Exploring practical methods for preparing for the end times, including analysis of end time scripture and prophecy, current events, prepping and self-defense.
After nearly 12,000 years in dormancy, a volcano in Ethiopia has erupted and hurled ash over unsuspecting communities. It’s assumed that Hayli Gubbi, located in the Afar region of northeastern Ethiopia, hasn’t erupted at all during the Holocene — the ongoing geological epoch that started 11,700 years ago.
The volcanic eruption happened around 8:30 a.m. local time on Sunday, November 23, 2025, and explosive activity continued for several hours before coming to an end. While no casualties have been reported by local authorities, there is concern over the ash that has covered villages and started to drift toward the Arabian Peninsula.
From the Daily Mail: "'Zombie' volcano thought extinct for 710,000 years shows signs of an eruption." The volcano in question is the approximately 13,000 foot tall Taftan, in southeastern Iran. It was thought to be extinct but it has shown activity recently including a summit uplift of 3.5 inches over 10 months from 2023 to 2024, and has not subsided; and visible smoke and ash emissions from the crater. "The team [that has been studying the volcano] also said the findings highlight the urgent need to reassess the Makran subduction volcanic arc, a chain of volcanoes in southern Iran and Pakistan, as new activity at Taftan suggests current hazard evaluations may be outdated."
You might remember a few years ago when Space Weather News (fko Suspicious Observers) started discussing a galactic magnetic reversal propagating outward from the center of the galaxy, and how we were already seeing the impact of that process in the solar system. (See this video for a short introduction). The video below reminds me of that discussion, noting that the solar system may be currently or soon (as in the next couple of thousand years) enter an interstellar cloud of plasma. It is not the same process, but it too could impact the sun and space weather by causing the heliosphere to contract and exposing the planets (possibly including the inner solar system) to interstellar radiation.
One of the things you will notice if you look at volcanic activity over the past several centuries--particularly if examining the very large eruptions--is that the 20th Century was unusually quiet. And, so far, so has been the 21st Century. But this video suggests that things may be heating up in certain hot spots, like Hawaii, Iceland, and, the primary subject of this video, the Axial Seamount. (See also "Underwater volcano off Oregon coast ‘ballooning’ with lava — and set to erupt for first time since 2015"--New York Post).
The Daily Mail reports: "Major US city that's on volcano watch is rocked by near-5.0 magnitude earthquake." This is yet another incident related to increased activity associated with Mt. Spurr in Alaska. "The 4.7 magnitude earthquake is the fifth quake measuring a 4.1 or greater in the South-Central region of Alaska in the last 11 days," according to the article.
It was almost 36 years ago that experts agreed to ban the production of a damaging class of man-made chemicals, known as CFCs.
At the time, research had shown that CFCs depleted the ozone layer, the protective layer of our atmosphere that shields us from cancer-causing UV rays.
But this might not be enough, as the ozone hole has been 'remarkably massive' over the last four years, scientists in New Zealand now reveal.
Heh. I'm old enough to remember the debate and even when the ban was still under consideration there were voices in opposition that argued that the ozone hole issue was due to volcanic activity, not people using their cans of hairspray and air conditioners; and that, besides, the CFC molecules were too heavy to find their way from your bathroom or car to the upper edge of the atmosphere. But just as with global warming, there were too many environmental groups making too much money off the scaremongering. And so we got stuck with crappy pump hairspray bottles and lousy A/C coolants. The result?
The experts analysed the monthly and daily ozone changes, at different altitudes and latitudes within the ozone hole, from 2004 to 2022.
They found that there is much less ozone in the centre of the ozone hole compared to 19 years ago, despite the crackdown on CFC production that began in the 1980s.
As of September, the ozone hole was 10.3 million square miles (26 million square km), experts at recently revealed – but they were unsure why it was so big.
A UN report earlier in the year claimed the ozone layer could be mended by 2040 due to the CFC ban, but recent measurements of the hole have cast doubt over the matter.
