Thursday, July 29, 2021

VIDEO: "The Disaster Cycle Is Marching On"

 

VIDEO: "The Disaster Cycle Is Marching On"--Suspicious Observers (13 min.)

It's only been about 6 months since Suspicious Observes began shipping Ben Davidson's book on the disaster cycle. Yet even in that short time period, a considerable number of papers have been published that support his theory and continue to show that the cycle is progressing. He goes over the new research confirming his theory.

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

The Docent's Memo (7/28/2021)

VIDEO: "Manurhin MR73 - Double action secrets and a funky 9mm cylinder"--Bloke On The Range (24 min.). A look at some of the mechanical features that make this one of the best revolvers ever.

Firearms/Self-Defense:
  • "Mastering Grip: 5 Ways You’re Holding Your Gun Wrong"--U.S. Law Shield. The author of this article approached 5 well known firearm instructors to ask them what was the #1 problem they saw among their students when it came to gripping a firearm. Kippi Leatham's response was shooter's picking up the weapon a different way every time. As we all know, consistency is key to mastering a firearms. Leatham explains how to do it:

    My advice is to get the proper shooting grip immediately (if possible), whether picking the gun up off of a bench, drawing from a holster, taking it off of a display rack, etc. Every time I handle one of my pistols, whether I’m loading a mag, unloading the gun, drawing from a holster, just admiring it, etc., I use my strong-hand shooting grip —

    Trigger finger rests on the frame (below the slide), visibly above/outside of the trigger guard.

    Three remaining fingers are closed and touching under the trigger guard.

    Thumb webbing is centered on the back strap of the gun and positioned under the tang as high as possible.

    Thumb on the left side of the gun is touching the side of the frame.

    1. Get a firm grip. I think it was Massad Ayoob that said that you need to get a tight enough grip that your hand starts to shake slightly, and then back off just a bit. The main point to this is to make sure that the firearm is not going to shift in position as you fire it, and to force yourself into a consistent grip.
    2. Lock your wrist. Again, this helps with consistency, as well as preventing a failure to feed or extract due to "limp wrist".
    3. Position the gun in your hand so you can reach the trigger. Ideally you want a handgun that fits your hand, but if you are shooting a handgun slightly too big or too little, you may need to position it differently. The point is to be able to be able to at least touch the trigger with the first crease of the first joint of the trigger finger.
    4. Two hands are better than one. Two hands equals better stability--if you are using your second hand correctly. A tea-cup grip--where the off-hand essentially acts as a saucer for the gripping hand--is pretty much next to useless. Gripping the wrist of the primary hand is also not really beneficial. Ideally, you want the four fingers of the off hand to lie over the spaces where the three fingers of primary hand are gripping the handgun. Thus, the first finger of the off-hand is pushing up slightly into the trigger guard. I like the thumbs forward grip on a semi-auto pistol, and I like to keep a bit of pressure on the side of the gun with my off-hand thumb--it seems to steady it a bit.
    5. Keep the pressure on while pulling the trigger. This point is a warning not to increase or loosen your grip on the firearm as you pull the trigger, otherwise the whole purpose of Point #1 is defeated.
    6. Practice holding on tight. This serves two purposes. The most basic is to build your strength. The second is for you to learn an appropriate amount of grip: as noted above, just a hair below where your hand begins to shake.
  • "What Are the Effects of a Contact Shot for Personal Defense?" by George Harris, Shooting Illustrated. A reminder that if you are in an extreme close quarter (ECQ) and try to make a contact shot against an assailant, a semi-auto pistol may fail to fire if the muzzle is touching or shoved into the side of the target and pushed out of battery. He also discusses the effects on the person being shot at contact distance:
Without going into great detail, the gases from the propellant powering the projectile down the barrel require a degree of consideration in conjunction with the bullet’s penetration into the target. When the muzzle is in contact with the target as the gun fires, the bullet makes the initial penetration followed by a significant amount of high-pressure gases that create additional tissue damage. In some cases, depending on the cartridge fired in a contact wound, the gas-pressure damage to the target equals or exceeds that which was caused by the projectile itself. This is beneficial in stopping the unwanted action of the opponent in a gunfight.

  • "Common Issues When Swapping AR-15 Upper Receivers" by Steve Adelmann, Shooting Illustrated. The "small frame" AR-15 receivers generally fit together without issue, but the author discusses what to do if you happen to have an older Colt model with the larger front pivot pin, if there is too much play between the upper and lower receivers, and a warning that some trigger groups will not work well with PCC uppers. The AR-10 receivers are a different story because there is greater variance in designs--there is no mil-spec for the larger receivers. However, the author discusses the three main types out there and offers pointers for certain issues.

  • "Rifle Recoil--Is Anybody Honest About It?" by Dave Anderson, Guns Magazine. A discussion on how excessive recoil is a detriment to learning accurate rifle shooting, but too many shooters and hunters are under the misconception that they need more power! 


Prepping/Survival:
  • "Food Storage List For 1 Year"--Modern Survival Blog. The list is a modified one from the LDS Preparedness Manual, and represents a 1 year, bare minimum food storage for one adult male.
  • "Survival Vitamins and Supplements"--Modern Survival Blog. The reality is that it will be hard enough to create a long term storage plan that provides the calories you need, let alone one that will include all of the vitamins. This article discusses the vitamins you should include in your food storage program, starting, of course, with a good multi-vitamin from "well recognized brands, tailored separately towards men and women. And, the 'over 50' crowd…" (Ellipses in original). He also includes Vitamins C and D as additional necessary supplements. Finally, he discusses some other supplements you might want to consider.
  •  "What to do during a shelter-in-place order"--KHOU 11 (h/t KA9OFF). This article focuses on a shelter-in-place order issued after a chemical release or incident. The article relates:
When local leaders make that call [to issue an order], here’s what they want you to do:
  • Go inside
  • Shut and lock all doors and windows
  • Turn off your air conditioner or heater, as well as any fans
  • Close the fireplace damper
(Basically, you’re trying to keep that possibly dangerous air from coming in your house.)

