The WSJ Reviews "The Second Nuclear Age"

The end of the Cold War brought with it a sense that the threat of nuclear war had also ended. A laudable hope, but unfortunately not true. In fact, the Wall Street Journal review of "The Second Nuclear Age" makes clear that the threat of nuclear war--somewhere in the world--may actually be increasing. The relevant portion:

The author presents detailed case studies on East Asia, South Asia and the Middle East to bolster his argument that the multipolar nuclear world is already changing the military strategies of regional powers in significant ways and to show that American national strategy—still focused on nonproliferation and lacking an understanding of the new nuclear dynamics—is lagging behind.

His analysis of the role of nuclear weapons in the India-Pakistan rivalry is disturbing and illuminating. The two sides haven't used their weapons, but their arsenals have changed their military and political strategies in ways that make the region more explosive and crisis prone. Pakistan, unable to compete in conventional weapons with its larger and wealthier neighbor, is expanding the quantity, upgrading the quality and diversifying the designs of its arsenal. India, meanwhile, is investing heavily in capabilities that would allow it to spot Pakistani preparations for a nuclear strike, possibly to pre-empt with force.

. . . The author's own sense of the dynamics of a multipolar nuclear world is sometimes less than complete. He tries, for example, to analyze the impact of a nuclear Iran on the Middle East by confining his analysis to Israel, the United States and Iran. Missing are the inevitable and serious effects as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and other regional powers respond to the new situation.

Even so, Mr. Bracken's view is a powerful one. It holds little comfort for theorists of international relations, whatever their orientation. Liberals will be appalled by his picture of a future in which widespread nuclear weapons impede the growth of the law-based order they seek. Nuclear weapons embody traditional ideas of state sovereignty; a world in which they drive strategic decisions and political arrangements is one that won't be guided by international law and organized by liberal institutions. If you have a nuclear weapon, the United Nations and the International Criminal Court can't make you do anything you really don't want to do.