Reading through WRSA yesterday, I noticed that Matt Bracken believes that, with the recent attack by Ukraine on an Iranian freighter in the Caspian Sea, we are already in another world war. It is something worth considering. I will say that while I don't believe we are quite there--after all, we aren't trading missiles with Russia--but it could easily slide that way.
One of the reasons I don't think we are there yet is because the public statements from Ukraine tie the attack on the Iranian vessel to Ukraine's war with Russia rather than as an extension of the U.S. conflict with Iran. CNBC reports:
Iran summoned a Ukrainian diplomat in Tehran on Sunday to protest an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, as the war in the Middle East threatened to overlap with the Ukraine conflict.
Iran said the attack left one sailor dead and injured several others. The country’s foreign ministry complained to Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Tehran early on Sunday and “conveyed Iran’s strong protest over the ‘hostile and criminal act.’” Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
In a post on X highlighting Ukraine’s attacks on distant Russian targets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that his country’s forces “also achieved very strong results with long‑range strikes in the Caspian Sea – including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship.”
Russia has long used Iranian-designed Shahed drones in its war on Ukraine, a weapon that analysts sometimes refer to as “the poor man’s cruise missile.”
But it is not necessarily as simple as Ukraine striking Iranian shipping as a means of interdicting Iranian shipments of war material to Russia. From Fortune Magazine:
Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the think tank SWP Berlin, ran through different interpretations of Ukraine’s strike on the Iranian ship.
One is that Ukraine wants to demonstrate its value as a partner to the U.S., which supplies vital weapons like Patriot air-defense interceptors, adding that the operation couldn’t have happened without a green light from Washington and other Western partners, he explained on X.
Another view is that Israel and the U.S. asked Ukraine to pressure Iran on their behalf amid concerns that any attacks they make on Iranian infrastructure would trigger retaliation against regional economic assets.
A third interpretation is that Ukraine’s attack was in response to Houthi rebels threatening ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which Saudi Arabia has relied on to export its oil and bypass the Strait of Hormuz. [Ed: Ukraine entered into a security agreement with Saudi Arabia in March].
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is another vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The Iran-backed Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea this past week, causing Saudi Arabia to strike the Yemeni port city of Hodeida.
“In other words, the Caspian front, together with the Indian Ocean — where the United States has imposed a maritime blockade on Iran — is now intended to complete a ring of economic and military pressure around the country,” Azizi wrote.
He added that Iran is also worried Ukrainian intelligence services may support ethnic insurgent groups against Tehran, similar to Kyiv’s approach in Syria against the Assad regime.
To respond to Ukraine’s involvement, Iran could launch its own direct attacks against Ukraine-linked vessels in other sea lanes or against Ukrainian infrastructure. Tehran could also recognize Crimea and the Donbas as parts of Russian territory.
“In any case, what is clear is that Iran’s war is becoming increasingly intertwined with two other conflicts: the Saudi-Houthi confrontation and the Russia-Ukraine war,” Azizi warned. “With each passing day, the war is evolving into an increasingly complex, multidimensional, and international conflict.”
No comments:
Post a Comment