Kyle Lamb Discusses Using the AR For Home Defense

The American Rifleman has published a brief interview with Kyle Lamb about using the AR-15 for home defense. (H/t TTAG). The article is presented by the American Rifleman editors as advocating the AR over other types of commonly used weapons for self defense. However, after reading it a couple times, I realized that was not Lamb's intent. In fact, he stated in the interview that  "as an unbending supporter of the Second Amendment I am in favor of whatever you prefer, are comfortable with, or can afford." Rather, the article is a response to the naysayers who contend that the AR is unsuited to home defense.

With that, I would like to go through his article and interject my own thoughts on the pro's and con's of using a carbine or rifle in home defense.

Lamb's reasons for using the AR system is that it is easy to shoot, accurate, with low recoil.  He does not believe that the shotgun is the best firearm for home defense because the semi-auto versions are not reliable enough, and the pump actions can't be operated with only one-hand; also, the AR (even with a 10-round magazine) packs more firepower. As for handguns, he says:

If you are among those who say, “If I can’t fix the problem with my eight rounds of .45 ACP, it can’t be fixed,” I say please grab a big old mug of black coffee and wake up from your dream. No one knows who, what, when, where or why the fight will start—blowhard statements only degrade an intelligent conversation.

Once again, focusing on reality, 5.56x45 mm NATO ammunition just plain works. There are literally thousands upon thousands of terrorists who have met their ends because of it. Apparently, they did not have a chance to read the latest gun blog decrying the lack of stopping power from the 5.56.

“Pistols point faster,” is a common proclamation, and it can be true if you already have your hands on the gun. However, the last part of that statement is often overlooked: “Pistols point faster, and miss more often.” Although we can quickly get the pistol into the fight, the carbine will get there and be more shootable for the average person. With a carbine in the low-ready position, the average shooter can get shots on target in less than one second. Of course, that is the reaction time once you have made the determination that you should, in fact, shoot. It does not take into consideration the fact that you will have to work your way through a decision-making process that includes threat identification.

The article goes on to address or respond to some specific issues of using a carbine, and tips on running the AR. (I would also recommend Lamb's book, Green Eyes, Black Rifles, for anyone using an AR or thinking about using an AR).

So, with that out of the way, let me add some thoughts on the pro's and con's of using a rifle or carbine:

First, accuracy. Lamb is obviously correct that you are not going to get the same level of accuracy from a handgun as you will from a rifle; and the multiple projectiles from a shotgun preclude the same level of accuracy. However, you must also consider the level of accuracy that you need.  Massad Ayoob has previously addressed this argument, writing:

For you, it won't happen on a battlefield where the nearest Soviet soldier is 600 meters away behind a French hedgerow. For you, it will happen at point-blank range. Studies by the FBI show that the great majority of shoot-outs occur at a range of 7 yards or less, and more commonly at about 7 feet. And this is among police, whose statistics include running gunfights on the highway and long-distance gunfire exchanges with snipers and barricaded felons.

The civilian, almost always, will fight his opponent face-to-face. In that close space he won't be able to bring a rifle or shotgun up before the attacker can take two steps forward and stab, club, or disarm him, or fire his own illegal gun. ...

(The Truth About Self Protection, p. 346). To me, a small apartment where it would be physically impossible to engage anyone at more than 20 feet is a whole different proposition from a 5,000 square foot open plan house where you may be looking at distances of 75 feet or more inside the home, or a rural property where you may be poking around a barnyard to see what disturbed the chickens. Some environments may allow, or demand, something with greater accuracy than a handgun; but I doubt that the Average Joe lives in a home requiring that degree of long range accuracy.

Second, ease of use. To me, this depends. I can't think of any firearm where the controls are more easily manipulated than a Glock or similar handgun, and I think the 1911 is at least as easy to manipulate as an AR. Ease of use is more than just operating the weapon, but also maneuvering with the weapon, and I'm not convinced that moving through the tight confines of the typical apartment or home is easier with an AR than a handgun. I've run mock clearing drills through my house with carbines and handguns, and there are areas were because of the location of the doorways and the proximity of another wall, I cannot negotiate the doorway/corner with a carbine at a ready position, whereas I can with a handgun. Perhaps an SBR would work better, but, like most people, I'm using something with a barrel of 16+ inches in length. This is something that you really need to test yourself before choosing.

Third, Lamb is dismissive of the noise from an AR, suggesting that a .40 S&W is loud, and that the reader could look into obtaining a silencer. All other things being equal, a 5.56 carbine (particularly a short barreled carbine), is going to have more noise and blast than a typical handgun, especially if you discharge it in the tight confines of a narrow interior hallway or other small space. (If your preferred handgun is the .454 Casull, ignore what I just wrote). Other than .22 LR, I haven't fired a rifle in a building (the only indoor ranges I've used have been for handgun and/or .22 rifle), so again I must defer to Massad Ayoob's comments:

Fire a high-powered rifle in an enclosed room and the blast is literally deafening: the muzzle flash looks like a grenade explosion. It will stun and disorient the user and can even cause some degree of permanent hearing damage.

(The Truth About Self Protection, p. 342). What I can say is that I've stood next to or near many people firing different rifles at gun ranges and in the field, and the noise and blast from a .223 without a muzzle device is spectacular--you can sometimes even see the fireball in the daylight; and in the evening it is truly awesome. Flash-hiders are very effective at reducing flash, but the noise remains. And recoil compensator just makes the noise worse for anyone to the sides of the rifle--and in a tight space, reflect that noise back to the shooter. I supposes some may argue that you can put on hearing protections, but if the front door has crashed open and the burglar alarm is already going off, will you have, or take, the time?

Fourth, sight acquisition. At longer ranges, the sight acquisition using a red-dot on a carbine will be faster than the iron sights of a handgun because of the single focal plane. At short ranges, I don't know if it will make much of a difference: I had recently read (although I can't find the article) that for short ranges requiring quick shots, the red dot sight on a handgun was inferior to relying on the front sight. The ability to see the red-dot in low light is probably its biggest advantage for home defense.

Fifth, over-penetration. I think Lamb is being too kind to the AR detractors on this issue. There have been plenty of tests showing that handguns, particularly when using the heavier hollow-point bullets, will penetrate sheet rock better than the 5.56. (See, e.g., here, here, here and here). This test from Recoil magazine seems fairly typical:

Nine walls were constructed and spaced 4 yards apart.  Walls 1-8 were constructed of 2 ½” sheets of drywall. Wall 9 was constructed of 1 ½” drywall, 1 sheet of 7/16 inch plywood, 3” of soft insulation, 9/16” hard insulation and 1/16 hard plastic siding.  The test was designed to replicate an average home.  When bullets started flying, the 147 Grain 9mm consistently penetrated all 9 walls.  The 165 grain .40 S&W consistently penetrated all 9 walls.  The 55 grain .223 has a maximum penetration of 8 walls (fired from an M16, M4A1 and a H&K G36) the 62 grain bonded 5.56 (fired from the same weapons) had a maximum penetration of 8 walls.

If over-penetration is a concern, you are probably better off using the AR with light weight (i.e., 55 grain) hollow-point ammunition.

Sixth, Lamb states that carrying the carbine around a battlefield is much easier than a handgun because the carbine only requires a sling, while the methods of carrying a handgun are more complicated. In my mind, in the context of home defense, this is a non-issue. No one is going to home-carry a carbine, even if they can sling it over his/her shoulder; and if someone is grabbing the gun in the middle of the night, the issue of a holster or sling is a moot point.

