Disease Mutations

I was reading this article about the Ebola outbreak in Uganda, and noticed this part:

However, Museveni said that the virus had not been immediately identified this time, resulting in a delay.

"The bleeding which normally accompanies Ebola did not take place initially among these patients," he said, adding that health workers at first did not therefore realise what the problem was.

"Because of that delay the sickness spread."  

Unfortunately, there is little more information. So we don't know if the lack of bleeding was due to a particular strain of the virus, coincidence among the victims, or some other factor at play here. One of the problems that the Ebola virus faces is that it is so lethal that its victims die before they can pass the disease on. Historically, between mutations in a virus or bacteria, and increased immunity in the population, many diseases have become less virulent over time in order to more easily propagate. Perhaps this is a sign of a slightly less deadly version of Ebola that would, for that reason, more easily spread.

On a related note, there is this story of bird flu crossing over to seals, suggesting that it could infect other mammals.

It's a virus that originated in birds, but the newest strain of avian flu has killed 162 harbor seals in New England and scientists warn it could be even more dangerous if it jumps to humans.

Researchers revealed on Tuesday that the aquatic mammals, which washed up dead or dying on the shores of Maine and northern Massachusetts last fall, were infected with the H3N8 strain of influenza.

The seals suffered horrifying skin lesions, a previously unknown symptom in flu deaths, and pneumonia as a result of a virus that they contracted from North American waterfowl, according to researchers at Columbia University.

Even more worrying is the fact that the virus has mutated to develop the ability to infect the cells of mammals -- a first for the avian pathogen.

The story also mentions that there have been several outbreaks of swine flu in the United States.

Muslim Botherhood Plots to Overthrow Middle-Eastern Governments

From the Jerusalem Post:

Dubai's chief of police has warned of an "international plot" to overthrow the governments of Gulf Arab countries, saying the region needs to be prepared to counter any threat from Islamist dissidents as well as Syria and Iran.

The comments by Dahi Khalfan, one of the most outspoken security officials in the United Arab Emirates, follow the detention in the UAE since April of at least 20 dissidents, according to relatives of the detainees and activists.

"There's an international plot against Gulf states in particular and Arab countries in general...This is preplanned to take over our fortunes," Khalfan told reporters at a gathering late on Wednesday marking the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

"The bigger our sovereign wealth funds and the more money we put in the banks of Western countries, the bigger the plot to take over our countries...The brothers and their governments in Damascus and North Africa have to know that the Gulf is a red line, not only for Iran but also for the Brothers as well."

Most of the detainees since April are Islamists, targeted by an official clampdown amid concern they may be emboldened by the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in other Arab countries such as Egypt.

UAE Interior Ministry officials have not been available to comment on the arrests. Last week, UAE officials announced that authorities were investigating a foreign-linked group planning "crimes against the security of the state".

"I had no idea that there is this large number of Muslim Brotherhood in the Gulf states. We have to be alert and on guard because the wider these groups become, the higher probability there is for trouble," Khalfan said on Wednesday.

"We are aware that there are groups plotting to overthrow Gulf governments in the long term."

So why is the Obama Administration so supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood's role in the so-called "Arab Spring"?

Airports and the Spread of Disease

It's long been known that airports are key hubs for spreading diseases, not just because they represent rapid transport to other nations or regions, but also because the close confines and recycled air on aircraft is conducive to spreading infections. However, this article at Medical News Today discusses a study that attempted to predict the most "influential" airports in the U.S. for spreading diseases.

A conventional random flow model would show that the biggest airport hubs in terms of traffic volume would be the most influential spreaders of disease.

But the team, with their more realistic model, showed that is not the case.

Honolulu Airport: Less Traffic But Big Influence

A random diffusion model would look at Honolulu airport, which has only 30% of the air traffic of New York's Kennedy International Airport, and conclude half its travellers would go on to San Francisco and half to Anchorage, taking the disease to those airports, passing it onto other travellers, who then in turn pass it on in further random travel patterns.

But the new MIT model looks at Honolulu airport and predicts, despite it having 70% less traffic, that in terms of disease spread, it is nearly as influential as New York's Kennedy International Airport.

This is because Honolulu airport occupies a unique position in the air transportation network. It is located in the Pacific Ocean and is well connected to distant, large and well-connected hubs. So it comes third, ahead of San Francisco, in the list of 40 US airports in terms of contagion-spreading influence.

Of the 40 US airports the model examined in terms of influence on disease spread, it puts Kennedy Airport in first place, followed by airports in Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Newark, Chicago (O'Hare) and Washington (Dulles).

It's The Uncertainty, Stupid

I saw this article today, and it reminded me that the Democrat controlled Congress has not passed a budget in three years.

This inability to tackle the long-term horizon has left America facing a much more urgent debt fight that risks plunging the US back into recession and casting a long shadow over the rest of the world economy. As things stand, the world's largest economy will fall off what Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, has called a "fiscal cliff" at the end of the year.

In practical terms, the cliff has two main ingredients. Firstly, tax rises that come from the expiration on December 31 of cuts introduced by George W Bush and later extended by Obama. Secondly, the start of $1.2 trillion of spending cuts that will be split between defence and other government spending.

To give a sense of the steepness of the cliff, economists at Bank of America estimate that if the tax rises and spending cuts are all allowed to happen then it will produce a fiscal tightening equivalent to 4pc of US gross domestic product. That is bigger than anything David Cameron and George Osborne have tried since taking office.

And it is the uncertainty over whether the US will fall off the cliff that is worrying Pat Conroy and his software firm in Texas. The greater hesitancy among the businesses he sells to has left Conroy unsure whether he will convert the handful of contractors the company has added this year into permanent employees.

Nor is the fog just restricting the view of America's army of small businesses. With half of the spending cuts due to come from the military budget, the country's biggest defence and aerospace companies are rattled. No one appears to know which specific programmes will be targeted when the axe falls in January. "We're entering a time frame when the uncertainty is as onerous as the cuts themselves," Jim McNerney, the chairman and chief executive of Boeing, said. "I have no choice but to adjust my costs."

If it were just Conroy's 35-person operation or even the vast Boeing company affected that would be manageable. But an increasing number of economists expect a measure of paralysis to ripple across US businesses over the rest of the year.

Analysts at Bank of America believe it will bring the US economy to a virtual halt in the fourth quarter, when it is forecasting growth of just 0.25pc. "Businesses don't have any clarity and we think we'll see them respond," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America. "It will start showing up in the data in coming months."

Worryingly, it is not just America's businesses that are stuck with a restricted view of how much they will be taxed next year and where exactly spending cuts will fall. It is consumers whose spending still accounts for the lion's share of the economy. Should all the tax cuts, including an emergency tax on salaries, be allowed to lapse, the Tax Policy Center estimates that 83pc of households will face an annual increase in their tax bills of $3,701.

It leaves Obama in somewhat of a Catch-22: He wants to "fundamentally transform America" (i.e., crash the economy so he can impose his socialist utopia) but he needs to get re-elected.

DHS Orders Riot Gear in Preparation for Political Conventions

Prison Planet reports:

The Department of Homeland Security has put out an urgent solicitation for hundreds of items of “riot gear,” in preparation for expected unrest at the upcoming Republican National Convention, Democratic National Convention and next year’s presidential inauguration.

The DHS solicitation issued on Wednesday gave potential suppliers just one day to submit their proposals, with the equipment to be delivered to Alexandria, VA within a 15-day period after the award is made.

The riot gear will be worn by Federal Protective Service agents who are tasked with protecting property, grounds and buildings owned by the federal government.

* * *

This is by no means the only indication that the Department of Homeland Security is gearing up for civil unrest inside the United States.

Back in March, the DHS awarded defense contractor ATK a deal to provide the DHS with 450 million rounds of bullets over a five year period.

