Reaction to the Wuhan Virus: Panicked, Lackadaisical ... or Seriously?

My wife and I have exciting date nights. Yesterday, we had dinner and then went to wander around Cabela's. I always go into the ammo section to see what is there, and to periodically pick up .22 ammunition (after the last ammo drought I committed to regularly buying a box or two to build up and sustain a modest supply). There was plenty of ammo for rifles and most pistol calibers with one exception: there was a huge hole where the 9 mm ammo normally resided. It was all gone. Normal amounts of .380 on one side and .38 Special/.357 on the other, and empty shelves between--with all other calibers well stocked. (Buckshot was also cleaned out, but the store never stocks much of that).

     Curious. Does this mean that most people who panic use 9 mm, or that 9 mm has pretty much supplanted all other calibers for defensive pistols?

     In any event, a trudged back up to the front of the store with my box of .22 ammunition and a box of .380 to ring up my purchase. The cashier asked if I was getting ready to defend my cache of toilet paper. After we laughed, he went on to explain there had been heavy sales of ammunition all day. I mentioned that I figured something like that had happened because of the empty shelves of ammunition.

    But it did get me thinking of how different people have reacted to the pandemic. A lot of people are approaching this whole thing with panic. Most emblematic of this attitude is the panicked buying and hoarding of toilet paper. The Daily Beast reports:

      The average person in the U.S. uses about 100 rolls of toilet paper each year. If most of it came from China, this could be a huge problem because supply chains from that country have been severely disrupted as a result of COVID-19.

      The U.S., however, imports very little toilet paper – less than 10% in 2017. And most of that comes from Canada and Mexico.

     The U.S. has been mass producing toilet paper since the late 1800s. And while other industries like shoe manufacturing have fled the country, toilet paper manufacturing has not. Today there are almost 150 U.S. companies making this product.

The author of the article understands why people would be concerned about obtaining a stock of face masks or, probably of more use, hand sanitizer. Buy why toilet paper?

      Australia has also suffered from panic buying of toilet paper despite plentiful domestic supply. A risk expert in the country explained it this way: “Stocking up on toilet paper is … a relatively cheap action, and people like to think that they are ‘doing something’ when they feel at risk.”

      This is an example of “zero risk bias,” in which people prefer to try to eliminate one type of possibly superficial risk entirely rather than do something that would reduce their total risk by a greater amount.

     Hoarding also makes people feel secure. This is especially relevant when the world is faced with a novel disease over which all of us have little or no control. However, we can control things like having enough toilet paper in case we are quarantined.

      At the opposite extreme are the people that approach the Wuhan virus outbreak with a lackadaisical or cavalier attitude. One of the most egregious examples of this, of course, was Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert's "prank" of touching every microphone and recorder in front of him at a press conference a few days before testing positive for COVID-19. More insidious are the people that know or suspect they are infected, and purposefully go out to infect others, such as this case from Japan.

       In its more mild form, these are people that say "it's not as bad as the flu." Well, yes and no. As I've pointed out several times, the infection rates and, consequently, the number of deaths, of seasonal flu is much higher than that from COVID-19. On the other hand, if you catch the Wuhan virus, the consequences could be more severe: it has a higher death rate than seasonal flu (latest estimates place the death rate at 1%) and Hong Kong doctors have reported that people who fully recover from the coronavirus can be left with '20 to 30%' less lung function. Of course, this is from people with severe infections--it is probable that most people who catch it will have mild or very mild symptoms.

     The proper attitude toward the Wuhan outbreak is neither panic nor unconcern, but taking it seriously. This is where mitigation takes its role in slowing the spread of the virus. Not only does this save hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients but, if like most viruses, we can delay long enough the warmer weather will cause the epidemic to die off. President Trump takes this seriously which is why he quickly acted to cut off travel from infected countries ... and reminded us that the best safety measures are to wash our hands and avoid touching our face.

     Conversely, Europe's open border policies allowed the epidemic to take hold there (particularly in Italy). Monica Showalter, writing at The American Thinker, points out:

     Italy's in dire need of help.