Seventh. I don't see how anyone can disagree that the 5.56 round is going to be more effective, in terms of terminal ballistics, than a handgun (unless when shooting through walls--see some of the articles on barrier penetration cited above). The AR wins hands down.

Eighth. The magazine capacity of an AR (at 30 rounds) is definitely superior to the typical magazine capacity of a handgun. There are plenty of accounts of home invasions by multiple assailants, or perps being shot multiple times without any seeming effect, which tend to favor the carbine. (See my post "6-Reasons Why You Need a 30-Round Magazine"). But there are those 30-round Glock magazines ....

Ninth. Lamb obliquely discusses reliability of the AR on several points versus other types of weapons. I'll just say that, at least when discussing a semi-auto, that the AR is probably going to be more forgiving of incorrect posture or grip than a semi-auto handgun. I'm not saying that it is impossible to "limp-wrist" an AR, but that I've never seen it happen.

Tenth. Lamb seems to sidestep maneuverability and weapon retention issues, which are really important in the home defense context. Lamb seems to think that if you use the gun, the perp is going to die. But what if the perp surrenders without a shot, or is wounded, and you are trying to dial 911 while holding him/her at gun point? Or what if you turn a corner and find yourself face-to-face with a perp? Handguns are much easier to operate one-handed, or retain control of in a struggle, than a long arm. For instance, Massad Ayoob writes on this issue:

It is easier to get a shotgun or rifle away from someone than a pistol even if they're holding it with both hands. As any military recruit has been taught, all you have to do is grab the barrel and the stock farther out than the person holding it, and you have enough leverage to twist it out of their grasp. It is far, far easier to do this to a homeowner who has one hand on the shotgun and the other hand occupied by the telephone.

.(The Truth About Self Protection, p. 333).

So, in the end, the issue of AR versus handgun seems to be a wash--there are good and bad points, advantages and disadvantages to both. Frankly, I keep both a handgun and carbine available for use.

New Martial Arts Technique: The Tongue Punch

Another humorous close quarter technique from Master Ken:

Bill Whittle: "Be Prepared"

Some preparedness advice from Bill Whittle:

"War stuff cut in half!"

A photo essay at War History Online. Guns, grenades, even a tank, cut in half so you can see what it looks like inside.

Unmarked Surveillance Aircraft

An article entitled "Mysterious low-flying plane over Twin Cities raises questions of surveillance," triggered an aviation buff to investigate how a small plane was being used over Minneapolis-St. Paul, and other cities. From the article:

Bristow, just outside Washington, D.C.’s Beltway, has 65 planes registered there, the bulk of them small Cessna 182s registered to a handful of companies with two- or three-letter acronyms in their names, like LCB Leasing. 

Zimmerman, who spotted the plane over Bloomington, said he pored through FAA records to find the call letters for each plane and then searched for images of them. He found photographs that show the planes outfitted with “external pods” that could house imagery equipment. He also found some of the planes modified with noise-muffling capability. That’s not common for a small plane, he said.

“The fact is there are several very powerful surveillance technologies that are deployed by fixed-wing aircraft circling over cities,” said Jay Stanley, a senior policy analyst with the ACLU. “These are powerful surveillance technologies that we think the public ought to have a role in discussing and debating.”

The planes use “persistent wide-area surveillance” to photograph large areas for hours at a time, Stanley said. The captured images allow authorities to go back in time, if necessary, to trace pedestrians and vehicles who come to their attention.

Other devices known as “dirtboxes,” “Stingrays” or “IMSI catchers” can capture cellphone data. Stanley said it’s still unclear what technologies have been used in the surveillance flights.

Zimmerman said he’s in favor of using technology to fight crime but criticized the government’s secretive approach, the same criticism that was leveled in Boston when a city made skittish by the marathon bombing had to wonder why planes were flying low overhead at night.

“Why don’t we just say these are official things, rather than clouding them in three-letter contract companies?” Zimmerman asked. “I would feel better if these guys just flew the colors. I think we would all be better off.”

More Evidence of the Coming Ice Age

From The Daily Caller:

A new study out of the United Kingdom predicts the Earth is about to go through a major climatic shift that could mean decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.

Scientists at the University of Southampton predict that a cooling of the Atlantic Ocean could cool global temperatures a half a degree Celsius and may offer a “brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures,” according to their study.

This cooling phase in the Atlantic will influence “temperature, rainfall, drought and even the frequency of hurricanes in many regions of the world,” says Dr. Gerard McCarthy. The study’s authors based their results on ocean sensor arrays and 100 years of sea-level data.

* * *

“The observations of [AMO] from [sensor arrays], over the past ten years, show that it is declining,” Dr. David Smeed, a co-author, said in a statement. “As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”

Researchers argue that a negative AMO will bring “drier summers in Britain and Ireland, accelerated sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States, and drought in the developing countries of the Sahel region,” according to the study’s press release. Interestingly enough, the study also predicts fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S.– a result of a cooler Atlantic.

Atlantic cooling can impact the climate for decades, according to researchers, on timescales from 20 to 30 years. This means cooler global temperatures and changing weather patterns could unfold over the next two to three decades, possibly extending the so-called “pause” in global warming.

* * *

Some scientists, however, have been arguing the world is indeed headed for a cooling phase based on solar cycles. Scientists from Germany to India have argued that weakening solar activity could bring about another “Little Ice Age.”

Quotable Quote: Science Fraud

The Powerline blog has been publishing a series looking at fraud in science--specifically, underlying papers published in scientific journals. A recent article included the following quotation from Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet:

The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness. . .

(Underline added). (See also Retraction Watch, which attempts to document retractions made by science journals).

Rumors of War

"High profile military analyst and former US Naval War College lecturer John Schindler tweeted last week: “Said a senior NATO (non-US) GOFO to me today: ‘We’ll probably be at war this summer. If we’re lucky it won’t be nuclear.’"

Quotable Quote--Safety Is Not A Virtue

I care deeply about my children’s safety. But safety is just one important thing to teach our children. And it’s not even anywhere near the most important thing. Keeping your kids from dying or getting hurt is of secondary importance to teaching them how to live. Safety isn’t even a virtue. If you’re teaching your kids more about safety than you are about honesty, kindness, respect for others, responsibility, gratitude, integrity, cooperation, determination, social skills, enthusiasm, compassion and manners, you’re doing it wrong.

--from "What Your Neighborhood List-Serv Tells You About The Demise of America" by Molly Hemingway.

John Mosby Writes About Knives as Combat Weapons

Interesting article. (H/t Active Response Training)

"Pentagon report predicted West’s support for Islamist rebels would create ISIS"

An article from Insurge-Intelligence describing yet another "the end justify the means" failure of policy. From the article:

A declassified secret US government document obtained by the conservative public interest law firm, Judicial Watch, shows that Western governments deliberately allied with al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremist groups to topple Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad.

The document reveals that in coordination with the Gulf states and Turkey, the West intentionally sponsored violent Islamist groups to destabilize Assad, and that these “supporting powers” desired the emergence of a “Salafist Principality” in Syria to “isolate the Syrian regime.”

According to the newly declassified US document, the Pentagon foresaw the likely rise of the ‘Islamic State’ as a direct consequence of this strategy, and warned that it could destabilize Iraq. Despite anticipating that Western, Gulf state and Turkish support for the “Syrian opposition” — which included al-Qaeda in Iraq — could lead to the emergence of an ‘Islamic State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the document provides no indication of any decision to reverse the policy of support to the Syrian rebels. On the contrary, the emergence of an al-Qaeda affiliated “Salafist Principality” as a result is described as a strategic opportunity to isolate Assad.