    While you’re sheltering in place, don’t drink tap water. Keep an eye out for updates about the situation so you know when it’s safe to go outside or if things have escalated and you need to evacuate.
  • "Tips For Surviving Deadly Dust Storms" by Bob Rodgers, Preppers Will.  As the author discusses, dust storms primarily are dangerous to drivers because they can quickly and completely obscure vision. There is also the risk of respiratory issues or eye damage if you are caught outside during such an event--the author suggests that if you are in area prone to dust storms that you keep dust masks and goggles in your emergency kit. Back to the driving issue, the author discusses 6 tips for surviving a dust storm while driving, particularly on a highway. The tips are:
    1. Be aware of weather by listening to weather reports so you know if there is a possibility of a dust storm.
    2. Look for signs of an approaching dust storm and know what are those signs.
    3. Run to safety--i.e., try to outrun the storm by taking a different route.
    4. Slow down if you are overtaken by a dust storm since most accidents are due to vehicles driving too fast for the reduced visibility.
    5. Get off the road.
    6. Wait it out.
This advice is also good advice for white outs--like dust storms but with blowing snow.
    The misconception that collapse is an all or nothing phenomenon is common: Either the system rights itself with a bit of money-printing and rah-rah or it collapses into post-industrial ruin and gangs are battling over the last stash of canned beans.

    Neither scenario considers the fragility and resilience of the socio-economic system as a whole. It is both far more fragile than the believers in the permanence of the waste is growth model grasp and more resilient than the complete collapse prognosticators grasp.

    The recent relatively mild logjams in global supply chains of essentials are mere glimpses of precariously fragile delivery-supply systems. These can be understood as bottlenecks that only insiders see, or as unstable nodes through which all the economy’s connections run. Put another way, the economy’s as a network appears decentralized and robust, but this illusion vanishes when we consider how the entire economy rests on a few unstable nodes.

  • "Mailvox: tribalism wins"--Vox Popoli. A reader describes an incident while staying at a motel with a group of Mennonites. He went down to get his "all you can eat" breakfast and watched in amazement as the Mennonites deftly came in and took over the eating area, physically blocking access to food and tables, and monopolizing the waffle makers, leaving nary a crumb after they were done.
  • Two from Raconteur Report on caching and how to do it:

The latter article also contains links to a couple books on weapons caching.


VIDEO: "The War Over Critical Race Theory"--America Uncovered (16 min.)

The Collapse of Complex Societies:
    ... The data from Israel, the most vaxxed country on the planet, is proving these “vaccines” to be virtually worthless.

    Over 80% of new cases are among the vaxxed and the effectiveness of the vaccines are clocking in at 39%, just a smidge lower than the 95% from the doctored trials. ...

    In August 1996, the San Jose Mercury News initiated an extended series of articles linking the CIA’s “contra” army to the crack cocaine epidemic in Los Angeles. Based on a year-long investigation, reporter Gary Webb wrote that during the 1980s the CIA helped finance its covert war against Nicaragua’s leftist government through sales of cut-rate cocaine to South Central L.A. drug dealer, Ricky Ross. The series unleashed a storm of protest, spearheaded by black radio stations and the congressional Black Caucus, with demands for official inquiries. The Mercury News‘ Web page, with supporting documents and updates, received hundreds of thousands of “hits” a day.

    While much of the CIA-contra-drug story had been revealed years ago in the press and in congressional hearings, the Mercury News series added a crucial missing link: It followed the cocaine trail to Ross and black L.A. gangs who became street-level distributors of crack, a cheap and powerful form of cocaine. The CIA’s drug network, wrote Webb, “opened the first pipeline between Colombia’s cocaine cartels and the black neighborhoods of Los Angeles, a city now known as the ‘crack’ capital of the world.” Black gangs used their profits to buy automatic weapons, sometimes from one of the CIA-linked drug dealers.

    CIA Director John Deutch declared that he found “no connection whatsoever” between the CIA and cocaine traffickers. And major media–the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Washington Post–have run long pieces refuting the Mercury News series. They deny that Bay Area-based Nicaraguan drug dealers, Juan Norwin Meneses and Oscar Danilo Blandon, worked for the CIA or contributed “millions in drug profits” to the contras, as Webb contended. They also note that neither Ross nor the gangs were the first or sole distributors of crack in L.A. Webb, however, did not claim this. He wrote that the huge influx of cocaine happened to come at just the time that street-level drug dealers were figuring out how to make cocaine affordable by changing it into crack.

    Many in the media have also postulated that any drug-trafficking contras involved were “rogue” elements, not supported by the CIA. But these denials overlook much of the Mercury News‘ evidence of CIA complicity. For example:

  • CIA-supplied contra planes and pilots carried cocaine from Central America to U.S. airports and military bases. In 1985, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agent Celerino Castillo reported to his superiors that cocaine was being stored at the CIA’s contra-supply warehouse at Ilopango Air Force Base in El Salvador for shipment to the U.S. The DEA did nothing, and Castillo was gradually forced out of the agency.
  • When Danilo Blandón was finally arrested in 1986, he admitted to drug crimes that would have sent others away for life. The Justice Department, however, freed Blandón after only 28 months behind bars and then hired him as a full-time DEA informant, paying him more than $166,000. When Blandón testified in a 1996 trial against Ricky Ross, the Justice Department blocked any inquiry about Blandón’s connection to the CIA.
  • Although Norwin Meneses is listed in DEA computers as a major international drug smuggler implicated in 45 separate federal investigations since 1974, he lived conspicuously in California until 1989 and was never arrested in the U.S.
  • Senate investigators and agents from four organizations all complained that their contra-drug investigations “were hampered,” Webb wrote, “by the CIA or unnamed ‘national security’ interests.” In the 1984 “Frogman Case,” for instance, the U.S. Attorney in San Francisco returned $36,800 seized from a Nicaraguan drug dealer after two contra leaders sent letters to the court arguing that the cash was intended for the contras. Federal prosecutors ordered the letter and other case evidence sealed for “national security” reasons. When Senate investigators later asked the Justice Department to explain this unusual turn of events, they ran into a wall of secrecy.

The article then turns to a more general history of CIA drug trafficking up to and including its ties to drug trafficking out of Afghanistan in the 1980's and early 1990's. On the latter point, the article relates:

CIA-supported Moujahedeen rebels engaged heavily in drug trafficking while fighting the Soviet-supported government, which had plans to reform Afghan society. The Agency’s principal client was Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, one of the leading drug lords and the biggest heroin refiner, who was also the largest recipient of CIA military support. 

