Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Turkey May Support a "Buffer Zone" in Syria

Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, gave voice to contingency plans long thought to be under discussion in Ankara, but went further in adding that international action might be required.

"If the oppression continues, Turkey is ready for any scenario," he said in an interview on local television. "We hope that a military intervention will never be necessary. The Syrian regime has to find a way of making peace with its own people.

"If tens, hundreds of thousands of people start advancing towards the Iraq, Lebanon, Turkey borders, not only Turkey but the international community may be required to take some steps such as a buffer zone. We don't want that to happen but we must consider and work on that scenario."
 While Turkey may cast this as an altruistic measure, such a zone would benefit Turkey in two ways: control of refugees before they enter Turkey (as Lebanon showed by accepting Palestinian refugees, admission of a large number of refugees can lead to a de facto loss of territory and political destabilization--no society can survive an invasion of permanent settlers of sufficient magnitude, even if the invasion is voluntary on the part of both sides); and a foot-hold inside Syria.

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