China to Keep Digging Its Demographic Hole

The Financial Times has an article about the impact of China's "one child" policy. From the article:

China first introduced measures to limit the size of the population in 1971, encouraging couples to have fewer children. The one-child rule, with exceptions for ethnic minorities and some rural families, was implemented at the end of the decade.

Since 1971, doctors have performed 336m abortions and 196m sterilisations, the data reveal. They have also inserted 403m intrauterine devices, a normal birth control procedure in the west but one that local officials often force on women in China.

... The Chinese government has previously estimated that without restrictions, the country’s 1.3bn population would be 30 per cent larger.

... As China’s working-age population begins to decline, economists have warned that the family planning rules will pose an increasing drag on economic growth. China’s dependency ratio – which compares the potential workforce with the number of children and retirees – rose last year for the first time in 40 years.

“This makes China’s population look more like a developed country than a developing one, which is a key disadvantage in labour-intensive industries,” said Ken Peng, an economist with BNP Paribas who analysed the health ministry data.

The birth restrictions have also led to a severe gender imbalance because of a traditional preference for male children and the selective abortion of female foetuses. There are now 34m more men than women in China.

... The calls for relaxation [of the policy] are also meeting resistance.

After supervision of the one-child policy was given to the health ministry, the deputy head of the family planning unit rounded on critics of his department’s work. “The idea of easing the ageing problem by increasing the fertility rate is like drinking poison to quench thirst,” Yang Yuxue said.

China's rise has been spectacular. Its collapse will be equally spectacular.