice versa. The difference did not exist. Our company is too big. It goes with the welfare of the country. Our contribution to the Nation is quite considerable.” 

Wilson's comments were quickly altered (by the New York Times, of course) to “what is good for General Motors is good for the country, and what is good for the country is good for General Motors.” Which then became the more commonly known version today: "What’s good for General Motors is good for America." 

  • "The Hunt for Judah P. Benjamin, the Spy Chief of the Confederacy" by Jay Solomon and Jane Singer at Tablet Magazine. The article summary: "Suspected of orchestrating the Lincoln assassination, the South’s most prominent Jew escaped to London to start a new life as a high-powered lawyer. The U.S. government secretly tried to bring him home to face justice." A short excerpt:
    Benjamin, Jefferson Davis, and the Confederate leadership fled south after Richmond’s collapse and were temporarily based in Charlotte, North Carolina, when news arrived of Lincoln’s death. No concrete evidence has emerged in the historical record that conclusively proves Benjamin or Davis had any knowledge of Booth’s murderous plans. But as the newly victorious North sought vengeance after four years of fratricidal war, Benjamin, for one, knew he’d be a suspect due to his ties, through the Confederate Secret Service, to the actor-turned-assassin.

    Union detectives investigating Lincoln’s death quickly reconstructed Booth’s travels to Montreal and the contacts he’d made there with Benjamin’s agents. But even more damaging to the Confederate diplomat, they also found in Booth’s hotel room a Confederate cipher key that exactly matched one they found in Benjamin’s abandoned Richmond office. This evidence was presented at the trial of the Lincoln conspirators in Washington.

    “On the 6th of April, I went into the office of Mr. Benjamin, the rebel Secretary of State. On the shelf, among Mr. Benjamin’s books and other things, I found this cipher key,” testified Charles Dana, the North’s assistant secretary of war. “I saw it was a key to the official rebel cipher.”

    Benjamin’s spy network also tied him to Booth in other damaging and seemingly direct ways. While serving in Richmond, Benjamin used as his personal courier a Maryland-based rebel, John Surratt Jr., to ferry his messages to Washington and agents further north. It was the same man who served as Booth’s accomplice in concocting the kidnapping plot of Lincoln. Surratt’s mother, Mary, hosted the actor at her Washington boarding house in the weeks before the attack.

    Surratt would later speak of meeting Benjamin at Richmond’s Spotswood Hotel, and receiving money from him, just days before the capital fell and the attack on Lincoln commenced. Surratt denied ever telling Benjamin of Booth’s activities. But the Confederate leader’s intelligence, and expansive control of his Secret Service, raises questions about the truthfulness of Surratt’s statement. Mary Surratt was eventually hanged for her role in supporting Booth. John Surratt escaped the U.S. by using Benjamin’s overseas spy networks to get to Europe.

    Benjamin, meanwhile, commenced after the assassination of Lincoln to launch one of the greatest escapes in American history—especially for a bookish, pudgy attorney with no military service. He peeled off from Jefferson Davis’ entourage in the town of Washington, Georgia, on May 3, 1865, and proceeded to make his way down the Gulf Coast of Florida. He disguised himself as a bearded, and disheveled, French trader, named M.M. Bonfals, according to press accounts from the time. “Goggles on … a hat well over his face,” Benjamin was nearly unrecognizable.

    He bumped along in a wagon on long, rutted roads and passed by the detritus of the war, including burnt-out buildings and scorched fields. He made it to a sugar plantation owned by a Confederate sympathizer in what’s now Bradenton, Florida. He hid for a month from Union patrols in the plantation house’s second story. He eventually found a Confederate spy ship to ferry him to the Bahamas. But he nearly drowned in subsequent attempts to reach Cuba, dogged by waterspouts and unseaworthy sloops. It took him weeks to reach Havana and the steamships that crossed the Atlantic.

    The Union government’s obsession with capturing Benjamin, however, only grew as the trial of the Lincoln conspirators commenced in May 1865. Newly sworn in President Andrew Johnson, a rabid antisemite, told the Northern press: “There was no rebel, whose hanging seemed so imperatively demanded by public justice, as Judah P. Benjamin.”

    The Confederate spy chief finally reached Southampton, England on August 30, 1865, more than four months after Richmond’s fall. He would immediately tap into the Confederate networks in England and France that he was so central in creating and deploying. He had allies across the sea.

Fears of the "Big One"

From the Daily Mail: "Big One fears erupt as San Andreas fault reaches highest stress level in 1,000 years." From the lede:

    Fears of the 'Big One' - an earthquake so big it devastates all of California - have risen to new heights after a disturbing discovery under America's most dangerous fault line.

