And Here We Go Again...

"Ousted Niger President Urges US Intervention Amid Fears Wagner Could Move In" reports Zero Hedge. From the article:

    On Thursday evening The Washington Post published an op-ed by the ousted president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, calling on the United States and the "entire international community" to intervene in order to restore him to power, and return the country to constitutional order.

    He also stated in the Washington Post that he was writing "as a hostage", at a moment unrest has persisted in the streets, following his overthrow by the military last Friday (and by his own presidential guard). 

    Earlier in the day the junta declared the formal withdrawal of Niger's ambassadors from France, the US, Nigeria and Togo. There are now growing fears of an alliance between Niger's military and Russia's Wagner Group, which has a significant presence across West Africa and elsewhere on the continent.

    The New York Times has speculated on this prospect, writing Wednesday:

A week after a military overthrow of Niger’s elected president, a coup leader and other officers flew to neighboring Mali on Wednesday to meet with its rulers, raising concerns that a key Western ally could grow closer to military leaders in Mali who partner with the Kremlin-backed Wagner private military company.

Gen. Salifou Modi, one of the putschists who removed President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger from power last week, was part of a delegation of military officials who visited Mali, according to a post on social media from the office of the president in Mali.

The Wagner group has about 1,500 troops in Mali, allied with the military regime there. Its founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, has praised the coup in Niger and offered Wagner’s services to the new rulers, though it is unclear what operational control he still has over the group after his failed mutiny in Russia in June.

Already the rhetoric of 'Russia being behind the coup' is growing, as a top Ukrainian official has already alleged this week. Is a Cold War 2.0 in Africa in the works?

The article has more details on events there, so be sure to read the whole thing. 

    Focusing on one particular issue, from Task & Purpose:  "The US can’t use its $110 million drone base in Niger." But I'm sure that Wagner will enjoy it. An excerpt:

    The U.S. military is unable to fly drones from a base in Niger because the country’s airspace has been closed after a coup overthrew the government in late July, a U.S. official said.

    Known as “Nigerien Air Base 201,” the installation cost $110 million to build and it features a 6,200-foot runway for MQ-9 Reapers as well as manned aircraft. The U.S. military began conducting drone flights from the base in November 2019.

    About 1,100 U.S. troops are currently deployed to Niger, according to the Defense Department. The country is an important partner in the U.S. military’s efforts to counter the Islamic State group and other terrorist organizations in Africa. In October 2017, four U.S. soldiers were killed near the Nigerien village of Tongo Tongo after being attacked by more than 100 ISIS fighters.

    Politico first reported that U.S. military drones were unable to fly from a base near Agadez, Niger, after the country’s armed forces ousted Niger’s president in a July 26 coup.

    The base serves as a critical intelligence and surveillance hub for the U.S. military’s efforts to combat violent extremism in North and West Africa, said Jocelyn Trainer, an expert on sub-Saharan Africa with the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington, D.C.

    “With a limited U.S. base presence in Africa – restricted to Djibouti and Niger – losing access to Base Aerienne 201[Niger Air Base 201] would be a detrimental blow to U.S. and African joint efforts to counter violent extremist groups connected to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda operating in the area,” Trainer told Task & Purpose. “This setback coincides with France diminishing its presence in the region. A reduced U.S. and French presence could create space for Wagner, or other actors, to fill a security vacuum.” 

    It is too early to determine how the closure of Niger’s airspace will affect U.S. military operations in Africa, a second U.S. official told Task & Purpose.

    In the short term, not being able to use of Nigerien Air Base 201 will limit the U.S. military’s visibility over the Sahel region of Africa where ISIS and al-Qaida’s branch in West Africa known as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, both have a strong presence, said Caleb Weiss, an expert on jihadism in Africa and the Middle East.

    “It definitely affects  their ability to support troops on the ground, whether that be Special Forces ODAs [Operational Detachment Alphas], or the French in Niger and certainly keeping tabs on JNIM and ISGS [the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara] throughout the entire Sahel,” said Weiss, a senior analyst with the Bridgeway Foundation, a nonprofit organization that seeks to end genocide. 

    Al-Qaeda and ISIS are “incredibly strong and growing stronger” in the Sahel, and both groups will be the main benefactors of the coup in Niger, Weiss told Task & Purpose.