* * *

The conventional wisdom is that the US government did not retain sufficient oversight on the funding to anti-Assad rebel groups, which was supposed to be monitored and vetted to ensure that only ‘moderate’ groups were supported.

However, the newly declassified Pentagon report proves unambiguously that years before ISIS launched its concerted offensive against Iraq, the US intelligence community was fully aware that Islamist militants constituted the core of Syria’s sectarian insurgency.

Despite that, the Pentagon continued to support the Islamist insurgency, even while anticipating the probability that doing so would establish an extremist Salafi stronghold in Syria and Iraq.

As Shoebridge told me, “The documents show that not only did the US government at the latest by August 2012 know the true extremist nature and likely outcome of Syria’s rebellion” — namely, the emergence of ISIS — “but that this was considered an advantage for US foreign policy. This also suggests a decision to spend years in an effort to deliberately mislead the West’s public, via a compliant media, into believing that Syria’s rebellion was overwhelmingly ‘moderate.’”

Ultimate Survival Technologies 2400 Calorie Emergency Food Ration Bars

I'm glad to announce another guest post from the Realist:

 The front of an UST Emergency Food
Ration Bar package

A couple months ago, my local Walmart started selling UST emergency food ration bars for five dollars each. This was the first time I had seen emergency food bars like this sold in a major retail outlet. In the past, I had only seen them sold mail-order or in a specialty store.

Since I first saw them at Walmart, I have bought a few of them to add to my long-term food storage. During a recent trip to Walmart, I decided to buy a few more, and discovered that one of the packages on the shelf had lost its vacuum seal (more on this later). Since I knew it was fresh stock, instead of putting the damaged package back on the shelf, I decided to buy it and actually try them out. (Yes, I know. I should have tried one out first before buying several packages.)

The UST emergency food ration bars are manufactured in the U.S. by Mayday Industries, who have been selling emergency food ration bars under their own name for many years.

Each 2400 calorie bar is scored to be broken into six individual servings of 400 calories each. Each serving contains 18 grams of fat (including 9 grams of saturated fat), 54 grams of carbohydrates, 7 grams of protein, and a variety of vitamins and minerals. The manufacturer claims their emergency food ration bars have a five year shelf life. (From previous research on this type of emergency food ration bar, that is five years storage in a harsh environment, and not five years in a dark cool room.) Here is the Mayday web page on their 2400 calorie food bar, which looks identical to the UST product: http://www.maydayorders.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=FB24M

A food ration bar before it has been broken into individual servings.

The food bar appears to have been baked, but is very crumbly when broken and eaten. As described on the package, it has a mild apple cinnamon flavor, and is not quite as sweet as a shortbread. The bar is very dry, and while not thirst provoking, it is best consumed with a drink of some sort. I was mildly hungry when I started eating it, and was pleasantly surprised to find that the one serving left me feeling full and satisfied. In contrast, 400 calories of cookies or candy would have left me craving more.

As eluded to above, each food bar is vacuum sealed in a heavy laminated plastic-foil package. While this packaging is quite impervious to a variety of contaminants, it is surprisingly fragile. The vacuum process leaves sharp corners and bends in the packaging material, and trying to flatten out a crease or bend for better storage in an emergency kit can create a pin-hole breach of the material, causing the package to loose its vacuum. When this happens, air and moisture will be let in, dramatically shortening the shelf-life of the food bar.

If you loose vacuum while handling the package, I would recommend eating it soon as practical. If you don't know when the vacuum was lost, either carefully inspect the food (check to see if it is rancid, moldy, or mushy) before eating it or discard it.

The package on the left has lost its vacuum. Note the sharp textures visible on the package on the right relative to the package on the left that has lost its vacuum.

Previously, I had put similarly vacuum packed Datrex emergency food ration bars in the emergency kit in my vehicle. To reduce the risk of compromising the vacuum, I carefully wrapped each package in several layers of heavy plastic cling wrap and packing tape (tape over the cling wrap to reinforce corners and edges) to immobilize the vacuum packaging. Don't be surprised if you compromise the vacuum on one of the food bars while trying to immobilize the vacuum packaging - I lost one that way, and I was being careful. I just checked (at the time of this writing), and after two-and-a-half years bouncing around in the emergency kit in the back of my vehicle, the vacuum packaging on the Datrex bars is still intact.

Since there is no practical way to close the packaging after it has been opened, I would recommend including one or more one-gallon zip-lock freezer bags to store any uneaten portion of the food bar. Zip-lock freezer bags can serve numerous other purposes in an emergency kit, too.

There is a lot to be said for an emergency food source that has a long shelf life, is tolerant of less than ideal storage conditions, can be eaten without preparation, and doesn't cost a small fortune. As an added bonus, it is available at Walmart for a very reasonable price. Try one out. I'm sure you will be pleasantly surprised and want to add some of these emergency food ration bars to your emergency preparations.

Bon appetit!

Memorial Day

Arlington National Cemetery 2008 (Source) 

The Bivouac of the Dead

The muffled drum's sad roll has beat

The soldier's last tattoo;

No more on life's parade shall meet

The brave and daring few.

On Fame's eternal camping-ground

Their silent tents are spread,

And Glory guards with solemn round

The bivouac of the dead.

No rumour of the foe's advance

Now swells upon the wind;

No troubled thought at midnight haunts

Of loved ones left behind;

No vision of the morrow's strife

The warrior's dream alarms;

No braying horn nor screaming fife

At dawn shall call to arms.

Their shivered swords are red with rust,

Their plumed heads are bowed;

Their haughty banner trailed in dust

Is now their martial shroud,

And plenteous funeral tears have washed

The red stains from each brow,

And their proud forms in battle gashed

Are free from anguish now.

The neighing steed, the flashing blade,

The trumpet's stirring blast,

The charge, the dreadful cannonade,

The din and shout are past;

No war's wild note, nor glory's peal,

Shall thrill with fierce delight

Those breasts that never more shall feel

The rapture of the fight.

Like the dread northern hurricane

That sweeps this broad plateau,

Flushed with the triumph yet to gain

Came down the serried foe;

Our heros felt the shock, and leapt

To meet them on the plain;

And long the pitying sky hath wept

Above our gallant slain.

Sons of our consecrated ground,

Ye must not slumber there,

Where stranger steps and tongues resound

Along the heedless air.

Your own proud land's heroic soil

Shall be your fitter grave;

She claims from War his richest spoil -

The ashes of her brave.

So 'neath their parent turf they rest,

Far from the gory field;

Borne to a Spartan mother's breast

On many a bloody shield;

The sunshine of their native sky

Smiles sadly on them here,

And kindred hearts and eyes watch by

The heroes' sepulcher.

Rest on, embalmed and sainted dead!

Dear as the blood you gave,

No impious footsteps here shall tread

The herbage of your grave;

Nor shall your glory be forgot

While Fame her record keeps,

Or Honor points the hallowed spot

Where Valor proudly sleeps.

Yon marble minstrel's voiceless stone

In deathless songs shall tell,

When many a vanished age hath flown,

The story how ye fell;

Nor wreck, nor change, or winter's blight

Not Time's remorseless doom,

Shall dim one ray of holy light

That gilds your glorious tomb.