 But I found the following quote the most revealing of all: 

“In my 30­year history in the Drug Enforcement Administration and related agencies, the major targets of my investigations almost invariably turned out to be working for the CIA.” — Dennis Dayle, former chief of an elite DEA enforcement unit.

This electronic briefing book is compiled from declassified documents obtained by the National Security Archive, including the notebooks kept by NSC aide and Iran-contra figure Oliver North, electronic mail messages written by high-ranking Reagan administration officials, memos detailing the contra war effort, and FBI and DEA reports. The documents demonstrate official knowledge of drug operations, and collaboration with and protection of known drug traffickers. Court and hearing transcripts are also included.

    "You're always going to be having drug traffickers, gun runners, people who are alien smugglers ... as some of the kinds of people that you're going to be relying on to carry out a covert war," Winer observes. "And that's true of any government anywhere--whether you're talking Afghanistan, Colombia, Southeast Asia, Burma. Your operatives tend to be people who are involved in other illicit activities. These things tend to go together."

    If you put aside conspiracy theories of crack peddling, that still leaves the question of why the Agency has repeatedly found itself associated with drug traffickers.

    America’s Intelligence agencies are the deep state’s deepest part, and the most immediate threat to representative government. They are also not very good at what they are supposed to be doing. Protecting the Republic from them requires refocusing them on their proper jobs.

    Intelligence officials abuse their positions to discredit opposition to the Democratic Party, of which they are part. Complicit with the media, they leverage the public’s mistaken faith in their superior knowledge, competence, and patriotism to vilify their domestic enemies from behind secrecy’s shield.

    Pretenses of superior knowledge have always tempted the Administrative State’s officials to manipulate or override voters. Hence, as Justice Robert H. Jackson (who served as chief prosecutor of the Nuremberg trials) warned, they often turn their powers against whomever they dislike politically, socially, or personally and try to minimize the public’s access to the bases upon which they act.

    But only the Intelligence agencies have the power to do that while claiming that scrutiny of their pretenses endangers national security. They have succeeded in restricting information about their misdeeds by “classifying” them under the Espionage Act of 1921. Thus covered, they misrepresent their opinions as knowledge and their preferences as logic. Thus acting as irresponsible arbiters of truth at the highest levels of American public life, they are the foremost jaws of the ruling class vise that is squeezing self-rule out of America.
 

Miscellany:
  • "The Feminist Left Thinks The Best Thing It Can Do For Women Is Send Them To War" by Elle Reynolds, The Federalist. Reynolds' primary argument is this: "I’m sure, if you asked the women of America for a list of things that could make their lives better, being forced to sign up to go to war would not be high on the list." Well, I'm pretty sure that being forced to sign up to go to war isn't high on men's lists either, and yet men (myself included) have been required to register for selective service.
    I'll probably earn a lot of hate for this, but in my opinion, if women expect to exercise all the rights of men in a polity, they should also have to bear the same responsibilities, including the threat of military service. Yes, I'm well aware that the vast majority of young women are physically and emotionally unsuited for combat roles, but I don't believe the solution is to continue to let women be free-riders when it comes to national defense.
 
    I'm also aware that having women serve in the military violates historical moral tenets and biological imperatives that women be protected because of their roles as mothers and perpetuating the race. But women have largely rejected the role of motherhood, so the biological and moral argument for exempting them from service is increasingly moot.

  • A canary in the coal mine? "An Elegy for the Boy Scouts" by Mark Pulliam, Law & Liberty. The author notes that from 2019 to 2020 membership in the Boy Scouts of America (BSA) fell from 1.97 million Cub Scouts and Boy Scouts to 1.12 million and, "[t]o make matters worse, the Associated Press reports that BSA membership has fallen even further since 2020—to about 762,000." This is from a high of 6.5 million in 1972 (and, even in 1998, there were 4.8 million scouts). The BSA's biggest supporters were always religions, so it is no surprise that the decline began after former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, while serving as head of the BSA, opened enrollment to homosexual members, and was hurried to its doom when the BSA decided to allow homosexual leaders. Now the Scouts (as they call themselves now) are admitting girls in order to stem the hemorrhage. 
    Pulliam wonders if the decline is because scouting is passé, or because scouting became woke. He notes, in this regard, that Scouting had started to decline in popularity as far back as the early 1960s. The BSA's attempts to keep up with the times didn't seem to have ever worked. The wokeness seems to have simply been the final straw that broke the camel's back.  

    I think that the Scouts simply became irrelevant to most of its perspective audience. The heart of scouting was traditionally rural, so increased urbanization probably didn't help. As Pulliam notes, increased immigration and diversity probably caused the Scouts to fall victim to the "bowling alone" problem associated with reduced social capital. I suspect that stagnating wages beginning in the 1970s probably played a role; for instance, I dropped out over concerns of how much it was costing my parents for membership dues, paying for the awards, uniforms, costs to attend camps, etc. Increased competition for both the boys' and the leaders' time also made a difference.  And the obsession with achieving Eagle Scout by 14 or 15 also took its toll--scouting ceased to be about a bunch of boys getting together for a good time and increasingly was just another box to be checked off in puffing up a college application.

  • "Jeff Bezos offers Nasa $2bn in exchange for moon mission contract"--The Guardian. As you know, NASA had awarded its moon rocket contract to Space X. This made Bezos butt-hurt, even though at that time his company hadn't even gotten any sort of capsule into space while Space X had started to regularly do so. So, after making a frivolous complaint to force NASA to reconsider its decision--which could still go to Space X--Bezos is attempting to sweeten the deal "by waiving all payments in the current and next two government fiscal years up to $2bn to get the program back on track," as well as pay for an orbital mission to vet its technology. In other words, Bezos is offering to not charge NASA for the costs it would incur for Bezos's company, Blue Origin, to catch up to where Space X is now. How considerate of him.
  • A little crime history: "The ballad of the Chowchilla bus kidnapping"--Vox. From the article header: "In 1976, a school bus carrying 26 children and their driver disappeared from a small California town, capturing the world’s attention. Forty-five years later, we revisit the story." You might think that you recognize this plot from a Dirty Harry movie and you would be correct--that's what inspired the kidnappers.
  • "Critical Witchcraft Theory"--American Greatness. The author compares Critical Race Theory to the Salem Witch Trials and similar witch hysterias. An excerpt:
    Systemic racism, by contrast, serves perfectly well as a realistic description of some societies, such as the antebellum states in which slavery was permitted. But today’s theorists of antiracism are faced with the difficulty that real systemic racism has disappeared from America. Individual racists can be spotted, i.e. people who loathe or at least dislike other people on the basis of race and behave towards those people with prejudice. But “systemic racism,” involving the complicity of law, the approval of society, the power of economics, and the reinforcement of culture is just gone. It was officially undone generations ago and we have since vigorously cleaned out its vestiges.

