Which Winter Will You Get?

MSNBC is reporting today that Scandinavia is looking at one of its warmest winters ever. "According to Sweden's meteorological office SMHI, the average temperature measured for November so far is 12.6 degrees Fahrenheit (7 degrees Celsius) above average" This has resulted in problems hosting winter sporting events, and late blooming of roses. Notwithstanding the scaremongering, last November was unusually warm in Europe also, but the winter later turned into one of the coldest on record. The Telegraph (a British paper) noted in January of this year:

The cold weather comes despite the Met Office’s long range forecast, published, in October, of a mild winter. That followed its earlier inaccurate prediction of a “barbecue summer”, which then saw heavy rainfall and the wettest July for almost 100 years.

(See also a history of British winters since 1616).

In any event, the opposite is occurring for most of the United States. NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, the summers are cooler, and winters are getting colder. I think we can all remember the record early snowfalls along the Atlantic Coast this year.

Also, the science is apparently not settled on how much CO2 impacts atmospheric temperature.

The climate may be less sensitive to carbon dioxide than we thought – and temperature rises this century could be smaller than expected. That's the surprise result of a new analysis of the last ice age.