The DHS has also recently purchased a number of bullet-proof checkpoint booths that include ‘stop and go’ lights.

Earlier this year, the federal agency also hired hundreds of new security guards to protect government buildings

In January, residents were stunned to see FPS agents armed with semiautomatic guns stationed outside a Social Security office in Florida checking ID’s as part of an exercise.

The Federal Protective Service has also been used by the DHS to track the political activities of peaceful advocacy groups.

TARP Was Even Worse Than You Think

Glenn Reynolds linked to this article (and video) on how abysmal TARP turned out to be. (Note, the video plays automatically).

Most Americans have a sense TARP was a badly managed program that bailed out "fat cat" bankers at the expense of U.S. taxpayers. Well, it's even worse than you think, according to Neil Barofsky, former special inspector general for TARP (SIGTARP).

Officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations took the attitude "bankers know best," Barofsky recalls. "It was somewhat shocking how much control big banks had over their own bailout [and] the overwhelming deference show by Treasury officials to the banks."

* * *

In the accompanying video, we focused more on TARP's failings to live up to its promise to help individual Americans, not just the big banks.

Congress never would've passed TARP if not for programs included in the program to help homeowners facing foreclosure and generally spur bank lending. "TARP was an abysmal failure on those very important goals the reason why they got that money to give to the banks in the first place," Barofsky says.

TARP "did help prevent financial Armageddon," he concedes. "But there's a reason why Congress required and Treasury promised TARP would do a lot more. It's not complicated to take hundreds of billions [of dollars] and pour them into institutions ... and they don't fail. You really can't evaluate TARP" exclusively on how it impacted the banks.

Similarly, Barofsky takes offense to Treasury's repeated proclamations that TARP has been profitable.

While the big banks have paid back their loans, the overall program is now projected to lose somewhere between $32 billion to $70 billion, with $109.1 billion owed as of June 30, according to SIGTARP. Most of those losses are tied to AIG -- Treasury still own 61% of the company -- but more than half of the 325 banks that received TARP aid have missed dividend or interest payments.

Greek Bankruptcy in August?

From yesterday's Telegraph:

The beleaguered country will have to refinance billions of euros worth of government bonds in less than a month and requires international assistance — which may not be forthcoming — to repay the money.

International inspectors arrived back in Greece on Tuesday to assess the country’s austerity programme with European officials warning that it was “hugely off track”.

David Cameron is now receiving daily written updates on the deteriorating situation and was warned earlier this week that a Greek bankruptcy in the next month is now a serious possibility.

Navy SEALS Lesson Learned from Aurora, CO

The SOFREP blog has an article on lessons learned from the incident in Aurora, CO:

As I continue to read about the terrible tragedy in Aurora, Colorado, I can’t help but think there’s some lessons from my time as a Navy SEAL that I can pass on to the average citizen. I want to make sure that the victims of the Aurora do not suffer or die in vain. As a country, we need to learn from this tragedy, raise awareness, and save lives in the future. So here goes… 

Don’t Make Yourself an Easy Target

When at sporting events, concerts, and the movies, choose seats that give you a tactical advantage always. What do I mean? Choose seats that allow good and east vantage points and a hasty exit point. Always stack the odds in your favor. It’s the reason I still combat park (back in to a space) and sit with my back to the wall when I’m eating. 

Active Shooter Scenario Advice

Take cover and not concealment. Concealment hides, cover hides AND protects. It’s the difference between hiding behind a movie seat or a concrete wall.

Don’t lie there with your eyes closed and get shot. Think and move. In these situations you have to take charge and get in the mindset of self-rescue. You cannot wait for first-responders – it takes too long. A good decision executed quickly is better than a great one never executed. Violence of action, as we call it in the Spec Ops community, will often change the odds in your favor.

For close quarter combat drills we’d draw a gun with someone over 20 feet away running at us. In most cases you can be on someone before they can draw and take a shot. I’m not advocating running straight at someone but if you have the tactical advantage (jam, re-loading, distraction or the shooter isn’t paying attention) then take the shooter down or get the hell out of there. Remember that a moving target is extremely hard to hit, even for the well-trained shooter. Deal with the situation with your eyes wide open.

In Aurora, the shooter was severely weighted down with armor and his helmet would have also limited his vision. You can use all this to your advantage.

The author also recommends that you carry a tactical flashlight, and if in a jurisdiction friendly towards firearms and self defense, obtaining a concealed carry license. And, similar to what I've stated before, alter your lifestyle to avoid unnecessary risk. Anyway, read the whole thing.

Energy Department Favored Obama Donors

The House Energy and Commerce Committee released a report today on the Energy Department’s decision to subordinate taxpayers to private investors in the ill-fated Solyndra project. That is, the taxpayers would have to wait in line behind the private investors and let them recoup all of their losses first. Only after that could taxpayers could get any money back – assuming there would be any money to recoup at this point. In this case, that would be a reported $328 million of the $335 million federal loan guarantee to Solyndra.

This is significant because the plain language of the department’s own rules for loan guarantees states that taxpayers must not be subordinate and instead must come first. The committee’s report argues that Energy Department officials made a spur of the moment decision to violate this standard as part of a desperate attempt to keep the company afloat, then scrambled after the fact to justify their action....

 (Full story here).

Nation of Islam Patroling Streets in Chicago

The Chicago Sun Times reports:

Ignoring Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan’s history of anti-Semitic remarks, Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Wednesday welcomed the army of men dispatched to the streets by Farrakhan to stop the violence in Chicago neighborhoods.

* * *

“The police have a role to play. Tearing down abandoned buildings has a role to play. Shutting liquor stores that are a cancer in the community have a role to play. Community leaders have a role to play. Pastors have a role to play. Principals have a role to play. And most importantly, parents have roles to play. They have decided, the Nation of Islam, to help protect the community. And that’s an important ingredient, like all the other aspects of protecting a neighborhood.”

For the last two Mondays, black men in dress suits and bow ties fanned out across violence-plagued Chicago neighborhoods — first Auburn-Gresham, then South Shore — to form a human wall of protection against any sudden outbreak of gunfire.

The army of men, know as the Fruit of Islam, were led by Farrakhan, who ordered the show of force in response to last month’s brutal murder of seven-year-old Heaven Sutton.

A few years ago, if someone had said that the Nation of Islam would be sending men out en-masse to police neighborhoods with the full blessing of the Mayor, that someone would have been labeled a "conspiracy nut."

Loving Families Produce Smarter Children

The Daily Mail reports:

Researchers found that children in care have less grey and white matter - the two components of the central nervous system - than those brought up in a typical home environment.

Children in foster families have normal levels of white matter, which relays messages in the brain, but less of the grey matter which contains nerve cells and controls muscles, memory, emotions and speech.

Scientists believe the findings could explain why children who spend time in care are statistically more likely to develop issues such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and mental health problems.

People who have been in care also have, on average, lower IQ and language skills than those who grew up in loving homes.

The differences in levels of grey and white matter is most likely to be due to varying levels of stimulation required for normal brain development, researchers said.

Many children in care have been exposed to deprivation and neglect, which could be linked to their lower levels of grey and white matter.

From the context, I can't tell if the term "care" means simply "raised in an orphanage" or includes "day care." From the overall article, however, I believe the author means the former. Perhaps one of you reading this knows and can comment.

Babylon Revealed?

Revelations seems to tie "Babylon" (the antithesis of the New Jerusalem) with mercantile and financial elements. (See Chapters 17 and 18). So, I found the following interesting:

A major new study has revealed that at least $21 trillion (17 trillion euros) of unreported private financial wealth was being held by the world's super-rich in tax havens around the world at the end of 2010.

Former McKinsey & Co Chief Economist James Henry conducted the research for the Tax Justice Network, a coalition that campaigns against tax avoidance and tax havens.

