Hunting Rats in New York City with Dogs

From the Daily Mail:

In a scrappy, streetwise cousin of mannerly countryside fox hunts, on terrain far from the European farms and fields where many of the dogs' ancestors were bred to scramble after vermin and foxes, their masters sport trash-poking sticks instead of riding crops and say it's just as viable an exercise for the animals' centuries-old skills. 

‘It's about maintaining the breed type through actual work,’ says Richard Reynolds, a New Jersey-based business analyst and longtime dog breeder who might be considered the group's organizer -- if it would accept being called organized. 

Known with a chuckle as the Ryders Alley Trencher-fed Society -- parse the acronym -- the rodent-hunters have been scouring downtown byways for more than a decade, meeting weekly when weather allows.
... The lineups included two border terriers; a wire-haired dachshund; a Jack Russell terrier/Australian cattle dog mix; a Patterdale terrier, an intense, no-nonsense breed that's uncommon in this country; and a feist, a type of dog developed in the American South to tree squirrels.
... Although the dogs have hunting instincts, it takes training to capitalize on them. Just because your pet runs after backyard squirrels doesn't mean it could ever catch one.
When at its best, the alley pack works together. One dog will sniff out a rat and signal its whereabouts, often by barking. Another leaps at the hideaway to rout the quarry, and then a third lurches to catch it as it flees.

Of course, PETA--whose members think that animals are like they are portrayed in Disney cartoons--is horrified.

DIY Rinse Agent

Fill the rinse agent dispenser in your dishwasher with white distilled vinegar. You can add a few drops of lemon essential oils to give it a more pleasant odor.

Pentagon Continues Down Path Of Religious Persecution

Breitbart notes that the Pentagon is planning on employing Mikey Weinstein as a consultant to develop new policies on "religious tolerance, including a policy for court-martialing military chaplains who share the Christian Gospel during spiritual counseling of American troops."Yes, you read that right. Religious "tolerance" will include punishing military personnel that engage in proselytizing. The article goes on to quote Weinstein comparing the sharing of the gospel to rape and terrorism, and conservative Christian beliefs as sedition and treason. From the article:

Weinstein decries what he calls the “virulent religious oppression” perpetrated by conservative Christians, whom he refers to as “monstrosities” and “pitiable unconstitutional carpetbaggers,” comparing them to “bigots” in the Deep South during the civil rights era.

He cites Dr. James Dobson—the famous Christian founder of Focus on the Family—as “illustrating the extremist, militant nature of these virulently homophobic organizations’ rhetorically-charged propaganda.” Regarding those who teach orthodox Christian beliefs from the Bible, Weinstein concludes, “Let’s call these ignoble actions what they are: the senseless and cowardly squallings of human monsters.”

Weinstein then endorses the ultra-left Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), who publishes a list of “hate groups.” Alongside truly deplorable organizations like the KKK, the SPLC’s list includes a host of traditional Christian organizations (for their support of traditional marriage) and Tea Party organizations (for supporting limited government). Weinstein says SPLC correctly labels them all as “hate groups.”

 If this is indicative of the future of our military and national policy, every Christian should be very afraid.

The Layering Strategy to Food Storage

Ready Nutrition has posted an article involving the concept of layering, and applying it to food storage. From the article:

When planning for emergencies, layering is an ever-constant theme. I often emphasize when one begins to prepare that you start simply by preparing for small-scale emergencies, and then slowly begin adding onto those existing preps to create a longer term preparedness supply. These emergency layers help you create a reliable foundation, and the same layering approach can be used when creating a food storage pantry.There are some emergency food considerations to keep in mind:

• The amount of people in the household.

• Have a good amount of food varieties to reduce food fatigue.

• The serving size of the food.

• Vitamin content in the food.

• The expiration date or “best if used by” labels on the food.

• Special health conditions for family members.

Additionally, these essential food pantry rules can come in handy when you decide on which food to purchase.

The author then discusses four "layers": (i) 0-72 hours, (ii) 4-30 days, (iii) 31-99 days, and (iv) 100-365+ days. Read the whole thing.

(H/t Daily Survival).

No More Wooden Handles!

Another weekend brought another opportunity to devote some serious time to gardening and yard tasks. Things were actually going pretty smoothly, initially. We had purchased a new reel for rolling up hoses (this one contained in a box) and a new hose, and I was able to get the reel installed and the new hose loaded onto it. Since we use a 100 ft. hose, this is much more convenient and neater of storage.

Next, as I think I've mentioned before, the water for our sprinkler system comes from an irrigation canal. Start of the season tasks involve cleaning the inlet pipe for our irrigation/sprinkler system pump, replacing all the plugs removed last fall to drain the pump and system, priming the pump, and then checking that everything works. We have separate manual valves that control different watering for different sections of our property. Generally, I can run sprinklers in two sections at a time. Today, though, opening the valve to one of the sections dropped off all water pressure to any other section. Somewhere, one of the pipes had ruptured.

Since the sprinkler system pipes are buried, it was not readily apparent where was the leak. After running water through it a few times for several minutes each, I finally spotted water percolating out of the ground. Now it was time to dig. The ground in that particular area has lots of rock, and lots of roots from a nearby bush and tree. Grabbing a long handled shovel, I started to excavate a hole to uncover the pipe. The first shovel load was fine. The second ... well, I'm still not sure whether the edge of the shovel got stuck under a root or rock, but the handle suddenly snapped lengthwise along the grain. This was a fairly new shovel. Fortunately, I had a spade with a fiberglass handle and was able to finish digging out the pipe. (Actually, I have several other spades, but they all have wooden handles, and I was reluctant to use them).

Lessons learned: (1) Another example of "two is one, and one is none."  Have backups or substitutes for basic tools. (2) Modern technologies have given us better handles, so use them. I have made sure that my sledge hammer and certain other tools have plastic or fiber glass handles, which are generally stronger and more resistant to breaking and splitting. (3) Sometimes you have to grin and bear it. Things go wrong, but c'est la vie.

My son recently was reading that coconut milk works very well for getting cuttings from fruit trees to sprout. We picked up a can of coconut milk, and will try it with a cutting from a cherry tree and a plum tree. Hopefully, in two or three weeks, I will be able to let you know how it worked.

Concealed Carry Options for Women

An article at Concealed Nation.

TTAG Self-Defense Tip: Practice Shooting Multiple Targets

Another good tip from The Truth About Firearms Blog.

Locating Shooters--There's an App for That

From the Daily Mail:

An app that can pinpoint a gunman's location simply by analysing the sound and shockwaves from a gunshot have been revealed by US researchers. 

The Android app can show a map of exactly where the gunman is located, and is expected to be developed for military and police use in the war on terror. 

... The system works on the principle that all but the lowest powered firearms produce unique sonic signatures when they are fired.  

First, there is the muzzle blast – an expanding balloon of sound that spreads out from the muzzle each time the rifle is fired.  

Second, bullets travel at supersonic velocities so they produce distinctive shockwaves as they travel.  

As a result, a system that combines an array of sensitive microphones, a precise clock and an off-the-shelf microprocessor can detect these signatures and use them to pinpoint the location from which a shot is fired with remarkable accuracy, the researchers say.

In addition to the smartphone, the system consists of an external sensor module about the size of a deck of cards that contains the microphones and the processing capability required to detect the acoustic signature of gunshots, log their time and send that information to the smartphone by a Bluetooth connection.
The researchers have developed two versions.  

One uses a single microphone per module.

It uses both the muzzle blast and shockwave to determine the shooter location. It requires six modules to obtain accurate locations.

