History in the Making: The Launch of the SpaceX Falcon Heavy Lift Rocket

If you haven't seen it, I would highly recommend watching the SpaceX heavy lift rocket launch from earlier today. This is history in the making, and it is a welcome relief to watch something inspiring and uplifting. Watch also for the images of the Tesla roadster used as a test cargo. Generally, tests like this will use something benign and boring as a cargo--like a chunk of concrete. Elon Musk decided in this case for something more interesting: a Tesla roadster convertable with a space suited dummy at the wheel, David Bowie's "Space Oddity" on the music player, and the helpful message of "Don't Panic" on the car's navigation screen.

(10 min.)

Magnetic Pole Reversal

        I have generally tried to stay away from the magnetic pole reversal issue because I have not researched the matter, and, therefore, it is not easy for me to separate what is possible from the hyperbole. This has also meant that I have also not attempted to downplay any predictions as well. But National Geographic has published an article which is intended to downplay the threat of any dangers from a magnetic pole shift, and which I felt was worth a couple of comments. The article primarily argues that (1) any magnetic pole shift will not occur during our lifetime (so why worry?), and (2) the consequences will be minimal.

        The first issue I had with the article is that the author seems to confuse a magnetic pole shift (the north magnetic pole switching positions with the south magnetic pole) with a geographic pole shift (which would require that the Earth flip over like a spinning top). They are obviously two different concepts.

         Second, as noted, the author argues that there is no indication that a magnetic pole reversal will occur, and that even if there was, it would take a long time (1,000+ years). The Suspicious Observers YouTube channel posted a rebuttal to the National Geographic article, which, among other things, notes that the science is not settled on how long it would take for a magnetic pole reversal. It cites research from Berkeley that concluded that the last magnetic pole reversal--some 780,000 years ago--actually took place within a 100 year period. In addition, the channel's author noted that the Earth's magnetic field has been weakening for the last 150 years--most of it in recent decades--and that the rate at which the poles have been wandering has also accelerated. The obvious implication is that we might already be in the midst of a magnetic pole reversal.

         Third, the National Geographic author downplays the seriousness of a reversal. I don't know about whether it would end civilization as we know it, but the primary danger with a reversal is that for a period of time, perhaps decades, the Earth's magnetic field will be very weak. The consequence is that the Earth, and all life on it, will be exposed to more solar radiation and cosmic rays. Notwithstanding the author's explanation that the Earth's thick atmosphere will protect us, it won't--at least not entirely. The magnetic field is our primary shield against space weather--particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs) such as the Carrington Event.

        Finally, the National Geographic author downplays the effect on wildlife, suggesting that it will be harmless--a few birds temporarily losing their way, but which will quickly adapt. It will probably be much worse. Almost all migratory birds will be impacted and could end up wildly off course. Some species--those that migrate the furthest--may go extinct. After all, an error that might put a flock of geese a hundred miles off course flying from Canada down to the United States, might put British Swallows, who winter in southern Africa, off course by hundreds or thousands of miles. At least some whales also use biomagnetism to navigate, so it is possible that they might also become confused, resulting in massive beachings.

       In short, the National Geographic article needs to be taken with a grain or two of salt. Perhaps the article is correct that a magnetic pole reversal will not be the end of the world as we know it, but it also won't be a walk through the park.

New Woodpile Report

Check it out here. As might be expected, Ol' Remus devotes some attention to the corruption evidenced by the FBI. I would also recommend this Forbes article featuring a brief timeline of some of the FBI shenanigans regarding this past election.

Video: "Cold News" from Suspicious Observers

"Cold News | February Forecast & Windmaps" (3 min.)

Basically, cold weather will continue across the northeast United States, North Atlantic, and Europe. Meanwhile, parts of Africa are experiencing drought which should reduce crop yields (particularly maize ("corn" to Americans))--probably should expect famine in some poorer countries. And dry weather in the mid-West should see reduced wheat crops this year in Canada and the United States. 

Crime and Violence in South Africa

Lauren Southern has been slowly releasing some videos about crime and violence in South Africa, in general, and the "farm murders" of thousands of Boer farmers. Here are a couple:

"South Africans Live in a Dangerous Gated World" (4 min.)

This video is about the general crime in South Africa being so great that many people--including middle class--live behind walls and gates. Even the interior of a home will have multiple security doors to safeguard the family from criminals/home invaders. 

"The Reality of South African Farm Murders" (8 min.)

