A Quick Run Around the Web (3/24/2020)

"A Brief History of Toilet Paper"--The History Guy (13 min.)

Toilet paper is actually a fairly recent invention. This short documentary looks at what people used before toilet paper, and process by which toilet paper slowly became accepted in the West.

• First up, there is a new Woodpile Report. Words of advice: 

These are your choices. They always were and they always will be. 

• Prepare when no one else is preparing. 

• Panic when everyone else is panicking.

• Bigger isn't always better: "10 of the Top Moose Cartridges and Bullets"--Outdoor Life. The author explains:

Moose are generally wimps. For most hunters in the Lower 48 traveling to hunt moose, their go-to deer rifle is a fine choice. Yes, moose are enormous, powerful animals—but they also have large and powerful circulatory and respiratory systems. A well-placed bullet through these vitals will kill a moose quickly. So, I tend to go with a rifle that is comfortable to shoot and very accurate.

The calibers he recommends range from .243 on the small size, up through your standard dear hunting cartridges (e.g., .270, .308 and .30-06) and topping out at .375 Ruger. He gives specific recommendations as to bullet for each caliber.

• They chose poorly: "Teenager opens fire on three armed men after attempted burglary, killing one"--Washington Examiner. From the article:

      Three armed intruders broke into the Cobb County home late Sunday night in what appeared to be an attempted burglary.

     An unnamed teenager living in the home shot and killed one of the suspects, Machavellia Bagsby, 21. Another suspect, Taruss Miller, 21, was shot in the leg. Authorities later apprehended a third suspect, a 16-year-old.

     Miller was caught on a home security camera begging for help after being shot. He and the unidentified 16-year-old were charged with murder, aggravated assault, attempted armed robbery, burglary, and possession of a firearm.

     Police are still investigating the situation and do not plan to charge the 17-year-old with any crimes.

• "No Strings Attached: The New Umarex AirSaber Arrow Rifle"--The Firearm Blog. A high-pressure air gun that shoots arrows (including broad-heads). 
• Some papers and articles on bullet penetration and effect on various barriers:

• "The benefit of a tough skin: bullet holes, weathering and the preservation of heritage"--Royal Society Open Science. A look at the long term effects from bullet impact on building stones (using sandstone as the test medium). The whole article is available.

• "Penetration of granular materials by small-arms bullets"--International Journal of Impact Engineering. Unfortunately, only the abstract is available. From the abstract: "In the experimental tests, five different types of granular material (0–2 mm wet sand, 0–2 mm dry sand, 2–8 mm gravel, 8–16 mm crushed stone and 16–22 mm crushed rock) were impacted by four different types of small-arms bullets (7.62 mm Ball with a soft lead core, 7.62 mm AP with a hard steel core, 12.7 mm Ball with a soft steel core and 12.7 mm AP with a tungsten carbide core)." Also, "[a]n important observation from this study is that the penetration depth is strongly influenced by deviation of the bullet from its original trajectory. Good agreement between the available experimental results and the numerical predictions is also in general obtained."

• "Ballistic model for the prediction of penetration depth and residual velocity in adobe: A new interpretation of the ballistic resistance of earthen masonry"--Defence Technology. The whole article is available, including download of a PDF if you like.

•  "Triggernometry – Home Bullet Penetration Testing"--Guns America. A good explanation of the pro's and con's of gelatin tests. An excerpt:

       What we are looking for is comparing the properties of one bullet to another. I can find no good correlation between actual stopping power, killing power, blowing back power, or any effective gunfight power and how well a bullet blows up a block of gelatin. The same is true for other things you read about, like how it stretches the block, or creates stress cracks in the block. I can’t say there isn’t a relation, but nothing has been proven or demonstrated to date that matters one wit. When I was younger folks bought up big blocks of clay to shoot – how disappointed we were when our “magic” bullets did not blow up critters the same way.

      As good as gelatin is, it gives a false sense of security when it comes to consistent performance. Harkening back to that load of excellent reputation, the .357 125gr JHP, it will produce (or at least in most brands) about 12-14” of penetration in 10% gel and will expand violently. I have seen that same load penetrate as little as 1” on a human being (a head shot on a hard headed subject) and I have all seen the same load shoot all the way through, because it didn’t hit anything solid. People and critters are not homogenous. One just never knows.

