David Strom Asks If Russia Is Losing Its War Against Ukraine

Writing at Hot Air, David Strom observes that with Ukraine suddenly being able to operate with fewer constraints placed on it by the United States, it is able to strike deeper into Russia and inflict more damage on critical infrastructure. He writes:

At the same time that Trump reduced American aid, he also allowed Ukraine to take the gloves off and to put Russian assets in Russia at risk, and the results are stunning. Not only have the tactical battle lines extended into Russia, making logistics infinitely harder, but Ukraine is now systematically dismantling key parts of Russia's economic engine and weapons production facilities. 

And he cites the following from a Reuters article:

    "Virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia ‌have been forced to halt or scale back fuel output following Ukrainian drone attacks in recent days, according to official data and sources.

    The combined capacity of refineries that have fully or partially halted operations exceeds 83 million metric ⁠tons per year, or around 238,000 tons per day. That accounts for around one quarter of Russia's total refining capacity, according to data and sources who spoke on condition of anonymity...

    One of Russia's largest refineries, Kirishi, with capacity of 20 million metric tons per year, has been fully shut since May 5, according to the ⁠sources."      

And, according to the Washington Post, "Russia’s losses from Ukrainian strikes have already exceeded $7 billion, while oil production has reportedly dropped by around 400,000 barrels per day."  So, even as oil prices have sky rocketed due to the conflict with Iran, Russia cannot take full advantage of price surge. Moreover, it places Russia in the position of increasingly becoming a vassal to China. 

    While this sounds good for Ukraine, unmentioned by Strom is the acute manpower shortage faced by Ukraine. For instance, in an article assessing Ukraine's opportunities and challenges in the next several months, Reuters reports:

    Assessing the military situation, John Helin of the Finland-based Black Bird conflict-analysis group echoed Biletsky in saying ‌fatigue was ⁠a problem for Russian forces, while Ukraine's war effort is hampered by a manpower shortage.

    "It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it's much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point," he told Reuters. 

The Reuters article continues:

    Russian troops are bearing down on eastern Ukraine's "Fortress Belt" where fighting is raging inside the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, its southern end.

 

    The constellation of heavily fortified ​cities anchors Ukrainian defences. Capturing it would position ​Russia to threaten the rest of the Donbas.

 

    Biletsky, ⁠whose forces hold over one-tenth of the total front line, said his troops were firmly holding the flank around Sloviansk, the belt's northern bastion, and forcing Russia to attack the city head-on.

 

    Such costly assaults have helped drain Russian forces and led to heavy losses of field commanders, he said, in what ​he described as a professional degradation of Moscow's military.

 

    "The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did, for example, ​a year ago," said Biletsky.

 

    Biletsky ⁠said it was too early to draw conclusions from Kyiv's recent success, but that Ukraine could capitalise on it by continuing mid-range attacks and advancing "carefully".

 

    Moscow is "radically losing" in battlefield communications because of Musk's crackdown on use of Starlink, Biletsky said.

 

    But he described the sides at parity in evolving technology - with Ukraine leading in unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and heavy bomber drones, and Russia winning the race for fibre-optic drones, which cannot be jammed.

 

    A ⁠potential blueprint for ​a modernised Ukrainian army, his corps has led efforts to transform training and integrate new technology such as UGVs as ​an important part of its battlefield strategy.

 

    Biletsky's units lead the way in deploying stealthy kamikaze drones and robots armed with machineguns or rocket launchers to replace significant portions of infantrymen, aiming for 30% by 2027, he said.

 

    The next "revolution" will allow commanders ​to stage more "creative" combined assault operations while conserving precious troops, Biletsky said.

 

    "It will happen this year, and I think we'll show how our corps is a vivid example of it," he said.