Book Review -- Physics of the Future

Book: Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 by Michio Kaku (2011, 389 pages) (Amazon link here).

Overview: An overview of probable technological and scientific developments over the next 100 years, primarily focusing on those with commercial development and promise.

Impression: I read this book for two reasons. First, I enjoy reading about science and technology issues. Two, I have trying a few books from futurists to get a better idea of emerging or strengthening trends. I quickly realized after starting into this book that it was written for the popular culture, with little of no technical information. In that respect, it was no better than many of the articles you might find in Popular Science talking about how in 5 or 10 years we will all be using (or driving) "X" technology or products, except that it is in a book format, instead of scattered through numerous articles. However, having been written by a theoretical physicist, I had hoped it would have more substance.




Overall, the author paints a very rosy picture of the future, with full confidence that life will improve as a direct result of technology and science. The world he pictures has seen the triumph of Western tolerance and enlightenment, and therefore (like modern Europe and North America) enjoying peace and prosperity. The only negative seems to be the lingering effects of global warming (having caused coastal flooding). He is dismissive of the ability of any government to use technology to constrain the ambitions and hopes of the populous over the long term--i.e., "Big Brother" will not come about. He also does not see any significant advances in manned space flight.

Notable Points: Obviously, there is the issue of surveillance. The author believes (correctly) that technological development (especially continued decline in prices) will lead to the ability to monitor almost everything about everyone--sensors in clothing that monitor health and (because of GPS and communication technology) request assistance; sensors in your toilet and toothbrush to sample and test DNA and other body chemistry; MRI devices the size of a cell-phone; swarms of drones that can reinforce and multiply the power and ability to conduct surveillance. In the happy world the author envisions, this technology frees people from worries and ill health. However, mostly ignored by the author, is that under a tyrannical government, it would be a living hell.

Perhaps more significantly, the author points out the coming collapse of Moore's law. Moore's law (really, an observation) states that computing power doubles roughly every 18 months. Moore's law has held true for approximately 50 years. The author bluntly states: "Even Moore's law must end, and with it the spectacular rise of computer power that has fueled economic growth for the past half century." As he points out, the reason people buy new computers is this year's model is almost twice as powerful as last years model (and just as cheap, too). However, we will reach the physical limits of our technology for etching chips in about 2020, and shortly thereafter will reach a point where the quantum effects will prevent us from using smaller circuits. He explains:

One reason why Moore's law has relentlessly increased the power of chips is because UV light can be tuned so that its wavelength is smaller and smaller, making it possible to etch increasingly tiny transistors onto silicon wafers. Since UV light has a wavelength as small as 10 nanometers (a nanometer is a billionth of a meter), this means that the smallest transistor that you can etch is about thirty atoms across.

But this process cannot go on forever. At some point, it will be physically impossible to etch transistors in this way that are the size of atoms. You can even calculate roughly when Moore's law will finally collapse: when you finally hit transistors the size of individual atoms.

He further notes that once we reach a level of 5 atoms across, quantum effects take over, including the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. Even if alternative technologies are developed (something as different as tubes from integrated circuits), the author believes that the pace of the increase in computing power that we see know will significantly slow. Although massively parallel computing offers some hope, the author believes it is somewhat of a chimera because of hurdles in developing software. Thus, we may see an economic disruption beginning in 10 to 15 years due to end of Moore's law.