      In animals and people I find that general class of load, which penetrates from 12 to 14 inches of 10% gelatin, will typically penetrate on average about 9 to 10 inches if the hit is in the chest cavity. Though it is not extremely rare to see one go 4” deep or again, go completely through. Why the difference? I do not know, other than that there is a lot of stuff in a human of varying consistency and resistance. The point is that we use mediums because they are consistent, not because they will tell us exactly what will happen. They give a rough idea and compare the characteristics of one bullet to another.

• Victory is not always to the swift: "Pistol Access – Building Grip Minutia"--Growing Up Guns. The author examines a couple different techniques for grasping your handgun when you start the draw: the ‘downward draw’/Full Firing Grip where you get a firm grip on your pistol before drawing; and the "‘upward draw’/’claw’ draw. Using the three little fingers to initiate building the grip and finalize the grip either simultaneously or once the gun is moving up and out of the holster." The latter is faster, but less secure, which might be an issue when drawing from concealment or if an attacker makes a grab for your gun when you are drawing. Good article, and I recommend you read the whole thing.
• "Ranks of Gun-owners Explodes"--Dispatches from Heck. The author surmises that the current gun and ammo rush is mostly driven by first time gun owners, who are getting a harsh lesson in the realities of how difficult it can be purchase a firearm, and disappointed in learning that firearms can't just be shipped to their door. After going through the many restrictions, the author concludes:

      I don't know for certain, but I would bet a lot of money that many of those first-time buyers experiencing the roadblocks outlined above were, until a few days ago, hard-line supporters of 'reasonable restrictions on who can get a gun', and they are, also for the first time, beginning to understand why all those "pro-gun fanatics" were so upset over each new reasonable restriction.  They're faced with a situation that does not treat lack of preparedness kindly and is especially cruel to those who weren't even aware that they weren't prepared.

      Welcome to the party, pals.

• Even if you do order a firearm and have it shipped to your local gun store, they might not accept it: "Overwhelmed Gun Stores Refusing to Process Online Purchase Transfers"--The Truth About Guns. From the article:

       ... we’ve talked to a variety of retailers in different parts of the nation who tell us that because of the crush of local business that they’re struggling to take care of, they’ve stopped doing transfers for incoming guns from online sellers.

      This is not a matter of dollars. They are so busy with the rush that it’s all they can do to take care of their local walk-in business. They simply don’t have the employees or the bandwidth to process transfers for online sales, too.

I've found a local guy that shares a store front with a couple other FFLs: he only charges $20 for transfers and because he is low volume, he is more than happy to take the 10 minutes or so for filling out the paperwork (Idaho doesn't require background checks for current CCL holders).

• "Top 5 Beginner CCW Mistakes (That I Made)"--The Firearm Blog. As I've written about before, concealed carry is a series of ongoing refinements and lessons learned as to many things, including how you carry the firearm (e.g., AIWB, strong side, pocket, etc.), selection of firearm, holsters, etc. But some of them are simple things that you don't really think about, and the latter is what this article about. Lessons that the author learned are: stop adjusting your clothes or patting yourself down constantly to see if you are printing; you need a good quality gun belt; when it comes to holsters, you generally get what you pay for; you need to carry with a round in the chamber; practice drawing from concealment with the clothes you will actually be wearing (which a lot of people fail to do for warm weather). 

      On that point, I suspect that a lot of people really fail to consider and test how to carry a firearm when wearing a winter coat or gloves. Can you even fit your gloved finger into the trigger guard? After I started carrying concealed, I moved to much lighter gloves in the winter to avoid that problem. I also found that if you are carrying concealed, carrying a small revolver in the pocket of a coat was faster and easier to access than a larger gun on my waist. 

• "The Nine Worst Holsters"--Redhawk Firearm Training. The author discusses 9 features that you should avoid in a holster. The list are: (1) the holster that doesn’t cover the trigger guard, (2) the holster that doesn’t provide a full firing grip, (3) the holster that doesn’t retain the firearm even when off the belt, (4) the holster made of nylon, (5) the holster that has a long list of guns it works with or comes in generic sizes, (6) a hybrid holster (what the author refers to a "flip flop gun bucket"), (7) the Blackhawk SERPA, (8) anything with the words “Urban Carry” on it, and (9) a strong-side holster that also has a spare mag pouch attached to it. I generally agree with what the author says, but there are always certain exceptions and caveats:

      The biggest caveat is the pocket holster. They generally come in certain stock sizes--even the better brands--and won't retain the gun if the holster is dumped upside down. But they prove an exception to the foregoing rules because they are designed to be carried in your pocket, which is, by extension, really part of the holster system.

