Monday, May 23, 2022

The Docent's Memo (May 23, 2022)

 

VIDEO: "The US Army’s new Service Rifle - The SIG SPEAR / NGSW XM5"--Garand Thumb (25 min.). He likes the rifle, very much, but toward the end of the video does complain of the heavy loadout and reduced amount of ammo that will be carried. Interestingly, as I've argued in private about, he suggests that maybe the military needs two service rifles: one for mountainous or open terrain (the XM5), and one for the rest of the world (the M4).

Firearms, Shooting & Self-Defense:

  • Be sure to check out the latest Weekend Knowledge Dump from Active Response Training. Greg has some articles and content dealing with, no surprise, surviving mass shootings/active shootings. Also, be sure to read through the article "25 Gunfighting Stats Learned From Convicted Cop Killers," and the one on how a full beard can save your jaw in a fist fight. 
  • "The Great Shooting Stance Feud." Sheriff Jim Wilson offers a tongue-in-cheek account of the feud over Weaver and Isosceles stances. 
  • "Concealed Carry Around the Clock: Understanding Waistband Positions." We often throw out terms like carrying a handgun at a 3 o'clock position, 5 o'clock position, and so on, but for someone new to guns, the terms might be confusing, I guess. Anyway, this article has a good explanation of what each is (for both right and left hand shooters) and a helpful diagram.
  • "Gunfighting and Neuroscience: Why Using Your Front Sight Might Kill You." The theory, backed up by research, is that when in a gunfight how well you see is more important than how well you shoot. Key to this success is what the author calls "the quiet eye." That is:
    ... the final fixation on a location that is within 3ᵒ of visual angle for a minimum of 100ms’ (Vickers, 1996). In simpler terms this is a fixed spot that your gaze lingers on prior to executing a task. It could be staring at the rim of a basketball hoop prior to a free throw, or looking at a suspect’s elbow prior to him presenting a firearm.

    The quiet eye phenomenon has been associated with expert ability for many years. No matter the area of sporting expertise, they find that the highest performers always exhibit longer and more consistent quiet eye duration. ...

He continues by discussing the phenomena in a shoot/no shoot situation:

    SWAT officers consistently gazed at areas where a weapon would appear. This allowed them to fixate on the object in the person’s hands for longer periods. This comparatively small difference gave their brain vital hundredths of seconds to determine if the scenario was shoot or no shoot.

    When researchers examined rookie officers they found they spent an inordinate amount of time looking at areas that tell you nothing. They looked at the assailant’s face, around the room, and amazingly, they closed their eyes completely before firing in half of the scenarios!

Turning back to the subject that is the title of the article, the author notes that prior to taking a shot, rookies looked at their sights 84% of the time compared to less than 25% of the time by SWAT team members. He explains:

    Remember that sights do not make you shoot accurately. They are mechanical devices that allow you to point a weapon with more precision. You can shoot accurately without sights! Cue angry boomer screeching.

    I want you to understand that I’m not telling you to avoid using sights. I’m trying to impart some nuance to this discussion. Sights allow you to verify your point of aim. Anyone with significant practice can point a firearm precisely, without focusing on sights. Check out this quick video from National Champion shooter Ben Stoeger.

    Ben is shooting a very hard partial target at 25 yards, while not focusing on his front sight. He is doing this because it is faster than looking at the target, looking at the front sight, looking at the rear sight, and then pressing the trigger. He is able to do this because he has millions of rounds and tens of thousands of hours of pistol practice under his belt. New shooters cannot and should not attempt this.

In other words, he is describing what old timers would probably term "point shooting" or "instinctive shooting." These methods were largely abandoned after the wide adoption of Jeff Cooper's "Modern Technique" which emphasized using both hands to hold the gun and using a "flash sight" method. 