     Its health care system is collapsing. The coronavirus has put the whole country in quarantine. There are now 15,000 cases, along with 1,018 deaths, the last 24 hours bringing in 188 more. The casualty count is the highest outside China. And it's spreading fast. Until a few days ago, the problem was concentrated in the north. Now, it has spread throughout the whole country.

     Anyone with a heart can feel pity and an urge to help them. They need help, bad.

     But don't go asking the European Union.

     Turns out this open-borders globalist set-up is stiffing the Italians in their hour of need:

      First, the EU created the problem by failing to shut down their borders with China, enabling its spread into Italy in the first place. While President Trump was acting swiftly to protect America from the lethal virus, the European Union was saying there was no crisis and calling Trump a xenophobe.

     Now, with Italy hit hard based on that hate-Trump 'logic', its medical system is overwhelmed. Its doctors and nurses are exhausted. There's not enough equipment, there's not enough supplies, and the patients keep coming. The Italians are appealing for help with masks, surgical equipment, doctors, anything that will enable them to get through it and save human lives -- and the EU is not giving it.

Europe has a crises because it didn't take the outbreak seriously, and then when it did, it was probably too late. Now that some of the European Union members most need help, the Union does not matter: "Nigel Farage has said that the actions of governments across Europe over coronavirus 'show the concept of solidarity, so championed by the EU and their globalist friends, now counts for nothing. We are all nationalists now.'"

     Keep in mind that the virus still has a vote in all of this. I've seen reports that Chinese experts are saying that the virus escaped quarantine in Wuhan because it mutated--a strain which took longer to show symptoms apparently developed, which allowed those infected with it to be released from quarantine.

    But be sure that this incident will likely have long term consequences on a political and economic level. As I noted recently, one of the victims of this outbreak may well be the globalism that allowed it to spread. Richard Fernandez has also written on this topic in his article, "Globalization May Be the Greatest Victim of the Coronavirus." From the article:

      Should it ever settle down, the lasting impact of Covid-19 will probably be cultural. Physically the pandemic has seemingly left the world's infrastructure untouched. The accumulated deaths, while tragic, appear thankfully few compared to war. What obviously died was the confidence of the End of History. What Covid-19 ended was the illusion of control. Before the virus, world leaders had big plans for the future. Now they will be happy to survive the present.

* * *

      One of the losers may be the idea of globalization. "Well before a deadly virus began spreading across multiple borders, a world defined by deepening interconnection appeared to be reassessing the merits of globalization," wrote Peter Goodman of the NYT.

The United States, led by the unabashed nationalist Donald J. Trump, was ordering multinational companies to abandon China and make their goods in American factories. Britain was forsaking the European Union ...
A surge of refugees fleeing some of the most dangerous places on earth — Syria, Afghanistan, Central America — had produced a backlash against immigration in many developed countries. ...

"The coronavirus that has seeped out of China, insinuating itself into at least 81 countries while killing more than 3,200 people" may prove the death blow to a lot of political projects. "It has sown chaos in the global supply chain that links factories across borders and oceans." The public is discovering that a lot of mid-20th-century progressive social engineering -- communal kitchens, high-density housing, public transportation, daycare -- is surprisingly dangerous in a truly connected world. As a result of recent reversals, Bernie Sanders may be walking into what the NYT calls the "Open Borders Trap":

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont vows a moratorium on deportations and a move to “break up” ICE. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts joined him in pledging to make border crossings a civil, not criminal offense, before leaving the race this week. Both would include undocumented migrants in their plans for universal health insurance (as did the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., Pete Buttigieg, a moderate who also left the race recently).

What was only recently a promise is now a threat.

He goes on to note that the consequences may continue as the virus may return as most viral infections, such as the Spanish Flu, spread in recurrent waves. If so:

Instead of a rapid return to normalcy societies may experience a long period of adjustment in social distance norms, travel regulations, supply chain arrangements, personal privacy, and political norms. These will effectively produce a whole new world. The old global system may be in for a long siege and it is unclear that it will ever be the same again.