As you know, the French elites might have staved off the French people regaining control of their nation's fate by allying with the far left, resulting in the conservative National Rally doing much worse in the second round of the French parliamentary elections. As France 24 reports, "With 182 seats for the leftist coalition, 168 for President Macron’s centrists and 143 for the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) the Assembly, the lower house, is now divided into three distinct blocs." The article goes on to examine different scenarios of how this three way split might play out.
First, the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) could force President Macron to appoint a prime minister from the NFP. Termed "cohabitations," this arrangement, where the PM is a different party from the President, has only occurred three times since 1958. "But in each of these previous periods of shared power, either the right or the left had obtained an absolute majority in the Assembly." In addition, lacking a majority might result in the NFP passing laws by decree:
If an NFP-led government is formed, it could try to force legislation through the Assembly by decree. Article 49.3 of the Constitution allows a bill to be passed without a vote, a procedure that was denounced by both right and left when it was used by Macron, notably to impose pension reform.
“What was done by 49.3 can be undone by 49.3,” said Faure on France Info radio, while suggesting this was not an ideal method.
The notion of passing bills by decree was ruled out by Sandrine Rousseau, who was re-elected as a Green (EELV) MP, in an interview on BFMTV. “The New Popular Front will not govern by 49.3. We will respect the sovereignty of the National Assembly and its ability to make amendments and work on legislative bills. I think we need to make this very clear to the French people."
The second scenario is that the current Prime Minister could be left in charge of a "provisional government."
A third possibility is "the formation of a 'grand coalition' between different political groups, which would bring together a majority in the Assembly behind a consensus prime minister." The article notes that while common in certain other European countries, it would be the first time in the Fifth Republic (i.e., since 1958).
Fourth, Macron's party could form a minority government:
The NFP could theoretically form a minority government, but would need the tacit support of elected representatives of other political parties. The presidential camp could also form a new government but would face the same requirement."
In any case, such a minority government would live under the constant threat of a no confidence vote from the Assembly which could force the prime minister to resign. It would struggle to govern and be obliged to seek majorities on a case-by-case basis for each bill.
“A minority government can work if it’s not too far from a majority. But then there has to be a tacit agreement with the other political forces to let this government get on with the basics of governing, and not just immediately trash it,” sums up constitutionalist Maus.
Finally, "[i]f the situation remains deadlocked, the appointment of a 'technocratic' government may be called for. This would involve appointing non-partisan ministers – experts and technocrats – to manage the daily business of government and implement consensual reforms. The arrangement, which is somewhat vague, has never been tried under the Fifth Republic."
Macron was able to arrange deals so that candidates would withdraw from the second round of voting in order to keep National Rally from winning a majority, so I'm sure that whatever happens, it will have already been decided in various backroom deals.
More:
- "French Elections: Populist Le Pen Party Won Most Votes But Awarded Third Most Seats"--Breitbart. From the article: "The disparity between votes and seats in the National Assembly came as a result of the backroom deal struck between President Macron and the New Popular Front, in which each side agreed to drop out in favour of the candidate with the best chance of beating out the populist party in over 200 legislative districts."
- "Communists and Islamists Take France: A movement aimed at destroying France will now be in a prime position to do so"--Front Page Magazine. Daniel Greenfield relates: "Macron, who had bet hard on the public rallying to him against the National Rally and Marine Le Pen’s conservatives, was crushed and decided to ally with the Communists and Jihadists represented by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his France Unbowed party which is at the heart of the New Popular Front (NFP)."
Russell Brand has some more analysis in his video, below:
It was up to them. They failed.
ReplyDeleteNational Rally continues to grow in popularity, but not enough to overcome the machinations of the elites, who would rather see France destroyed than lose power.
DeleteAny bets on when Madame G will be rolled out of storage and fired up again?
ReplyDeleteI've never seen the film.
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