I’ve been involved in a number of situations off-duty that had nothing to do with fighting and I had the proper state of mind to act instead of dither. I’ve helped traffic crash victims, found lost senior citizens, directed traffic until additional patrol units could arrive, pulled a drowning child from a pool, did CPR on a heart attack victim, treated a severe wound, talked to a suicidal subject and even cut away the trouser leg of a child whose pants got caught in an escalator. Yet with all of these situations, I never thought about my EDC carry gear being appropriate for anything other than armed conflict. A situation not too long ago, reaffirmed the need for everyone to be a potential first responder, to be ready for a wide variety of situations, whether cop or citizen, during the course of our everyday routine.

That situation was described in an news account he'd read about the rescue by passersby of three children stuck in a submerged vehicle. Cutting to the chase, Spaulding recommends the following minimum kit for EDC: a handgun (which was fired to break the window glass, although a glass breaker might be a safer choice for that particular task), flashlight, knife (or some other cutting tool), and a cell phone. 
  • "40 S&W: Dead Cartridge or Useful Round?" Much of the article is about the history of the cartridge, with the majority of that being a summary of the 1986 Miami shootout which led to the FBI's adoption of the 10mm which was subsequently modified to become the .40 S&W. I don't know about the dead part and neither does the author because she doesn't present any statistics on the extent of its current use and popularity, such as relative sales figures for ammunition and firearms in that caliber as compared to others. We can get somewhat of an idea of this from whether manufacturers continue to offer models in .40 S&W or release new models in .40 S&W. Just going through Shooting Illustrated's recent article on new handguns for 2022, and focusing on the semi-auto handguns, the vast majority of them are 9mm with .45 ACP coming second, and only two being offered in .40 S&W. Both of those are handguns more intended for the competition market than self-defense. I don't know if that is representative, but it is a data point. 
    The author indicates that the cartridge will probably remain popular with competitive pistol shooters and hunters. I know that .40 S&W is popular among those competitors shooting steel plate. I really haven't come across anything on-line or in person suggesting that hunters like the .40 S&W, although perhaps it is regional. I've long maintained, and still do, that the .40 S&W owed its popularity more to the 10-round magazine ban that was part of the 1994 AWB than any other factor, and that it was doomed as soon as the AWB expired. That's not to say that the cartridge will disappear, but that the number of manufacturers supporting the firearm will decline, and even among those that continue manufacturing .40 S&W pistols, new models will be rare.
    The XM5 weighs 8.38 pounds, or 9.84 pounds with the suppressor, much heavier than the 6.34-pound M4. That new rifle will also use 20-round magazines, smaller than the 30-round magazines troops currently use. A soldier's basic combat load will be seven of those 20-round magazines, a total of 140 rounds, weighing 9.8 pounds altogether.

    The M4's combat load, also seven magazines for a total of 210 rounds, is 7.4 pounds. In total, a rifleman with the XM5 will carry roughly four pounds more than today's M4 rifleman [but carry 70 rounds less].
At this writing, a review of 2022’s 143 mass shootings at the Gun Violence Archive proves that whites were only responsible for four, or about 2.8 percent of them [Mass Shootings In 2022] As with previous years, the data show, again, that black men are wildly overrepresented as mass shooting suspects, with Mexican and Central American suspects making up the rest. 

 

VIDEO: "May in China, the floods are back/Bamboo blossom and have fruits...More strange phenomena"--China Insights (17 min.). The strange phenomena is the sky turning blood red over several cities, which unfortunately is a sign in Chinese culture of severe famine or warfare. 

Prepping & Survival:

    The realization is hitting home for many people that the crises now hitting the United States are not simply one-off events. The infant formula outage, rising fuel prices, supply chain collapse, authoritarian censorship and now a wave of mass shootings over the weekend — they all point to the systemic collapse of western society as a whole.

    We are watching the downfall of western civilization as we know it.