The study, entitled "The Price of Offshore Revisited" focused only on financial wealth rather than non-financial assets such as property, so the numbers are thought to be conservative.

"This new report focuses our attention on a huge 'black hole' in the world economy that has never before been measured - private offshore wealth, and the vast amounts of untaxed income that it produces," said Henry.

The study drew on data from the World Bank, the IMF, the United Nations, central banks, the Bank for International Settlements and national treasures.

* * *

Henry's also hinted that the banking sector itself was to blame. The so-called offshore sector specializing in tax dodging, said Henry, "is designed and operated, not by shady no-name banks located in sultry islands, but by the world's largest private banks, law firms and accounting firms."

The study reveals that the top three banks handling the most offshore assets are UBS, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs.

See 1Timothy 6:10.

China Moves to Extends Its Control Over South China Sea

A couple of news items caught my eye on the issue of China and its claims to the islands and waters of the South China Sea. First:

The People’s Liberation Army, China’s central military authority, has approved the deployment of a military garrison in the newly declared Sansha City in the sparsely populated West Philippine Sea, said a report posted on China’s Ministry of National Defense website.

China's announcement is just the latest in a series of recent actions that have expanded its physical presence in the vast disputed waters and defied condemnation around the region.

The report said that the military garrison will be “responsible for managing the city’s national defense mobilization, military reserves and military operations.”

The Chinese defense ministry likewise said that military troops to be sent to the newly established garrison will be under the dual leadership of Hainan province’s military sub-command and Sansha City’s civilian leaders.

China had envisioned Sansha City as administering the West Philippine Sea including the Spratly Islands.

The announcement came despite a diplomatic protest lodged by the Philippines against China over the establishment of Sansha City.

The Philippine protest said that “the extent of the jurisdiction of the city violates Philippine territorial sovereignty over the Kalayaan Island Group and Bajo de Masinloc and infringes on Philippine sovereign rights over the waters and continental shelf of the West Philippine Sea.”

Aside from the Spratly Islands, Sansha City—which was established by the Chinese Cabinet last June 21—also claims political sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and Macclesfield Bank.

Portions of these territories are also being claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines.

(Full story here).

Second, in a poke to the Philippines' eye, figuratively speaking, China has sent a fleet of 30 fishing vessels to the contested Spratly Islands, including two government vessels for supplies and security. (See stories here and here).

A Not-So-Peaceful Transition in North Korea

Apparently, not everything is perfect in that worker's paradise called North Korea. From yesterday's Daily Mail:

Dozens of North Korean soldiers are reported to have been killed in a fierce internal gun battle following the removal from office of army chief Ri Yong-Ho.

Bullets smashed into nearby buildings as government soldiers and personal guards of the popular military chief turned on each other in an unprecedented affray in the secretive Stalinist country.

Reports of the gun battle emerged in South Korea today as the North’s state television showed hundreds of uniformed soldiers literally dancing in the streets as they celebrated the elevation of Kim Jong-Un to the role of Supreme Leader and head of the nation’s military.

It has not been established whether Mr Ri was injured or killed in the gun battle, which has been totally ignored by state television.

Celebrations for Kim’s appointment as head of the military are the main focus of news from the capital, Pyongyang.

But one source was quoted as saying that ‘we cannot rule out the possibility that Ri was badly injured or even died during the firefight when his guards possibly tried to protect him.’

Exactly why Mr Ri was removed from the high office remains unclear, even though the North Korean regime insisted that he had been allowed to step down due to illness.

In South Korea, analysts said they had no doubt that Mr Ri had been sacked and might even have had to be physically removed from office.

CALPERS Only Earns One Percent Return

Sucks to be a California taxpayer:

The nation's largest public pension fund collected a dismal 1 percent annual return on its investments, a figure far short of projections that will likely bring pressure on California's state and local governments to contribute more money, officials said Monday.

The return reported by the California Public Employees' Retirement System was well below its projected return of 7.5 percent for the fiscal year that ended June 30 and is prompting administrators to consider changes to investment strategies.

The investment returns are critical because taxpayers are on the hook for the difference if the pension funds fail to meet their performance targets.

(Full story here).

Whooping Caugh Outbreak Worst Since 1959

The CDC is stating that this year's whooping cough outbreak is the worst since 1959. From the Daily Mail:

Nearly 18,000 cases have been reported so far - more than twice the number seen at this point last year.

At this pace, the number of whooping cough cases will surpass every year since 1959.

* * *

Health officials attributed the rise in whooping cough to the cyclical nature of the disease where the number of reported cases hits a peak every three to five years.

'The cyclical nature of the disease is really something we don't completely understand, but it seems to happen in all states across the nation,' health department spokesman Peter Constantakes told Reuters.

Other factors include families who choose not to vaccinate their children and the fact that many teens and adults who have not been immunized catch the cough but ignore it and pass it on.

Whooping cough, or pertussis, is a highly contagious bacterial disease.

The whooping cough often begins with cold-like symptoms like sneezing, a runny nose, or a fever and is accompanied by a mild cough that becomes more severe in the first or second week.

Coughing fits are often followed by a high-pitched whoop, giving the illness its name.

In rare cases it can be fatal, and nine children have died so far this year.

More on the Colorado Shooting (and tips on surviving an active shooter)

Fox News seems to have a fairly complete and succinct report on what is known (without the speculation on some other pages):

Authorities plan to enter the booby- trapped apartment of the suspect in the deadly shooting spree at an Aurora, Colo., movie theater Saturday.

The suspect, James Holmes is accused of going on a shooting rampage at the movie theater during Friday’s midnight showing of “The Dark Knight Rises.” He was packing as many as 6,000 rounds of ammunition with the ability to shoot up to 50 a minute, police said.

Holmes’ apartment is believed to be loaded with explosives. Attempts to enter the apartment Friday were unsuccessful and police postponed efforts until Saturday. The FBI, ATF and local authorities are working together to enter the apartment.

Sgt. Cassidy Carlson of the Aurora Police Dept. said that authorities have broken the mission down into three phases and plan to carry them out throughout Saturday.

"There are still unknowns, we're not exactly sure of everything that's in there," Sgt. Carlson said. The unknown includes jars that are believed to contain accelerates.

The first phase will be to render the area safe and address the immediate threat of the wire trip booby trap, which may include a controlled detonation. The public has been warned that parts of these phases may cause loud booms and have planned for reverse 911 calls for the area so that the public may remain informed.

Authorities say they will send a robot into the apartment.

The second phase will be to dispose of the aerial shells which will include placing the devices into sand trucks and taken to a disposal site for a controlled detonation. Authorities believe there may be up to as many as 30 shells.

The third phase will be the investigation of the apartment itself.

"There is no timeline, I can't give you an end time," Sgt. Carlson said. "We don't need to rush anything," she said.

Relatives of two of the twelve dead confirmed late Friday that their loved ones were killed during the midnight showing of "The Dark Knight Rises."

The family of Alex Sullivan issued a statement confirming his death. He died on his 27th birthday.

Twenty-three-year-old Micayla Medek was also among the dead.

Her father's cousin, Anita Busch, says the sad news at least brought peace to the family.

The brother of Jessica Ghawi previously confirmed his sister's death.

"He looked like an assassin ready to go to war," said Jordan Crofter, a moviegoer who was unhurt in the attack early Friday, about a half-hour after the special midnight opening of "The Dark Knight Rises."

Holmes, used a military-style semi-automatic rifle, a shotgun and a pistol, stopping only to reload.

The suspect marched up the aisle in the stadium-style theater, picking off those who tried to flee, witnesses said. Authorities said he hit scores of people, with a few of the 70 victims suffering their injuries not by gunfire but in the ensuing chaos. At least one person was struck in an adjacent theater by gunfire that went through the wall.

