British General Predicts that Argentina Will Attempt to Invade Falkands

From the Telegraph:

In one of the starkest warnings over the islands’ future sovereignty Major Gen Julian Thompson said once the reinforced garrison and naval presence disappears at the end of this year Buenos Aires will look to repeat its 1982 action.

“The Argentines could invade and seize the Falkland Islands again,” he said in a speech to the Royal United Services Institute, the respected military think tank.

The former Royal Marine disclosed that after the British Government was “alerted” by the Argentina president Cristina Kirchner “stoking the sovereignty fires” it discretely reinforced the Falklands garrison and naval presence.

This would make an invasion “highly unlikely” this year but “in a few years time however, when the fuss has died down, and the UK’s guard is lowered, an Argentine coup de main operation to take the airfield is perfectly attainable”.

With at least four RAF Typhoons stationed at Stanley airfield alongside 1,200 troops, equipped with radar, surface-to-air missiles and the Navy’s latest Type 45 destroyer in the area, a conventional attack would be difficult.

But military analysts have suggested that a lighting Argentine special forces raid could seize the airfield with just 200 troops hiding in a civilian aircraft.

“With no airfield, reinforcing the islands by air would be impossible, as would any form of air-lifted attempt at recovering them. The only way to take them back would be an amphibious assault as in 1982,” Major Gen Thompson said.