      Another caveat or exception is that regarding the hybrid holster. There are some hybrid inside-the-waistband (IWB) holsters that are reputed to be very good. They typically use a kydex shell to hold the firearm and leather backing to provide comfort to the user and protect the firearm from sweat. I have a good friend that uses such a holster manufactured from Gunfighters Inc. and he has nothing but praises for it.

      And, finally, as to Nylon holsters, I would say it depends on the purpose. I have several inexpensive Uncle Mikes' Sidekick holsters that essentially only serve the purpose of holding my handgun and leaving my hands free while I am setting up targets or the such. They aren't for everyday carry and/or concealed carry, so I don't feel the need to pay the extra bucks for features or quality that I don't need. 

• "How to Sharpen a Tactical Knife"--Survival Bound. A knife sharpening tutorial. 
• "6mm Advanced Rifle Cartridge (6mm ARC) – New Mystery SAAMI Accepted Cartridge"--The Firearm Blog. The author notes: "To my knowledge, by the time of writing this article, no company has announced this cartridge yet." He continues:

      The 6mm ARC is a rimless .243 caliber cartridge. Judging by the case head dimensions and the Maximum Average Pressure (MAP) of 52,000 psi, it is based on the .220 Russian case (like the 6.5 Grendel or 6mm PPC). At first glance, the 30-degree shoulder angle and the shoulder diameter of .4301″ may make you think that 6mm ARC is a necked down 6.5 Grendel, however, the length to shoulder is 1.1207″ which is shorter than 6.5 Grendel’s 1.1507″ (and longer than 6mm PPC’s 1.075″).

       The maximum cartridge overall length of 2.26″ (57.4mm) is identical to the max COAL of .223 Remington which means 6mm ARC is designed to be an AR cartridge. The case length of 1.49″ results in a lot of bullet space (.77″ or 3.16 calibers) which will allow loading projectiles with very long ogives and great external ballistic performance. The SAAMI drawing states a muzzle velocity of 2,700 fps for 108-grain bullets.

• "YOU'VE STORED THE GRAIN--NOW IT'S TIME TO MAKE BREAD"--Guns Magazine. So you've decided to dig into that stockpile of wheat you have. What do you do? This article discusses the grinding of the wheat and different foods (including various types of bread) you can make with it.
• "The Last Mercenary: 'Mad' Mike Hoare Dead at 100"--Range 365. When I was young, they were "Mercs" not security consultants. And a surprising number were from the UK. 
• "US Army’s XM1158 Advanced Armor Piercing Round Set to Replace M80A1 EPR"--The Firearm Blog. According to the article, "[t]he Army is planning on a full materiel release for the round in FY 2020." It adds:

The new 7.62x51mm Advanced Armor Piercing Round will replace the current M993 AP round in the M993-linked configuration to provide improve lethality compared to the current M80A1 and M993 cartridges. The round can be used in the Army’s  M240 series of machine guns; the Mk 48 machine gun; and the M110 series, Mk 17, Mk 14, and M14 series rifles.

"Impact Shift of Shooting at an Angle"--Paul Harrell (5 min.)

• "Situational Assessment 2015"--Medium. Although the article is 5 years old, it raises some good points that are more valid than ever as to the economic and social problems we face. An excerpt:

       ... the total set of our social institutions are well past due. More importantly, the total set of the tools and concepts that we use to think about, assess and construct social institutions are well past due. My thinking here is derived from Carrol Quigley’s Evolution of Civilizations and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies.

      In sum: social technologies work. They enable us to get what we need from the world and increase our population, standard of living or both. And we do. Until our success changes the context and the set of problems we need to solve.