The second version uses a slightly larger module with four microphones and relies solely on the shockwave.

It requires only two modules to accurately detect the direction a shot comes from, however, it only provides a rough estimate of the range.

 Obviously, using a silencer and subsonic ammo would obviate the sound waves needed for detection.

Survival UK Beginning a Series on Urban Survival

(Link here).

Military Censoring Southern Baptist Convention Website?

Fox News reports that the Southern Baptist Convention website has been blocked from access at an indeterminate number of military bases. The DOD claims that it was unintentional, but this may be questionable given the recent U.S. Army training that included Catholics and evangelical Christians among a list of dangerous "extremists."

Why You Should Stay Inside During A Gunfight

Lt. Col. Robert Bateman, upset about the amatuer video of the gunfights between law enforcement and the Boston Bombers, writes in Esquire about why you should stay inside or get away from a gun fight.

He writes, in part:

2. Power, with guns, is dictated by physics. As my father the physicist taught me at way too early of an age, F = M x A. Force = Mass x Acceleration. The striking, or penetrating, power of the bullet is determined by how heavy (mass) it is, multiplied by how fast it is moving. Thus, a small bullet, moving at extreme speeds, can cause a lot of damage. A large bullet can move at much slower speeds, and cause the same damage. All other things being equal, however, the higher the speed, the greater the penetration. Now, that word "penetration" is one you should think about. 

*** 

6. In the real world, I have converted a sedan into a convertible, quite easily, using bullets. Not even a lot of bullets either. If the other guy is firing anything with greater hitting power than, say, a .32 (Google .32 caliber, .45 caliber, 5.56mm and 7.62mm...I can't do it ALL for you) it will go through things. Metals, woods, sheet-rock? No problem. Your front door will not protect you, at all. Nor will the walls of a normal suburban house, nor the three Sheet-rock walls beyond that. In a car, the only thing that really stops most bullets would be the engine block itself. All the rest of the body of a car, well, basically tin-foil. All those cop movies you remember from the 70s, when they hid behind the opened door of their patrol car and shot at the bad guy? Yea, no. Do not think that works. That is stupid, and nobody but actors in Hollywood actually does that. 

*** 

7. SO, the bottom line is this: If you are in a place where you hear steady, and sustained, and nearby (lets call that, for some technical reasons, anything less than 800 meters) gunfire, do these things:
*Go to your basement. You are cool there.
*If you don't have a basement, go to the other side of the house from the firing, and leave, heading away from the firing. Do not stop for a mile.
*If you do not think that you can leave, get on the ground floor, as far from the firing as possible, and place something solid between you and the firing. Solid is something like a bathtub, a car (engine block), a couple of concrete walls (single layer brick...nope).
*If you are high up (say 4rd  [sic] story or higher) just get away from the side of the building where the firing is taking place. You will, mostly, be protected by the thick concrete of the structure.

I think he is being over simplistic--penetration depends on a lot of factors, including the construction of the bullet, the shape of the bullet, the length of the bullet, the type of material it is striking, and so on--but the gist is generally correct. Most modern construction, especially houses, provide only concealment, not cover.

More Photos From Chernobyl

The Daily Mail has photos and an article on the ruins of Chernobyl. These are different from sets they have run before.

Gun Hoarders

The SHTF Blog discusses the phenomena of people that "prep" by buying lots of firearms and ammo, but doing little or nothing for food storage, and suggests that these types will be a prepper's worst threat in a SHTF situation. The author writes:

My impression, based on many conversations with various preppers, is that those in the “firearms only” category break down further into two categories: those that buy firearms with the intent of stocking up on other supplies later (and then never do), and those more evil individuals who plan to use their firearms to take what they need (whether they verbalize that intent or not). I suspect the majority do not fall into the latter category as I believe most people are generally kind at heart, but they may inevitably enter the “take by force” crowd when the chips are down.

He suggests three strategies: (i) stay away from them (and practice your OPSEC), (ii) outgun them (which may be difficult at best), or (iii) befriend them (although I would note that this violates the principles of OPSEC).

Although I can't find the comment now, one of the comments I read when I first came across this story questioned whether this was because of the emphasis placed on weapons and self-defense on survival web-sites; basically, more people write about firearms, and write more about firearms, than they do food storage or gardening. This is a good point. I think there are some reasons for this. First, I've noticed that the web-sites authored by women tend to focus more on the food and other preps--i.e., nurturing and nesting type activities. Men seem to focus more on protecting against dangers--both environmental (fire, shelter) and predators (firearms, knives). Second, people tend to write about what they are comfortable in discussing. There is a smaller learning curve to becoming competent with firearms compared to gardening or nutrition. Third, it is more interesting to write about the latest red dot sight or tactical shotgun than how to prevent an infestation of potato bugs. Finally, and probably most importantly, everyone has an opinion about firearms.

Returning to the original post, I have had my own experiences with the "gun hoarder" type. I became friends with a co-worker who was interested in firearms, and we began going shooting. He knew I was LDS, and that Mormons were supposed to store food. So, in the course of time, he learned that my wife and I had put up some food storage; he'd been to my house and seen some of it. He would joke that if the "zombie apocalypse" happened, he would be coming to my house to get the food. I'm sure he was joking, and he lives some distance away, but the fact is that he has firearms, he is proficient with them, and he knows that I have some extra food tucked away.

I feel fairly comfortable talking about food storage with other members of the LDS church because we are all supposed to be doing it, and most do to some extent or another. However, I have learned not to discuss food storage or other survival preps with anyone else unless they are a close friend who I would be willing to take in and share with during an emergency.

Spain's Population Falls As Foreign Workers Give Up

The Daily Mail reports that Spain's population fell by 206,000 last year, primarily as a result of foreign born workers leaving the country, presumably because of the poor economy (the story notes that the unemployment rate is 26% and the youth unemployment rate is over 50%). Sadly, the population of native Spaniards only grew by 10,000 last year according to the article--out of a population of 47.1 million. With figures like that, Spain seems to be circling the drain.

Midwest Flooding

From the Daily Mail:

At least three people have died in flooding that is causing havoc across the Midwest.

In all three deaths - two at the same spot in Indiana and one in Missouri - vehicles were swept off the road in flash floods.

The flooding was started by torrential rain last week which caused the Mississippi and many other rivers to surge in Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana.

And the misery is not over as forecasters say more rain is expected tonight and tomorrow in many places.
Flood waters claimed the life of an Indiana man and Missouri woman after their vehicles were submerged as the Midwest braces for potentially record-level flooding and torrential downpour.

Robert Morgan, 64, of Arcadia, Indiana, died Friday attempting to drive his car through the rising water.
He was carried 100 yards downstream in Hamilton County, according to a statement from the Hamilton County Sheriff's Office.

Police responded to a 911 call from a motorist who said his vehicle was sinking in the same spot where Morgan's car was submerged.

Upon arrival, rescuers found an unoccupied truck 200 feet from the roadway. The phone that called 911 belonged to an Arcadia resident, but the owner had not been found, police said.

Review--The Butterfly Wallet

Those of you that have seen the TV series Seinfield may remember the episode where the George Castanza character's wallet is so full of cards, receipts, etc., that he can't fold the wallet and it ends up exploding. While my wallet has never gotten that bad, I really hate having to carry a wallet around because most are bulky compared to the what I need to carry.

Last year I bought new glasses which required a special cleaning cloth, which came in a plastic sleeve. I discovered that it was just the right size to accept my drivers license and a debit card, so I started travelling light. However, as time went on, I needed to carry more items with me. It wasn't very convenient for carrying cash. Also, the plastic started to split and age, and, frankly, I looked like a bum trying to pull a card or cash out of the wallet.