The authors of this new study claim there's been a 26 per cent loss in the core of the ozone hole in the past 19 years – but again, they're not sure why.
The experts compared measurements of the ozone hole made since 2004 during the month of October.
October is the southern hemisphere's spring, and is usually when the hole reaches its maximum size.
'The hole has been amongst the largest on record over the past three years,' said study author Hannah Kessenich at the University of Otago.
'Our analysis ended with data from 2022, but as of today the 2023 ozone hole has already surpassed the size of the three years prior.
The Atlantic runs a yearly "The Year In Volcanic Activity" that says in both the 2019 and 2020 editions that "[o]ut of an estimated 1,500 active volcanoes, about 50 erupt every year". Thus, it is notable that, per the Smithsonian Institute, 2016 had 86 eruptions from 75 volcanoes; 2017 saw 74 eruptions from 71 volcanoes; 2018 gave us 80 eruptions from 75 volcanoes; 2019 saw 75 eruptions from 73 volcanoes, including the White Island eruption in New Zealand that killed 22; 2020 had 74 eruptions from 69 volcanoes; 2021 had 83 eruptions from 77 volcanoes; and 2022 saw 85 eruptions from 80 different volcanoes. Conversely, if you jump back to 1986, there were 75 eruptions from 67 different volcanoes; in 1987, there were 64 eruptions from 62 volcanoes; in 1988, there were 64 eruptions from 62 volcanoes; in 1989, there were 57 eruptions from 55 volcanoes; in 1990, there were 60 eruptions from 56 volcanoes; in 1991, there were 67 eruptions from 65 volcanoes; and in 1992, there were 61 eruptions from 57 volcanoes. Obviously this does take into account the size of the eruption or the amount of gases or other materials thrown up in the atmosphere, but just looking at the numbers there has been a significant uptick in volcanic activity from when CFCs were banned and the recent several years.
Scientists at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) identified over 2,000 earthquakes rumbling throughout the Long Valley Caldera in recent years.
The team conducted a new investigation to see if the seismic activity was a sign of impending doom or that the risk of a massive eruption was decreasing.
Caltech researchers created detailed underground images of the caldera, finding that the recent seismic activity results from fluids and gases released as the area cools off and settles down.
The study author Zhongwen Zhan said: 'We don't think the region is gearing up for another supervolcanic eruption, but the cooling process may release enough gas and liquid to cause earthquakes and small eruptions.
'For example, in May 1980, there were four magnitude 6 earthquakes in the region alone.'
The article also adds that "[t]he long-dormant volcano was the site of a super explosion 767,000 years ago, releasing 140 miles of volcanic material into the atmosphere and devastating the land."
While it may seem that volcanic eruptions or volcanic activity is increasing, that is an illusion. Rather, we are increasingly more aware of volcanic activity. See:
In fact, using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), we haven't had a volcanic explosion above VEI 6 since the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815. (See, "The 12 biggest volcanic eruptions in recorded history"--Live Science). It is also notable that atmospheric loading of aerosols and dust due to volcanic activity has actually been quite low over the past century compared to prior periods, according to the graph below:
The researchers detected 238 eruptions from the past 2,500 years, they report today in Nature. About half were in the mid- to high-latitudes in the northern hemisphere, while 81 were in the tropics. (Because of the rotation of the Earth, material from tropical volcanoes ends up in both Greenland and Antarctica, while material from northern volcanoes tends to stay in the north.) The exact sources of most of the eruptions are as yet unknown, but the team was able to match their effects on climate to the tree ring records.
The analysis not only reinforces evidence that volcanoes can have long-lasting global effects, but it also fleshes out historical accounts, including what happened in the sixth-century Roman Empire. The first eruption, in late 535 or early 536, injected large amounts of sulfate and ash into the atmosphere. According to historical accounts, the atmosphere had dimmed by March 536, and it stayed that way for another 18 months.