"He would reload and shoot and anyone who would try to leave would just get killed," said Jennifer Seeger, adding that bullet casings landed on her head and burned her forehead.

Within minutes, frantic emergency services calls brought some 200 police officers, ambulances and emergency crews to the theater. Holmes was captured in the parking lot and remains in police custody. Police said they later found that his nearby apartment was booby-trapped.

Authorities gave no motive for the attack. The FBI said there was no indication of ties to any terrorist groups.

Scene of Colorado Shooting Banned Firearms

The Truth About Firearms blog is reporting that the movie chain where the Colorado shooting occurred--a Cinemark theater--had a policy of prohibiting anyone but law enforcement from carrying a firearm. In other words, they disarmed the very type of people that could have stopped this tragedy.

Is Syria's Government on the Ropes?

Yesterday saw the rebels launch an attack against Damascus, while a suicide bomber killed several high ranking military and security officials, including Pres. Assad's brother-in-law. Now, it appears that Pres. Assad may have fled to the coast, while his wife is rumored to have fled to Russia. First, the Telegraph reports:

Opposition sources and a Western diplomat stated Mr Assad was in the coastal city of Latakia, directing the response to the assassination of his top lieutenants, according to Reuters.

Mr Assad, who has not made a public appearance since Wednesday's bombing, was said to be commanding the government operation but it was not clear whether Assad travelled to the Mediterranean Sea resort before or after the attack.

"Our information is that he is at his palace in Latakia and that he may have been there for days," said a senior opposition figure, who declined to be named.

David Cameron, the prime minister called on Mr Assad to give up power to avert more chaos and bloodshed. Speaking during a visit to Afghanistan, Mr Cameron said: "I have a very clear message for President Assad. It is time for him to go.

"It is time for transition in the regime. If there isn't transition it's quite clear there's going to be civil war."

Gen Daoud Rajha, the defence minister, Gen Hassan Turkmani, assistant to the vice-president and head of the crisis cell, and Assef Shawkat, the husband of Mr Assad's sister have been confirmed as casualties of the attack and a number of other senior leaders were injured.

Major Gen Robert Mood, head of the UN monitoring mission, warned that the violence was spiralling, as President Assad appeared to have gone to ground.

Security forces loyal to President Assad pounded rebel hideouts in Damascus on Thursday in retaliatory attacks for the blast that killed three top anti-insurgency leaders.

Hundreds fled Damascus flashpoint districts amid a surge of fighting following a bomb attack which killed three security chiefs, as residents reported shops closed and food shortages.

The troops used helicopters and heavy artillery against the rebels, while snipers took up positions on rooftops on the outskirts of the city, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. "Explosions are heard throughout the capital," it said.

The Daily Mail reports:

Syria's embattled president and his British-born wife have fled the capital Damascus after rebels killed three of his top security chiefs in a devastating bomb attack, it was claimed today.

Bashar al-Assad is believed to be in the coastal city of Latakia, directing a response to yesterday's attack which killed his brother-in-law and two other members of his inner circle.

Rumours that his wife Asma, who grew up in London, has fled to Russia swirled around Damascus, where pro-government forces today fought back against an all-out rebel offensive.

There were signs today that the 16-month uprising had reached a potentially pivotal stage, with soldiers apparently defecting en masse.

But anti-regime activists said that government forces had begun shelling neighbourhoods in and around the capital in response to the suicide bomb attack.

More than 200 people, mostly civilians, were killed in violence across the country yesterday, including 38 in Damascus, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

We may see a repeat of Iraq and Libya, where large stores of chemical weapons have gone missing. From the Daily Mail article cited above:

Leon Panetta, US defence secretary, warned the Assad regime that it would be responsible for anything that happened to the country's chemical weapons.

He said: ‘What we may be about to witness is the collapse of a heavily militarised Middle Eastern state with a huge stock of conventional and chemical weapons.’

This AFP article similarly contains a warning from King Abdullah II of Jordan:

The king of Jordan warned Wednesday that his northern neighbor Syria was on the brink of all-out civil war and that in a worst-case scenario, chemical weapons could fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda.

I suspect that we are past the point of no-return unless Syria gets a substantial amount of aid (including troops) from Russia or some other ally. And, as has happened too often in the past two decades, the collapse will of the Syrian regime will produce true civil war as tribes, religious, and ethnic groups all turn on each other. It may be years before stability returns to the country.

Signs of the Apocalypse--15 Weird Animal Invasions.

"And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them ... to kill with ... the beasts of the earth." Rev. 6:8.

Actually, this is more in the line of the humor department. Outdoor Life has put together a slide show of 15 unusual animal incidents and invasions.

FerFal -- 5 "Awkward" Items to Have in a Survival Kit

Interesting article from FerFal's blog on why to include condoms, tampons, an emery board, pantyhose, and breast milk bags in a wilderness survival or bug out kit.

Is the LIBOR Scandal the Tip of the Iceberg?

The LIBOR scandal--involving the fixing and manipulation of interbank interest rates--may just be the tip of the iceberg. According to this report at The Telegraph, oil prices may have also been manipulated.

Concerns are growing about the reliability of oil prices, after a report for the G20 found the market is wide open to “manipulation or distortion”.

Traders from banks, oil companies or hedge funds have an “incentive” to distort the market and are likely to try to report false prices, it said.

Politicians and fuel campaigners last night urged the Government to expand its inquiry into the Libor scandal to see whether oil prices have also been falsely pushed up.

They warned any efforts to rig the oil price would affect how much drivers pay at the pump, which soared to a record high of 137p per litre of unleaded earlier this year.

Robert Halfon, who led a group of 100 MPs calling for lower fuel prices, said the matter “needs to be looked at by the Bank of England urgently”.

“We need to know whether the oil price has been manipulated in a similar way to Libor,” the MP for Harlow said. “This impacts on millions of people all round the country concerned about the price of petrol at the pumps.”

Petrol retailers use oil price “benchmarks” to decide how much to pay for future supplies.

The rate is calculated by data companies based on submissions from firms which trade oil on a daily basis – such as banks, hedge funds and energy companies.

However, like Libor – the interest rate measure that Barclays was earlier this month found to have rigged – the market is unregulated and relies on the honesty of the firms to submit accurate data about all their trades.

Just a few thoughts on this. First of all, since the Bank of England has been implicated in the LIBOR scandal, it doesn't make any sense to let it head up an investigation into other conspiracies to fix prices. Sort of like placing the fox in charge of the hen house.

Second, of course oil prices are rigged--that is the whole reason OPEC exists.

Third, I am suspicious of any government's motives here. Our own president vowed to raise energy prices, and pursued a vendetta against oil production. At first blush, the proposal of this story seems to be nothing more than an attempt to distract everyone from the LIBOR scandal, while giving governments more direct control over petroleum prices, to our detriment, I think.

U.S. Already In Recession

I hadn't really noticed that we were out of the last recession, but The Telegraph reports that the U.S. has already slid into another recession:

Output slowed to stall speed over the winter. The US economy tipped into outright contraction in the second quarter, even before facing the "fiscal cliff" later this year – tightening of $600bn or 4pc of GDP unless action is taken to stop it.

Nothing serious is yet being done to head off the downward slide. If ECRI is right, the implications for the global system are ugly.

It is never easy to read the signals at inflexion points. Washington is always caught off guard. As ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan says, it took the Lehman collapse ten months into recession in September 2008 to "wake people up".

What we know is that retail sales rolled over in February and broader trade sales peaked in December. Industrial output peaked in April. The nationwide ISM index of manufacturing crashed through the break-even line of 50 in June, just as it did at the onset of the Great Recession in late 2007, but this time at a faster pace.

Job growth has slumped to 75,000 a month over the last three months, too low to stop unemployment rising again to 8.2pc, or 14.9pc on the wider U6 measure.

