Friday, November 23, 2012

Gaza Strikes a Precursor for a Strike Against Iran? (Updated)

Jennifer Griffin, at Fox News, speculates on why Israel decided to strike at Hamas. She notes:
The conventional wisdom has long been that Iran, if attacked by Israel, would strike back using proxy forces such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, terror groups the Iranians have been arming with longer and longer missiles in recent years.
Those missiles, which include Fajr 5 rockets with a range of 45 miles, can reach both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem from the Gaza Strip.
“Our problem is not our border with Gaza,” Israel’s Ambassador the United States Michael Oren told Fox News on Monday. “Among the rockets being fired at us are the Fajr 5 rockets, which come directly from Iran. We know that Hamas terrorists have trained with the Iranians -- there's a strong connection.”
. . . In March 2010, the Obama administration announced that it would provide $205 million to help Israel purchase up to 10 Iron Dome batteries. The House Armed Services Committee has authorized up to $680 million more to be spent on Iron Dome procurement for Israel over the next three years to protect Israeli cities.
Pentagon officials had hoped that the presence of a strong missile defense shield would give the Israelis some degree of security and deter the Israelis from striking Iran prematurely or unilaterally. Now it appears as if Israel is removing its most immediate rocket threat in the short term and testing Iran’s nearest proxy and regional alliances before deciding whether Iran’s nuclear program can be dealt a military blow.
In other words, the strikes against Gaza destroying Hamas' rockets and weapons, removes one of the deterrents to attacking Iran.

Update: From Business Insider:
Israel's eight-day Gaza offensive was a dry run for any future armed confrontation with Iran, U.S. and Israeli officials told The New York Times.

“In Operation Pillar of Defense, Israel was not confronting Gaza, but Iran,” Israeli ambassador to the U.S. States and military historian Michael B. Oren told the Times.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) employed F-16 fighter jets to drop bunker-busting bombs on underground tunnels as well as Apache helicopters and drones to hit more than 1,500 targets in Gaza.
The first strike of the conflict may have been Oct. 22 when fighter jets bombed an Iranian arms factory in Sudan. Israel has been mum about the strike, but everyone from Sudan to the U.N. believes four Israeli stealth jets targeted the factory because it was used to supply arms — including Fajr rockets like those fired at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem — to Hamas in Gaza.
Learning and reducing the capabilities of Iran's surrogates — Hamas and (especially) Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — is important to Israel because those groups would contribute to the 200,000 rockets and missiles that could strike Israel during any military confrontation with Iran.

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