           -- Theodore O'Hara

Currently Free on Amazon: "Tragedy and Hope" by Carroll Quigley

Carroll Quigley's book, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time, is currently available for free for the Kindle.Amazon indicates that "Carroll Quigley (1910-1977) was a highly respected professor at the School of Foreign Service at Gerogetown University. He was an instructor at Princeton and Harvard; a consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, the House Committee on Astronautics and Space Exploration; and the U.S. Navy." He was also the preeminent historian of his time. Although Tragedy and Hope was written in the 1960's, it is probably one of the most significant and complete histories of how the current international financial and political order was created. (Some of you may know that Tragedy and Hope was the book that W. Cleon Skousen reviewed and commented on in his book, The Naked Capitalist). It has not been a widely available book, so this is a good opportunity to read it.

As always, I would note that these deals on Amazon can end abruptly (I once ordered a book that went from "free" to "$3.99" sometime between my opening the web page and when I placed an order about a minute later).

Sao Paulo's Drought

(Source)

Last year's drought in Sao Paulo, Brazil, was the worst in some 80 years, leading to water shortages bad enough to cause rioting and unrest in some towns earlier this year. Apparently there was some limited respite with the annual rains in February, but it was not enough. Brazil is heading into the dry season with reservoir levels at only 30%.

The International Business Times reported earlier this month that " the city’s reservoirs are at just 27 percent capacity, down from 40 percent in May 2014. Other reservoirs that aren’t at dangerously low levels are too polluted for human use." The article went on to state:

Arguments have broken out among some water-strapped residents living in the city’s crowded apartment buildings in the midst of water rationing, Claire Rigby, a British journalist based in São Paulo, reported. Other city dwellers whose water was turned off for large chunks of the day took to the streets in February to protest the government turning off their taps.

Leaders met last week to discuss handling São Paulo’s worsening water crisis, with some raising concerns over a collapse in social order as residents become increasingly desperate. Officials pointed to the city of Itu, which broke out in intense protests and looting last year during the drought. “If a small city like Itu unleashed all of that in such a short time, imagine what could happen in a city like [São Paulo,]” Paulo Massato, engineer at São Paulo’s water facility, said during the conference, according to La Nueva Televisora del Sur.

Telesur similarly noted the potential of having to call in the military if the drought worsened:

The water crisis is the worst is the last 84 years, and the dry season has only just begun, with less water in the dams than in 2014, when restrictions on water began and the authorities began to realize the seriousness of the disaster. 

Last week, a conference between academics, military employees and local councils to discuss how to handle the coming five months in the case that reserves run out, and the city might go up to five days without water. Paulo Massato, engineer at the state water company, told the conference that water supplies could run out as early as July, if emergency works are not finished in time. 

Engineers are working to create infrastructure to connect various reservoirs, which, if completed, would mean that there would be enough water to last until October. 

On being asked what would happen in the worst case scenario, with no rain and incomplete works, Massato replied, “It would be terrible. No would be no food, no would be no electricity … It would be a scene from the end of the world. There a thousands of people, and it could cause social chaos. It would not only be a problem of water shortage, it would be much more than that.” 

Last year the smaller city of Itu suffered a similar drought, causing violent protests and looting. 

“If a small city like Itu unleashed all of that in such a short time, imagine what could happen in a city like (Sao Paulo),” said Massato.

As the Telesur article notes, another issue facing the region are electrical shortages as reservoirs feeding hydroelectric generators go dry. Approximately two-thirds of Brazil's electricity comes from hydropower. This May 19 Reuters article notes that Brazilian authorities are betting on more rain to save the situation, rather than cut back on power consumption. The article goes on to report:

Reservoirs in Brazil's southeast and central regions were at about 30 percent of their capacity at the end of April. With that level of water, the dams are expected to reach November - the start of the next rainy season - at 10 percent full, according to forecasts by Brazil's power grid operator, ONS.

That is the absolute minimum level required to operate power plants, Energy Minister Eduardo Braga told reporters in Brasilia in January.

Another impact of the drought, however, is an increase of dengue fever. What, with people storing water in all sorts of various containers, the mosquito population has exploded.

However, with it looking like a strong El Nino this year, it is possible that Brazil will see more rain.

Interesting times.

"Ballistic Vests and Movement Matrix"

An article from Suarez International discussing the importance of movement even when using a ballistic vest.

"How do farmers truly survive when SHTF?"

FerFAL has long maintained that it is a mistake to automatically assume that rural areas are your best bet for surviving a SHTF event. In the above-entitled article, he offers up a couple episodes from a documentary series that illustrates the difficulties of farmers facing the collapse of law (or at least, rule of law) in Africa.

Quotable Quote--May 22, 2015

“The refugee movement is THE movement of the 21st century”

          --Angela Davis, former president of the Communist Party USA.

It's Not Summer Yet! New England and Atlantic Coast States To Get Hit With Freezing Temperatures

This Memorial Day weekend is going to bring unseasonable (but probably becoming more common in the near future) cold weather--i.e., freezing or lower--to most areas of New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Obviously the concern here is for garden plants and fruit trees. Here are some articles discussing how to protect plants from frost:

• "How to Protect Plants From Frost Damage" from Gardening Know How.
•  "Protecting Your Plants in a Freeze", another article from Gardening Know How.
• "How to Protect Plants from the Cold" at Wiki How.
• "How to Protect Plants from Frost" from Marin Master Gardners at the University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources.
• "Protect Plants from Frost" at Sunset magazine.
• "Frost Protection"--a PDF from the University of Arizona Extension Office.
• "How to Protect Your Garden from Frost and Freeze" from Today's Homeowner.
• "Fruit: protecting from frost" from the Royal Horticulture Society.
• "Freeze damage depends on tree fruit stage of development: Damage from freezes depends on the development stage of the fruit crop. These tables allow you to quickly asses the risk for your tree fruit crops" from the University of Michigan Extension Office.
• "Frost Protection for Fruit Crops" -- a PDF from the Iowa State University Extension Office.

If you are covering your plants, it is important that the covering (especially if using plastic) not touch the plant as it will transmit the cold to the leaves or parts being contacted, and may be worse than having no cover. You can build a frame to hold the covering; or, as the Sunset magazine article suggests, if you lack time, put a patio chair or something similar over the plant to hold the covering.

Common Ballistic Terms You Should Know

An illustrated guide to the most common ballistic terms every rifle shooter or hunter should know from Guns & Ammo. (H/t The Firearms Blog).

"Police are being targeted. Is this the slow motion societal collapse?"

SNAFU! looks at the increased targeting and attacks of police by criminals and wonders if this is a sign or symptom of a slow motion collapse.

Western civilization began to collapse over a century ago. Europe committed suicide in WWI; WWII was just the funeral. The United States has since been serving as Atlas, carrying the whole thing on our shoulders. We (speaking of the United States) passed from culture to civilization (per Spengler) in 1913. Our apex was in 1973. But as median wages demonstrate, it has been a long slow decline ever afterward. Sure, we've had a few spurts of economic growth since then, but I would say that by 1973 we had most definitely reached a point of diminishing marginal returns. The stimulus after the 2008 financial crash indicates that, by that time, we had reached a point of negative marginal return (how else do you explain spending hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars for each job allegedly "saved" or "created"). We are in a serious depression, and the only reason we don't see it is because, instead of lines at soup kitchens, we have people unobtrusively using EBT cards. Under a different president or administration (that the American people would voluntarily select a crook like Obama over a decent man like Romney--whether or not you agreed with Romney's politics on all issues--was itself significant), we might have seen investors using their money for capital investment and hiring. Instead, the money is either parked idle in foreign accounts (e.g., Apple), or chasing other money around on the stock market and other financial markets in order to find some sort of return. We don't have a manufacturing economy, or even a knowledge/service economy. We have a ghost economy, unhinged from the real world.