Tree rings, and people of the time, recorded cold temperatures in North America, Asia and Europe, where summer temperatures dropped by 2.9 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit below the average of the previous 30 years. Then, in 539 or 540, another volcano erupted. It spewed 10 percent more aerosols into the atmosphere than the huge eruption of Tambora in Indonesia in 1815, which caused the infamous “year without a summer”. More misery ensued, including the famines and pandemics. The same eruptions may have even contributed to a decline in the Maya empire, the authors say.
“We were amazed at the close correspondence and the consistency of the climate response to volcanic sulfate forcing during the entire 2,500-year period,” says coauthor Joe McConnell of the Desert Research Institute. “This clearly shows the marked impact that volcanic eruptions have on our climate and, in some cases, on human health, economics and so history.”
The January 15, 2022, Hunga Tonga–Hunga HaÊ»apai volcanic explosion near Tonga was the largest natural explosion ever recorded (i.e., since the 1960s when scientists started deploying a network of sensors and satellites--the 1815 Tambura and 1883 Krakatoa explosions were more powerful). It was, the article states, an order of magnitude larger than the explosion of Mount St. Helens in 1980. But as the Popular Science article referenced in the title explains, there was a mystery: why were there not more damage and deaths? The article noted that it devastated Tonga but it only caused four deaths in the archipelago. The island nation's disaster response played a role, as did the fact that Covid-19 lockdowns meant that there were no tourists. But the saving grace for Tonga was apparently geographic.
The main island located 40 miles south of the eruption is surrounded by shallow seas and coral reefs. The shallow seas meant smaller waves; and the coral reefs also seemed to shield the island. Conversely, the article explains, the isle of Tofua, about 55 miles northeast of the eruption, is a volcanic caldera and sits in deep waters with sharp, mountainous coasts that offer no protection from an incoming tsunami. As a result, it may have been struck by waves more than 100 feet tall. But as Tofua is uninhabited, there was no loss of human life.
Researchers cataloging tree rings noted something peculiar about data from 535 and 536 A.D.--there was hardly any tree ring growth, indicating that something happened to inhibit growth, most likely severe cold. As they investigated contemporary records from that time, they learned that there were records of the Sun being dimmed, cold temperature and poor crops, and the resulting social upheaval that follows such events. Further research revealed that the culprit was likely a massive explosion of the Krakatoa volcano--much bigger than Krakatoa's 1883 explosion and probably even larger than the 1815 Tambora explosion that ushered in the "year without a summer."
This video documentary concerns the collapse of the Minoan civilization, "an Aegean Bronze Age civilization that arose on the island of Crete and other Aegean islands and flourished from approximately 3650 to 1400 BCE." This particular documentary explores whether the explosive eruption of Thera (modern day, Santorini) around 1600 BC caused or contributed to the collapse of the Minoan culture. Prior to the eruption, Thera was a horseshoe shaped is and with a shallow bay in the horseshoe, mostly taken up by a smaller island (so, basically, there was an outer island "wall" or "shell" protecting a smaller island surrounded by a sea passageway). The center island obviously was a prime port with the possibility of ships being able to land a full 360 degrees around the island, with all being in a protected harbor. Because Thera lay north of Crete, the island would have been a natural trading port between Crete, where the Minoan government was centered, the Balkan and Peloponnese peninsulas, and Asia Minor. The documentary suggests that this city would fill a similar role that Hong Kong plays in the Far East, as center of international trade (and, probably, finance).
The eruption destroyed much of Thera, including the central island city. That bay and city island overlay the caldera, of which what remained after the explosion, collapsed forming a deep bay. The ash plume would have been 26 miles high. A tidal wave produced by the explosion would have destroyed ports all along the north coast of Crete. The explosion likely rivaled that of the 1815 Tambora explosion; the amount of sulfur dioxide thrown into the atmosphere likely reduced global temperatures, perhaps for several years. Certainly, it is likely that the Minoans experienced crop failures.
