Over at PJ Media, Matt Margolis notes that "2020’s Most Accurate Pollster Released a New Poll... And It Is Weird." According to the poll by AtlasIntel, Trump is leading Kamala Harris nationally by about 3%. But digging into certain of the swing states reveals some anomalies. Margolis writes:
The main issue lies in the disconnect between Trump’s national lead and the battleground state data. If Trump truly has a two- to three-point edge across the country, he should be performing significantly better in swing states than this poll suggests.
Instead, the poll shows Harris holding onto narrow leads in several key battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Wisconsin. It’s unlikely that any GOP candidate could have a solid national lead without also sweeping or dominating in these critical states.
Things get even more puzzling when you dive deeper into the specific state results. The poll shows Trump up by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, 2.9 in Michigan, and 1.7 in Georgia in head-to-head matchups, while Harris leads by slim margins in states like Arizona and North Carolina. These numbers don’t quite add up. For one, it seems unlikely that Georgia would poll to the right of North Carolina and to the left of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Another strange finding is that Trump’s largest leads are in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A strong lead in these states would logically bode better for him in Wisconsin, where AtlasIntel shows Kamala slightly ahead.
I’m just finding it hard to believe that Trump will perform better in Pennsylvania and Michigan than in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In order for AtlasIntel to have had the most accurate polls for 2020, it's polls would have had to be looking at more than just registered voters or likely voters. It somehow had a way of accounting for the discrepancies in the 2020 election. I would suggest, therefore, that any seeming anomalies in the polling for this election is because AtlasIntel is, once again, capturing some of the discrepancies we will see in this election.
The voting during the day just tells them how many votes they have to steal at night.
ReplyDeleteLOL. So true.
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