There is a saying I've seen several times, the gist of which is that you first go bankrupt gradually, and then suddenly. I suspect that a real collapse will be the same way. Gradual and then suddenly. We've been on the slow part for a while, and perhaps things are beginning to speed up.

The Continuing War on Cash

Peter Grant has more on the war on cash, specifically pointing out how little of the total money supply is actually cash. ($1.36 trillion in cash versus $220 trillion in derivatives trading). He quotes the following from Zero Hedge concerning the fear underlying the desire to restrict or control cash:

Put another way, actual physical money or cash (as in bills or coins you can hold in your hand) comprises less than 1% of the “money” in the financial system.

As far as the Central Banks are concerned, this is a good thing because if investors/depositors were ever to try and convert even a small portion of this “wealth” into actual physical bills, the system would implode (there simply is not enough actual cash).

. . .

In this scenario, when the 2008 Crisis hit, one of the biggest problems for the Central Banks was to stop investors from fleeing digital wealth for the comfort of physical cash. Indeed, the actual “thing” that almost caused the financial system to collapse was when depositors attempted to pull $500 billion out of money market funds ... When all of this happened, the global Central Banks realized that their worst nightmare could in fact become a reality: that if a significant percentage of investors/ depositors ever tried to convert their “wealth” into cash (particularly physical cash) the whole system would implode.

He goes on to discuss keeping some cash at hand (i.e., not in a bank) and goods for trade or barter.

The Phantom Jig--Finishing the 80% 1911 Frame

For those interested in such a project, The Silicon Graybeard has an article about using the Phantom Jig to finish an 80% aluminum frame without having to resort to a milling machine. He also links to a video done by Knuckledraggin My Life Away on the same product. The jig with an 80% frame is currently $350; by itself, the jig is currently $200.

An Example of Using the Haybox

Neo-Survivalist has an article entitled "Off Grid Cooking: The Haybox" where he offers a tutorial/example of cooking with a "haybox" (in his case, a cardboard box stuffed with shredded paper as the insultor) to make a rice pudding. Check it out.

Related Posts: "'Wonderbag' Cooking Bag, Hay Boxes and Other Types of Insulated Cooking"

"Did a megaflood kill off America's first metropolis? Mississippi River and NOT droughts to blame for demise of Cahokia"

Cahokia is the large mound-builder city near present day St. Louis. According to this Daily Mail article, the culture there flourished during several centuries of dryer weather between 600 A.D. and 1200 A.D. that encouraged people to build on the flood plain. However, a series of floods beginning after 1200 apparently led to the decline and abandonment of the settlement by 1400 A.D. According to the physical data, some of these mega-floods would have been 10 meters (33 feet) above the river's normal water level.

"As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly." Proverbs 26:11

The Daily Mail reports that a "3D hardcore porn film featuring explicit orgies, nudity and a transvestite prostitute sparks brawls at Cannes as desperate cinemagoers try to get into midnight screening."

A couple Bible verses that come to mind:

• "Even as Sodom and Gomorrha, and the cities about them in like manner, giving themselves over to fornication, and going after strange flesh, are set forth for an example, suffering the vengeance of eternal fire." Jude 1:7
• "But the fearful, and unbelieving, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part in the lake which burneth with fire and brimstone: which is the second death." Rev. 21:8

The Rat Hunters of New York

Considering yesterday's post on urban foraging, I thought I would link to a few articles about rat hunting in New York:

• "THE RAT HUNTERS OF NEW YORK" at The Narratively magazine.
• "Spend A Night With The Rat-Hunting Dogs Of NYC" from Business Insider.
• "THE RAT HUNTERS OF NEW YORK" at Roads & Kingdoms.

All three articles pertain to a group called Ryder's Alley Trencher-fed Society (R.A.T.S.), which uses trained terriers to hunt and kill rats.

As you might expect, rats are prolific. The Narratively article states:

The brown rat, or Rattus norvegicus, is the most common mammal in New York City. They are incredibly productive—male brown rats may mate with up to twenty female rats in just six hours. Males have been known to mate with pregnant, juvenile and dead rats—and even other males, if there are no females around. The rat’s sexual appetite, combined with the female’s ability to conceive just hours after birth, are what make the rodent one of the fecund in the animal kingdom.

Rats are skilled city dwellers: They can squeeze through a hole the size of a quarter, develop immunities to poisons, and are excellent swimmers. Some even catch fish. They can climb vertical surfaces and survive a thirty-foot fall without injury. They can cause damage, too—such as starting fires when they gnaw through wires with their sharp teeth, which are stronger than aluminum, and exert a pressure of up to seven thousand pounds per square inch. One study from Cornell University estimated that rats cause $19 billion in damage every year, the most of any introduced species in the United States.

The article also notes some preparations for the hunt:

Many owners administer Amoxcillin to their canine killers for several days before the hunt to ward off rat-borne illnesses. Pant legs duct-taped shut, they poke through trash piles with metal staffs and swing their flashlights side to side, eyes peeled for that soft, startling rustle that signifies the prey is close at hand.

Anyway, some interesting reads if you have the time.

A Downloadable Target for Zeroing Your Carbine for 50/200 Yards at Only 10 Yards

Via The Firearms Blog

Another Reason to Ditch the .40 S&W

The Bardstown, KY, is having to replace 12 Glock handguns purchased in 2000 because of the frames cracking.  The Firearms Blog points out that the pistols are all Model 23's, in .40 S&W. The Department's spokesman indicated that the Department may be changing to 9 mm.

This is consistent with what other law enforcement agencies have found. From a 2014 Kit Up article on the military looking at the .40 is this:

The story also points out that the FBI and several major police departments recently decided to return to using the 9mm round after finding that .40 caliber ammunition was causing excessive wear on its service pistols.

The heavier bullet and greater recoil over time resulted in frame damage to well respected makes such as Glock and Beretta, according to Ernest Langdon, a shooting instructor and respected competitive pistol shooter.

“Most of the guns in .40 caliber on the market right now were actually designed to be 9mm originally and then turned into .40 calibers later,” Langdon told Military.com.

Langdon served 12 years in the Marine Corps (1985-1987) where he was the chief instructor of the Second Marine Division Scout Sniper School and the High Risk Personnel Course. He’s well known in the small-arms community. Langdon has been a competitive pistol shooter for 15 years where he has won competitions in the International Defensive Pistol Association and two World Speed Shooting titles.

Langdon has worked for gun makers such as Beretta, Smith & Wesson, and Sig Sauer. He said he keeps going back to shooting the Beretta 92/M9 design because that’s what he’s used to, not because he thinks it’s better than Glock, S&W M&P, Sig or other models.

And just so it’s clear, Langdon isn’t endorsing the M9 or arguing that the military should keep it forever. Langdon does, however, believe that the 9mm is suited for general-purpose military use and doesn’t buy into the argument that caliber size equals “stopping power.”

Larger calibers, such as .40 S&W, have significantly more recoil than the 9mm making them much harder for the average shooter to shoot accurately, he said.

“I don’t think anybody would argue that shot placement is the most important for terminal ballistics,” Langdon said. “Even though you say a .45 is better than a 9mm, it’s still a pistol caliber. Chances are if it is a determined adversary, they are going to have to be shot multiple times regardless of the caliber.”

Related Posts: "Is the Sun Setting on the .40 S&W?" and "FBI Justification for Changing to 9 mm."