What I wanted was something like a wallet, but a lot lighter. Then, a few weeks ago, I came across the Butterfly Wallet while shopping in REI.

It comes in different colors, including violet, blue, lime and black. As indicated at the manufacturer's website, the wallet is made of ripstop nylon and weighs just 0.2 oz. And it is small. As you can see, it is a tri-fold design, and each pocket is the size of a credit card. Because it lacks the bulk of a regular wallet, it is still dimensionaly only slightly larger than a credit card when folded up.

After using for a few weeks, I have to give it high ratings. It is lightweight and small. I can easily fit it in a pocket with my cell phone, if need be. It keeps my cash, cards and ID handy and organized. Although I have pulled it out and found the cards to have slid out about a quarter inch, I haven't yet had any cards slide completely out. My personal experience is that it actually seems to work better with more cards in it. For instance, the photo from the manufacturer (above) shows a single card in each pocket. I think in that case, it would probably be loose enough to lose something. I carry two to three credit cards, ID cards, membership cards, discount cards, etc., per pocket, which works just fine.

I like it and I recommend it for anyone tired of carrying around a bulky wallet.

America's Achilles Heel--Electrical Transformers (Updated and Bumped)

From the Captain's Journal:

The most vulnerable structure, system or component for large scale coal plants is the main step up transformer – that component that handles electricity at 230 or 500 kV. They are one of a kind components, and no two are exactly alike. They are so huge and so heavy that they must be transported to the site via special designed rail cars intended only for them, and only about three of these exist in the U.S.They are no longer fabricated in the U.S., much the same as other large scale steel fabrication. It’s manufacture has primarily gone overseas. These step up transformers must be ordered years in advance of their installation. Some utilities are part of a consortium to keep one of these transformers available for multiple coal units, hoping that more will not be needed at any one time. In industrial engineering terms, the warehouse min-max for these components is a fine line.

On any given day with the right timing, several well trained, dedicated, well armed fighters would be able to force their way on to utility property, fire missiles or lay explosives at the transformer, destroy it, and perhaps even go to the next given the security for coal plants. Next in line along the transmission system are other important transformers, not as important as the main step up transformers, but still important, that would also be vulnerable to attack. With the transmission system in chaos and completely isolated due to protective relaying, and with the coal units that supply the majority of the electricity to the nation incapable of providing that power for years due to the wait for step up transformers, whole cites, heavy industry, and homes and businesses would be left in the dark for a protracted period of time, all over the nation.

The economy would collapse, regardless of how much good will and positive hope there was among the ruling elite. The hard facts of life – America in the dark – would soon become apparent to everyone, and the economy wouldn’t be able to absorb it.

Bob Owen's blog elaborates on this:

After the Dot Com bubble burst in the early 2000s, I took a job in upstate New York for a subcontractor of Central Hudson Gas and Electric. I was part of a crew sent out to map electrical transmission line power poles and towers via GPS, check the tower footings for integrity, check the best routes for access, etc.

It meant I rode quads (ATVs) through mountains, swamps, forests, neighborhoods and farms all over southern New York, in winter’s icy chill and blowing snow, and in summer’s melting heat. It was exhausting work, often in beautiful scenery.

... what I remember most about the job were the days we spent up near the Rondout Reservoir. What I remember in specific was discovering how powerless the government was to protect key utilities.

In a post-9/11 New York, where terrorism was foremost on the minds of many, you simply didn’t mess around near New York City’s water supply, and Roundout was part of that equation.

The thought that we could be viewed as a threat as we rode the hills around the reservoir for several days never crossed our minds, because we were focused on our jobs minding the electrical transmission lines, not the waters flowing nearby.

It wasn’t until late on the second day, where we parked right beside the dam’s offices, that law enforcement caught up to us. Apparently we’d been the on again, off again suspects in a low intensity chase for two days, with the law enforcement agency that was in charge of providing security for the reservoir (NYDNR, maybe?) trying to chase us down, without any luck. They didn’t catch us until we parked the truck beside their HQ on the afternoon of the second day and began unloading our gear right under their windows.

That it took them 14 hours to “catch” us was a little unsettling. Then I started thinking about the much more fragile structures we were working beside routinely.

You see, we’d ridden up to edge of the Danskammer and Roseton power generating stations, and a dozen or more unattended substations during the course of this contract, without being challenged at all.

Substations like the one above could be accessed not just from surface roads, but from access trails under the power lines by people with UTVs, ATVs, and motorcycles. 

Just like the residential transformers in your neighborhood, the transformers in substations are cooled with a form of mineral oil. If someone decides to blast a transformer at its base as prepper Bryan Smith did, and the oil drains out, then the transformer either burns out catastrophically, or if the utility is lucky, a software routine notices the problem and shuts the substation (or at least the affected portion) down. The power must then be rerouted through the remaining grid until that transformer can be replaced and any other resulting damage can be repaired.

Were an angry group of disenfranchised citizens to target in a strategic manner the substations leading to a city or geographic area—say, Albany, for example—they could put the area in the dark for as long as it took to bring the substations back online. Were they committed enough, and spread their attacks out over a wide enough area, perhaps mixing in a few tens of dozens of the residential transformers found every few hundred yards along city streets, they could overwhelm the utility companies ability to repair the damage being caused or law enforcement’s ability to stop them. The government could perhaps assign a soldier or cop for every transformer, substation and switch, but they’d run out of men long before they ran out of things they need guarded. Not that the government could even guarantee to actually protect the transformers they were guarding; a residential transformer is a big, stationary target, and the substation transformers and switches and other equipment even bigger targets. Residential transformers are easily “touched” by even a moderately competent deer hunter from hundreds of yards away, perhaps separated by roads, subdivisions, swamps or streams. Substations are a dense area target easily struck from a half-mile or more away.
Meanwhile, the lone wolves and small teams would simply shift to other targets of opportunity left unguarded by an overwhelmed and outmatched government force, of which there are many.

How many days with partial power or no power, how many nights in the dark, would it take before the local economy collapsed in the targeted area? Insurgents could cripple a city, region, or state, without ever firing a bullet at another human being.

 Update (April 17, 2013): I just came across this April 16 article (via Survival Blog) about sabotage of electrical transformers in California:

South Bay authorities have announced that a coordinated act of vandalism that took down electricity and phone service on Tuesday.

One of those incidents happened at a PG&E substation in San Jose. 

The Santa Clara County Sheriff's Department is now conducting a criminal investigation. 

"PG&E notified us that they had a breach in their security fence and that somebody had actually gained access to the substation and damaged, I believe, they're either transformers or radiators," said Kurtis Stenderup of the Santa Clara County Sheriff's Department.

At least five of the seven banks of transformers appear to have been shot, causing them to leak oil. 

Authorities in charge of the state's power grid are asking South Bay customers to conserve electricity at least until midnight Wednesday morning. So far, PG&E says there have been no outages and the state's Flex Alert warning is just a precaution.

"As we conduct the investigation there may be equipment that may need to be taken offline or out of service," said Nicole Liebelt of PG&E.

Just a short distance from the substation someone cut an AT&T phone cable leaving people in the city of Gilroy unable to call emergency services like 911 from their landlines.

Bird Flu Outbreak in England

Nothing big, but worth watching. Full story here.

Fed and Bank of Japan Caused Collapse of Gold Prices

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes that the policies by the Fed and the Bank of Japan caused the sudden drop in gold prices last week. He writes:

It is becoming ever clearer that the roaring boom in global equities since last summer has priced in an economic recovery that does not in fact exist. The International Monetary Fund has had to nurse down its global growth forecasts yet again. We are still stuck in an old-fashioned trade depression, with pervasive over-capacity in manufacturing plant and a record global savings rate of 25pc of GDP.