      Perhaps our population has gotten to the size that we can’t deal with our own waste (see London in the 17th Century). Perhaps our farming technique has reached its limits in being able to feed us and we are starting to see a decrease in crop yield (see Mayan Empire). Then we find we are in real trouble because we are married to our tools. We not only use them, we *think* with them. The only way we can figure out how to solve a problem is to use some tool from our “civilization toolkit”. So, when that toolkit itself is losing its edge, do we take the risk of leaving “what we know” or double down? Usually, almost always, the latter.

     I call this “hypertrophication.” This approach gives us a temporary reprieve but at the cost of getting even more specialized and locked-in. This makes it harder for us to break out of the mould so we have to keep doubling down. Eventually something gives and . . . bad things happen.

      A simple example is the response to the 2008 Financial Crisis. Rather than acknowledging that our entire approach to regulation (and, indeed to finance itself) is what is broken and needs to be thoroughly reinvented, we recoil from the magnitude of that level of consideration and, instead, try to solve the problem with “more of the same”. So our institutions get more complex, cost more time, energy and attention; and deliver, perhaps, a little bit of breathing room. Until the next crisis that they are entirely unprepared for.

       We are there. From somewhere around the beginning of WWI, the major structures Western Civilization innovated after the Enlightenment started to collapse. After WWII, we engineered a deep retrofit with a whole set of new technologies (the welfare state, operational planning, mass production, scientific engineering, etc.) and this worked. Wonderfully. Population exploded, lifestyle transformed. We went to the moon.

      But not all was well in the State of Denmark. Our late 20th Century innovations managed to carry us through to somewhere in the late 70's or early 80's. At this point we again started to see the edges of our “civilization toolkit” giving away and we made a fateful choice: stability in exchange for adaptive fitness. We doubled down. And since then, every time that the foundations started to shake, we’ve consistently chosen “more of the same.” The result is that we’ve been living in an increasingly delusional systemic environment.

      At this point, it is increasingly evident that every single one of our social institutions are in what I call the “rococo stage” or the “root bound” stage: they are complex, heavy, ineffective, poorly designed and essentially impossible to change for the better. Education, healthcare, policing, legislative and regulatory decision making, wealth distribution, monetary system, etc, etc. You name it.

       Now this entire category might be considered more of a “force multiplier” on other more fundamental challenges. e.g., a dysfunctional legislative and regulatory environment inhibits our ability to resolve the financial crisis. But, from another point of view, most if not all of our problems are a result of these powerful, delusional and hypertrophied tools.

       a) A huge amount of our social energy is tied up in these increasingly destructive institutions. e.g., Consider how much human capital is being wasted in our education system; or how our food/health systems destroy both food and health while simultaneously generating massive negative ecological impact.

       b) A huge amount of power is vested in these institutions and, in particular, in the elites who control them, who therefore have short term interests that are divergent from the rest of humanity. And the power to defend those interests (see hyper-surveillance).

       c) The “cognitive monopoly” on ideas held by the old civilization toolkit inhibits the discovery and implementation of actually good ideas at the individual, group and social levels.

      d) The resulting apathy, “false hopelessness,” or violent reaction that results when we can’t think our way out of our distress. Its one thing to face major problems. Its another thing when the tools, techniques and models that you’ve learned to solve problems with are themselves the problem. When you feel bad but also feel powerless to help yourself . . .

       Estimate: could last a while. It took hundreds of years for Rome and Byzantium to collapse. Our current institutional malaise could drag on for a while of its own accord. The problem is that it accentuates each and every other challenge. Consider the downside consequences of our dysfunctional economic/financial/political institutions various “responses” to the financial crisis. They make the crisis worse, reduce faith in political institutions and drive more people into “apathy” or “violence”. If the rubicon is crossed, we can easily see a financial crisis cascade into a social revolution.

     So, on a standalone basis, this challenge could drag on for decades. But each step of the way it becomes more and more brittle — allowing even the smallest perturbation to result in an avalanche.

• Speaking of being root-bound: "The Far-Right Domestic Extremist Threat to the Power Grid"--Homeland Security Today. The author apparently never took a course in formal logic. His argument is literally as follows:

• A neo-Nazi in New Zealand who was recently arrested for planning an attack on power substation. 

• Four (4) neo-Nazis or white supremacists have discussed how easy it would be to target portions of the power grid.

• Repairs to power-grids can be expensive, and damage can lead to black outs. 

• ∴ neo-Nazis pose a significant threat to the power grid. 