Albert Edwards from Societe Generale expects the US economy to shrink 2pc this year, leading to a 40pc fall in profits. He says the S&P 500 index of stocks will ultimately plumb fresh secular depths, below the 666 bottom of March 2009.

* * *

Book Review -- When All Hell Breaks Loose

Book: When All Hell Breaks Loose--Stuff You Need to Survive When Disaster Strikes by Cody Lundin. (Amazon link). 450 pp., illustrated.

Overview: This book is about surviving post-disaster (i.e., it doesn't tell you what to do in the event of an earthquake or typhoon, but what to do afterward) for an extended period of time--one week to several months.

The book is divided into two basic parts: "Head candy"--dealing with the psychological and emotional aspects of survival, as well as some high level planning issues such as how much do you need for survival and for how long.

The second part, "Hand Candy" discusses the nuts and bolts of different survival skills and preparations. These include: shelter, water (storing, collecting and purifying), food, emergency sanitation, hygiene, lighting, cooking, first-aid, "sensible" self defense, communications, transportation, and whether to stay in place or evacuate.

Impression: I think this is the best and most important survival book that I own. As I had discussed in an earlier review, "survival" books often fall into different categories, ranging from pure wilderness or outdoor survival to what to do after the collapse of civilization. The outdoor survival book focuses on what to do when you are cut off from civilization with nothing more than a knife and string. The TEOTWAWKI survival books are, almost universally, intended for someone who is willing to move to a remote area and set up an independent, off-grid, homestead. The problem is in the middle--those people whose jobs (or other issues) prevent them from moving to BFE and/or expect a major disaster that may take weeks or months before normalcy returns, but not the complete collapse of civilization. That is, something major such as Katrina, the Haiti earthquake, the earthquake in Japan, or the mythical "big one" that will eventually hit California. This is where When All Hell Breaks Loose fits in.

It largely assumes that you will be staying in your house. Do you have emergency supplies of food and water stored away? Great! It will tell you how to gather those items, store them, and use them after a major disaster. And if you don't have those items, it will tell you how to scavenge your food and water and prepare them for safe eating; and how to improvise shelter and insulation. And what if some of your neighbors or, God forbid, your loved one's don't make it. He also discusses how to dispose of dead bodies, but document the death to (hopefully) the satisfaction of the authorities.

Now, I've read some other books on disaster preparation that are as dry as dirt in a desert. One thing I like about this book is that it includes some great quotes, and "illustrates" its principles with historical incidences of disaster, as well as the Mr. Lundin's personal experiences with using the techniques. In other words, it's readable.

As a counter example, several months ago I purchased Handbook to Practical Disaster Preparedness for the Family (I have the Second Edition, but apparently the 3rd Edition was released in May). It's a great book, filling essentially the same niche as When All Hell Breaks Loose, full of useful information and a great survival references. But it is also about as readable as an encyclopedia.

Finally, I like that Lundin not only explains what to do, but also why. 

Notable Points: It's hard to pick out just a few notable points in a book this good, but I will try.

One thing that I only appreciated after I had finished the book was the "Head Candy" section. Lundin spends a considerable amount of the book (some 83 pages) discussing the psychological and emotional issues with preparing and surviving a disaster. Not just stress and fear (although these are important issues), but also working with other people and adopting an "I can" attitude.

Lundin's discussion of water storage and purification is probably one of the best and most complete I've ever read and includes tips and information on solar purification that I've never seen anywhere else. The book is worth it just for this one topic.

If you have watched Lundin in Dual Survival on the Discovery Channel, you know that he is very much a hygiene "freak." However, I think the emphasis on hygiene, including tips on how to wipe your butt when you've run out of toilet paper, is critical given that dysentery is such a killer.

One of the most interesting chapters of the book to me was the book on self defense. Unlike many books, Lundin doesn't skip over this topic--he knows you may have to protect yourself from looters or gangs. However, he also recognized that he lacks the skills to discuss the topic. So, this is the one chapter that essentially consists of an interview with a self-defense expert. While I don't completely agree with the "expert," I appreciate Lundin's intellectual honesty in admitting he lacked the expertise in this one area--and it raises my respect and faith in his knowledge in the other areas discussed in the book.

In short, it is a great book and, I believe, a must- have for a survival reference.

Floods in Japan

While the U.S. is suffering through drought, Japan is experiencing record rainfall:

It's a race against time for rescuers as they desperately search for people buried after heavy rain caused mudslides that have already claimed 20 lives in south western Japan.

The torrential rain continued to fall as police, firefighters and troops dug through mud and rubble with shovels after ‘unprecedented’ downpours swamped whole neighbourhoods yesterday.

Television footage showed torrents of muddy water carrying uprooted trees and other debris in a violent deluge, while rivers burst their banks and flooded towns and villages in Kyushu, the southern island of Japan.

* * *

In the city of Aso in Kumamoto Prefecture, central Kyushu, landslides buried at least 17 households, killing 19 people with six more still missing, local officials said.

Kumamoto prefectural official Yushin Maekawa said: ‘We will keep searching for the missing throughout the night, while urging our citizens to stand guard as heavy rain continues sporadically.’

More than 250 households were told to evacuate, while everyone living on the floodplain of the Shirakawa River in Kumamoto City was advised to get to safety.

One thing I want to emphasize is that there is nothing particularly special about the number of natural disasters we are having now, other than, because of the larger and denser populations, more people are impacted. Natural disasters have always happened. But that is the point for preppers. Floods and other disasters may occur at any time. Some, like high temperatures and drought, riots and financial upheaval, can be weathered in your home, while others such as wildfires and floods may require you to leave at a moments notice. Best be prepared for both possibilities.

Crime--It's Largely A Question Of Where You Are

I've read over the years that lifestyle choices, such as visiting bars and nightclubs, using drugs or abusing alcohol, and so on, are major factors in determining your risk of being a victim of a violent crime. The reason these are factors are because they put you into situations or places where crimes are likely to happen. To emphasize the latter point, I came across the following in an article on "predictive policing":

. . . Crime does not randomly disperse through cities. For example, research has shown that half the crime in Seattle occurs on 4.5 percent of that city’s streets; just over 3 percent of street addresses and intersections generated half the crimes in Minneapolis; and 8 percent of street blocks accounted for 66 percent of robberies in Boston.

Researchers have developed two theories for why some areas are subject to higher rates of crime; near repeat theory and risk terrain modeling. Near repeat theory hypothesizes that once a particular location has been hit by a crime it is more likely nearby locations will be hit too. For example, studies have shown that burglaries are “contagious.” One study found that “houses within 200 meters of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks.” Why? Possibly because a successful burglary advertises similar vulnerabilities in other properties in a neighborhood.

Risk terrain modeling maps various risk factors to identify areas where crimes are more likely to occur. For example, Rutgers University computational criminologist Joel Caplan mapped for Irvington, New Jersey four crime risk factors correlated with shooting incidents. The risk factors were the locations of gang member residences, public bus stops, schools, and facilities like bars, clubs, fast food restaurants, and liquor stores. He found that “the likelihood of a shooting happening at particular 100-foot-by-100-foot places in Irvington during 2007 increases by 143 percent as each additional risk factor affects that place.”

In June, Brantingham and his colleagues published a study that applied Lotka-Volterra equations used by biologists for decades to determine the hunting ranges of animals in the wild to map the territories of street gangs [PDF]. Their model predicted that 59 percent of gang crimes would occur within two blocks of a border between two gangs and 87.5 percent would occur within about three blocks. When the researchers mapped more than 500 crimes attributed to 13 gangs in a specific area of Los Angeles, they found in fact that 58 percent and 83 percent occurred within two blocks and three blocks of a border respectively.