... The upward trend of the great bull market has been broken. The technical damage is brutal. Bank of America expects a further drop to $1,200. Be patient. 

My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan "caused" the gold crash. The rest is noise. The Fed assault began in February when it published a paper warning that the longer quantitative easing continues, the harder it will be for the bank to extricate itself. 

... This was a shock. It suggested that the Fed has lost its nerve, and will think long and hard before launching a fresh blitz of money if growth falters.

Then came last week's Fed Minutes, with hints of tapering off QE earlier that expected. That was the next shock. What they seemed to be saying is that the US economy is groping it way back to normality, that the era of silly money is over, that the dollar will stand tall again.

If that were the case, gold should fall. But it is not the case. The US economy is growing below the Fed's own "stall speed" indicator. Half a million people fell out of the workforce in March. Retail sales fell in March. So did manufacturing.

... My guess is that the Fed will be forced to row back smartly from its exit talk, but first we must look deflation in the eyes.

As for the Bank of Japan, it had been assumed that the colossal monetary stimulus of Haruhiko Kuroda would revive the yen-carry trade, leaking $1 trillion into world asset markets. But the early evidence is the opposite. Japanese investors brought money home last week.

"Mrs Watanabe" is selling her Kiwi and Aussie bonds to bet on stocks and property at home. And she is selling gold like never before. That too is a shock.

Japan's "Abenomics" may prove a net drag on the world over coming months. It is exporting deflation through trade effects. This already visible in Korea and China, where soaring wages have eroded competitiveness. "Investors may have forgotten that yen weakness was one of the immediate causes of the 1997 Asian currency crisis and Asia’s subsequent economic collapse," said Albert Edwards from Societe Generale.

China's growth rate fell to 7.7pc in the first quarter. It will fall further, though the catch-up boom in the hinterland cities of Chengdu, Chonquing, Changsa and Xi'an may have further to run.

Fitch Ratings says credit has surged from €9 trillion to €23 trillion over the past four years, a rise equal to the entire US banking system. Beijing pumped up loans yet again after its recession scare in the summer, but is gaining less traction. The GDP growth effect of credit has halved. It is the classic sign of an economy sated on debt. China too will have to deleverage.

The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. "There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now," said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank

The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.

What Caused the Sudden Decline in Gold Prices?

From NBC News:

The two-day crash in the price of gold is one of the most devastating asset sell-offs ever witnessed on Wall Street, right up there with the stock market crash of 1987. What makes it that much worse is no one is exactly sure why it happened.
... It seems like every trader on Wall Street has a theory for the move. Most commonly cited are fears of central bank selling (especially Cyprus), exchange-traded funds liquidation, global deflation setting in, a weak yen strengthening the dollar, and mysterious hedge funds blowing up from margin calls.


... Many say there may not be a fundamental reason to pinpoint for the bullion crash. After all, the metal has no fundamentals like cash flows or dividends, so it is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. After a 13-year run, perhaps it was time for other assets like Treasurys and high-yielding stocks to gain favor among the safe-haven crowd.



"Commodities trade even more technically than other assets since it's futures driven," said Enis Taner, global macro editor for RiskReversal.com. The crash "was technical more than anything in my view."



Taner points to the $1,530 to $1,550 area for gold, which was support for the metal for almost two years. Once it broke below that, the rush for the exits started.



And that's where a new facet of this trade, which was not around in 1980, may have thrown fuel on the fire: ETFs. They give the average Joe access to the gold futures market and these less sophisticated investors may not have the same pain threshold or capital as institutional investors.

 Or maybe its fear of banks defaulting on gold contracts.

Strategies for Magazine Limitations

Another firearm related article from Guns Magazine for those in New York and other jurisdictions that limit the number of rounds you can carry in a defensive weapon:

“Spray and pray” or “hose the foes” was never a sound strategy, even with higher capacity handguns, and it’s all the more hopeless with a severely limited ammunition reservoir. A law born as a knee-jerk reaction to the murder of the helpless never took into account the fact that when the time comes to stop those violent murderers, they are likely to be in such a state of rage that one or two bullets are unlikely to stop them unless the shots are perfectly placed. That reality does indeed make powerful cartridges all the more important.

It also means that the old gunfighter’s aphorism “speed’s fine, but accuracy’s final” must come again to the forefront. Have a gun whose sights you can aim with. Invoke another bit of wisdom invoked by gunfighters from Wyatt Earp to Texas Ranger John Hughes to Bill Jordan: “Take your time, quick.” Accuracy of fire vs. volume of fire is no longer a debate when volume of fire has been taken away from you as an option.

Spare ammo will be all the more important. ... From WWI through Korea, American troops with 1911 .45 autos and a couple of spare 7-round mags were considered the best-armed handgunners on the battlefield. Still, there was a reason any serviceman issued a .45 was issued two spare mags to be carried with it.

... Backup gun? I think it’s a great idea no matter how many rounds you’re allowed in your primary handgun, and all the more important if you’re limited to a low-capacity gun.

Using Telescopic Sights

Continuing on the theme of my last post, which was on operating a bolt-action rifle, Guns Magazine has also published some useful articles on using and adjusting telescopic sights. For instance, this article explains some basics as to how scopes are designed and built. Another article addresses how to use a long-range tactical scope. Another, which I just happened to be perusing the other day in the print edition, addresses adjusting your scope for parallax and distortion.

Operating the Bolt Action Rifle

Sometimes its good to review the basics ... or to incorporate them. One of the reasons I like to shoot a semi-auto rifle is that I don't have to worry about working the action. That said, I have developed a poor habit with bolt action rifles which is to not immediately operate the bolt upon firing. While acceptable for target shooting, it is a poor habit for hunting, where quick follow up shots may be necessary. Guns Magazine has a recent article on this topic:

A few principles apply with all methods. The rifle remains shouldered as the bolt is operated. Firing a shot, lowering the rifle while working the bolt, then shouldering it again is slow, tacky, and just wrong.

Reload immediately after firing. The shot sequence doesn’t end when the shot is fired; it ends when the rifle is ready to fire the next shot. Reloading should be so quick and habitual the action is being worked while the shot is still echoing. If another shot isn’t needed there will be plenty of time to clear the chamber and reload the magazine.

Work the bolt briskly. Don’t abuse the rifle but don’t baby it either. Run it like you mean it. Whatever direction the bolt is traveling, keep it going until some mechanical feature of the rifle stops it.

A common error is for a shooter to see the fired case eject and immediately begin moving the bolt forward, before it has moved far enough back to pick up a fresh cartridge. Remember: The rifle, not the shooter, stops movement of the bolt. Lift the bolt until it won’t lift further. Pull it back until it hits the bolt stop. The bolt stop will take it. If it won’t you need a better rifle.

 The article also goes into a few techniques for gripping the bolt and the author illustrates with photos both the steps to operating the bolt, as well as his favorite method of grip.

