More on China vs. Vietnam

This is to follow up on my post earlier this week concerning China's confrontation with Vietnam over an oil platform placed in Vietnamese waters. VOA News reports:

Two experts spoke to VOA about the Chinese decision to place the oil rig in contested waters at this time, knowing it would provoke outrage from Vietnam.

“I think it’s part of a long-term pattern of testing the responses of states around the region, ranging along the spectrum of much weaker states like the Philippines up to Japan and the United States,” said Michael Auslin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

“There are moments of opportunity and this seemed to be one where they could get away with really trying to stake their claim in waters that by almost any definition are Vietnam’s,” Auslin said.

John Tkacik, the director of the Future Asia Project at the International Strategy and Assessment Center in Alexandria, Virginia, agrees with the perception that this was a calculated move by Beijing.

... The dispute is complicated by China’s preference to deal with the countries involved individually, instead of through an organization like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. That has made the other members of ASEAN concerned about China’s growing might.

Tkacik indicates that international law on the law of the sea favors Vietnam's claims. The story also states that Vietnam is considering legal action against China.

China's strategy to cut off and isolate the weaker members of the herd, so to speak, is a timeless strategy, but has the disadvantage that it alarms the rest of the herd which become more protective. Instead of weakening international alliances, China is more apt to strengthen the alliances. Chinese leaders probably assume that the nations will seek to align themselves with the U.S., and, therefore, not act without permission from the U.S. That is, they are counting on the U.S. to forestall any rash actions by these smaller nations--to act as a referee rather than the leader of a military alliance. China knows that the United States will not risk war with a nuclear power to protect the territorial integrity of any of the Southeast Asian nations. The strategy fails, however, if the United States is cut out of the decision making loop, or is able to carry out military action through a proxy.

As noted in my post earlier this week, Vietnam is considering a strategy whereby they would initiate hostilities with China, and then hope the United States would be forced to step in and stop the fight. It is a big gamble, but if sufficiently threatened, might be carried out.

There is also the issue of the Southeast Asian nations simply creating their own alliances that are independent of the United States. I could certainly see India taking a leading role in such an alliance as its military power increases.