This video, as the title indicates, discusses the murders of Boer farmers, and criticizes the South African government's attempts to paint the crimes as only "burglaries gone bad" instead of racial violence directed at the Boers. 

Video: "Distance Buys Defender Time to Draw" from Active Self Protection

"Distance Buys Defender Time to Draw" (3 min.)

The video in this case is of an attack in Russia: a knife wielding man attacks two police (or a police officer and a soldier). The second officer/soldier uses distance to allow him time to bring his rifle to bear and put down the attacker. 

Video: "Super-Flood" from Suspicious Observers

"Super-Flood"--Suspicious Observers (7 min.)

This video discusses the shifting of the Earth's magnetic poles, and a theory that oxygen liberated from the Earth's atmosphere by CMEs could react with hydrogen from the solar wind, to form water high in the atmosphere.

Today (January 2, 2018) in History

            A couple of memorable items from history. First, today is the 75th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis at Stalingrad. The surrender of the German Sixth Army to the Russians marked the turning point of the war against Germany: from this point on, the Germans were either retreating or fighting a rear action. Although the Germans would attempt one last major offensive, leading to the Battle of Kursk, that attempt was a failure. It should also be noted that by the time of the end of the Battle for Stalingrad, the Russians had a highly placed spy in the German high-command that fed them significant information about German plans, which also hampered the Germans in retrieving the initiative.

           Second, today is the anniversary of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, signed in 1848, which ended the Mexican-American War, and in which Mexico sold to the United States significant territory along the United State's border at the time. Per the treaty, the Rio Grande became the boundary for Texas, and gave the U.S. ownership of what is now the State of California and a large area comprising roughly half of New Mexico, most of Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, and parts of Wyoming and Colorado; and, in return (in addition to ceasing hostilities), the United States paid Mexico some $20 million. The Mexican-American War had started with an attack by Mexican troops across the border into the State of Texas. in April 1846. In a "it sucks to be you" vein, James Wilson Marshall found gold in California just nine days before the signing of the Treaty.

Active Response Training: New Weekend Knowledge Dump

Link here. A plethora of articles, including one where the author explains why he doesn't like Glocks, threats of cartel violence in Cancun, how to make homemade tannerite-type substance from a cold pack, and more.

February 1, 2018 -- A Quick Run Around the Web

"Magnetic reconnection and cosmic plasma"--Suspicious Observers (5 min.)

• "Outside the Americas, Knives Are Often the Weapon of Choice in Homicide"--Smithsonian. This is an article from March 2014, but still of interest and value. From the article:

            China is not unique in its problem with knives, however. In Japan, in 2001 a janitor wielding a kitchen knife killed eight children at an Osaka school where he worked, while a man in Tokyo went on a random stabbing spree with a dagger in 2008, killing four people. In South Korea, a disgruntled man killed eight people in a stabbing spree at his apartment complex in 2008. In Germany, a drunk 16-year-old stabbed 41 people at the opening ceremony of a Berlin train station. And last year, anti-knife campaigns ramped up in the U.K after a 13-year-old girl was stabbed to death. 

           All of these countries have tight gun control laws, and rates of violent crime involving knives reflect that. According to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, firearms account for 76 percent of homicide weapons in the Americas (30 countries), while knives make up just 10 percent of those crimes. In Europe (32 countries), on the other hand, guns are involved in 36 percent of murders and knives are involved in 43 percent.

(H/t Maajik World).

• "Good Morning! 81,000 New York Gun Owners Are Now Felons"--The Truth About Guns. That is the number that didn't register or re-register handguns for a new handgun database. The deadline for registration was yesterday, January 31.
• "Army Responds to DoD Report Criticizing New Sidearm Reliability"--Kit Up! More problems with the Sig 320, including that while it seems to cycle the new "special purpose" 147 g jacketed hollowpoint, it his having significant problems with the Army's standard 115 g full metal jacket ball. In the past, there have been many semi-autos that have had issues with hollowpoint, but fed ball ammo without a hitch. This is the first in my memory where the opposite was the problem. (See also "SIG SAUER P320 9mm Pistol Problems with U.S. Army"--The Truth About Guns).
• "When are Old Cartridges Really Dead?"--Ammo Land. A nice piece discussing when and how cartridges become obsolete and why some cartridges, which seemingly should have been abandoned long ago, are still used. The quintessential example of this is the .30-30 which hangs on and is still one of the most popular deer hunting cartridges.
• I thought Mexico had tough gun control laws: "30 minute shootout in La Paz , 6 sicarios arrested"--Borderland Beat. The article reports:

           For more than half an hour, Federal and State forces had a shoot out this afternoon in the locality of Fraccionamiento Juarez in La Paz, Baja California Sur. It is reported that no less than six alleged criminals were detained, among them two women.