Elite Panic

From an interview with Rebecca Solnit, author of A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster. (h/t Instapundit)

Though Solnit is one of San Francisco’s most devoted residents, we met in Manhattan to discuss her latest offering, A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster, a tour through a century of North American catastrophes that deftly guides us through the rubble that results from the volatile combination of social darwinism and disaster. After opening with an astounding portrait of San Francisco’s devastating 1906 earthquake, Solnit takes readers to Halifax in 1917, where a cargo-ship crash caused the largest man-made explosion before the invention of the atom bomb. In Mexico City she revisits the 1985 earthquake, spending time with seamstresses who organized themselves after witnessing bosses who rushed to salvage machinery while workers perished. Solnit then presents 9/11 through the eyes of survivors and volunteers before taking an unsparing look at New Orleans during and after Hurricane Katrina. There, the apathy of government authorities and unremorseful confessions of racist vigilantes who killed innocent people in order to protect their property against imaginary looters stands in dramatic contrast to the stories of selfless citizens who navigated their boats down flooded streets to rescue stranded citizens, opened their homes to flood survivors, or traveled to Louisiana to contribute to the rebuilding of the broken city.

... AT One of the most interesting ideas in the book is the concept of “elite panic”—the way that elites, during disasters and their aftermath, imagine that the public is not only in danger but also a source of danger. You show in case after case how elites respond in destructive ways, from withholding essential information, to blocking citizen relief efforts, to protecting property instead of people. As you write in the book, “there are grounds for fear of a coherent insurgent public, not just an overwrought, savage one.”

RS The term “elite panic” was coined by Caron Chess and Lee Clarke of Rutgers. From the beginning of the field in the 1950s to the present, the major sociologists of disaster—Charles Fritz, Enrico Quarantelli, Kathleen Tierney, and Lee Clarke—proceeding in the most cautious, methodical, and clearly attempting-to-be-politically-neutral way of social scientists, arrived via their research at this enormous confidence in human nature and deep critique of institutional authority. It’s quite remarkable.

Elites tend to believe in a venal, selfish, and essentially monstrous version of human nature, which I sometimes think is their own human nature. I mean, people don’t become incredibly wealthy and powerful by being angelic, necessarily. They believe that only their power keeps the rest of us in line and that when it somehow shrinks away, our seething violence will rise to the surface—that was very clear in Katrina. Timothy Garton Ash and Maureen Dowd and all these other people immediately jumped on the bandwagon and started writing commentaries based on the assumption that the rumors of mass violence during Katrina were true. A lot of people have never understood that the rumors were dispelled and that those things didn’t actually happen; it’s tragic.
But there’s also an elite fear—going back to the 19th century—that there will be urban insurrection. It’s a valid fear. I see these moments of crisis as moments of popular power and positive social change. The major example in my book is Mexico City, where the ’85 earthquake prompted public disaffection with the one-party system and, therefore, the rebirth of civil society.

Read the whole thing.

Shodan

CNN calls Shodan the scariest search engine on the Internet.

Unlike Google ..., which crawls the Web looking for websites, Shodan navigates the Internet's back channels. It's a kind of "dark" Google, looking for the servers, webcams, printers, routers and all the other stuff that is connected to and makes up the Internet.

... Shodan runs 24/7 and collects information on about 500 million connected devices and services each month.

It's stunning what can be found with a simple search on Shodan. Countless traffic lights, security cameras, home automation devices and heating systems are connected to the Internet and easy to spot.

Shodan searchers have found control systems for a water park, a gas station, a hotel wine cooler and a crematorium. Cybersecurity researchers have even located command and control systems for nuclear power plants and a particle-accelerating cyclotron by using Shodan.

What's really noteworthy about Shodan's ability to find all of this -- and what makes Shodan so scary -- is that very few of those devices have any kind of security built into them.

"It's a massive security failure," said HD Moore, chief security officer of Rapid 7, who operates a private version of a Shodan-like database for his own research purposes.

Why Pirates Used Eye Patches

From the Wall Street Journal:

Adjusting to the dim light next to your bed should only take seconds. But when going from bright light to maximum darkness, studies have shown, eye sensitivity continues to change for up to 25 minutes, he says.

Just ask a pirate.

"Ever wonder why a pirate wears patches? It's not because he was wounded in a sword fight," says Dr. Sheedy. Seamen must constantly move between the pitch black of below decks and the bright sunshine above.

Smart pirates "wore a patch over one eye to keep it dark-adapted outside." Should a battle break out and the pirate had to shimmy below, he would simply switch the patch to the outdoor eye and he could see in the dark right away—saving him 25 minutes of flailing his cutlass about in near blindness.

America's Kingmen

And it came to pass that those who were desirous that Pahoran should be dethroned from the judgment-seat were called king-men, for they were desirous that the law should be altered in a manner to overthrow the free government and to establish a king over the land.

Alma 51:5.  Some of America's king-men:

The 50 most prominent American dynasties have been named in the newest issue of Town and County Magazine, and a few surprises - including Rahm Emanuel and his brothers - made the list.

The magazine broke down its top-50 list into five categories including the most powerful, inspiring, generous, enduring and creative families.

Topping the list as most powerful is the Bush family, which includes two former presidents, a senator and two governors.
Coming in second place behind the Bushes is the Kerry family, including Secretary of the State John Kerry, and then the Murdochs, the Emanuel brothers and the Kennedys.

Rupert Murdoch is the billionaire chairman and CEO of News Corporation and the Emanuels include Chicago Mayor Rahm, healthcare consultant Ezekiel and Hollywood superagent Ari.

Review: Aftermath!

(Source: Fantasy Games Unlimited)

How did you become interested in prepping? I grew up in the LDS Church which, as you probably know, encourages its members to put up a year's supply of food and keep a "72-hour kit" on hand for disasters. The Church also engages in other emergency preparation, such as the Church's canneries where members and nonmembers may volunteer to can food, and then buy at discount, canned goods and dry goods for food storage. In my area, the Church authorities maintain lists of members with special skills or tools that would be useful in a disaster. One of the my brothers lives in an area where the Church maintains a list of people with short wave radios in order to maintain communications in the event of a disaster.

However, that is not the only influence in my life. It seems corny in retrospect, but my interest in prepping was fed and shaped to certain extent by science fiction novels, such as Lucifer's Hammer, and even role playing games. Yes, as a high school student, my friends and I enjoyed table-top role playing games, including Dungeons and Dragons. However, rather than focusing on a single game or milieu, we tried many different games. One of the games we came across was  Aftermath! published by Fantasy Games Unlimited. (Also available for sale as a PDF download here). Since I recently uncovered a box in my attic where my copy was stashed away, I decided to pull it out and look at it again, and do this review.

The game was authored in the 1980's, and reflects the fears of nuclear war from that time. Although the game contains rules and ideas for alternative settings and disasters, the game was written with the assumption of a large scale nuclear war destroying world civilization sometime in the 1990's, and the story line for the players (the "campaign") beginning approximately 20 years later. In that respect, it is more similar to the show Revolution rather than Jericho. However, it would be easy to change the game setting to something immediately following an apocalyptic event.

All role-playing games are a "model" of the real world to a greater or lessor extent. What set Aftermath! apart from other role-playing games is that it attempts to be as realistic and accurate as possible within the confines of a role-playing game. That is, it attempts to accurately model the accuracy and lethality of firearms, the impact of disease and starvation, character development, and even the technology. On the latter point, there are certain concessions in order to make the game more interesting. First, because the "apocalypse" was to take place a decade or more in the future from the time the game was made, the authors made certain assumptions or predictions as to what technology would be like, including a few that they freely admit were to make the game more dramatic: they postulated advances in robotics and computers that, for the most part, still lie in the realm of science fiction; they postulated the development of preservation techniques that would allow food and equipment to be still salvageable 20 years later; and they postulated dramatic increases in the availability and use of solar power (to, in effect, make electricity "salvageable"). For those interested in "space opera" or "fantasy" elements, they provided pointers for such disasters, and they try to include rules to cover some of the popular post-apocalypse books extant at the time.