From the Archive: An Example of Why OPSEC is Important

Originally published on November 22, 2011 (update in original post):

Operational Security (OPSEC) should be a major concern of anyone prepping for a disaster. As an example (and another link courtesy of Daily Survival) a 1918 New York Times article about a Navy officer and his wife being criminally charged for food hoarding. A few things to take note of:

1.    This took place in the United States, and the prosecution was made pursuant to Federal law;

2.    The approximately 1 ton of food was purchased in 1914 1918 in anticipation of shortages in the event of a prolonged war (the United States did not enter the war until 1917);

3.    The "offenders" were caught because they were informed on by a friend of the local "Food Administrator." Its not clear whether from the story how the "friend" knew about the stored food, but it is notable that the Navy officer had earlier sold some of the stored food to a grocer.

This is particularly relevant to members of the Church, since it is well known that LDS members are encouraged to store a years supply of food. In any major SHTF, I suspect that members of the Church will be specifically targeted because of suspected food stores.

Update: Made a correction based on my misreading the story. The food was bought using money obtained from a 1914 inheritance, but the food was not purchased until 1918.

Urban Foraging

A lot of people, when they hear or read the term "urban foraging," think of gathering wild plants from the urban environment. An example is this article from The Telegraph on "Urban foraging: what foods can you find growing in cities?" The author describes walking about with a foraging expert, writing:

Over the next two hours, just in the city centre, we find over 25 edible plants including bay leaves (“Just pick a branch and hang it in the kitchen and let it dry”), rowan and hawthorn berries, crab apples, beech nuts and wormwood – the fragrant plant that is used to flavour absinthe.

Other resources for this type of foraging are:

• The Institute for Culture and Ecology, which has articles on foraging in and around Seattle, Washington. 
• Falling Fruit, which has interactive maps of locations for foraging around the world. 
• First Ways, a blog on urban foraging.
• Urban Edibles, which is a database of forageables in the Portland, Oregon area.

(But I would also mention this article, which I've cited before, on how harmful foraging can be to the wild plants).

"Urban foraging" also includes scavenging food or other items from dumpsters or, as Freegan.info describes it: "Alternatively known as trash picking, gleaning, dumpster diving, scavenging, salvaging, or curb crawling, urban foraging is the act of recovering useable goods discarded by retailers, schools, homes, businesses, construction sites – really anywhere anyone is throwing away goods that shouldn’t end up in a landfill. Frequently recovered items include clothing, food, furniture, computers, appliances, books, videos, DVDs, office supplies, lumber, tools, toys, umbrellas – just about anything you can buy in a store." The latter site has tutorials and informative articles on how to safely and legally forage in the urban environment.

Quotable Quote--From Voltaire

“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.”
-Voltaire

This Ought to Change Exactly Nothing

Fox News reports on Obama scaling back on military goodies moving into the hands of the police. The article states:

... the White House said that effective immediately, the federal government will no longer fund or provide armored vehicles that run on a tracked system instead of wheels, weaponized aircraft or vehicles, firearms or ammunition of .50-caliber or higher, grenade launchers, bayonets or camouflage uniforms. The federal government also is exploring ways to recall prohibited equipment already distributed.

So, basically no change in distributing the MRAPs, body armor, most sniper weapons, etc. The main thrust seems to not be prohibiting the stuff that will intimidate the public, but the stuff that could effectively be used against the military.

A Quick and Dirty Introduction to Prepping

The men's blog "Just Four Guys" at one time published a short series that set out the fundamentals of prepping for a newbie:

• "Survival series: Introduction." Just some thoughts on why prepping by the series' first author.
• "Survival series:You need a plan." After referring you to http://www.ready.gov/ for specific information on what to do in an emergency and a family plan checklist, the author discusses the importance of having an emergency plan.
• "Survival series: Don’t count on using your cell phone." This article, as the title suggests, discusses the weaknesses to normal communication networks, and briefly discusses alternate methods of communications, as well as providing some links to additional resources.
• "SFC Ton’s Survival Series: On Pistols." With this article, the series makes two shifts--a new author steps in with a former sniper/special ops background, and the emphasis shifts to the most manly part of prepping: the weapons. I've expressed in past that your primary emphasis should be on your handgun, and this author agrees, writing: "Your 1st investment should be a hand gun. Hand guns are poor man stoppers but excellent tools as they are easy to carry, easy to conceal, and leaves your hands free to do other stuff (which is why cops use them).  I am not a fan of having a pistol for all occasions. Really you need one gun that you can take anywhere, which is where the pocket pistol comes into play." From there, he goes on to express his opinion on different setups. I'm sure that some may not agree with his conclusions, but bear in mind that it is intended for basic prepping for someone with little or no experience with firearms.
• "SFC Ton’s Survival Series: The Long Guns." Moving on to long guns (shotguns and rifles), the author gives his thoughts on economical and effective ways to gun up to long arms.
• "SFC Ton’s Survival Series: The Basics, 101." Here, SFC Ton offers up a potpourri of advice ranging from using .22, eating domestic animals, exercise and fitness, the best gloves, and dogs--what are they good for?
• "SFC Ton’s Survival Series: Concluding Thoughts." This last article focuses on bugging out, such as issues of storing fuel, tools and supplies to keep to fix your BOV, and some other equipment to have on hand.

Check it out.

"Iraqis shut gates of Baghdad to desperate families fleeing terror: Over 20,000 trapped in no man's land at the mercy of advancing ISIS horde after the fall of Ramadi"

I think the headline to this Daily Mail article pretty much says it all. But, nevertheless, from the article:

The country's army amassed around Ramadi yesterday, and Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias have also marched towards the city in a bid to recapture it. But counter-terrorism analysts say this move could result in an all-out sectarian bloodbath with the Sunni fanatics.

Meanwhile reports that ISIS has seized yet another village between there and its controlled territory in Fallujah indicates they are moving east towards Baghdad.
It means those stuck on the Baghdad's peripheries are vulnerable to attacks should the terror group keep advancing towards the city, according to the DARY Humanitarian Organisation in the city. 

Its President Alaa Obiead told MailOnline: 'There were more than 8,000 people fleeing violence and fear of being killed by Islamic State and I expect that figure has now reached more than 20,000. 

'I can also confirm that other people are trapped in their homes in downtown Ramadi because of the control of Islamic State there. 

'A lot of people from Anbar are stuck in Amiriyat Fallujah without shelter because of the closure of the only bridge leading to the capital, Baghdad. 

Helpless families are refused entry into the city - which has gone into military lock down - because soldiers can not verify they are actually civilians or the ISIS fighters who destroyed their home, he says.

And these civilians 'face dangers from all sides and many have nowhere to run, nowhere to hide,' the Emergencies Division of Human Rights Watch has told MailOnline.

Don't be a refugee if you can help it.

"Learning from the Sheriff of Baghdad: Accept the Wobble and be Nice"

Breach Bang Clear has some tips for getting better accuracy and speed out of your handgun or carbine.

Apex Has CETME C Kits Available

Apex has CETME C parts kits available for $174.99 for the basic kit (sans barrel and receiver, of course). The CETME C is 7.62 NATO, and the predecessor of HK G-3. Unlike the CETME L kits, because these kits have been imported off and on, and are compatible with receivers and barrels for the G-3/HK 91, receivers and barrels are readily available. They also can use the G-3 magazines, which are common and inexpensive. Now the question I have to ask myself is whether I want to build another one?