"You would think that we're more complicated than other animals, so a model this simplistic shouldn't work, but I was surprised that it fit as well as it did," said study co-author Martin Short, an assistant adjunct professor of mathematics at UCLA in Wired UK. This research may eventually be used to identify zones to be more intensively patrolled by police with the goal of disrupting assaults and murders perpetrated by gangs.

China's Economy Continues to Slow--May Be Facing Deflation

Walter Russell Mead notes a couple news stories--one from the New Yorker and the other from the New York Times--reporting continued declines in demand for Chinese products and falling consumer prices in China. The latter should be particularly concerning because it could turn into full-fledged deflation. It also has implications for political and social stability in China:

Via Meadia is less concerned about a temporary Chinese slowdown, whether the landing is “hard” or “soft” than we are about the prospect for a phase change in Chinese growth — a secular slowdown in growth as the Japan-style export led strategy reaches natural limits. But the shrot term fate of China’s economy has a lot of influence over what happens in the rest of the world given our shaky circumstances right now. And China watcher Evan Osnos offers some sobering observations in the New Yorker:

Already, Nike says that its Chinese stockrooms are piling up with inventory. Similar complaints are coming in from McDonald’s, Caterpillar, and Procter & Gamble Co. Within China, the stakes of a slowdown are high as well: for half a century, political scientists have recognized that political unrest does not tend to erupt in places that are most deprived; it hits when a pattern of rising growth and expectations abruptly stops.

Read the whole thing. (H/t Instapundit).

Continuing Tensions Over the South China Sea

It's been awhile since I posted about the tensions between China and its neighbors over the South China Sea, generally, and more particularly between the Philippines and China. However, the tensions are still there, and perhaps growing. The Telegraph reports:

Around 200 protesters marched through the centre of Hanoi on Sunday waving banners and chanting "Paracels -Vietnam, Spratlys-Vietnam".

Although security forces blocked the demonstration when it came within 300 feet of the Chinese embassy, the fact that the protest was allowed to go ahead in authoritarian Vietnam indicates how relations between Hanoi and Beijing have deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks.

Last month, Hanoi passed legislation designating both the Paracels and Spratlys as part of Vietnam. Beijing responded by allowing the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation to call for bids to explore for oil in the disputed waters, a decision which prompted a smaller anti-China rally in Hanoi last Sunday.

China claims much of the oil and natural gas-rich South China Sea as its own, and is now involved in territorial disputes over the waters with a number of its neighbours in southeast Asia. Beijing's efforts to assert its dominance over the South China Sea is believed to be behind Washington's decision to move 60 per cent of its navy to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020.

Summer Already Over?

As much of the U.S. weathers record high temperatures, the U.K. is experiencing one of the wettest and coldest summers on record. From the Daily Express:

BRITAIN is facing its “worst ever” summer with cold wet weather ruining family holidays and blighting the Olympics, forecasters warned last night.

August is set to be a washout following a miserable July and the wettest June since records began – meaning summer is effectively over.

Gloomy forecasts suggest dire weather will continue as officials last night put Britain on flood alert after torrential downpours yesterday wreaked havoc.

As the Environment Agency warned of a “potential danger to life” with rivers swelling to breaking point in the Midlands, Yorkshire and Wales, Government forecasters were on standby to brief the Cabinet if severe floods strike.

The agency last night issued 51 flood warnings – meaning flooding is expected – and 135 alerts. Monsoon-like downpours hit 85,000 music fans at the T In The Park festival in Kinross, Scotland, and 28,000 Formula 1 spectators camping for the British Grand Prix weekend at Silverstone. Race meetings today in Nottingham and Carlisle were cancelled while play was delayed on all courts at Wimbledon – other than Centre Court.

In Leeds, organisers cancelled music festival MFEST over safety concerns.

Emergency services reported a surge of flood callouts, dispatched special operations teams and told motorists not to drive through floodwater.

The misery is set to continue with parts of the Midlands and northern Britain braced for six inches of rain – more than two months’ worth – in the 72 hours to tomorrow night.

(H/t Instapundit). Glenn Reynolds notes: "Brits can comfort themselves with the knowledge that what they’re experiencing is merely variable weather, while the United States is experiencing climate change." Ha.


I would note that the cold, rainy weather isn't just limited to England. There is also this report about the flooding in Southern Russia.

Map of Every Earthquake Since 1898

(Source: The Daily-Mail).

The False Prophet

The Lord has warned us that there would be false Christs and false prophets. See, e.g. Matthew 24:24 and Luke 21:8. However, Revelations discusses a particular False Prophet and Anti-Christ (i.e., a False Christ).


Joel Richardson has postulated that the False Prophet and Anti-Christ will arise from and be part of the Islamic belief system. I won't go into detail into his reasoning, but would note that it is not just based on Christian scriptures, but also on Muslim end-time scriptures and beliefs. Essentially, however, he indicates that Islam foretells a final apocalyptic confrontation between Islam and Jews and Christians, where Muslims will be led by a returning Jesus (Isa) and the Mahdi. In his book, Anti-Christ--Islam's Awaited Messiah, Richardson describes Isa as fulfilling the role of the False Prophet in Revelations, while the Mahdi fulfills the role of the Anti-Christ. (Although I have not read them, I would note that Richardson has updated his thesis in a couple subsequent books, including one published this year according to Amazon).

Richardson acknowledges some potential problems with his thesis, including that the Anti-Christ "religious system" will require worship of the Mahdi and worship of the image of the Mahdi, but that Islam presently forbids the worship of any man or the use of images. So, is Richardson's basic thesis wrong, or is there some way to reconcile it? In his book noted above, Richardson suggests that by the time the Anti-Christ demands worship, Islam will have so much invested in him as the Mahdi that Islamic leaders will not be in a position to repudiate him.

I would suggest that, perhaps, Islam may undergo a fundamental transformation that would make it more amenable to alternate methods or modes of worship. We know from recent experience that Islam is malleable because of the spread of Wahhabism over the last several decades. However, Wahhabism is proving to be an embarrassing failure. Some of its strictest adherents--the Taliban and Al Queda --have suffered excruciating defeat at the hands of the West, and alienated the local populations in many areas, including Iraq. When the "Arab Spring" results in further disasters and wide-spread starvation, will Muslims continue to follow the hyper-conservative sect on the path to self-destruction, or will something else offer itself?

One of the more interesting Muslim sects and religious leaders arose in Turkey. In his book, How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too), David Goldman notes:

Some American analysts, for example the American Enterprise Institute's Michael Rubin, warn that Turkey may be headed toward an Iranian-style Islamic revolution, and point to the huge influence of the Islamic spiritual leader Fethullah Gulen in Erdogan's Turkey.

Further:

Gulen now helps set the political agenda in Turkey using his followers in the AKP as well as the movement's vast media empire, financial institutions and banks, business organizations, an international network of thousands of schools, universities, student residences ..., and many associations and foundations. He is a financial heavyweight, controlling an unregulated and opaque budget estimated at $25 billion. It is not clear whether the Fethullahist cemaat (community) supports the AKP or is the ruling force behind the AKP. Either way, however, the effect is the same.

Goldman suggests that Gulen is mad, at least by Western standards:

When he speaks about the virtues of science, Gulen means something entirely different from what Westerners do. This "imam from rural Anatolia," as his website describes him, inhabits a magical world of jinns and sorcery. Science is just a powerful form of magic of which Turks would avail themselves to enhance their power....

... Science for Gulen means simply the management of jinn. Gulen, in short, is a shaman, a relic of pre-history fixed in the cultural amber of central Anatolia.

While I'm not suggesting that Gulen is the False Prophet, I am suggesting that his brand of Islam, incorporating jinn and angels, and suggesting that they can be used to advance the cause of Islam, is a form of Islam that may be more amenable to the false miracles and alternative forms of  worship than other sects of Islam. Therefore, it is worth taking note of and watching.