    That leaves the proponents of systemic racism chasing after spectral evidence. They may not be able to see systemic racism with ordinary human eyes, but they “know” it is there and they have special magical eyes to see through its myriad disguises to the ugly truth beneath. William Stoughton and Cotton Mather would be proud of them. 

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Concealed Carry For The Rest Of Us

(Source)
       Most of you are probably familiar with the famous quote from Clint Smith: "Carrying a gun is not supposed to be comfortable; it’s supposed to be comforting." I generally have seen it quoted out of context, because Smith also added: "The gun that’s with you is better than the one that’s home in the safe."

      But there are a number of trainers, writers, and pundits that hold to the doctrine that no matter how uncomfortable or inconvenient, you should carry at least a mid-sized service handgun or something as close to it as possible (i.e., the Glock 19 or similar). "Dress around the gun," is also a common phrase to rebut those whose daily wardrobe doesn't include a jacket or untucked t-shirt. But this ignores Smith's other statement about having a gun with you.

     Ideally, everyone wishing to carry a concealed weapon would be able to carry a larger capacity handgun. (Heck, ideally, we could all carry a rifle). But that is not how the real world works. The fact of the matter is most people are not going to carry a weapon if it is uncomfortable and inconvenient because the perceived or actual risk is not that high. This is not to say that concealed carry license holders will not give up some comfort and convenience, but that it is unrealistic to expect the majority to readjust their lives around carrying a handgun. Especially those who do not live or work in high risk jobs or environments.

       Stephen A. Camp does a good job explaining this point in his article "Making the J-Frame .38 Snub Work." He writes:
Clint Smith is reputed to have said something to the effect, “Handguns are meant to be comforting, not comfortable”. I tend to agree if one is pretty sure of treading a hazardous path, leads a high-risk life-style, or works in a dangerous profession. Before retiring as a full-time peace officer, I seldom carried less than a 9mm or .45 automatic off duty. Were I in the jewelry business in Los Angeles or a bodyguard or something similar, I would not rely solely on a snub. More than likely I’ve served my last arrest or search warrant. I’ll not kick in any more doors or be sworn to confronting and arresting wanted felons known to be dangerous on sight. These days I’m around the house feeding ducks or goldfish, writing a bit, at the range, or hunting lease and that’s about it. ... [F]or most of my time I’m in a very, very low risk environment. True warriors will opine that one could be under deadly attack at any time and that is true, but we all play the odds to a degree. 
It is true that, in the United States, there are pockets of high crime; but for most of the country, violent crime rates are very low. The majority of us, like Camp, live in a "very, very low risk environment."

       The result is that most concealed gun carriers will necessarily gravitate toward carrying a firearm that the professionals would considered a "back-up gun" (BUG). In other words, notwithstanding the nomenclature, BUGs are probably the primary concealed carry firearm of most people who carry, not the compact semi-autos like the Glock 19 or 3-inch, steel framed .357 revolvers. And this is reflected in the market. It is why S&W's light-weight snub-nose revolvers are still one of their best sellers; it is why even Glock eventually surrendered and, kicking and screaming, came out with the Glock 42 and 43; and it is why other manufacturers have introduced a bevy of "micro-9's". 

       In other words, rather than carrying the biggest and the baddest handgun, focus on what you would realistically carry on a regular basis and be able to effectively operate.

     In a prior post, "Concealed Carry--No Elegant Solution," I described my journey as to selecting a concealed carry weapon, method of carry, and holster. I went through and tried a variety of firearms, including a variety of full-sized semi-autos, a 3-inch .357 Magnum, a .22 semi-auto "mouse gun," and a compact .380, before finally settling on a .38 snub-nose revolver. Since then, I've moved back to a .380 semi-auto, but I still often find myself slipping the .38 snubby into my pocket.

     While I wouldn't completely rule out heavier weapons, I suspect that for the majority of concealed carriers, an unloaded weight of 20 ounces, give or take an ounce or two, would represent the heaviest firearm they would tolerate for daily carry, and the majority would want a firearm with an unloaded weight of 16 ounces or less. For those wanting to carry in a pocket, whether trousers or an inside breast pocket, a weapon of 12 ounces or less (unloaded) would be best. 

    In this regard, the Glock 43 (9x19mm or 9 mm Parabellum) comes in at 16.2 ounces. The Glock 42 (.380 ACP or 9 mm Short) is 12.2 ounces, and would be more carry friendly for most people. Some other popular concealed carry handguns:
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list, but gives you an idea of what is out there from the better known brands.

Monday, July 26, 2021

Inconvenient Truths



IQ by Nation (Source)



A different compilation of National IQ's (Source)

The cultural war is currently focused on what is termed critical race theory (CRT). There is quite a bit of obfuscation of what is CRT and whether it is being taught in K-12. The basic premise of critical race theory, according to the magazine EdWeek, "race is a social construct, and that racism is not merely the product of individual bias or prejudice, but also something embedded in legal systems and policies." According to the article:

A good example is when, in the 1930s, government officials literally drew lines around areas deemed poor financial risks, often explicitly due to the racial composition of inhabitants. Banks subsequently refused to offer mortgages to Black people in those areas.

Of course, such practices have long been illegal. The Fair Housing Act (FHA), as well as a plethora of other anti-discrimination laws, regulations, and whole federal and state bureaucracies exist to prevent such practices. In fact, there is a whole industry of not-for-profit organizations that make their money by constantly trying to find businesses that violate anti-discrimination laws--even tricking them into technical violations--and sue them. Discrimination has become the exception, not the rule.

    But that is where CRT interjects itself. It is not enough, per CRT, to stop acts of discrimination. Rather, the EdWeek article explains, "CRT puts an emphasis on outcomes, not merely on individuals’ own beliefs, and it calls on these outcomes to be examined and rectified." The article also helpfully observes that "Critical race theory emerged out of postmodernist thought, which tends to be skeptical of the idea of universal values, objective knowledge, individual merit, Enlightenment rationalism, and liberalism—tenets that conservatives tend to hold dear." 