Quotable Quote -- "At the Mercy of the Climate Jihadists"

Years ago, I heard the Jewish comedian Jackie Mason performing in Beverly Hills, riffing on the primary motivation of wealthy liberals. They do things, he suggested, not because they actually accomplished anything, but because “I have to look at myself in the mirror.”

--from an op-ed at the Orange County Register entitled "At the Mercy of the Climate Jihadists"

Saudis Renew Air Strikes ...

... against Shiite Houthi rebels and allied military units loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Bullet Resistant Fiberglass

(Link here)

Radio Shack Closing Sales

Sparks 31 reminds readers of his blog that the closing sales at Radio Shacks around the countries are offering good deals on police scanners and other electronic components.

Former New Black Panther And Ferguson Organizer Dr. Mauricelm-Lei Millere Calls on Blacks to Kill Cops

Weasel Zippers has posted some tweets from Dr. Millere calling on blacks to kill cops "in self defense" and predicting many more killings of police if the officers charged in the Freddy Grey killing go free. If you think I'm exaggerating or misrepresenting his words, go look at the tweets and let me know.

FDA Mulls Plan to Open Blood Donations to Gay and Bisexual Men

From an article at Medical News Today discussing the FDA's proposal to lift the ban on blood donations by gay and bisexual men:

The ban was enforced in 1983 in the wake of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the US, restricting all men who have had sex with other men since 1977 from donating blood due to their increased risk of HIV transmission.

In December 2014, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced they have taken the decision to recommend the indefinite ban on blood donation for gay and bisexual men is removed, allowing these men to donate blood providing they have not had sex with another man in the past 12 months.

Yesterday, the FDA issued a draft guidance recommending this change, which - if implemented - will bring the US in line with blood donation regulations for gay and bisexual men in the UK, Australia, Sweden and Argentina, among many other countries.

Men who have ever tested positive for HIV and those who have ever engaged in commercial sex work or non-prescription injection drug use would remain indefinitely deferred from blood donation, however.

However, the primary driver seems to pressure from groups representing gay men and the Red Cross. The article continues:

However, while gay rights activists have campaigned for a change in blood donation regulations for gay and bisexual men for many years, many believe these new guidelines are still not acceptable.

In a blog post from Human Rights Campaign (HRC) - the largest lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equal rights group in the US - HRC Government Affairs Director David Stacy says that while the new policy is a "step in the right direction," he believes it "falls far short" as it continues to stigmatize gay and bisexual men. He adds:

"This policy prevents men from donating life-saving blood based solely on their sexual orientation rather than actual risk to the blood supply.

It simply cannot be justified in light of current scientific research and updated blood screening technology. We are committed to working towards an eventual outcome that both minimizes risk to the blood supply and treats gay and bisexual men with the respect they deserve."

Well, we can't let hurt feelings and lower Red Cross revenue get in the way of protecting the U.S. blood supply!

I've expressed my concern many times that Ebola is in the process of transforming into a sexually transmitted disease. (See here, here, here, here, here, here and here). My concern, set out more fully in this October 2014 post, is that an Ebola STD would likely follow the same path to the United States as had HIV. In Africa, HIV is not mostly limited to homosexuals, as in Europe or the United States. But its spread out of Africa to Europe and the United States was mostly through the sex trade and, most particularly, through the homosexual sex trade. So, perhaps the incidence of HIV is low enough and/or the tests to detect it are accurate and cheap enough to lift the ban, but it merely opens the door to other threats. I recognize that Ebola as an STD is still theoretical, but there is a lot of factors suggesting that is the path it is going to follow. In the face of that possibility, it seems to me to be foolish to lift the ban merely to assuage the feelings of a small minority.

From the Archive: "The Black Death"

(Originally published on September 3, 2011)

The ultimate goal of many survivalists and preppers is to prepare for an "apocalypse"--or The Apocalypse. And there is no shortage of information on what to do in the event of a natural disaster, storing food and water, gardening, self-defense, etc. One of the main variables, however, is how people will react in the face of a truly cataclysmic, TEOTWAWKI disaster. I spent some time a few years ago trying to figure this out, reading up on Katrina and its aftermath, researching what the government would do in the event of wide-spread social unrest, and trying to figure out what type of disaster would lead to a large scale loss of the rule of law. In doing so, I came across two excellent books on the Black Plague: The Great Mortality, by John Kelly, and Wendy Orent's Plague: The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the World's Most Dangerous Disease. Kelly's book focuses just on the Black Plague of the 14th Century, and is more of a social history of the outbreak. Orent's book takes a broader perspective, tracing a history of plague outbreaks from Justinian's plague, through the Black Plague and later plague outbreaks in Europe, through some of the last large outbreaks in the 20th Century in India, China, and Vietnam, and finally to research by the Soviets, and later the Russians, to weaponize plague.

There are certain points to note. First, the Black Plague was caused by a bacterium called Yersinia pestis ("y. pestis"). The initial outbreak was in the central steppes of Asia (probably Mongolia), and spread east into China, south into India, and westward through the Middle-East and Asia to Europe.

Although we, in the West, tend to focus on its impact in Europe, it was as much or more devastating in China and the Middle-East. Kelly writes:

How many people perished in the Black Death is unknown; for Europe, the most widely accepted mortality figure is 33 percent. In raw numbers that means that between 1347, when the plague arrive in Sicily, and 1352, when it appeared in the plains in front of Moscow, the continent lost twenty-five million of its seventy-five million inhabitants. But in parts of urban Italy, eastern England, and rural France, the loss of human life was far greater, ranging from 40 to 60 percent. ....

 In the Islamic Middle East and North Africa, mortality rates also were in the one-third range. To the Muslim historian Ibn Kaldun, it seemed "as if the voice of existence in the world had called out for oblivion. In Chine the presence of chronic war makes it difficult to assess plague mortalities, but between 1200 and 1393 the population of the country fell 50 percent, from about 123 million to 65 million. Today a demographic disaster on the scale of the Black Death would claim 1.9 billion lives. (Kelly pp. 11-12).

(Horrible as these numbers sound, it should be remembered that Roman Europe, after the fall of the Western Empire, lost between one-half and two-thirds of its population).

Second, both books (although Orent to a greater extent than Kelly) note the different theories as to plague strains between Russian and Western researches. Basically, Western scientists, whose exposure to plague foci is limited, consider y. pestis to be but a single strain, transmitted by the fleas of rats and other rodents. This appears to be correct as to modern outbreaks of plague, and it is notable that plague in the United States is for the most part limited to prairie dog colonies. The problem is that contemporary accounts from the 14th Century do not mention large die offs of rats; the plague spread much too rapidly to be transmitted via rodents and fleas, but seemed to be transmitted directly from person to person; and the symptoms were very different. In particular, plague chroniclers noted that in addition to "bubos" (swollen lumps), plague victims would display dark splotches (likely hemorrhagic bruising), a foul oder emanating from their breath, and what appeared to be neurological problems. Western scientists offer no real explanation as to the differences.

The Russians, however, believe that there are different strains of plague, with widely differing mortality rates and vectors of transmission. Relevant here, they believe that the strain of plague from the marmot is the source of the Black Plague. The differences between the strains is that the marmot strain lodges in and attacks the respiratory system, and therefore readily changes into pneumonic plague. This seems to be born out by a recent study that sequenced the DNA of the plague recovered from corpses of plague victims. This study confirms that the modern strain of plague is, indeed, genetically different from the strain that caused the Black Plague. Says the article:

"The Black Death was caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis — the one responsible for current plague outbreaks. This settles the controversy surrounding the causative agent. Although we cannot rule out, at this stage, that there was another co-circulating strain," said study author Hendrik Poinar, a biological anthropologist at McMaster University in Ontario.