To be honest, I've seen better arguments presented on the television series Ancient Aliens. The poor reasoning is probably the result of the author's education at elite institutions, including Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Air Command & Staff College at the U.S. Air Force’s Air University, and his long experience working for the government in counter-terrorism. But he at least offers the helpful advice that a successful attack on power-substations would require taking out multiple transformers at multiple locations at the same time.

• "The rK Selection Theory applied to American Politics"--Metallicman. A nice summary of r/K theory. A couple excerpts:

      Have you ever wondered why there is such a lack of commonality in political discourse today? In America, you are either a Trump-supporter or not. There is absolutely no bridge or commonality between the two groups. It is almost as if there is one type of person who is composed of fire, and the other type of person is composed of water. Why is this?

     Well, there is a theory that precisely explains this dichotomy of behavior. This theory is called the “r/K Selection Theory in Evolutionary Ecology”, and it is based on the observed survival behaviors of  creatures.

     This post is primarily concerned with the application of the r/k Selection Theory as it is applied to mass mob psychology in the United States today.

And:

     Without labeling which political party is which, can you the reader, guess which political party is which?

     The r-strategist rabbits want free food and a life of ease and abundant free sex. They want as many of their ilk as possible to share in the abundance. They want to produce as many offspring as possible, as fast as possible, without regard to offspring quality.

     That’s right. The r-strategy fits the American Democrat party that is populated with Socialists, Progressives, and Liberals. Truthfully, Marxists are r-strategy rabbits in that they expect boundless support from the wealthy and successful.

     The K-strategist wolves want order and defined limits on behavior. They want traditional two-parent families, and meaningful education and training for their young. They are competitive and protective of family, sexually selective and monogamous, imbued with regard for two parent family life, desirous that offspring wait until mature to mate, and loyal to in-group are designed to produce highly fit and competitive offspring, designed to compete in an environment of resource scarcity.

     As you might have guessed, the K-strategy fits the American Republican party that is populated with Conservatives, Libertarians, and Neocons.

As an aside, the Anonymous Conservative goes into much more detail in his book The Evolutionary Psychology Behind Politics and discusses how Libertarians don't really fit neatly in the r/K dynamic. In fact, probably the most reliable indicator of which group a person matches up with is their stance on immigration and borders as that is a measure of in-group loyalty. 

• "The Wuhan (Chinese) Coronavirus"--The Writer In Black. While news media has been focused on the number of hospital beds total, the author notes that as to the beds that matter--i.e., for critical care--the United States has more than any other country in the world on a per capita basis. "What was an overwhelming crisis in Italy will be 'a bit busy' in the US." After examining data in infection rates and death rates, the author concludes that "at worst case then, we’re talking about a total of 30 million cases in the US and 15,000 deaths.  That’s somewhat worse than the 2009 H1N1 epidemic, but not much."
• "India’s prime minister decrees 21-day lockdown to curb virus"--AP. 
• "SARS-CoV-2 public service announcement"--Jim's Blog. 

      Wash your hands before touching your face. Soap and water not only removes the virus, but kills it. Disinfectant works, but is unnecessary.

      The virus survives for a day or two on glass, steel (such a doorknobs) and plastic (such as supermarket wrappings) Windex spray kills and removes the virus. Clean everything that has been exposed to outsiders. Windex spray is more convenient than soap and water for doorknobs and such.

Sort of odd, but when I was at a Target this past weekend, all the cleaning supplies were gone, except for the Windex.

• "The Great Fall of China?"--Epoch Times. The author observes:

      China’s economy was in deep trouble before it launched its viral pandemic upon the world. The trade war tariffs had diminished exports, and supply chains were moving out of China. But now the economic outlook appears weaker than it has in decades. This may be its worst quarter since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976, with an actual contraction in GDP in Q1.

      Of course, despite the pandemic, Beijing has insisted that it will meet its economic growth goals for 2020. But that’s not realistic. It’s not even clear that China is actually over the pandemic. People can still be seen lining up at hospitals and recent cellphone rolls on China Mobile show up to 21 million fewer users compared to three months ago near the start of the pandemic.

