First are 'Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios' (ASRS), in which events like volcanic eruptions, nuclear winter, or asteroid impacts suddenly block out the sun with dust.
Second are events known as 'Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss' (GCIL), which lead to mass disruptions to electricity, transport, and food production systems.
These could come from powerful geomagnetic storms caused by solar flares, high–altitude electromagnetic pulses from nuclear weapons, or massive cyberattacks.
Finally, the researchers identify Global Catastrophic Biological Risks (GCBRs), where natural or man–made biological hazards lead to mass casualties and disruption on a continental or global scale.
I find it interesting that they do not consider a full-scale nuclear exchange. It would have been at the top of the list when I was a teen.
In any event, the safest countries:
Different countries have a range of factors that make them more or less resilient to each category of risk.
Likewise, a factor that can be a bonus in resisting one challenge can actually make a nation more vulnerable to another.
For example, being an island makes it easier for Australia to shut itself off from the world and isolate against pandemics.
But this isolation can also make a country more vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions or fuel shortages.
However, in the overall assessment, Australia still comes out on top as the most resilient against the widest range of threats.
Other resilient nations include New Zealand, Japan, Switzerland, and Argentina, but all of these are exposed to specific threats.
New Zealand, Japan, and Argentina all have long coastlines which are exposed to tsunamis caused by asteroid impacts.
Likewise, all of these nations besides Switzerland are dangerously close to one of the several volcanoes that could erupt in Southeast Asia and South America.
What I don't see is any consideration of refugees or even invasion subsequent to a global disaster. For instance, Australia is only a short distance from Indonesia, population 288 million; the population for the whole of Southeast Asia is 706 million; and just a bit farther is India, population 1.47 billion. And since the Australian government has disarmed its people, that population would be helpless in the face of a massive influx of refugees and/or invasion a la "the Sea Peoples".
India is emptying out. They are all moving to the US and Canada.
ReplyDeleteWe haven't even soaked up their excess births.
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