Thursday, February 18, 2016

The Clouds of War Are Gathering

Source: "‘Islamic Rape Of Europe’: Polish Magazine Splashes ‘White Europa’
 Girl Groped By Migrant Hands
For some reason, the magazine cover pictured above reminds me of Revelation 17:16 (KJV)--"And the ten horns which thou sawest upon the beast, these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire."

The migrant/refugee issues in Europe are going to force the dominance of K-strategy, but this may itself help bring about war. The Anonymous Conservative, in his article, "China Is Courting Apocalypse," writes (underline added):
What is astonishing to contemplate is that none of any of these problems is as large as what will happen when the US begins to have trouble selling its debt, because people begin to realize that the US will have gotten so in debt that it will not be able to pay back any more borrowed money. That will bring the real K-psychology into play. That is the one we read about in the history books, with US Marines flame-thrower-ing Japanese soldiers rather than taking prisoners, and nobody in the country being the least bit bothered.
    More and more, a Soviet-style, quiet dissolution of the federal government looks as if it could be the most likely possibility, and it could happen within two decades – and maybe a lot less. The real question is what will happen on the international stage as our entire species goes K in grand style, all at once. Looking at the scale of things, I begin to feel a bit worried.
      The K-shift produced by the resource restriction of the Depression probably played a large part in producing WWII, and this appears as if it could make the Great Depression look like a lost wallet. I used to hope r/K might be a good tool to temper r, and guide people away from rabbitism by making them see their decisions were not logical, and were just urges driven by the r-psychology of free resource availability.
        Looking out at this, and thinking of what could happen to all the K-strategist soldiers worldwide if another global war began in the massive drive to K after the real collapse, I find myself thinking perhaps it might have just as much utility explaining to the world that a World War might just be an over-expression of K driven by conditions. Perhaps it could illuminate that we might all be better off waiting a bit, and seeing if the decision to go to war was fully logical or necessary.
          Could the bonds of K-strategists, and their inherent respect for each other produce a Rodney King moment, driving us all to just get along? The way things look, we may one day find out.
          Speaking of the gathering clouds of war, in his article "Remain Overnight," Richard Fernandez writes (underline added):
            Plans appear to focus on the world after Obama. Resigned to the fact that migrant inflow cannot be stopped, European security forces are preparing to fight ISIS sleeper cells in the cities of the old continent. Saudi Arabia is hosting major maneuvers involving 20 Islamic countries on its northern border in anticipation of a regional Armageddon. A major South Korean politician has proposed acquiring nuclear weapons to defend itself from North Korea.
              Everyone is making shift for themselves because that is all that is possible.  But the most significant actions have been undertaken by the Pentagon itself. It has proposed the largest budget in years for the express purpose of rebuilding the deterrent force against Russia. The New York Times reported plans to "fortify" Eastern Europe. Real Clear Defense reports a crash program called the Third Offset Strategy to boost up the combat power of the US military in the short term. The current Defense Budget is a tacit mea admission of  a need to make up for ground squandered in the last 7 years.
                * * * 
                  But all these things must wait until after the current administration. After years of talking about a "world without nuclear weapons", legacies, grand bargains, rule based international systems, open borders and falling seas, the final act of the Obama administration has been to allow a budget aimed at belatedly giving America a fighting chance for survival, to at least let someone do what he could not do himself.
                    It seems clear there is widespread consensus there will be a major period of instability or conflict after Obama leaves office, perhaps even before he departs. Conflicts in Eastern Europe, Turkey, the Middle East, North Africa, China, etc. are not only possible, they have actually started and each is escalating.
                      What is still unclear is how bad it will get. That depends on two things: the extent to which Western defenses can be rebuilt and the judiciousness with which foreign and security policy leadership is exercised. Political events in 2016 are crucial not only in America, but all over the world because they will determine, more or less, who is in charge when the balloon goes up. If the West can prepare in time and uses its assets properly, the worst of the crisis can still be avoided and a general peace might still be preserved.  If nothing intelligent replaces the last seven years of foolishness then the embers now smoldering may burst into open flame, merge and threaten everybody with the major conflict Dmitry Medvedev warned against.
                        There will still be some calls in the next few months for president Obama to "do something" but there will be fewer than you would expect.  The word is out, even among allies.  He's a busted flush.  For the moment, the consensus appears to sit tight, get ready, take no chances and wait out Obama's term.
                        He also noted a couple days ago, in "Taking A Chance" that the world is entering a period where a new world order is being established:
                        The ruined cities of Homs or Aleppo may come to perfectly symbolize the current predicament, examples of once bustling places now without the wherewithal to rebuild yet with more than enough to destroy.  Like the militias in those agonized cities, the post WW2 Security Council members are no longer strong enough to pursue an independent strategy.  They will be forced into  a constantly shifting constellation of coalitions each competing and cooperating with the other to ensure survival and acquire gains.
                          Russia may pair off in its facile way with first one partner then another.  Turkey will play the same duplicitous game, only more duplicitously, as will China.  And Europe will do what is necessary to survive.  In both the international and domestic political spheres,  -- betrayal and counterbetrayal --  will become the rule rather than the exception.  And this will continue until a new order emerges.
                            We have lost faith in our institutions partially because we have destroyed them.  Like evil children, we put the match to it in a fit of moral signaling without knowing where we will spend the night.  But we also lost faith in them because they no longer served the purpose.  For good or ill, there's no going back.  To continue Roger Cohen's phrase, not only has the post-Cold War world ended but we are already in the early stages of what future historians will describe as the conflict to establish its successor.
                            To think what could have been if we had had real leaders, instead of frivolous children as our princes and unthinking babes to rule over us.

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