Like I noted, however, the authors attempted to provide a realistic model. Thus, there are rules on diseases and poisons (addressing even different vectors for diseases), the strength of barriers (even recognizing the difference between cover and concealment), extremely detailed rules on firearms (including step-by-step on how to load a blackpowder muzzleloading arm), explosives and fragmentation, vehicles and accidents, food and water, and electricity and technology. (While I haven't read it, there apparently was a supplement to update the technology which was published in 2008).

Just a couple examples on some of the details that were put into the game. In a section on animals, it includes a list of the "usefulness of animals" including a percentage of mass that is edible (e.g., 75% for a cockroach versus 33% for a human), the number of "man-days" of rations, and chance of contamination. I don't know how accurate the table is, but it shows that the authors put a lot of effort and thought into the details. It also has details on the effect of nuclear weapons (including health effects from certain levels of radiation exposure--200 REM, 500 REM, 750 REM, and 1000 REM) and chemical weapons.

Of course, some of the details could be dangerous to someone relying on them. For instance, the rules notes the following about ammonium nitrate explosives:

The fertlizer is sold in 25 kg sacks, which should be soaked in kerosene (kerosene is not the correct material) and allowed to dry. Use of a fulminating primer (see below) will set it off. Extreme heat will cause it to ignite and burn, but not explosively. It is otherwise completely stable. 

A simple chemical treatment with a substance so common we are not really sure we should mention it will turn any ammoniated nitrate fertilizer into a very efficient explosive.

(Emphasis in original). A couple obvious problems, one not dangerous, but the other definitely so.

First, the authors do not mention that the fertilizer prills are larger and have thicker coatings which make it better for fertilizer but less effective for explosives. (Thus the reason why the British in Northern Ireland used the sound of coffee grinders to track down explosives labs). Of course, they can't be blamed for holding this detail back since the game was marketed to kids and we obviously don't want kids trying to mix up a recipe like this.

The second major problem is actually more dangerous--stating that kerosene won't work--because it can. (Actually, I've seen this come up in television programs--Burn Notice, for example--that attempt to keep the public "safe" by pretending not to disclose the "real ingredients," so this issue is not limited to just this game). The Atlas book on Explosives and Rock Blasting states:

In the early 1950s, it was discovered that No. 2 diesel fuel oil, when mixed with prills at the level of 5.5 - 6.0% by weight, produced a practical and inexpensive blasting agent. This optimum ratio provides the best explosive performance and fewest postblast toxic fumes. (It is important to stress that only No. 2 fuel oil should be used. No. 1 fuel oil, kerosene, and gasoline must not be used. These fuels will not improve performance. However, these fuels will increase the hazard of vapor explosion because of their volatility and low flash point. The use of crude or crankcase oil is also unacceptable  These, too, may contain volatile impurities and may also include gritty particles that could increase sensitivity.)

(Emphasis in original). Why should this matter? Well, as noted, the game was marketed to teens, and I'm sure that there is some teen, somewhere, that may give it a go notwithstanding the instructions that kerosene is the wrong ingredient, and actually wind up with something more dangerous than if they had used the right ingredients.

There are some other interesting factors to the games. For instance, the range of bows and similar "muscle-powered" missile weapons are determined by the users strength. The game recognizes the different types of gun actions and barrel lengths. A character's knowledge is broken down into "skills," meaning that no one can be an expert at everything (or even most things). It has rules on hunting, gathering, bartering, and foraging and scavenging. The downside to all of the detail and attempt to be realistic is that the rules are complicated. There is a two-page flowchart needed to describe how combat should be resolved. Frankly, this game really needs to have some aspects set into a spreadsheet or computer program.

The ultimate question is whether this game has any use to preppers. Obviously, for someone interested in entertainment involving a post-apocalypse world, the entertainment value would be enough to justify looking at this game. As a game, no matter how realistic the authors have attempted to make it, it cannot replace actual training and experience. It will not teach you how to purify water, start a fire, or the ins-and-outs of food storage. However, it can do a couple of things. First, it may provide another way to spark in interest in prepping. Second, and perhaps more importantly, it could be used as a way to experiment or model details that you can't train for. For instance, the rules on combat could be used as a table-top simulation of an attack on your home or retreat. More broadly, you could develop a "campaign" that involves your neighborhood or city after a particular type of disaster. I'm not saying that such scenarios would end up being realistic--garbage in-garbage out, and all of that. But, like the "war games" that the military uses, it could allow you to explore issues and situations, and provide insights, you might not otherwise have.

Jewish Families Survived Holocaust By Living in Cave...

... for 18 months. (Full story here).

Are Submachine Guns Obsolete?

That is the question recently posed by The Firearms Blog. The author, Alex C., wrote:

This is a topic I was pondering the other day. I thought to myself “is there any one role where a submachine gun stands out among the rest as the best firearm for any given situation?”

And I couldn’t think of one. Not one. They are much bigger than a pistol, and thus too big to conceal yet they use the same ammunition. [This is not completely true--most countries that widely used submachine guns used much more powerful rounds for submachine guns than would typically be used in a handgun of the same caliber, which should be kept in mind if buying old surplus 9 mm.] The barrel lengths are often comparable as well so the performance increase of the round from an SMG is negligible (in most cases). They do not have the effective range of an assault rifle, and their cyclic rate is comparable. I believe they are not as efficient as a shotgun in close quarters for some type of entry type situation either, albeit I guess this is somewhat debatable.

For some reason, it reminded me of this statement from Roger Ford in his book, The World's Great Handguns--From 1450 to the Present Day: "As the twentieth century draws to a close, the days of the handgun as a military weapon seem to be numbered--though we would probably do well to remember that no less a soldier than Wellington himself suggested the same, well over a 150 years ago." (p. 174). Of course, handguns remain important as military weapons, but even more important as civilian weapons.

I'll be upfront and say that I have no practical experience with a submachine gun--I don't own one and have never fired one. However, it is possible to reason out the role where a submachine gun stands out.

The problem with Alex C.'s analysis is the narrow focus. Alex C. provided a good, albeit short, history of the development of the submachine gun and its influence in the development of the modern assault rifle. Basically, as he relates, the submachine gun was developed in an era where the standard military sidearm was a bolt-action rifle shooting a high-power rifle, and its purpose was to provide soldiers automatic fire at close range engagements, such as the trenches of WWI and, later, the hedgerows and urban combat of WWII. He also correctly notes that it was the convergence of the larger rifles with the smaller submachine gun that produced the assault rifle; and that it was the failure of the West to adopt an intermediate rifle cartridge that resulted in the Western European nations retaining the submachine gun well into the 1960s and 1970s, when they finally adopted the 5.56 cartridge. (The U.S. similarly continued using the M-1 carbine until the adoption of the M-16).

The focus on the military role of the submachine as the measure of whether there is any reason or role for it is as shortsighted, however, as considering the demise of the handgun as a calvary arm a sign that there is (or would be) no role for the handgun in the future. Of course, if it were not for the Federal restrictions on the purchase of submachine guns, and prohibition on the manufacture of new submachine guns for civilian sales, this would probably not be an issue because the submachine gun would have continued down the path of its natural evolution.

It is somewhat helpful to see the trend in submachine gun development to see where it is going (or might have gone). The first generation of submachine guns (the WWI to 1930's) were large, heavy, carefully machined weapons that generally weighed as much or more than a bolt-action military rifle, but were significantly more expensive to manufacture. Examples are the famous Thompson submachine gun, the Lanchester in England, and the Finnish Suomi. Notably, these weapons all fired from open bolts--i.e., pulling the trigger released the bolt to go forward, pick up a cartridge, chamber the cartridge, and fire the weapon. Besides being simpler to manufacture, this design also reduced the occurrence of "cook-offs" from excessive heat from intense period of firing. (Many machine guns employ an open bolt design for the same reason). Unfortunately, this type of action also jars the weapon, reducing potential accuracy (although the Finnish Suomi was capable of accurate fire out to 300 yards).