    Researchers from the US and Switzerland revealed that the San Andreas Fault has reached its highest levels of stress in 1,000 years - adding that it has been more than 160 years since the giant crack in the Earth's crust had a major release of energy.

    The San Andreas is an 800-mile-long fault line which runs under most of California, passing by Los Angeles in the south and San Francisco in the north and connecting to several other major faults, most notably the San Jacinto Fault near Los Angeles. 

The City of Los Angeles has a pretty good preparedness guide available in PDF here. The California Earthquake Authority also has a website with preparedness advice. And one of the better post-disaster novels I've read is The Walk by Lee Goldberg (Amazon link) which follows Marty Slack, a TV network executive, as he survives "the Big One" and treks across Los Angeles from a film shoot in downtown Los Angeles, where he was when the quake struck, to his home in the San Fernando Valley. It's not long (190 pages) and makes a good read IMHO. 

Thursday, June 18, 2026

VIDEO: Lead Round Nose Bullets For Self-Defense

With how poorly standard pressure .38 Special hollow points generally perform out of a snub-nosed revolver, you might be wondering how inexpensive lead round nose works. This video tests that out, as well as some .32 S&W Long. 

VIDEO: "Is Lead Round Nose Any Good for Defense in a Snub? Sellier & Bellot .38 Special VS .32 Long Gel Test" - Gun Sam Revolver Ballistics (20 minutes).

Handloading for the .223/5.56

    In response to a comment the other day about the Mini-14, I noted that many years ago I had worked up a load that worked quite well in a Mini-14 I owned, which was a 50-grain Speer soft point over 27 grains of Accurate 2230. That load worked well for me and my particular rifle, but it may not be appropriate for your weapon, so use that recipe at your own risk.

    The reason that I selected 2230 powder over other powders was that it was specifically developed as a 5.56 NATO propellant. (See "Propellant Profiles - Accurate 2230" at Handloader Magazine for more detailed information on the background of the powder). Of course, it being the early 1990s, I didn't have that article available, but found that out from some other source, probably an article in one of my father's gun magazines. It may not be the best powder for the application, but it worked for me and so I continue to use it.

    I've moved on since then and my loadings in recent years have been heavier bullets to use with an AR style rifle, including bulk 62 grain Green Tip pulled bullets that I had purchased from RMR Bullets. Since I like the 2230 powder, I just used the manufacturer's loading data for the Green Tip ammo (you can download a PDF of their reloading data here). For .223, the load for the 62 grain M855 is 21.4 grains of 2230. They have a separate section of loads for the 5.56mm; and when using the M855 bullets, the powder weight is listed as 22.8 grains of 2230, reflecting the higher pressures for 5.56. Of course, you may need to adjust the powder load to get the best performance out of your firearm. 

    And a few articles on the subject:

Tell Us What You Really Think...

The Bugscuffle Gazette (fka Law Dog Files) has some thoughts on the so-called grooming gang scandal in the UK and what was revealed in the recent investigative report of the same:

    ... I was not expecting to learn that the grooming gangs have been operating since 1955. Seventy-one years. At least two generations of British children have been savagely sacrificed on the altar of multiculturalism, willingly helped and encouraged by not only the State, but by our “Journalistic Betters”.

    I was not expecting to learn that the victims number a quarter of a million. At minimum.

    The least job of a society — the very minimal function expected — is the protection of the innocent and the defence of those who cannot protect themselves.

    The Government of Great Britain — from the least to the highest — not only failed in this most minor of duties, but actively aided and abetted the destruction of the innocent and the depredation of the defenceless — with the enthusiastic assistance of “professional” “journalists”.

    Seventy-one (71) years. Two-hundred and fifty-thousand (250,000) children raped. Trafficked. Tortured.

    I don’t ever bloody well want to hear any English person tell me I don’t need guns again. “The police will protect you” you say, with that supercilious smirk. Read that report again — especially the part about the police failing to protect children, CHILDREN for God’s sake — and then get sodding bent.

    I am furious. I don’t want apologies — I want officers executed. I want politicians hung in the public square, their possessions seized. I want journalistic edifices chained shut and set on fire.
   

I think this should be a reminder that police are like sheep dogs; and just like sheep dogs, they work for the shepherd, not the sheep. If the police failed to protect these children on the scale that the report indicates, it is because it was government policy. 

Who Were The People Plotting To Attack The White House UFC Match?