      Of course, no economy was prepared for a global pandemic, and all nations will continue to be severely challenged by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus outbreak and its aftermath. But the inherent weakness in China’s economy makes it exceptionally vulnerable to both the pandemic downturn and the shift in global trade patterns away from China that’s underway. This dependency is made worse by cratering domestic demand.

     What’s more, the Chinese Communist Party’s comprehensive oppression stifles efficiency and innovation in the economy. This will make it more difficult for the economy to adapt quickly to the challenges posed by this pandemic and the evolving global economy.

      As a consequence, the pillars of China’s economy—consumer spending and real estate, as well as exports and direct foreign investment—are shaking, even crumbling, before Beijing’s eyes. The highly profitable pharmaceutical and medical supply industries, for example, will be repatriated to the United States as soon as possible.

• On the other hand, China may see the current disarray caused by the Wuhan virus outbreak and decide now is the best time to realize its territorial ambitions: "Will The Dragon Lash Out?"--And Magazine. First, the author explains why China may see this as an opportune time:

      When the only country that can stop China is in self-quarantine and its economy shuddering to a stop, and in political turmoil with a difficult election coming up – one might fairly say America is distracted.

     So Beijing just might conclude the time is right.

      Indeed, put yourself in Xi Jinping’s position and you might feel compelled to do something big.

     First, COVID-19 hit China far harder than Beijing is letting on.  And if the economy does not recover soon mass unrest is possible.  Keep in mind that the PRC’s internal security budget is reportedly higher than its “regular” defense budget. 

      And that was before COVID-19 hit the country. 

     The CCP kept the virus outbreak under wraps – allowing it to brew up – and then bungled the response.  Thousands died and more were sickened – and hundreds of millions forced into “lock-down.”  That tends to create resentment against the Chinese leadership – even if it’s dangerous to say so.

      Adding to the trouble, export markets are drying up as the virus spreads worldwide and demand for Chinese exports – evaporates. 

     But remember that Xi and the CCP already faced plenty of challenges to their self-image as all-powerful leaders of a regime destined for global supremacy.

      For starters, Taiwan refused to bow to intense PRC pressure.  Xi couldn’t even bring Taipei to heel.  The island nation recently reelected – by a large majority – a President opposed to unification with the mainland.  Even the opposition KMT realizes its “soft on PRC” platform is a loser with most of Taiwan’s electorate. 

      Taiwan’s effective COVID-19 virus response further humiliates Xi and the CCP.  

      Meanwhile, the U.S. Government gradually increases its support for Taiwan – and does not hide the fact.

      Hong Kong is still rebellious and stared down the CCP’s “front” government last year via massive pro-freedom protests.  That must sting.  And the United States and other countries enacted laws to punish Beijing if it cracks down on Hong Kong.  That stings too.

     U.S. trade pressure hurts, embarrasses, and infuriates Beijing as it exposes China’s economic dependencies.  Washington’s efforts to take down Huawei, China’s flagship telecom company, add to Beijing’s resentment.  

      And China’s claims to the South China Sea (SCS) are not respected.  The Americans, Australians, Japanese, Canadians, British, French and others challenge PRC ownership claims – and regularly conduct military operations in the SCS.  The PLA orders foreign warships and planes to leave, but they still go about their business. 

      Moreover, the United States is bolstering it military position and alliances in the Asia/Pacific.  And the U.S. is finally improving weaponry and tactics to counter Chinese advantages.  The PLA is still excluded from the RIMPAC exercise.

     So along comes COVID-19 – hammering the Chinese economy and the CCP’s reputation – and tarnishing the PRC’s image overseas.  

     Viewed from Xi’s perspective this is getting dangerous.  And the U.S. just might appear as an existential threat to a CCP-run China – and requiring desperate measures.  

The article then goes on to explain the "soft power" and "sharp power" techniques that the CCP is using, and possible "hard power" moves that might follow.

• "Violent solar storms that trigger Northern Lights are being generated much closer to Earth than scientists previously thought possible"--Daily Mail.  These storms form when solar winds interact with the Earth's magnetic field and, according to the article, they are forming at distances less than 24,000 miles from the surface of the Earth.
• A reminder that we live in the 21st Century: "SURVEILLANCE SELF-DEFENSE: TIPS, TOOLS AND HOW-TOS FOR SAFER ONLINE COMMUNICATIONS" a project of the Electronic Frontier Foundation.