During the interwar period, in which the submachine gun saw increased popularity due to conflicts such as the Spanish Civil War and wars in China, two important developments took place. The first, which we will get back to, was the production of the first true machine pistols--handguns (such as the Mauser broomhandle and its copycats) that were capable of full automatic fire. The second, starting in Germany, was the first submachine guns using stampings, which made them both lighter and cheaper to manufacture.

WWII and the 1950's saw the widespread manufacture and adoption of these second generation cheap and light submachine guns, such as the Sten and the Sterling by the British Commonwealth countries, the MP 40 in Germany, the PPS 43 in the Soviet Union and its allies, and the U.S. M-3 "grease gun." The pinnacle of this generation of submachine guns was probably the Uzi, which was the first such design in the West to incorporate and use a "wrap-around" bolt design making the weapons smaller and shorter. Similar to the first generation of weapons, these military weapons continued to use an open-bolt design.

But WWII also saw the development of the assault rifle shooting an intermediate power cartridge (the German Stg 44 and AK-47, although I also consider the U.S. M-1 Carbine to be of the same category), seemingly eliminating the need for submachine guns (although is notable that the Soviet Union and Russia continued continued to develop and use submachine guns). And this is where Alex C.'s argument stops. He doesn't see anything the large first and second generation submachine guns can do that an assault rifle can't do better.

But in the meantime, something else was happening with the submachine gun. First, in Europe and other countries, particularly as its size diminished, the submachine gun began to be adopted as a police weapon. Second, additional machine pistols (such as the VZ 61 Scorpion  the Mini- and Micro-Uzi, and Mac 10 and 11) were invented and manufactured. Today, the Glock 18 and the HK VP 70 offer automatic fire from a package that is the same size and configuration as a typical combat pistol.

Another important development occurred. That was the introduction of the HK MP 5, which fired from a closed bolt. Firing from a closed bolt, like a conventional rifle or handgun, increased the accuracy. Since the police (at least theoretically) would not be laying down as large of volumes of fire as soldiers, "cook offs" were not a problem. The MP 5 and its variants became immensely popular with police special tactics units, and military hostage rescue and special forces. The MP 5 and similarly small sized, closed-bolt submachine guns and machine pistols are what I refer to as third generation.

(We are probably now entering a fourth generation--the Personal Defense Weapon (PDW)--falling somewhere between a submachine gun and an assault rifle).

So, we have now arrived at a weapon that, without a stock, is the same size or slightly larger than a full-sized handgun, yet capable of at least firing bursts of automatic fire--but is still smaller than even the short-barreled assault rifles such as the Russian AK-74U or U.S. M-4 carbines.

What to do with such a weapon? Timothy J. Mullin, in his book, The Fighting Submachine Gun, Machine Pistol, and Shotgun, makes the following observations as to the use of the machine pistol:

The key to effectively using the machine pistol is to first understand what it is. This means you understand how it is to be used tactically. Failure to understand this will result in the weapon's being misused and the shooter's losing a very valuable tool. The machine pistol should be viewed as a small hand-held shotgun firing projectiles that are more deadly than any found in a shotgun because of their weight and caliber. It is designed to allow the shooter to saturate a target with missiles at close range in a very short period of time, much like a sawed off shotgun. As with the shotgun, the projectiles are scattered over the target area, thereby improving the chances of hitting a major organ as well as inflicting the maximum amount of shock because a large number of wounds are being inflicted almost at the same time. Viewed as a hand-held, concealable, sawed-off shotgun, the machine pistol becomes the most deadly hand-held weapon available at close ranges (under 20-feet), if used correctly. Unlike the sawed-off 12-gauge shotgun, it can be fired a number of times in 3- to 5- round bursts, its projectiles are bigger with a greater ballistic coefficient than the shotgun cartridge contains, and it can be reloaded more rapidly. Additionally, if a more distinct target is present, it allows long-range, pinpoint accuracy. For example, I can hit a man target at 200 yards with a Glock M18 on semiautomatic--try that with your sawed-off 12-gauge loaded with heavy shot!

(p. 12). The same holds true for the modern submachine gun, except that the ability to deliver accurate fire at longer distances is increased because of the ability to add a stock or use a sling.

In short, if you focus only on military uses, Alex C. is probably correct. But the modern submachine gun represents an ideal home- or personal-defense weapon. In defending your home, whether now or after a hypothetical SHTF event, you are most likely to do so inside the home, or the immediate vicinity of the home (such as if you have a ranch or farm or other large rural property), and would probably not need the greater range of a rifle. The submachine gun would fulfill the same role as a tactical shotgun, except providing more effective fire in a smaller, lighter, lower-recoil package. And, for the ranges we are interested in, it provides many of the same advantages as a tactical rifle would, but, again, in a smaller, lighter package.

In reality, the question is, but for restrictive gun laws, whether the shotgun would be obsolete as a defensive or military weapon?

New Bird Flu Strain

The latest strain of bird flu to cross over to infecting humans is the H7N9 strain, which has caused three infections and two deaths in China. However, while adapting to mammals, it does not appear to have the ability for direct human-to-human infection, limiting its ability to spread.

Comparing the AK, AR, and Mini-14

Better weather brought more enthusiasm from friends and family for an afternoon of target shooting at a nearby gun range. It also gave me an opportunity to shoot different rifles than I would normally have access to, and thus get a better comparison of their handling characteristics. The rifles I got to try out were a new Bushmaster MOE in 5.56 NATO, a semi-auto civilian version of the AKM with synthetic stock, and an older model (i.e., pre-1990) of the Mini-14 with a traditional wood stock.

I won't try and compare accuracy because we were forced to use a short-range lane (less than 40 yards), and the Bushmaster was outfitted with a Nikon 556 scope, the AKM with a reflex sight, and the Mini-14 was using only its iron sights. I would note as a general matter, however, that the standard iron sights for an AR are generally much better than the sights on the AK series of rifles or the older Mini-14 sights. That said, it is possible to obtain upgraded sights for the AK and Mini-14.

For overall ergonomics, I think that it was a wash between the rifles, with each presenting its own pluses and minuses. The AR and AK were both front heavy. I admit that part of this with the AR was due to the scope, but I feel that issue was offset by the vertical foregrip. The fact is that the Mini-14 seemed to balance better, and come more easily to the shoulder than the other two rifles.

Although I don't mind the traditional stock found on the Mini-14, I generally give a slight edge on ergonomics to rifles outfitted with a pistol grip. Between the AK and the AR, the AR has the more comfortable pistol grip. However, this seems in my mind to be a function of the size of the pistol grip. The AR has a fuller grip than the standard issue AK. However, if I were wearing heavy gloves or mittens a lot, I would probably opt for the smaller grip on the AK. Also, switching out the pistol grip on an AK is easy.

The Mini-14 has an exposed bolt, whereas the AK and AR both have enclosed bolts and dust covers (the AK's safety lever, in the safe position, acts as a dust cover). This means that the AK and AR are less likely to have dirt and other muck get into the action. On the other hand, whereas the AK and AR eject to the right, the Mini-14 ejects up and forward, making it more comfortable for a left-handed shooter.