    The confusion over whether it is being taught in schools, the article continues, is that critics confuse CRT with "culturally relevant teaching." 

Critical race theory is not a synonym for culturally relevant teaching, which emerged in the 1990s. This teaching approach seeks to affirm students’ ethnic and racial backgrounds and is intellectually rigorous. But it’s related in that one of its aims is to help students identify and critique the causes of social inequality in their own lives.

And by inequality, they mean an unequal outcome (see the discussion on CRT above).  And, per CRT, if there is an unequal outcome, why is that? Because of invisible biases that exist in the system, or in the people. Thus the reason we hear from many intellectuals that whites are inherently racist, inherently oppressors, and blacks are the victims, and that it is not enough to simply not be racist, but that we must be anti-racist: tearing down the supposedly racist systems, beliefs, organizations, etc., that supposedly hold back blacks. 

    The public face of antiracism is Ibram X. Kendi. In a recent NPR piece about Kendi, it related Kendi's dismay on the push back against CRT or culturally relevant teaching, or whatever you want to call it.

"It's been tragic for me to watch," Kendi says. "Because we unfortunately live in a society where there's racial inequity, and our kids are trying to figure out why. They see, you know, let's say darker people who are more likely to be homeless or incarcerated or impoverished, and they're trying to figure out why is that the case? And if we're not actively teaching them it's because of racism, then what are they going to conclude?"

Well, they might conclude that there are other factors at play. Factors which can't be changed by throwing more money at "anti-racist" programs and institutions (and enriching people like Kendi). 

    And it certainly won't help to continue with lies. And that is what Kendi and others are doing--lying. That is the real reason that CRT rejects reason, objective knowledge, and universal truths. And there is a lot of information on why, to quote Kendi, "darker people ... are more likely to be homeless or incarcerated or impoverished."

    Let's start with intelligence. IQ Research has compiled IQ scores from around the world, and even a cursory look at those statistics shows that average or mean IQ's in Sub-Saharan Africa (and certain of the black Caribbean nations) are significantly lower than many other areas of the world, especially Europe and North-East Asia. (Of course, the "mean" or "average" is just that, and doesn't necessarily describe the individual with whom you may be dealing or interacting--in fact, it is dangerous and a mistake to assume that an individual matches the "average" or "mean" for the aggregate as, by definition, 1/2 of the group will be above that number, and 1/2 below).

     What we see are that almost all Sub-Saharan nations have populations where the mean IQ is 70, and a considerable number have mean IQs that 65 or lower. James Thompson discussed last year a comprehensive study into IQ in Nigeria that showed a mean IQ of 70. Turning to an individual country, the United States of America, we see a similar divide, although not quite as dramatic. "When IQ is scaled so that the white mean is 100 and the [standard deviation] is 15, the black mean is about 85 and the black SD slightly less than 15." [1] "Currently, the 1.1 standard deviation difference in average IQ between Blacks and Whites in the United States is not in itself a matter of empirical dispute." [2]

      Under a normal distribution curve, 68% of the population will fall within 1 SD above or below the mean--that is, 34.1% fall within the first SD below the mean. In addition, 13.6% of the population will fall within the second SD below the mean. For American blacks, that means that 34.1% will have an IQ between just over 70 to 85. 13.6% will have an IQ of about 55 to 70.
"So what does it mean to have a score 70 or below? In the past, an IQ score below 70 was considered a benchmark for mental retardation, an intellectual disability characterized by significant cognitive impairments.
Even today, according to the same source, an IQ of 70-79 represents borderline mental disability, while an IQ 55-69 is considered a mild mental disability.

      A common refrain is that IQ is somehow driven by environment. Unfortunately, its appearance seems to be due to "nature" rather than "nurture." For instance, IQ Research claims that the differences in IQ are because of wealth: that is, greater wealth results in a higher IQ. However, the gap in intelligence has persisted for a long time. "This difference was first observed among Army recruits during World War I, and has remained fairly constant." [3] And while I don't want to be diverted into a side discussion on this issue, Michael Levin, in his book cited below, and the paper cited below by Rushton and Jensen, establish that not only do IQ and similar aptitude tests accurately measure cognitive ability, but research shows that IQ differences are inheritable rather than a product of the environment. Steven Pinker has also noted this in his book, The Better Angels of Our Nature. [4] In fact, the failure of many, many government programs, including Head Start, demonstrate that environment is of minimal and only temporary effect.

       Research also shows that low IQ corresponds to several negative social traits. There is a direct correlation between high IQ and altruism and honesty. [5] Intelligent is also positively correlated to self-control (high IQ people generally have greater self-control) [6], crime (low IQ people have a higher propensity to commit crimes) [7], and openness to new ideas [8]. Rushton and Jensen note that blacks exhibit more aggressiveness, impulsivity, and higher self-concept (pride) than whites or east Asians. [9]. They also that blacks report higher rates of sexual intercourse, and more permissive attitudes towards sex, than whites or east Asians. [10] This results in higher rates of sexually transmitted diseases, lower marital stability and lower law abidingness. [11].

      In Richard J. Herrnstein's and Charles Murray's book, The Bell Curve, the authors noted that low IQ correlated with poverty; dropping out of school; unemployment, idleness and injury; higher rates of divorce, lower marriage rates, and increased out-of-wedlock births; increased welfare dependency; low birth rates and poor parenting; less civility or interest in voting; and a higher risk of crime.