          The shoot out culminated in the inside of a house that appeared to be a safe house of the arrested, located in Calles Insurgentes, between Margaritas and Constructores.

• Related: "A bloody weekend, with 25 assassinations"--Mexican News Daily. This is about the weekend just past.

• Mexico blaming the United States for its violence: "Tyranny of the Majority: U.S.-fueled Instability in Mexico and the Case for a North American Economic and Security Community"--Borderland Beat. The author argues:

Sadly, this, “continual fear and danger of violent death,” is fueled by demand for narcotics in the United States. This is because drug sales in America create “illicit external income”[v] that Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) use to corrupt government officials, and to purchase weapons. Yet, the U.S. government has failed, and continues to fail, to adopt policies that could effectively reduce this demand. This is tragic. Mexico is a new democracy, and it is still mired in the exceptionally difficult and vulnerable process that is democratic consolidation.[vi]-[vii] In this essay I argue that the United States’ failure to effectively reduce domestic narcotics demand has, in Mexico, facilitated the breakdown of the rule of law, and reversion to the state of nature that Rousseau and Hobbes mentioned. This severely undermines democratic governance in Mexico. Because U.S. and Mexican societies have become deeply interconnected,[viii] I contend that the U.S. is thus guilty of exercising the tyranny of the majority over her weaker southern neighbor.

         Let me whip out the world's smallest violin. "Mexico is a new democracy, and it is still mired in the exceptionally difficult and vulnerable process that is democratic consolidation." Mexico won its independence from Spain in 1821, and became a republic in 1823. Thus, it is an older democracy than Germany, Italy, or most any other European country, older than Japan's democracy, or that of South Korea, and almost as old as the United States. That makes it one of the oldest democracies in the world. If it is still having problems with "democratic consolidation," it probably needs to look in the mirror.

          "In this essay I argue that the United States’ failure to effectively reduce domestic narcotics demand has, in Mexico, facilitated the breakdown of the rule of law, and reversion to the state of nature that Rousseau and Hobbes mentioned." Mexico has been in violent upheaval since its independence in 1821, well before any drug trade existed or the United States was of any power or influence. And the United States has had to deal with crossborder thieving, raids, and small scale wars since the Mexican-American war. So there is no temporal nexus between Mexico's lack of the rule of law and influence from the United States; and armed conflict between the two nations has been almost entirely one sided--from Mexico and against the United States. Mexico's problems are endemic and would exist whether or not there was a United States of America to its north.

• Churches that compromise with the left are just prostituting themselves, and will see continued decline: "German far-right figure embraces Islam over church's 'moral decline'"--AFP (via Yahoo News). From the article:

           A member of Germany's far-right and anti-Muslim Alternative for Germany party (AfD) who recently converted to Islam has said he did so in protest at what he sees as the "moral decline" of the Protestant church.

           Arthur Wagner, 48, until recently a leading party member in the state of Brandenburg, told the Bild newspaper on Wednesday that his decision was in part sparked by the church's acceptance of same-sex marriage and the presence of priests at gay pride marches.

Believe it or not, I was actually thinking about this general topic a few days ago. My thoughts, and concerns, was that as the mainline Christian churches increasingly embrace a liberal world view, they would drive people of conservative morals away, and fail to attract those seeking a religion with conservative principles. And I specifically thought about Europe. Here in the United States, there are still conservative Christian options. But in Europe, this is less so. So where would those people seek religion? And the answer hit me--Islam. Islam holds itself out as a moral rock among a sea of shifting moral currents within the West. Even if Europe gets its immigration under control, I see Islam spreading and appealing to those seeking the moral guidance and rules that the old Christianity has abandoned in favor of progressivism. 

• Related: "Indonesia looks set to make sex outside marriage illegal, punishable by up to five years in jail, in victory for country's hardline Islamic politicians"--Daily Mail. The law also outlaws same sex marriage and homosexual sex.

• "Selco: What an 'Average Day' Is REALLY Like When the SHTF"--SHTF Plan. A lot of discussion of OPSEC.
• A reminder that we live in the 21st Century: "Smartphones that you can ROLL UP like paper could be a step closer after scientists create a bendable battery that holds 85% of the charge of a normal power cell"--Daily Mail.