Qatar Questions Defense Ties With U.S. After Israeli Attack

The New York Times reports: "Gulf Powers Question U.S. Protection After Israeli Attack on Qatari Soil." From the lede:

    Qatar hosts the largest American military base in the Middle East, has bought billions of dollars worth of defense systems from the United States and recently gifted a luxury Boeing jet to President Trump.

    Yet on Tuesday, none of that stopped Israel, a key U.S. ally, from launching a brazen military attack on Qatari soil. It was an attempt to assassinate senior Hamas officials who had gathered to discuss a cease-fire proposal to pause the war in Gaza — a deal that was backed by Mr. Trump.

    “Qatar being unable to protect its own citizens with literally the U.S. Central Command on its territory has prompted locals to question the value of the American partnership,” said Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a research group. “It’s a real problem for Gulf leaders. And it should worry the United States as well.”    

The article mentions that the U.S. only notified Qatar about the attack ten minutes after it had happened (although to be fair, "US President Donald Trump said he was not notified in advance of the attack, and it was a decision made solely by the Israeli prime minister."). The Times article continues:

    The country’s willingness to launch an attack in a Gulf state marks a potential turning point for the region, which has long been dominated by American alliances and interests.

    “This is a litmus test,” said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University. If Gulf rulers “don’t do anything forceful now, they will only be part of an Israeli orbit of power and an Israel-led regional order.”

* * *

    The attack is also likely to undermine Mr. Trump’s hopes to expand the Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered deals in 2020 that saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establish diplomatic ties with Israel — agreements that the president viewed as one of the crowning foreign policy achievements of his first term.

    Qatar was not part of the accords, and has had tensions with some of its Gulf neighbors.

    But the attack on Tuesday united the Gulf countries in condemnation of Israel, and stirred mutual fears about their vulnerability. Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Emirati ruler, traveled to Qatar for a state visit on Wednesday with his powerful national security adviser, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed.

    “U.S. partners and U.S. policymakers themselves are coming to the late realization that Israel’s militant mindset is a threat to the entire region,” said Joseph Farsakh, a former U.S. State Department official focused on the Arabian Peninsula.   

This is yet another example of how Israel is a "frenemy" that is a threat to U.S. interests in the Middle-East and stability in the region. 

     But we must also consider how Israel was able to carry out the attack without either Qatar or U.S. air defense able to provide any warning. This article from the Australian Broadcasting Company relates:

    Israeli media are reporting that the strikes involved 15 Israeli fighter jets, firing 10 munitions against a single target.

    Ahmed Hashim, professor of war studies at Deakin University, said Israel had intelligence tentacles that reached far across the region.

    Professor Hashim, who stressed that his views were his own, said it was likely that Israel used its modified Adir version of the US F-35 fighter jets, accompanied by its customised F-15I Ra'ams for "air cover".

    Israel usually keeps about 46 Adir F-35 jets at its Nevatim air base, which is 2,250 kilometres from Doha, Professor Hashim said. 

    The Adirs can be fitted with fuel tanks that allow them to fly about 2,200km, but they do not need to be flown all the way to a target.

    "The missiles would do the job from a stand-off distance," Professor Hashim said. 

    "I don't think the planes were over the Doha district. They struck from a distance with precision. And I think they were guided there by intelligence provided by ground."

Nevertheless, the article notes, "[t]he jets would have needed to fly over Saudi Arabia, and most likely Jordan, to reach Qatar." 

    In other words, the aircraft apparently were able to evade air defense systems the U.S. provided to Saudi Arabia as well as the ones used by American forces in Qatar, which begs the question of what's to stop Israel from pulling off an attack against U.S. forces such as their attack on the U.S.S. Liberty? And have Israeli spies stolen information about our air defense systems that makes it easier for Israel to bypass them? 

    But even if U.S. forces had detected the aircraft prior to the missile launches, the article notes that it is unlikely that U.S. forces would have engaged the Israeli aircraft. But that raises a problem:

    Qatar and many of its neighbours have relatively small militaries, and the incident has raised doubts about historical US security guarantees for its Gulf Arab allies.

    After the strike, Mr Trump spoke to both Mr Netanyahu and the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.

    He assured Qatar's leader that "such a thing will not happen again on their soil," adding he felt "very badly" about the location of the attack.

But how will Trump be able to guarantee that? This incident illustrates that the U.S. is either unwilling or unable to control Israel. And if Trump does try to keep Israel on a leash, will Israel change his mind in the same way they changed JFK's mind about allowing Israel to pursue a nuclear weapon's program?

    This incident has the potential to gravely harm U.S. interests in the Middle-East. It is time that the U.S. reevaluate its relationship with Israel and take steps to identify how deeply Israel has penetrated the U.S. government and military and take steps to rectify the situation. And to anyone that suggests that Israel is our "friend," I would point out the following quote from 19th-century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston, who stated, "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow". 

• Related:  While no members of Congress have complained about Israel's airstrike of Qatar, the situation is different after Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace: "South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson, senior member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, called the incursion 'an act of war'."