Rumors of a Chinese Coup (Updated)

A few days ago, I posted about the growing influence of the Chinese military in Chinese politics. One of the articles I cited to was this Forbes article on how what was supposed to be a smooth transition of power has become increasingly rocky. I had focused on the run to the military for support, and less on the background. However, that background is important here:

While Americans were watching the Super Bowl, Wang, a high-level Chongqing official, attempted to defect to the U.S. at the American consulate in the Sichuan capital of Chengdu, carrying with him papers that many believe document the foreign assets of the wife of Bo Xilai, his former boss.

Bo, then the Chongqing Party secretary, tried to prevent Wang from getting away by ordering hundreds of his armed security troops to cross into neighboring Sichuan province to surround the Chengdu consulate. The effort failed as Wang was escorted to Beijing by officials of the Ministry of State Security. Wang, now detained, has been officially branded a traitor to the country and the Communist Party.

Bo has not fared well either. He was stripped of his Chongqing post on Thursday, and virtually all analysts believe he has no chance of being named to the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee this fall. Many believe that Hu Jintao, China’s current supremo, engineered this bizarre incident as a means of sidelining Bo, but events could spiral beyond control as the Party’s factions scramble to take advantage of a fluid situation.

(Wang's attempted defection has been confirmed. See here). Now, Isaac Fish, in his Foreign Policy blog, questions if there is more going on behind the scenes. (H/t Instapundit):

Last week, controversial politician Bo Xilai, whose relatively open campaigning for a seat on China's top ruling council shocked China watchers (and possibly his elite peers, as well), was removed from his post as Chongqing's party secretary. He hasn't been seen since. Rumors of a coup, possibly coordinated by Bo's apparent ally Zhou Yongkang, are in the air.

He further relates:

Mainland media sites have begun to strongly censor discussion of Bo Xilai and entirely unsubstantiated rumors of gunfire in downtown Beijing (an extremely rare occurance in Beijing). Chinese websites hosted overseas, free from censorship, offer a host of unsupported, un-provable commentary on what might have happened in the halls of power. Bannedbook.org, which provides free downloads of "illegal" Chinese books, posted a long explanation of tremors in the palace of Zhongnanhai, sourced to a "person with access to high level information in Beijing," of a power struggle between President Hu Jintao, who controls the military, and Zhou, who controls China's formidable domestic security apparatus. The Epoch Times, a news site affiliated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement (which banned in China), has published extensively in English and Chinese about the coup.

. . . A censored fatal Ferrari crash on Sunday night has raised suspicions of elite foul play, possibly realted to Bo. The bannedbook.org reports that Hu and Zhou "are currently fighting for control of China Central Television, Xinhua News (the official Communist Party wire service), and other ‘mouthpieces,'" which have been eerily but unsurprisingly taciturn about Bo Xilai.

The coup rumors are undoubtedly just that--rumors. (See also here). (More roundup on the coup rumors here). But, even if rumors of an actual coup are unfounded, the fact that they gained such traction in China may be indicative of public perception of instability as this report in the WSJ discusses.

The party has been able to keep internal strife under control by avoiding ideological struggle over the last 20 years. The factions have competed for important posts and the spoils of power, but they ruled by consensus. The public was simply told to believe in the myth of a monolithic party and ignore the men squabbling behind the curtain.

This technocratic pragmatism may now be breaking down. For instance, Bo Xilai appealed to leftists' disgust with bourgeois individualism and public unhappiness with income inequality, a tactic that alarmed some leaders. Since his dismissal, leftist websites and commentators have also been silenced.

But there are plenty of other voices on the "right" advocating liberal political reform. Ten years ago, the prospect of achieving middle-class incomes made most intellectuals unwilling to rock the boat. Now they feel secure enough to demand more rights. The party sees this as evidence of Western infiltration, and it is tightening control over the media and launching new campaigns to promote the spirit of self-sacrifice.

This return of ideology could make it difficult for the party to apportion power neatly between the factions. This time, Bo Xilai was replaced by Zhang Dejiang, a more moderate member of the same faction. But if the factions come to stand for policy platforms, they will naturally start to play for keeps. Instead of rotating through positions as they currently do, politicians and their proteges will develop personal strongholds, especially in the military. From there it's a short hop to a real coup attempt like the one Mao's designated successor Lin Biao was supposedly plotting in 1971, before he died in a mysterious plane crash.

 It may also reflect ongoing economic issues in China. The latest economic figures still show an economy that is slowing down and, perhaps, contracting.

(Update: More from the Daily Mail).