However, the genetic sequence of the bacteria in the London bodies differed from the sequences of modern versions of Y. pestis, suggesting that the strain responsible for the Black Death is likely extinct, the researchers said.

(More on this study here and here). It's possible that the particular strain is extinct--and we could hope so--but just is possible is that the strain they tested from the cadavers of the buried plague victims is simply different from the strain that the researches used for a comparison--likely the rat strain.

Certainly the Soviets and Russians believed that the marmot strain was different, and deadlier, than the rat strain found in the United States. Orent details their efforts to weaponize plague.  She notes the following:

(a) In 1986, a Soviet scientist, Sergei Popov, worked on “recombinant plague” that included DNA to produce peptids. The idea was that when a victim was treated for plague and given antibiotics, the antibiotics would break down the cell walls and release artificial peptides which would subsequently cause paralysis, high blood pressure, irregular heartbeat, changes in behavior, perception of pain, or other bizarre effects. Two days to two weeks later, the recovered patient would be struck with a heart attack, stroke, or fatal paralysis. Orent claims that this was successfully tested on animals.

 (b) In 1987, another Soviet scientist, Dergei Netesov, Deputy Director of Vector Labs., went to Obolensk to develop “chimera” plague with Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis (VEE) in plague bacteria. Similar to the 1986 research, the idea was that when the victim developed plague and was treated with antibiotics, the cell walls of the plague bacteria would break down releasing the VEE virus, producing encephalitis and death within 10 days.

(c) In 1992, another researcher, K.I. Volkovoi integrated genetic coding for diphtheria directly into plague plasmids, resulting in the plague bacterium being able to overcome immunity to live plague vaccine, increased its virulence (so it could be aerosolized), and was antibiotic resistant.

(d) Orsted reports that the Russians continue bioweapon research at various locations, including Kirov, Pokrov, Sergiyev Posad, and Ekaterinburg (fka Sverdlovsk).

Al-Qaeda apparently also attempted to weaponize plague, which resulted in a deadly outbreak. (Here and here; possible confirmation here and here).

 One of the more interesting aspects in Kelly's book is that, notwithstanding the tremendous death, there was apparently no wide-spread social unrest. (The Plague did cause social upheaval--the shortage of labor following the Plague basically spelled the doom of the feudal system, as peasants and workers found the opportunity to move to better paying jobs and positions). Probate courts, while working overtime, continued to work; cities were not abandoned (although some rural villages were literally depopulated); although there were riots directed against Jews (always the scapegoats), there apparently was little else in way of social agitation.

 I don't know if it would be the same today. People viewed the Black Death as a judgment from God; certainly there was no expectation that government "do something." Hence, there was no disappointment or anger when government couldn't do anything, except gather the bodies and bury the dead. Today, whether you agree with having an overweening government or not, people expect--even insist--that it solve our problems. People might be  upset if they faced death from a plague, but the government was unable to do anything about it.

A Couple Deals That Might Interest Some of You

A friend pointed out a couple deals to me today that I thought I would pass along.

First, for those of you interested in building an CETME L, or just interested in collecting bayonets, Numrich now has what they are describing as CETME L bayonets for $69.95.

Second, Aim Surplus has nitrided lower receiver parts kits for the AR for $39.95. Note that the kit doesn't include a pistol grip or trigger guard (which most people replace with after market variants anyway). My friend ordered a set, so hopefully I can give you my impressions in a short while.

"How to butcher a chicken in 20 minutes or less ...while leaving the carcass and feathers intact!"

An article from Backwoods Home magazine.

"Building The Ultimate Tactical Athlete"

The Loadout Room is beginning a new series on training to become a "tactical athlete." The first part of the series can be found here and addresses building a foundation of structural balance (i.e., proper breathing, flexibility, and correct movement) for future strength training and aerobic base development. The article does not present a training program, per se, but instead provides information on the goals of a training program.

A Quick Run Around the Web--May 14, 2015

Some articles on various topics:

• "South African mercenaries' secret war on Boko Haram" at The Telegraph. Apparently a few good, trained men, was all it took to route Boko Haram.
• "Metadata: MetaUseful & MetaCreepy" at bellingcat. Information and resources for extracting metadata from photographs.
• "SURVEY: MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF BEE HIVES DIED IN PAST YEAR"--from the Associated Press.
• "The War on Cash, and Nearly Comic Book Levels of Absurdity" from the Silicon Graybeard. The progressives dream of having total control over your money and whether you buy or save.
• "Gunmen at Muhammad Cartoon Contest Were Killed by SWAT Team" from the Wall Street Journal. The original story of a lone police officer killing both ISIS members may have been too good to be true; and the attackers may have walked into an ambush.
• "HSBC WARNS: The world economy faces a 'titanic problem'" from the Business Insider. The appropriately named chief economist for HSBC, Stephen King, warns of a recession disaster waiting in the shadows.
• "Their Losing Religion = Our Losing Religious Freedom" at the American Conservative. The author warns that declines in the number of people identifying as religious will lead to less interest in protecting religious freedom.
• "The .357 Magnum for Survival: You Can’t Do Better" at All Outdoor. Yeah, that is my preferred handgun for when I'm planning on spending time in the great outdoors.

Further Confirmation that Saudi Arabia Will Pursue the Bomb

The Independent reports:

Saudi Arabia has threatened to spark a new kind of nuclear arms race in the Middle East, setting out a bullish stance ahead of a rare, high-profile meeting of the US and its Gulf allies at Camp David.

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According to the New York Times, one Arab leader who is preparing to meet Mr Obama today has said: “We can’t sit back and be nowhere as Iran is allowed to retain much of its capability and amass its research.”

And while the figure behind this claim asked to remain anonymous until he had put it directly to the President, the Times said it was the same message as that touted by former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki bin Faisal, who said in South Korea recently: “Whatever the Iranians have, we will have, too.”

It sets up the prospect of a new kind of arms race between the Middle East’s various parties – the implication being that if Iran is to be left to its nuclear programme, why shouldn’t Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE?

The Gulf leaders are concerned that the White House’s nuclear deal with Tehran, instead of limiting the threat posed by that state, will allow Iran to grow into a dangerously destabilising force in the region.

It is revealing that Saudi Arabia was never this concerned about Israel's nuclear weapons program.

In any event, some aren't convinced that the Iran deal with lead to nuclear proliferation. Citing an article by Jessica C. Varnum at World Politics Review (behind a paywall), Daniel Larison contends that the lack of nuclear know-how will prevent Saudi Arabia and others from pursuing their own weapons programs, and that claims of pursuing a nuclear weapons program is merely empty rhetoric. The key reasons for Varnum's and Larison's opinion is that Saudi Arabia and other Middle-East countries will have to go to a country like Russia or South Korea for nuclear technology and assistance building nuclear power plants, but those nations, in turn, have treaty obligations that will restrict them assisting in the development of nuclear weapons programs.

Of course, that is the path that Iran initially followed--obtaining assistance from the Soviet Union and Russia to build the power plants, then building the necessary infrastructure and knowledge base to refine the nuclear materials and design a bomb. So, Varnum's and Larison's arguments aren't that it cannot be done, but that it cannot be done in time.

The problem with the foregoing theory is that the nations from which Saudi Arabia seeks assistance will comply with their treaty obligations, or that Saudi Arabia might not be able to obtain assistance from a nation (Israel) with nuclear weapons, but not bound by non-proliferation treaties.