    Having reached the age where gun store salesmen probably refer to me as an OFWG behind my back, I've become somewhat blasé about all of this. Part of it is because I'm old enough to remember the latter half of 1970s early 80s when the U.S. was beset with stagflation, gas and energy shortages, high crime rates, real domestic terrorists running around and blowing stuff up (all leftists, of course), international terrorism (of the communist kind--this was before Israel had strengthened jihadist groups in an effort to weaken the PLO), manufacturing being shifted offshore to countries like Japan and South Korea, a lousy president (you pick which one: Nixon, Ford, or Carter), and the humiliation of the Iranian hostage crises, ending with one of the worst recessions in American history (the result of the Fed having to raise interest rates to get inflation under control). Yet it was followed by what I believe is still the longest peace time economic expansions.

    So, just because things are getting worse right now does not necessarily mean that it will continue that way. On the other hand, I do believe that Western Civilization has been collapsing for at least the past 100 years, and the United States reached its zenith no later than 1968. I guess what I'm trying to say is that even if we are in a civilizational collapse, it does not mean that it will be a steady, slow decline, but that there will be peaks when things get a bit better.

    It also isn't impossible to reverse the trend. Augustus reversed the declines that had set in at the end of the Roman Republic by, in large part, re-establishing Roman religions and traditions. Classical civilization, tempered by Christianity, was recovering after the collapse of Western Roman Empire when the Islamic invasions snuffed it out. Europe recovered from the decline caused by the end of the Medieval Warming Period and the Black Plague and became a dynamic, assertive civilization.  

    Of course, it is not just Western Civilization in decline. The war between Russia and Ukraine shows us that the disintegration of the Soviet Empire continues. One would think that the British Empire had reached bottom, but the recent trip of Prince William through the Caribbean and the desire of several of the island nations to leave the Commonwealth shows that it, too, is still disintegrating. And, of course, China is about to hurtle off a cliff economically and politically. Our times more resemble the Bronze Age Collapse than the fall of the Roman Empire. But I would remind you that the Bronze Age Collapse, rapid as it was from a historic perspective, still played out over a 75 to 100 year period. 

VIDOE: "A Study of Decadence(When Societies Commit Suicide)"--Whatifallthis (30 min.)

News & Headlines:

Richard Spinrad, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said a subagency “discovered a miscalculation” that has caused a massive backlog in permitting, in the April 29 letter obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation. Spinrad acknowledged the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) — the subagency tasked with analyzing the impact of offshore drilling projects on wildlife — has used faulty modeling on such impacts and, as a result, overestimated wildlife effects, delaying permitting on existing leases.

Although after the crap modeling we've seen in everything from climate science to the Covid-19 pandemic, it should not be surprising. 

Other enemies of the State are the "51 former intelligence officials" who signed a letter declaring the Hunter laptop to be a hoax. Those persons are: Jim Clapper, Mike Hayden, Leon Panetta, John Brennan, Thomas Finger, Rick Ledgett, John McLaughlin, Michael Morell, Mike Vickers, Doug Wise, Nick Rasmussen, Russ Travers, Andy Liepman, John Moseman, Larry Pfeiffer, Jeremy Bash, Rodney Snyder, Glenn Gerstell, David B. Buckley, Nada Bakos, Patty Brandmaier, James B. Bruce, David Cariens, Janice Cariens, Paul Kolbe, Peter Corsell, Brett Davis, Roger Zane George, Steven L. Hall, Kent Harrington, Don Hepburn, Timothy D. Kilbourn, Ron Marks, Jonna Hiestand Mendez, Emile Nakhleh, Gerald A. O’Shea, David Priess, Pam Purcilly, Marc Polymeropoulos, Chris Savos, Nick Shapiro, John Sipher, Stephen Slick, Cynthia Strand, Greg Tarbell, David
Terry, Greg Treverton, John Tullius, David A. Vanell, Winston Wiley, and Kristin Wood. 
    'As someone who grew up in in a Christian household I've been thinking a lot about a parable of Christ and if you are would indulge me for those who may not be Christian and familiar with the story... it's a story that is relevant in general.