You've probably already heard that the FBI arrested 5 individuals for plotting an attack on the attendees of a UFC fight being held at the White House. If not, the Daily Mail reports on it here. It is a somewhat odd article because it desperately wants to paint the attackers as a right wing group--and perhaps they are--but some points suggest otherwise:

  • First, the article reports (bold added), "the group's plan to target the UFC fight was carefully orchestrated to maximize confusion and present the gunman with opportunities to target Trump administration officials and billionaires - what he considered 'HVTs,' high value targets." This suggests a Leftist worldview. 
  • Second, the leader of the group had "mused about targeting Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, noting on his phone how 'she's taken money from the Israel pro Israel lobby.'" Similarly, "[a]lso on the alleged target list were politicians who received donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), according to sources." This point cuts both ways, but the pro-Palestinian movement is definitely Left wing and Sen. Blackburn is a Republican. 
  • Third, per the article, "[o]ne suspect allegedly told authorities the group was targeting 'capitalist elites' and 'billionaires.'" That is pretty much communist rhetoric. 

 And then there is this article, "Alleged ‘ringleader’ of disrupted attack on White House UFC show arrested in Nebraska," which reports: "Abraham Hermosillo Alvarez, 31, of Omaha was arrested Sunday in a raid on an old church in the small town of Western, Neb. According to federal court records filed Tuesday, Alvarez is not a U.S. citizen." The piece continues:

    “From his home here in Nebraska, Alvarez allegedly directed and recruited others across the country to conduct a horrific attack against government officials in a mass casualty event. Our team worked around the clock to locate and apprehend Alvarez, take him into custody, and collect crucial evidence,” Special Agent in Charge Eugene Kowel of the FBI Omaha field office said in Tuesday release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

 [snip]

    According to court records, Proper said the group would meet up in Fredericksburg, Va., and use drones during a demonstration to blow up the north side of the UFC arena built outside the White House, then shoot the crowd as they evacuated to the south. The snipers would focus on high-value targets, like wealthy people and politicians, in order to jumpstart a revolution, the documents state, listing top targets as President Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Tesla/SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, and multiple members of Congress. Messages in the e-communications identified Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Jim Justice (R-W. Va.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W. Va.), and Reps. Carol Miller (R-W. Va.) and Riley Moore (R-W. Va.), as potential targets as they were recipients of AIPAC funds. 

A Metaphor For Obama's Presidency

"Obama Presidential Center subcontractors claim they’re owed millions and facing financial ruin ahead of grand opening"--New York Post.  It's not just that the contractors haven't been paid, but many are afraid to even publicly talk about it:

Several also described what they viewed as a wall of silence surrounding the project, with some declining to speak publicly or requesting anonymity because of confidentiality agreements or fears of professional retaliation.    

And of course the complete lack of concern for ordinary Americans:

    As the center prepares for a star-studded pre-opening celebration on Thursday featuring performers including Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder and John Legend, Owen said it has been difficult to watch the buildup and soft-opening events take shape over the past few weeks while his company struggles financially.

    “It was kind of hard seeing some local and national celebrities high-fiving and back-slapping here about the work that’s been done,” Owen said. “The backdrop of a coming celebration is kind of hard to swallow for me and for some of my peers at the moment.” 
  

The article goes on to note that "the Obama Presidential Center was built around one of the most ambitious efforts to increase participation by minority-owned businesses and workers from historically underserved communities," but then reports that many of the contractors that have not been paid and are struggling financially as a result are these same minority-owned businesses.  

Wilder: Space X and the AI Bubble

John Wilder's latest piece, "SpaceX®: The Final Frontier?", discusses the SpaceX initial public offering, profitability, and financial bubbles. 

    Under normal economic theory, money is more or less efficiently used because it chases after business opportunities and investments that will make those businesses a profit, meaning that it is flowing to companies producing goods and services which people actually want and need. This is why socialism and communism always fail--instead of going into things people need and want, it goes where some soulless bureaucrat thinks it should go, which is often for social engineering programs. 

    But bubbles are driven by speculation (a financial term meaning gambling) which chases hype and the fast buck. Unfortunately, it draws in a lot of money that would otherwise have gone to stable, useful investments into a gambling frenzy until it the bubble pops and the money is gone into the pockets of the best gamblers leaving the late comers high and dry.  And if the bubble was big enough, and drew in enough money, it will result in a recession or, even, a depression. 

    The concern that John has is that this IPO was not to support SpaceX or even Starlink, but is intended to fund Musk's venture into AI. And investment in AI (by everyone, not just Musk) may well be a bubble.  

Interesting. Plague Outbreak 5,500 Years Ago

Ars Technica reports that " Hunter-gatherers in Siberia died of a plague outbreak 5,500 years ago ." The article relates that ...