Israel To Sit Out The Rest Of The War?

Zero Hedge reported on some comments from Israel's finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich--the second most powerful cabinet member according to the article--with the article relating (bold in original):

    “The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States," far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a session at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility, which endorses Jewish settlement in Palestinian territories. "The current situation is the best one for us.”

[snip]

    In his latest remarks, Smotrich candidly acknowledged that Israel and the United States have different goals vis a vis Iran, but said America's continued military engagement furthers the Israeli agenda. “[We] must remember that the ultimate goal of Israel, and not necessarily the United States, is to undermine and weaken the regime in Iran – to the point of overthrowing it,” Smotrich said. 

    Disregarding the widespread victimization of innocents that the strategy entails, Smotrich said destruction of Iran's economy will help precipitate the Iranian government's collapse. "Currently, inflation in Iran is at 85 percent, food inflation of over 134 percent in a total of four months, and the Iranian rial is trading at an exchange rate of 1.9 million to the dollar - and it's going up." He then reiterated that "the current situation is good for us, and there's no point in pushing ourselves inward."  

That might work if the economic collapse was not clearly the result of outside agents; but, as Germany and Japan illustrated during WWII, economic woes will not spark a rebellion when there is a clear enemy to blame. 

    The article also recounts comments from an Israeli journalist opining that Israel staying out of the fight makes it less of a target for Iranian attacks, allowing daily life to continue and saving the country billions of shekels for air operations or interceptions of incoming missiles. 

    Larry C. Johnson at Sonar21 suggests another reason for Israel pulling back is because both of its oil refineries were damaged earlier in the conflict and now Israel faces a shortage of diesel and jet fuel; and any further damage to the refineries would severely limit Israel's ability to continue military operations in Gaza or Lebanon. And yet another source, quoting the Wall Street Journal, indicates that the U.S., under pressure from Arab states, asked Israel to sit out the war in hopes that doing so will keep Iran from striking more of the Arab states' energy infrastructure, and make it politically easier for those states to join in attacks against Iran. 

    I think this is a good example of the maxim "countries do not have friends, only interests". Israel's interests were to (i) destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, which the United States has pretty much already done for it; and (ii) eliminate the Palestinians, which is easier to do if (a) the United States is distracted with Iran and (b) Israel can concentrate its efforts on Gaza and Lebanon. Besides, it increasingly appears that we are moving toward having boots on the ground in Iran; and there was no way that Israel was ever going to be part of that effort if for no other reason then it would outrage Muslims around the world. The best we can hope for is a limited invasion to capture the territory adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, followed by an extended occupation of that territory by a coalition of Arab states. 

    The question that needs to be asked is what are the United States' interests? I would say that our interests are limited to keeping open the Gulf of Arabia and the Strait of Hormuz to the free transit of oil, which was the situation before the war but is now impossible because of the war. And the reason we are in this situation is because our leaders lost sight of our interests and/or believed that Israel's interests were the same as ours.