    'The parable is of a woman... a lot of people may have heard the phrase "Let he who is without sin throw the first stone," in that story there is a woman who was not allowed to be granted a divorce from her husband and so for all intents in purposes they were not really together. There were also the pharisees, strong religious and political leaders. Many of them were in a physical relationship with this woman...' AOC started, before heading off at a tangent.

    'At one point one of the pharisees is caught with the woman and she is immediately marched out into the town square before she is able to get dressed. Everyone surrounds her and try to figure out if they should punish her. 

    'Lets be really clear about the power dynamic here when you have several powerful people doing this. It frankly really blurs the lines of consent because what choice would she have when they hold so much power?,' AOC continued.

    'Christ takes an interest and call him over for advice. He draws something in the sand and people come out to see 'Let he who is without sin throw the first stone.'

    'I think there is deeper meaning to that story,' Ocasio-Cortez said as she entered an analytical phrase. 

    'Christ does not condemn her. The people who did something wrong there were those who were abusing her power. There are a lot of those kinds of types around today, trying to abuse women and take their autonomy away. All in the name of a book that they haven't really studied that closely.  

 She obviously isn't Christian because it is one of the most famous stories from the Bible and she horribly mangled it. First, it wasn't a parable, but an actual event. Second, the account contains nothing about the woman's--the adulterer's--background other than that she was caught in adultery. All the details that AOC is adding are completely made up--that the woman was not allowed to divorce, that she was involved in physical relationships with many of the Pharisees, that she was caught in adultery with a Pharisee, that she was marched into the town square before she could get dressed--it's not in the Bible. It is feminist claptrap that has been added to suggest that the woman had done nothing wrong. Third, Christ may not have condemned the woman, but he also did not tolerate her adultery because his last words to her were to "sin no more." 

    Right now the scientists aren't sure why the AI system is so good at identifying race from images that don't contain such information, at least not on the surface. Even when limited information is provided, by removing clues on bone density for instance or focussing on a small part of the body, the models still performed surprisingly well at guessing the race reported in the file.

    It's possible that the system is finding signs of melanin, the pigment that gives skin its color, that are as yet unknown to science.

    "Our finding that AI can accurately predict self-reported race, even from corrupted, cropped, and noised medical images, often when clinical experts cannot, creates an enormous risk for all model deployments in medical imaging," write the researchers.

    The research adds to a growing pile of evidence that AI systems can often reflect the biases and prejudices of human beings, whether that's racism, sexism, or something else. Skewed training data can lead to skewed results, making them much less useful.

Yes, we have reached the point where merely identifying someone as being of a particular race is racist, even when done by a machine. 

Voyager 1’s altitude articulation and control system (AACS) is sending back some strange readings, and engineers are puzzled as the craft is still operating normally. The AACS is responsible for keeping Voyager in the right orientation and making sure that its antenna is pointing toward Earth so that the spacecraft can transmit data. But now, the AACS is sending back data that doesn’t make any sense — the data looks like it could be scrambled, for example, or suggests that the system is in an impossible state — even though the antenna is still pointing the right way and transmitting just fine.

It has been a long while since I took my class in state machines, but since the craft is beyond the heliosphere--i.e., in interstellar space--with the high radiation exposure that would bring, I would guess that radiation is inducing the failures by flipping bits here and there. Since the AACS is still working, it also suggests something is wrong between where the data leaves the AACS and it being broadcast rather than something wrong with the AACS itself. 

2 comments:

  1. AI: I was surprised to find that blood donors are typed, but also the Red Cross wants to know the race, because there are different markers beyond the Rh+ and Rh- and type that are important for some conditions, and are (generally) race based. More info here: https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/blood-types/diversity/african-american-blood-donors.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem is that you can't reason with a Leftist. It's all about their feelings and current emotional state.

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