     In fact, it is a truism that blacks are involved in violent crime at rates far above that of whites or Asians. In April 2016, I cited to the then recently released "Color of Crime" report by Edwin S. Rubenstein which analyzed crime statistics in the United States based on race. Rubenstein offered a summary of his analysis which included the following points:
  • There are dramatic race differences in crime rates. Asians have the lowest rates, followed by whites, and then Hispanics. Blacks have notably high crime rates. This pattern holds true for virtually all crime categories and for virtually all age groups.
  • In 2013, a black was six times more likely than a non-black to commit murder, and 12 times more likely to murder someone of another race than to be murdered by someone of another race.
  • In 2013, of the approximately 660,000 crimes of interracial violence that involved blacks and whites, blacks were the perpetrators 85 percent of the time. This meant a black person was 27 times more likely to attack a white person than vice versa. A Hispanic was eight times more likely to attack a white person than vice versa.
  • In 2014 in New York City, a black was 31 times more likely than a white to be arrested for murder, and a Hispanic was 12.4 times more likely. For the crime of “shooting” — defined as firing a bullet that hits someone — a black was 98.4 times more likely than a white to be arrested, and a Hispanic was 23.6 times more likely.
  • If New York City were all white, the murder rate would drop by 91 percent, the robbery rate by 81 percent, and the shootings rate by 97 percent.
  • In an all-white Chicago, murder would decline 90 percent, rape by 81 percent, and robbery by 90 percent.
Paul Kersey also took a look at crime in America's largest cities and found the same dichotomy between black violence and that of other races. For instance, he notes in relation to New York City:
Despite being only about 22 percent of the city’s population, the report found blacks comprised a majority—52.4 percent—of murder and non-negligent manslaughter arrests. Hispanics also exceeded their population share, accounting for 35.9 percent of arrests for these crimes. Despite being almost a third of the city’s population, white suspects accounted for less than seven percent of the share. The report noted the arrest population for these offenses “is similarly distributed.”
Similarly, looking at 2015 report from Philadelphia that included information on the race of offenders on "cleared" murder cases for that year, Kersey noted:
From the 133 cases so designated, 105 offenders are identified in the report. Eighty-six (81.9 percent of the total) were black, 18 (17.1 percent) were white, and one (one percent) was Asian. Of this group of 105, ten were of “Hispanic ethnicity.” Given a choice between “black” and “white,” Hispanics are almost always classified as “white,” so possibly all ten of the Hispanic murderers were included in the “white” figure. If that’s the case, whites may comprise only 7.6 percent of identified homicide offenders. 
     Other proxies seem to also track. For instance, "The National Center for Health Statistics said that in 2015, 77.3 percent of non-immigrant black births were illegitimate." The incidence of sexually transmitted diseases is generally much higher among blacks than whites. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports, for instance, that although African Americans only make up 14% of the population in the United States, they account for 45% of the total HIV/AIDS cases (62% of infected women), 55.4% of cases of gonorrhea that were reported, the rate of chlamydia among black women was 5.7 times that of white women, the rate of chlamydia among black men was 7.3 times that of white men, the rate of syphilis for blacks, overall, was 5.4 times that of whites, and the rates of congenital syphilis (i.e., passed from the mother to her child in vitro) was 10.3 times higher than whites.

     Astute observers will note the similarity of many of these traits to that of an r-select population as described in biology and evolutionary psychology. And, in fact, Levin notes in his book:
        Speculation has long focused on the different pressures exerted by the African and Eurasian climates. Survival in the colder climates of Europe and Northern Asia requires technologies unnecessary in Africa: clothing has to be fabricated, fires sustained, food hunted and stored. These constraints favored the ability to plan, in turn entailing ingenuity and low time preferences. Planning is less adaptive in warmer climates where food is easier to get and spoils when stored. (Lynn 1987 speculates that tracking game in snow selected for spatial ability, at which Mongoloids excel.) Hunting also selects more strongly for cooperativeness and reciprocity than does individual gathering and harvesting. 
        Rushton (1988a, 1991d, 1995b) conjecturally organizes this differentiation around two reproductive strategies. Reproductive-rate, or “r,” strategists such as fish produce numerous offspring, few of whom survive. Across species, the r strategy associates with lower intelligence, greater investment in reproduction than in postnatal care, short gestation periods, an accelerated life history,opportunistic feeding, little interindividual cooperation, lax social structure, and boom or bust population cycles. Carrying-capacity, or “K,” strategists, typically large mammals, produce a few offspring in widely spaced litters and care for them long after birth. The K strategy associates with higher intelligence, regular feeding habits, pair-bonding, cooperation, complex social structure, and longevity. Rushton argues that the greater adaptiveness of the r-strategy in Africa made Negroids more r, which would explain the lower mean black levels of intelligence, self-restraint and social organization (as evidenced by failure to form stable political units beyond the tribe, or, in the United States, the gang), and a stronger black reproductive drive as measured by illegitimacy, age of menarche, age of first intercourse, age of first pregnancy, frequency of intercourse, and marital instability. An intriguing phenomenon resistant to environmental explanation emphasized by Rushton is the race difference in litter size: there are 4 pairs of dizygotic twins per 1000 births for Mongoloids, 8 per 1000 for Caucasoids, 16 per 1000 for Negroids. Black infant mortality remains twice that of whites even when social factors are controlled for (Schoendorf et al. 1992).56 An accelerated life cycle is suggested by the greater maturity of black babies when gestation period is controlled for, their greater developmental precocity, and the constancy of the race difference in life expectancy during the twentieth century. [12]
      Even factors that you might think are cultural may very well not be. I would note that a data analysis by OK Cupid of its user data "showed that most men on the site rated black women as less attractive than women of other races and ethnicities." Women also downgraded men that were black or Asian. And an AI algorithm also generally judged white women to be more attractive than darker skinned women. But it is not just a "white thing." Africans find lighter skin to be more attractiveAnd who can forget the kerfuffle in 2011 when Satoshi Kanazawa (who is Japanese) published an article claiming objective proof that black women are less attractive than white or Asian women with a lower score assigned to women that had more masculine features.

    This is not meant as a catalog of reasons to hate or persecute blacks, but to refute the notion that institutional racism is the reason for disparate outcomes for blacks versus whites (or other races).

Notes:
   
[1] Michael Levin, Why Race Matters, p. 34.

[2]  J. Philippe Rushton and Arthur R. Jensen, "Thirty Years of Research on Race Differences in Cognitive Ability, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law 2005, Vol. 11, No. 2, 235–294, at 236 (PDF available here). See also this summary.

[3]  Levin,  p. 34.

[4]  Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature, p. 652 ("General intelligence, moreover, is highly heritable, and mostly unaffected by the family environment (though it may be affected by the cultural environment). [Foot note omitted] We know this because measures of g in adults are strongly correlated in identical twins separated at birth and are not at all correlated in adopted siblings who have been raised in the same family.").

[5]  Levin, p. 54

[6]  Pinker, pp. 598 and 601.

[7]  Pinker, p. 601.