Because of the open top on the Mini-14, and the stamped sheet metal dust cover for the AK, neither rifle is particularly adapted to mounting an optical sight. Of course, an older model AR with an integral carrying handle is likewise not amenable to a scope. I know that there are options for adding optical sights to both the AK and the Mini-14, but none are as satisfactory as the fixed sighting rail on the upper receiver of the AR.

The Mini-14 was the hands-down winner when it came to safeties. Like the M-1 Garand and M-14 rifles, the Mini-14 uses a safety at the front of the trigger guard that can be pushed forward with your finger to disengage the safety. This makes it easily operated without having to move your shooting hand, and equally accessible for left- and right-handed shooters. The AR's safety is an easily accessible lever on the left-side of the receiver that is operated by using your thumb. However, it is not as easy for the left-handed shooter to use. The AK has a very poor set up for operating the safety lever. While I admire the fact that it doubles as a dust cover, it is awkward to reach, and noisy.

The Mini-14 and AK both use a magazine locking system that requires you to insert the front of the magazine first, and then push the rear of the magazine up to lock it into place. The AR, on the other hand, has a magazine well that you simply push the magazine straight up into. While the AR is probably slightly faster to switch out magazines, I feel that the mechanisms on the AK and Mini-14 rifles are more solid and robust.

Another factor allowing someone to more quickly change magazines in an AR and get back to shooting is the bolt release button on the left side of the receiver. Both the Mini-14 and AR lock the bolt back when the magazine is empty, which makes reloading easier. With the AR, you simply slap the release button on the side of the rifle to free the bolt to chamber the next round. With the Mini-14, you only have to slightly pull back on the cocking handle to release the bolt. The AK lacks a bolt hold-open, so you have to fully pull the cocking handle back after inserting a new magazine. While the arrangement on the Mini-14 and AK wouldn't be significantly slower if the bolt handle was on the left side of the rifle, because it is on the right side, you have to use your shooting hand, which means you lose your shooting grip and position. Thus, the AR is, overall, quicker and easier for fast reloads.

I don't really like the cocking handle on the AR. The T-handle is interesting, but I don't know if adds much to the usability, while the mechanism is definitely more fragile than those of the Mini-14 and AK. I could kick the bolt open (or closed) on a Mini-14 or AK. You wouldn't dare on the AR.

When it comes to accessorizing, the AR wins by a huge margin. It easier to customize the AR and attach accessories because of the layout and modularity of the system. There are plenty of aftermarket accessories for the AK as well. The Mini-14 runs a distant third. The pricing of magazines is similar. Absent market shocks, like those of the recent few months, magazines for the AR and AK are generally readily available at reasonable prices. Mini-14 factory magazines, however, (the only reliable types) are expensive and harder to locate.

As I stated above, each of the rifles has its pluses and minuses. If you are looking for finesse and something to which you could attach a flashlight, laser, optic(s), etc., the AR is the clear choice. If you are more interested in weapon that is robust and durable, the AK and Mini-14 are probably the better choice. If usability by a left-handed person is an issue, the Mini-14 is probably the superior platform, although there are many "ambidextrous" modifications that can be made to the AR.

What Are They Thinking?

I just saw on Drudge the link for this story from the Washington Free Beacon that China has mobilized troops near the Korean peninsula. From the story:

China has placed military forces on heightened alert in the northeastern part of the country as tensions mount on the Korean peninsula following recent threats by Pyongyang to attack, U.S. officials said.
Reports from the region reveal the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently increased its military posture in response to the heightened tensions, specifically North Korea’s declaration of a “state of war” and threats to conduct missile attacks against the United States and South Korea.
According to the officials, the PLA has stepped up military mobilization in the border region with North Korea since mid-March, including troop movements and warplane activity.
China’s navy also conducted live-firing naval drills by warships in the Yellow Sea that were set to end Monday near the Korean peninsula, in apparent support of North Korea, which was angered by ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills that are set to continue throughout April.

Is China stuck in 1950? There is a truism that armies always prepare to fight the last war. For China, the last major conflict they were involved in was the Korean War, and it sounds like they are planning in fighting it again. The question is why? What interests do they really have in supporting North Korea? I would suggest that they have no reason for supporting North Korea militarily. However, they have plenty of reason to fortify their border from a mass exodus of North Koreans should the North Korean regime collapse. They may also be beating their war drums to achieve some gain over the South China Sea should conflict break out.

China and Australia Dump U.S. Dollar for Trading

Following the recent announcement that Brazil and China would trade using their respective currencies instead of the U.S. dollar, Australia's announcement that it is following suit is yet another blow to the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency. In fact, we may see a preference cascade, with the concomitant drop in the value of the dollar.

It will be interesting to see how China is able to handle this, though. By moving away from using the dollar, and directly trading in the Yuan, the Chinese risk both a rise in the value of the Yuan, which will make Chinese goods more expensive and reduce exports, while presenting an opportunity for wealth to flow out of China more easily. If the Chinese discover that they can invest in something other than empty apartment buildings, the real estate bubble in China could quickly collapse.

Mexican Drug Cartels Expanding Operations in the U.S.

The Mexican drug cartels have historically stayed out of the U.S., content to capture the huge profits from production and shipping of Central and South American drugs into the United States, rather than attempt to control the distribution and selling in the United States. However, over the past several years, the cartels have become more involved in drug sales in Mexico, so it is probably natural that they would eventually seek to do the same in the United States. From the New York Post:

Mexican drug cartels whose operatives once rarely ventured beyond the US border are dispatching some of their most trusted agents to live and work deep inside the United States — an emboldened presence that experts believe is meant to tighten their grip on the world's most lucrative narcotics market and maximize profits.

If left unchecked, authorities say, the cartels' move into the American interior could render the syndicates harder than ever to dislodge and pave the way for them to expand into other criminal enterprises such as prostitution, kidnapping-and-extortion rackets and money laundering.
... But a wide-ranging Associated Press review of federal court cases and government drug-enforcement data, plus interviews with many top law enforcement officials, indicate the groups have begun deploying agents from their inner circles to the US Cartel operatives are suspected of running drug-distribution networks in at least nine non-border states, often in middle-class suburbs in the Midwest, South and Northeast.

"It's probably the most serious threat the United States has faced from organized crime," said Jack Riley, head of the Drug Enforcement Administration's Chicago office.

The cartel threat looms so large that one of Mexico's most notorious drug kingpins — a man who has never set foot in Chicago — was recently named the city's Public Enemy No. 1, the same notorious label once assigned to Al Capone.

The Chicago Crime Commission, a non-government agency that tracks crime trends in the region, said it considers Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman even more menacing than Capone because Guzman leads the deadly Sinaloa cartel, which supplies most of the narcotics sold in Chicago and in many cities across the US

Years ago, Mexico faced the same problem — of then-nascent cartels expanding their power — "and didn't nip the problem in the bud," said Jack Killorin, head of an anti-trafficking program in Atlanta for the Office of National Drug Control Policy. "And see where they are now."

Riley sounds a similar alarm: "People think, 'The border's 1,700 miles away. This isn't our problem.' Well, it is. These days, we operate as if Chicago is on the border."

Border states from Texas to California have long grappled with a cartel presence. But cases involving cartel members have now emerged in the suburbs of Chicago and Atlanta, as well as Columbus, Ohio, Louisville, Ky., and rural North Carolina. Suspects have also surfaced in Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

 This is very disturbing because Mexican drug cartels play hard ball. They don't just kill rival gang members, as is generally the case with U.S. gangs, but also terrorize the police, politicians and the public. They routinely engage in mass shootings and killings to which events like Aurora, CO and Newton pale in comparison.