More On Situation In Niger

 Yesterday I suggested that the Niger coup was part of a larger conflict between the U.S./NATO on one side and Russia on the other. Everything I continue to see suggests I'm correct:

    First up, from Newsweek: "Is Niger Coup a Proxy War Between Russia and the West? What We Know."

    Reports from Niger about citizens raising Russian flags and chanting "Wagner" have been circulating in the week since its President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown in a coup.

    These accounts are prompting questions about Moscow's relationship with the former French colony in West Africa—and what role the Wagner Group of mercenaries could play there.

    Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed the news that General Abdourahamane Tiani had taken power, describing it as a move against French "colonizers" and hinting in a Telegram voice message that his fighters might offer security services.

    There is no evidence the Kremlin had any involvement in the military overthrow and it has described the situation as "cause for serious concern," but the coup comes as anti-French sentiment is rising in a region pivoting towards Moscow.

Someone in Niger just doesn't wake up one day and decide "I'm going to burn some politician's homes, wave Russian flags, and chant 'Wagner'". This is something that is built up through careful preparation and propaganda.

    The article continues:

    Bazoum was overthrown on July 26 when members of his own guard detained him. Since he took office in 2021—in Niger's first democratic transition of power since independence from France in 1960—his government has been a target for militants linked to the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda.

    Under pressure from the Islamists, armies recently seized power in two of Niger's neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso. Both are former French colonies where anger at France has intensified. The junta in Mali welcomed Wagner, while Burkina Faso's military leadership has grown close to Russia and expelled hundreds of French forces.

    At stake in Niger are significant French and American military assets and a critical partner in the fight against militant Islamism and illegal migration to Europe.

    "Should the Niger crisis devolve into a military conflict, we could see the possibility of a proxy war," said Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at the security firm Global Guardian. However, he told Newsweek that he believes this scenario is unlikely at the moment.

    On Wednesday, European governments continued to evacuate their nationals from Niger. Defense chiefs from West Africa's regional political and security bloc are set to meet in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, to discuss the coup.

    "The tail-risk scenario could include France and the U.S. aiding an anti-coup coalition led by Nigeria and Chad and Wagner could help lead the Malian military into the fray," Faintuch said. "Should Niger invite the presence of Wagner, then only Chad would stand in the way of creating a [pro-Moscow] contiguous belt across Africa."

    However, Faintuch added that he thought Wagner would need a "political excuse" to move in Niger. This could include an intervention by Chad or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with low-key support from France. The ECOWAS has condemned the coup.

    The junta leaders splitting into factions or civil disobedience in support of Bazoum are also possible and Faintuch said these "could all provide sufficient cover for Prigozhin to deploy his men to Niger."

So, lots of reasons and situations where Wagner might directly intervene in Niger, including if ECOWAS attempts to intervene militarily to restore Niger's president to power.

    And that brings me to the news article, from the Daily Mail: "Fears for Americans trapped in Niger as State Department issues emergency evacuation of embassy for some staff after French embassy was torn apart by rioters: Africa country in meltdown as politicians stoned and cars torched amid brutal military coup." Besides the usual story of American citizens being left to fend for themselves while other countries use their militaries to evacuate their citizens, we have this:

    Niger's new military ruler lashed out at neighboring countries and the international community in a nationally televised speech on Wednesday night, calling on the population to be ready to defend the nation.

    In one of few addresses to the West African country since seizing power from Niger's democratically elected president a week ago, General Abdourahmane Tchiani warned against foreign meddling and military intervention against the coup.

    'We therefore call on the people of Niger as a whole and their unity to defeat all those who want to inflict unspeakable suffering on our hard-working populations and destabilize our country,' Tchiani said in the televised speech.

    Tchiani, who commands Niger's presidential guard, also promised to create the conditions for a peaceful transition to elections following his ouster of Bazoum.

    His speech comes amid rising regional tensions as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatens to use military force if Bazoum isn't released from house arrest and reinstated by Aug. 6. The bloc has imposed severe travel and economic sanctions.

    ECOWAS is a regional political and economic union of fifteen countries located in West Africa. 

    The coup has been strongly condemned by Western countries, many of which saw Niger as the last reliable partner for the West in efforts to battle jihadis linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in Africa's Sahel region. 

    Russia and Western countries have been vying for influence in the fight against extremism.

    France has 1,500 soldiers in Niger who conduct joint operations with its military, and the United States and other European countries have helped train the nation's troops.

    Tchiani said Niger is facing difficult times ahead and that the 'hostile and radical' attitudes of those who oppose his rule provide no added value. He called the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS illegal, unfair, inhuman and unprecedented.

Also:

    The sanctions announced by ECOWAS included halting energy transactions with Niger, which gets up to 90 percent of its power from neighboring Nigeria, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

    On Tuesday, power transmission from Nigeria to Niger was cut off, an official at one of Nigeria's main electricity companies said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

    The official did not clarify how much of Niger's power the cut represented, but any reduction would stress citizens in the already impoverished country of more than 25 million.

    A U.S. pullout would risk Washington's longstanding counter-terror investments in the West African country, including a major air base in Agadez that is key to efforts against armed extremists across the Sahara and Sahel. 

    The United States has roughly 1,000 military personnel in Niger and helps train some Nigerien forces.

    Leaving Niger would also risk yielding the country to the influence of Russia and its Wagner mercenary group, which already has a significant presence in Mali, Central African Republic and Sudan.