[8]  Pinker, p. 643.

[9]  Rushton, p. 265.

[10]  Id.

[11]  Id.

[12]  Levin, p. 135.

Friday, July 23, 2021

Review of the Olight Freyr Flashlight


Continuing my reviews of Olight flashlights I've purchased over the last year and a half or so, the next up is the light that I generally take with me on evening walks. This one is the Freyr tactical light. The light normally sells for $139.95, but at the time of this writing, Olight has a flash sale price of $111.96, which is probably pretty close to what I paid for mine. The light comes in what appears to be an orange color, or in black (which is what I bought). 

    This is a pretty large flashlight for modern LED flashlights, measuring just a tad over 5-1/4 inches long. The housing for the lamp and reflector is also quite broad for modern flashlights, being 1-1/2 inches in diameter. But, although it comes with a pocket clip (which I haven't used), it really isn't designed or intended as a pocket light. Rather, it is a flash light for outdoor use, whether for law enforcement, hunting, hiking, or anyone else that needs a powerful flashlight for outdoor use. 

    So, let's go over the specs. The maximum output of the flash light is a white light of 1,750 lumens with an advertised throw of 360 meters. As I've mentioned in relation to other lights, I found a tree that according to my laser range finder is just over 300 yards away. At night, I was able to easily illuminate that tree with this light on the bright setting, although the beam was not as tight as on my Odin weapon light. But I can tell you from experience that it lights up the neighborhood at the max setting the few times I've used it while walking. It is incredibly bright!

    Of course, being incredibly bright, you can't run it at that brightness for very long because of heat concerns. Although the aluminum body has sort of swirl shaped radiating fins around the base of the housing/bell for the lamp, it will only stay at the brightest setting for a couple of minutes, after which it will drop to 850 lumens for 150 minutes, and thence to 300 lumens for 28 minutes--or so Olight advertises. I haven't run it in the high mode for more than 10 or 15 seconds at a time because I haven't wanted to anger any neighbors. Did I say that it is bright?

    There are two lower white light settings you can select.: a more sedate 300 lumens at which the light can operate for 9.5 hours from a full battery charge according to Olight; and a moonlight setting of 5 lumens on which setting the light can run for 15 days from a full charge. The latter may be of particular interest to someone backpacking or hunting. 

    In addition, the light can be switched to different colors: red (30 lumens, 22 hour run time), green (60 lumens, 14 hour run time), or blue (25 lumen, 12 hour run time). Obviously, the different colors are good for signalling. Red is often used as a means of preserving night vision. And blue is often used to aid in following a blood trail. Finally, there is a strobe setting for the white light. 

    As far as other statistics and features, the light has a sensor on the front that will drop the lumen output from the high setting to a lower setting if you move it too close to an object. The light has an IPX8 water resistance rating, and can supposedly survive a drop from 1.5 meters. So, it is going to be a tough flashlight. 

    It comes with a holster/case that has a magnetically latching cover. The holster has a strap on the back that is MOLLE compatible or can be used as a belt loop. I've attached the holster to a carrier vest with MOLLE loops. There is also a D-ring for hanging the holster off something. Like many other of Olight's products, it uses an induction charging cord that attaches by magnets to the base of the flashlight. 

    And, one feature I found I really liked, is that it comes with a silicone cone that can be fitted over the bell housing and used for directing traffic, signaling, etc. The cone fits into the holster, and then the light can be slipped into the cone, tail first, allowing you to carry both in a compact package. Although the cone is intended for signaling, I've used the cone with the white light to get a "lamp" effect.

    Operation of the light is via two switches: a tail cap switch and a smaller side switch. If the tail cap switch is depressed half-way, it goes to the medium 300 lumen white light; all of the way, and it activates the max white light setting. Like other Olight products, if you quickly depress and release the switch, it will remain on; if you hold the switch momentarily, the light goes off as soon as you release the switch.

    The side switch is used for the other light functions. Pushing and releasing the switch will turn the light on to the last setting used. You can hold the switch down to change between red, blue, green, and moonlight settings. 

    I purchased the light for a couple of reasons. First was to use as a handheld tactical light in or around the home. The light, at least in the high setting, is too bright to use in the house, but is great for investigating noises in the yard. 

    The second reason was for outdoor activities. In fact, the inclusion of the blue light setting was a big selling point if I was hunting and wound up having to track a shot deer after dark. And, as I mentioned above, I like the fact that the light could potentially be used for over a week of constant use without charging. 

    And even though I didn't buy it for this reason, it has been excellent for use when walking at night. It comes with a signal cone attachment, as I mentioned earlier, and I like using the cone in combination with the red light when crossing streets at night because it is so highly visible. 

    So, in short, it is a tough light with a lot of features that should appeal to the outdoors enthusiast, law enforcement officer or security guard, or any other situation calling for signaling options and, if necessary, a high power light. 

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Secret Combinations: South Africa Edition

As you may know, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has referred to the riots that broke out in South Africa as a failed insurrection, and vowed to track down and punish the instigators. The riots and looting were apparently started by supporters of former President Zuma, who is currently awaiting trial on corruption charges. But is that all there is to it? According to Benjamin Fogel in his article "The insurrection in South Africa is about more than freeing Zuma" there is a lot more behind what is going on.

    He begins by observing some of the big clues that this was not simply a popular uprising. For instance:

  • The unrest began on Friday, July 9, when a heavily armed and masked gang hijacked trucks near the Mooi River Toll Plaza and used them to block the road before torching 25 vehicles. The toll gate is a key part of the country’s economy as it links the port of Durban, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa, to the country’s economic heartland of Gauteng. Following this attack, other groups used burning tyres and logs to block roads. In the days that followed, large numbers of people looted shopping centres across KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, before turning on other businesses.
  • At the same time as the mass looting was taking place, a well-organised and planned campaign of economic sabotage targeted the entire supply chain of KwaZulu-Natal along with key communications infrastructure, water facilities and other vital parts of the province’s economy. Medical clinics, mosques, schools and pharmacies were also targeted and, as a result of the unrest, the entire COVID-19 vaccination drive in Durban, a city of around four million, was suspended amid a devastating third wave.
  • According to reports from various municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, police in the province largely disappeared from the streets during the riots. Intelligence reports about possible attacks on malls or logistics centres were ignored. There are also credible accusations that senior KwaZulu-Natal ANC officials and public office holders were involved in planning and executing these attacks.
Fogel further explains:

This unrest has been unleashed by forces calling for the release of Zuma from prison. These forces are known as the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). The RET includes Zuma’s unruly children who have been calling for violence and agitating via social media; political entrepreneurs who sell their services and media profile; mafias, who see defending Zuma as a way of protecting themselves from prosecution; military veterans loyal to Zuma, a senior commander of the ANC armed wing during the anti-apartheid struggle; elements of the charismatic churches, which have been vocal in defending Zuma for years and have benefitted from his patronage networks; and Zulu nationalists, as Zuma was the first Zulu president and has mobilised support through ethno-nationalist appeals to the country’s Zulu population. Since 2008, this faction has threatened to make the country burn if Zuma is prosecuted for one of the many corruption charges that still hang over his head. In the run-up to his imprisonment, these forces rallied at his infamous Nkandla compound – the site of the defining scandal of his presidency after it was revealed taxpayers forked out some $20m for “security upgrades” there – and armed men threatened violence and civil war if Zuma was imprisoned.

And what I consider to be a key point:

The ANC government has admitted that this faction also includes rogue elements from the state intelligence services, which absconded with billions of rand and untold numbers of firearms during Zuma’s presidency.
 
    It is interesting to me how prominently intelligence services seem to pop up over and over again in the scandals revealed in the last 10 years. Remember Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer's comments in January 2017 that Pres. Trump was "really dumb" to take on the intelligence agencies, adding: "Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.” I suspect the intelligence services are playing king maker in more countries than just the United States.

    Fogel goes on to note that the RET (Radical Economic Transformation) faction are "those who wish to radically transform South Africa’s economy in favour of the Black majority." 

The irony is that the term “Radical Economic Transformation” was itself cooked up in the wake of the Nkandla scandal by the hired guns of British PR firm Bell Pottinger, founded by a Tory peer known as Margaret Thatcher’s favourite spin doctor. Bell Pottinger was employed by one of Zuma’s sons with Gupta money to clean up his father’s image. The firm, whose luminous clients included Augusto Pinochet, might be no more, but its campaign proved successful and RET is now an essential part of South Africa’s political lexicon.

The author describes the Gupta family as "a second-rate business clan from India who relocated to South Africa after the end of apartheid in pursuit of easier pickings."

With the help of Zuma and the sacks of cash handed out from “the Saxonwold Shebeen” – as the Guptas’ compound in Johannesburg is known – ministers were chosen, contracts were awarded, and economic policies decided based on what was best for the Guptas. According to some estimates, state capture cost the South African economy 60 billion pounds ($82.6bn).

He then explains how this qualifies as what I would term a Secret Combination:

    The RET faction is best understood as a network of loosely aligned groups ranging from factions of the ANC, opposition parties – including at times the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – criminal networks, media groups and influencers rather than a coherent movement. These groups coalesce to defend shared interests, in particular access to rents, securing illegal markets, like the illegal tobacco trade and the country’s booming extortion industry, and protection from criminal prosecution. They share a set of enemies from prying investigative journalists, the tax revenue collection service, prosecutors and the Ramaphosa faction of the ANC, as well as a rhetorical commitment to the articulation of a nation or social order based on Black majority control, particularly related to state-owned enterprises. Despite its alleged “radical” mask, RET essentially amounts to rhetoric to disguise a parasitic form of looting from state-owned enterprises and the call for more of the economy to be transferred into the hands of these criminal networks.

    In this case, the imprisonment of Zuma might be the hill this faction is willing to die on, as they know that his imprisonment opens the door to future prosecutions. It is their shared opposition to accountability and the need to hold elements of political power in order to maintain their rackets that unites these forces under the banner of “free Zuma”. They are likely attempting to extract concessions from the government that protects them from prosecution or being removed from public office.

 Also:

The closest analogy to the continuing unrest in South Africa can be found in the reaction of powerful, entrenched organised crime groups that are threatened by legal prosecution and a loss of political protection. The actors involved in instigating unrest are linked to organised crime and have used public office to build powerful patronage machines; factional politics in the ANC is a battle over resources and rackets rather than ideology in this sense, even if unlike the mafia RET still needs some popular support.

     Fogel believes that the attempt will backfire on the RET faction and its supporters, citing for example the backlash in Italy against the Cosa Nostra when it unleashed a targeted wave of car bombings and assassinations in the 1980s and 1990s to attempt the closure of prosecutions against leaders that had been arrested. Similarly, he notes the failure of Pablo Escobar and the Medellin Cartel in Columbia during the same time period who had pursued terrorism as a means of stopping his extradition to the United States.

There are some early signs that the RET overplayed its hand. The insurrection was geographically limited and has already sparked public fury; now the images on television screens are of communities repairing the damage, cleaning up the cities and rebuilding rather than fire, mass looting, and destruction. It is also possible that the unrest has in fact placed Ramaphosa in a stronger position to deal with his enemies, as he likely enjoys widespread public backing to crack down on those responsible. Furthermore, if he introduces the Basic Income Grant, which he has been hinting at over the last few days, this might go down as the defining moment of his presidency and secure him a second term.

     As I hinted above, we very well may face such a Secret Combination of similarly loosely aligned groups, including intelligence services, major wealthy families, Silicon Valley oligarchs, and probably certain large criminal enterprises. Right now they probably think they are safe having gotten Biden elected and sworn in as President. But there are election audits, as well as proposed audits and investigations being called for in several states. If this grows to be sufficient to threaten the replacement of Biden with Trump, this Combination may well again resort to riots and looting, or worse.

    Long ago, in the 1990s, I played a game called Primal Rage. The game was set in a post-apocalyptical Earth ("Urth") and the players controlled a giant dinosaur or some other huge monster that would battle head-to-head in different parts of Urth, including the ruins of an old human city. As an added touch, the game designers had tiny human figures that would sometimes dart out around the feet of the monsters. Right now, it seems to me that normal people are catching glimpses of titanic struggles between organizations that are much larger and more powerful than we can imagine. We are the tiny people dancing around the feet of monsters. It doesn't seem there is much we can do other than to avoid being stepped on.

Weekend Reading

 First up, although I'm several days late on this, Jon Low posted a new Defensive Pistolcraft newsletter on 12/15/2024 . He includes thi...