US Birth Rates Suffer Further Declines

The New York post cites CDC data showing that birth rates in the U.S. continue to decline, now at less than 1.6 children per woman. 2.1 is considered replacement level--the level needed to keep the population stable. Researches peg the decline to rising housing prices: 

In the research paper titled “House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby,” authors Lisa Dettling and Melissa Schettini Kearney write that a 10% jump in home prices leads to a 1% drop in births among non-homeowners in an average metro.  

Part of the reason for high housing prices is the lack of entry level homes intended for the first time home buyer according to this article from Yahoo! Finance. The article explains that this is the result of a couple of factors: builders not constructing enough entry level homes to keep up with demand; and owners of such homes unable to afford to sell those homes and step up into larger homes. Costs of construction have gone up as well due to tariffs on Canadian lumber raising material costs and the crack down on illegal aliens increasing labor costs. On the subject of expensive housing, Peter Grant (author of the Bayou Renaissance Man blog) notes some research indicating that younger cohorts are opting to move out of larger cities to smaller cities and exurbs. While the research lists various reasons for this demographic shift, one of the reasons listed is affordability. 

    Of course, housing prices is only part of the picture. There is also this: "No wonder there is fear of a population crisis — young men and women are wildly out of sync on family values"--New York Post. Key point: "A new poll found that young men who voted for Donald Trump prioritize having children above all else — but being a parent is of so little importance to young women who voted for Kamala Harris, it charted second to last out of 13 options." Significantly, however, even for those young women that voted for Trump, having children was halfway down their list of priorities.