Last Chance to Check for DNSChanger

Technology Review reminds us that, as of Monday, if your computer is infected with DNSChanger, you will not be able to connect to the Internet.

Hundreds of thousands of people are likely to be confused on Monday when they fire up their home or office computers and can't connect to the Internet. Their network connections will be fine, but attempts to visit their favorite domains will be fruitless.

These people will be the unfortunate leftover victims of the DNSChanger botnet. Between 2007 and October of last year, the DNSChanger virus infected four million computers in 100 countries, according to the FBI. Often without the victims' knowledge, the computers were turned into drones that were instructed by rogue servers to visit websites and click on ads in a scheme to generate fraudulent advertising revenue.

You can check your computer by going here.  If your computer is infected, this site has information on fixing it.

China's Colonization of Africa

This is from a larger news report about a "ghost town" built just outside Luanda, Angola, by a Chinese Corporation in exchange for oil rights--the town is deserted because the locals can't afford to buy any of the properties. (But you can be sure the local politicians received plenty of bribes).

China's push into Africa is said to be reminiscent of the West's imperial move in the 18th and 19th centuries - but on a much more dramatic, determined scale.

China's rulers believe Africa can become a 'satellite' state, solving its own problems of over-population and shortage of natural resources at a stroke.

With little fanfare, a staggering 750,000 Chinese have settled in Africa over the past decade. And more are believed to be on their way.

The strategy has been carefully devised by officials in Beijing, where one expert has estimated that China will eventually need to send 300million people to Africa to solve the problems of over-population and pollution.

The plans appear on track. Across Africa, the red flag of China is flying. Lucrative deals are being struck to buy its commodities - oil, platinum, gold and minerals.

New embassies and air routes are opening up. The continent's new Chinese elite can be seen everywhere, shopping at their own expensive boutiques, driving Mercedes and BMW limousines, sending their children to exclusive private schools.

The pot-holed roads are cluttered with Chinese buses, taking people to markets filled with cheap Chinese goods. More than a thousand miles of new Chinese railroads are crisscrossing the continent, carrying billions of tons of illegally-logged timber, diamonds and gold.

Apache Eliminating Taliban

Another lesson why, with FLIR, you can run, but you will only die tired.

The 110 Best DIY Tips Ever

Popular Mechanics has posted a "slide-show" of the top 110 do-it-yourself tips from past issues of the magazine. Many of the tips concern recycling or reusing old materials or equipment.

China's Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Again

From the Telegraph:

But while all eyes were focused on the Bank of England's monetary mumbo jumbo, and the parallel rate cut by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, much more significant central bank action was taking place on the other side of the world – the People's Bank of China cut rates in the world's second largest economy for the second time this year. This was quite unexpected and shows that Chinese policymakers have become seriously rattled by the evident slowdown in their economy.

China is a big place – a statement of the bleedin obvious if ever there was one – and economic performance across the country has always been extremely varied. Think how divergent it can be in Europe and America – with some regions growing fast and others in depression – and magnify it a couple of times for China. As a whole, the economy is still growing fast by European and American standards, but for China, which needs to create tens of millions of jobs a year to keep pace with rapid urbanisation, it's not nearly fast enough.

Some parts of the more developed eastern seaboard may already be starting to suffer from the same sort of boom to bust dynamics that has engulfed advanced economies. Excessive credit expansion, over development, and an overheated property market – all these things are now coming home to roost. The standard view is that the Chinese authorities are well placed to counter the growing list of negatives, but I wonder.

The banking system is shot through with unrecognised bad debt, once buoyant Western export markets are in ragged retreat, and just how much more investment can the Chinese economy take before knocking up against already manifest levels of industrial overcapacity?

Even in a centrally directed economy, it's not possible to sweep these problems under the carpet for ever. The chances of a hard landing already look quite high.

Over the short term, this isn't good for anyone. A China that finds itself in the economic doldrums won't be able to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, nor help Europe with its financial problems (although even that, I suspect, is beyond anyone's ability).

On Crutches

I have a cautionary tale to tell. At a church picnic the other day, I decided to participate in a foot race. Trying to put in an extra burst of speed, I suddenly felt my muscles tighten up in one leg and felt a "pop." I immediately lost all support and fell. Afterwards, I was hardly able to hobble around. The doctor told me that I had probably torn a hamstring muscle and it might take up to a month to heal. After getting home, I was able to use a hiking stick to move around until my wife picked up some crutches.

In a survival situation, even if you are at home or in a retreat, such a situation could be serious, or even deadly. Mobility, even limited mobility, is better than nothing. And frankly, when you need them, there is nothing that can substitute for a pair of adjustable crutches with the appropriate padding when you suffer an incapacitating leg or foot injury.

Since our normal pharmacy which we use (which rents crutches) was closed, we ended up at a Walgreen's and having to buy a pair. The cost was very reasonable--about $42 for a fully adjustable set of aluminum crutches (plus $15 for a set of extra cushioning pads). You may want to throw a pair in with your other medical supplies--especially if you live in a more remote location. And don't forget the ibuprofen to help control swelling.

DIY Motorcycle

 A couple weeks ago, I posted about a man that had built a motorcycle out of the parts of his car after breaking down in the Sahara. Now for the rest of the story:

When Frenchman Emile Leray became stranded in a Moroccan desert [in 1993] with a badly damaged car, his ordeal was one which would have left most men helpless and desperate.

But after his Citroen car ground to a halt, the enterprising electrician would not be denied in his quest to find his way back to civilisation.

His amazing escape from the barren terrain saw Mr Leray singlehandedly rebuild his Citreon into a makeshift motorbike, in a dramatic escape which has seen him dubbed the most 'extreme' mechanic in the world.

* * *

The 43-year-old had been driving his Citroen 2CV across the desert from the Moroccan city of Tan-Tan.

However, along the way he was stopped at a military outpost and was informed that he couldn't go any further.

Faced with prospect of returning to Tan Tan, Emile decided instead to go off road to navigate around the restricted area.

Unfortunately the rocky and bumpy terrain soon caused problems and he lost control of his car before crashing into a rock.

The impact caused the Citroen's swing arm and wheel axle to snap - leaving the car undriveable.

With the nearest village at least 20 miles away, Emile didn't feel he would be able to make it on foot.

Luckily, he had a small cache of supplies, water for several days and a few tools, including a hacksaw.

After considering his options, Emile decided that his best course of action was to use parts from his car to create a makeshift motorbike.

Mr Leray told the Sunday Times: 'I wanted to do it off road because I had travelled round Africa about 10 times, so I knew the region well and therefore had no concerns.

'I decided to do it in a 2CV because, although it is not a 4x4, it is tough. In Africa they call it the ‘Steel Camel’ because it goes everywhere — provided you drive it gently. One must not be rough.

'I obviously was too rough because I broke it.

'I could not have gone back on foot — it was too far. I put myself in what one calls survival mode. I ate less; I monitored my supplies of water and of food to make them last as long as possible.'

He started by removing the Citroen's body, which he then used as a shelter to sleep under.

To build the bike he shortened the car's chassis before reattaching the axles and two of the wheels, as well as installing the engine and gearbox in the middle.

He had thought that it would take him just a few days to construct the motorcycle, but in the end it took 12.

Eventually, however, it was complete and, with just half a litre of water left, Emile started his ride back to civilisation.

The going was easy and he regularly fell off the seat, which was made from part of the car's rear bumper.

After a day of riding Emile was picked up by the Moroccan police who drove him to the nearest village.

They also handed him a hefty fine because the registration documents for his car no longer corresponded to what he was driving.

Read the whole thing (also, many more photographs).

Special Forces Jeep Wrangler

This looks like it would make a good bug-out vehicle (BOV) ;-).

