Peter Turchin's Predictions About The Ukraine War

 Vox Day has an interesting piece up entitled "Peter Turchin Kept the Receipts." Apparently early on, Turchin had made predictive models of the war based on predictions by Paul Krugman (who thought that Ukraine, with NATO backing, would win), Scott Ritter (who predicted a Russian win), and a compromise model he called the Attrition Warfare Model (AWM) that incorporated Krugman's and Ritter's models. The AWM appears the most correct since the model and current events in Ukraine show that Ukraine is having increasingly difficulty fielding enough forces. The AWM predicts that Ukraine's military will probably collapse before February 2027.

    And while we are on the topic of the Russo-Ukraine War, you should also check out "From the Front Lines of Ukraine: A Soldier’s Warning to America" by Suzanne Kelly at The Cipher's Brief which discusses the current state of the drone warfare in the conflict. Her basic warning is that the U.S. is woefully unprepared for the new battlefield dominated by drones. An excerpt:

The sum effect of the above factors is this: if a top-down solution in the West is to compete with either the past bottom up approach seen in Ukraine or the authoritarian top-down approach of Russia and China, there must be a massive acceleration of the military and industrial OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop with respect to tech employment (in terms of strategy, doctrine, TTPs, organizational structure, funding, and scaling). Our current decrepit institutions in the West cannot achieve this and require radical restructuring. Hopefully, this is self evident and I don’t need to launch into a monologue about the military industrial complex, our own American brand of corruption, our slow-moving congressional approvals process, our fascination with incredibly expensive flagship programs, etc.