VIDEO: China's Population Is Collapsing

China Uncensored's latest video returns to the topic of China's demographic collapse evidenced by the dramatic decline in the number of pre-schools and kindergartens, as well as some discussion of failed efforts by the CCP to increase birth rates. His thinking on why the Chinese refuse to have more children tracks my thoughts on the general decline in fertility rates: children have become a luxury that most young people can't or won't pay for. 

    On the other end, China is seeing deaths outpace births. The Rhodium Group published a paper earlier this year that predicts that China's population will decline by more than 60 million people in the next decade--roughly the population of France.  The report goes on to note that:

The headlines are bad, the regional breakdown is worse. The country’s most developed provinces are seeing falling populations, which will impact overall consumption and the future productivity of the labor force. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. The fiscal subsidy to social security funds rose to a record 2.9 trillion yuan last year, or 10.1% of general budget spending, and appears set to rise in the future. 

It also states:

    The drop in China’s birth rate in the 2020s has been shocking, even in the context of continuous declines since 2018. The ratio of new births to total population reached only 0.563% last year, compared to 1.199% a decade ago in 2015. The total of 7.92 million new births for the full year was the lowest level since 7.57 million in 1939, when China’s population was closer to 400-500 million people.

    Admittedly, the number of women of child-bearing age has declined by 13% over the past decade to 213.7 million, but new births more than halved over the same interval. This reflects changes in behavior and preferences, as policy is now pro-natalist and has been far less restrictive since 2016, when the one-child policy was formally abandoned.

    Chinese citizens’ decisions to marry and have children later in life are the main reasons behind the collapse in new births. The average age of people married rose to 34 years old in 2024, from 32.4 in 2018. As a result, the number of marriages declined by 40% from 2018 levels to only 6.1 million in 2024 (Figure 2). The average age of women bearing children increased to 30.1 years old in 2024, from 28.4 in 2018. These trends correlate well with additional education and economic advancements in other countries, and these factors are likely having an effect in China as well.

    Another more recent factor that may be depressing births is the change in employment conditions. Alongside weaker economic growth, more workers have shifted to the gig economy, which does not provide security nor stable incomes. Additional discussions of potential AI-related job losses may be contributing to popular insecurity and uncertainty, which feed back into the birth rate as well. Social phenomena such as “lying flat,” “letting it rot,” or other societal trends developing within China’s youth also may be contributing to reductions in stable relationships and willingness to have children.

It doesn't help that China is an atheistic country as there is a strong correlation between religiosity and birth rates. (See also, "China’s Population Decline – The Impact on Business, the Economy, and Labor Markets" from China-Briefing). 

     China faces its own pension crises as well because of fewer workers to support a growing population of retirees. The Diplomat goes over this in a Feb. 11, 2026, article entitled "As China Ages, a Pension Crisis Looms." A key point:

    By 2040, roughly 402 million people in China are expected to be over the age of 60, more than a quarter of the population. By comparison, the total population of the United States is expected to reach around 379 million by that time. This shift marks a turning point for China, signaling the erosion of its long-standing advantage in abundant and affordable labor while presenting a formidable financial challenge in caring for an aging society. 

    These demographic pressures prompted China to begin a gradual adjustment of its statutory retirement age in 2025, the first such change in more than seven decades. The retirement age for men will gradually increase from 60 to 63 over a 15-year period while the retirement age for women will rise from 55 to 58, with adjustments varying by occupation. While delaying retirement may ease fiscal strain, it does little to alter the underlying demographic arithmetic driving the crisis. 

VIDEO: "China's Population is Collapsing"
China Uncensored (7 min.)