Defense Tech reports:

The Jeeps feature seats U.S. soldiers should recognize. Jankel’s has installed their blast limiting attenuation seats into vehicles like the Oshkosh Mine Resistant Ambush Protected All Terrain Vehicle the U.S. Army drives in Afghanistan.

The special forces variant called the Pegasus is the sexiest member of the family. ...

Pegasus was built to load inside a CH-47 Chinook with the ability to unload it in 15 seconds. The Jeep is powered by a direct injection, common rail, turbo charged, intercooled diesel engine. The 24 volt electrical system features one NATO jump socket with two USB sockets.

Pegasus built the frame to fit inside the Chinook. The frame is 201 inches long, 79 inches wide, 72 inches tall with an 11 inch ground clearance. It has a curb weight of 6,610 pounds and a potential payload of 3,310 pounds.

The off road capabilities of the Pegasus have been beefed up to take on the stress of a special operations capability set. It can scale a 60% gradient and a 40% side slope with the driver only.

Pegasus can carry four special operators and maybe a fifth in a pinch. Unit commanders can add an extended range fuel tank as well as underslung airlift solutions.

It is Unlikely that Obama Will Use Force Against Iran

From the Weekly Standard:

In an interview, veteran Democratic foreign policy insider Stuart Eizenstat admits that the Obama administration has not placed all options on the table for dealing with Iran. The Times of Israel reports:

Asked whether he could then envisage the United States, at the head of an international coalition, intervening militarily, Eizenstat said: “Well, I don’t want to say militarily. I want to say ‘intervene with other capabilities.’”

In other words, Eizenstat is saying that America will is not likely ever to use military action against Iran nuke program.

Of course not. Why nip the problem in the bud now when Obama can let things build up until a major war breaks out?

Will New Mexican Government Go Soft on Drug Cartels?

The Daily Mail reports:

Mexico's newly elected government could start negotiating with the country's brutal drug lords in a bid to buy peace, senior U.S. politicians have warned.

Enrique Pena Nieto's campaign team claimed victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday after exit polls showed him winning by a comfortable margin.

But critics have warned his victory could mark a softening of the country's war on drug cartels.

Pena Nieto, 45, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), had campaigned on switching authorities' efforts to reducing violence rather than smashing the drug lords.

Opponents fear the new government might now enter into talks with the cartels, thought to be responsible for 47,500 deaths so far.

Pena Nieto has repeatedly denied wanting to open up negotiations - though this has not assuaged fears among some senior U.S. politicians.

Republican Jim Sensenbrenner told a congressional hearing that he feared the history of Pena Nieto's party had a history of 'turning a blind eye to the cartels'.

He said: ‘While in power, the PRI minimized violence by turning a blind eye to the cartels,’ adding that Pena Nieto ‘does not emphasize stopping drug shipments or capturing kingpins’.

Taste Test of Dehydrated and Freeze Dried Foods

Over at the Preparedness Advice Blog, they conducted a taste test of dehydrated and freeze dried foods of different types and from various manufacturers. (Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3). They describe the test:

A panel of five people was chosen that were not overly familiar with any of the brands of food that were in the test. The panel met at one location and was given the foods without any information. They were not told either the product or brand. After tasting the products, they then scored them on a scale of one to ten. The foods were judged on four factors, taste, texture, appearance and an overall score. They were instructed to use five as a base line for average and if they varied from this to make comments as to why.

The panel tested fifty items and did a great job. As you read the results, you will see that on occasions there were great variations in the judging of a product by them. Most products received some good and bad reviews depending on the tastes of the individual panelist. Below you will find the list of individual items. They are divided into groups such as entree and dairy. Under the name of each item you will find the following information. The average score of all five panelists for taste, texture, appearance and overall. In addition, you will find calories per serving, sodium and a remarks section.

I don't recommend freeze dried foods for anything but an short term emergency supply (such as a bug-out bag) just because of the cost. However, I have used freeze dried food for camping/hunting trips. Its always good to get reviews of the different foods.

Massad Ayoob Discusses Barrel Length...

...at Backwoods Magazine.

Is Allah = Satan?

     This week, I want to return to the Anti-Christ may be Muslim (or related to Islam) theory from last week. First, some background. Last week I had posted about the identity of Gog and Magog, spurred by Joel Richardson's theory that the anti-Christ is Muslim (or, at least, derives his initial authority from Islam) and the nations under his rule represent a latter-day Caliphate empire. In this regard, Mr. Richardson specifically notes that the popular conception that Magog is Russia (or part of Russia) is wrong. He goes on to note that Biblical scholars place Magog in the heart of Turkey.

The question that Bereans and students of Bible prophecy must now ask ourselves is: Why is there such a radical discrepancy between Magog’s identification according to popular belief, and these various scholarly resources? Are the atlases and the many conservative scholars that created them all wrong? Or are the prophecy teachers wrong? How have the two groups arrived at such different conclusions?

The answer lies in the different methods of interpretation used by these two groups. Most conservative, trained scholars of the Bible use what is called the historical-grammatical method of interpretation. This is to say that they simply identify the names found within Ezekiel’s prophecy according to how Ezekiel himself would have understood them. Thus in the late seventh and early sixth century B.C. when Ezekiel prophesied, Magog, Meshech and Tubal were known to have dwelt in Asia Minor, or modern-day Turkey.

Far too many prophecy teachers use what I call the bloodline-migration method. This method of interpreting the names within prophecy attempt to trace the bloodlines, intermarrying and migration of the ancient peoples mentioned within a prophecy to link them to their modern-day descendants and the nations where they now live. But this method is fraught with problems, variables and inconsistencies. When using this method, five different teachers will, and usually do, arrive at five different conclusions. None uses this method consistently, with each interpreter stopping at random periods of history, whenever it may suits his view and provide the result desired. Because there is such an abundance of data out there, and a few millennia between the ancient prophecies and modern times, the data are easy to manipulate and mold to one’s own prophetic bias.

How to Survive High Heat Without Air Conditioner

A handful of articles on how to survive high heat:

1.  "11 Tips on How to Survive a Heat Wave Without Air Conditioning"

2.  "How to Survive a Heat Wave" from Wikihow.

3.  "How to Survive: Heat." Includes some first-aid tips.

4.  "5 Tips to Survive Extreme Heat" from CNN.

5.  From Goldenrod.net--"How to Survive the Summer Heat When the Power is Out."

6.  And Cloudmom has a video with some tips for pregnant women.

High Heat and Power Outages

It could be several more days before electricity is restored to areas hit by vicious storms that killed at least 13 people and left three million power customers to negotiate sweltering temperatures without air conditioning.

Massive storms sweeping across the Eastern U.S caused the deaths of two young cousins camping with their families in New Jersey after a tree fell on their tent.

Across a swath from Indiana to New Jersey and south to Virginia, officials warned the heat wave could take a toll on the elderly, young or sick.

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The storm that whipped through the region Friday night was called a derecho (duh-RAY'-choh) , a straight line wind system that sweeps over a large area at high speed.

The storm, which packed wind gusts of up to 90 mph, began in the Midwest, passed over the Appalachian Mountains and then drew new strength from a high pressure system as it hit the southeastern U.S., said Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Emergencies have been declared in Maryland, West Virginia, Ohio, the District of Columbia and Virginia, where Gov. Bob McDonnell said the state had its largest non-hurricane outage in history, as more storms threatened. 'This is a very dangerous situation,' the governor said.

Power officials said the outages wouldn't be repaired for several days to a week.

* * * 

In Washington's northern Virginia suburbs, emergency 911 call centers were out of service; residents were told to call local police and fire departments.

The story indicates that 13 people have died due to the storm. Fallen trees across a railroad track left Amtrack passengers stranded for 20 hours. Full story here.