The Minoan civilization did not collapse immediately, but it appears to have entered a period of decline, with new or alien religions popping up in the rural areas. The Minoan period ended with either invasion, civil war, or both. The grand palace at Knossos was abandoned and gave rise to the myth of King Minos and the maze in which the Minotaur was kept.
I find this documentary to be interesting in several ways. First, I see it fulfilling many of the traits of collapse as described by Tainter. The Minoan civilization was an old and wealthy civilization by the time of the explosion of Thera. The sheer magnitude of the palace at Knossos demonstrates the amount of wealth that must have been needed to maintain the elite. Moreover, public works (running water and sewers) would have required a significant expenditure. It is likely that by the time of the Thera eruption, the civilization had reached a level of complexity where new laws and public works were producing a negative return on investment. With resources stretched thin, a sudden disaster--the loss of much of the ships and ports on which it relied, as well as the complete destruction of its major seaport--was more than the civilization could mitigate. Moreover, if you put yourself in the shoes of the "average" Minoan, you could see how a disaster of this magnitude could be seen as a judgment of the gods, and therefore destroying much of the legitimacy of the ruling class. This seems to be evidenced by the fact that a new rival religion arose in rural areas of Crete.
Second, I find the collapse of Minoan civilization to have many similarities to events outlined in Chapter 8 of the Revelation, when the Seventh Seal is opened; like those events writ small. Obviously, we don't know if the Minoans had been warned by some unknown ancient prophet, but certainly they were oblivious to the impending disaster. Similarly, when the Seventh Seal is opened, there will be a short silence in heaven. I interpret this as a period of time when God will withdraw his spirit from the world (not necessarily the righteous, but the world at large), fulfilling the statement that Lord's spirit would not always strive with man. (Genesis 6:3). (See also 2 Nephi 26:11) ("For the Spirit of the Lord will not always strive with man. And when the Spirit ceaseth to strive with man then cometh speedy destruction, and this grieveth my soul."). Then we hear of lightning and thunder and an earthquake, followed by hail and fire, and a mountain "burning with fire" cast into the sea. While there are several possible explanations for this, it would certainly match one or more massive volcanic explosions. Next, John's Revelation describes the fall from heaven of the star called Wormwood. While I believe this may be a meteor or some other physical object, I also recognize that heavenly bodies (including stars) are used to represent or designate heavenly or supernatural personages. Thus, this could be an angel of some sort coming to the earth to spread destruction. In any event, poisoned waters could be a result of major volcanic activity, whether from ash falls, sulfuric acid, hydrofluoric acid, or some other contaminants. Finally, after all of this, the Revelation describes spreading war and conflict--just as experienced by the Minoans as their civilization collapsed.
Like most normal boys, I loved blowing stuff up as a young kid. Although firecrackers and bottle rockets were illegal in my locale, I had a friend that seemed to have an endless supply of them. Many a grasshopper and toy soldier (and the occasional plastic model) met its doom with the sharp pop from a firecracker or bottle rocket.
But, unless you are holding them in your hand or next to your face, firecrackers and bottle rockets don't pose any real threat. Other explosions are different. And thus, the lead in to a few articles I came across recently that discuss really big explosions.
I’ve been studying the effects of nuclear events – from detonations to accidents – for over 30 years. I’ve been involved in research, teaching and humanitarian efforts in multiple expeditions to Chernobyl- and Fukushima-contaminated areas. Now I am involved in the proposal for the formation of the Nuclear Global Health Workforce.
Such a group could bring together nuclear and non-nuclear technical and health professionals for education and training, and help to meet the preparedness, coordination, collaboration and staffing requirements necessary to respond to a large-scale nuclear crisis.
Any nuclear weapon exchange or major nuclear plant meltdown will immediately lead to a global public health emergency. The Ebola outbreak taught the world that we should have resources in place to handle a major health emergency before it happens.
Looking to the Japanese bombings, he notes:
Approximately 135,000 and 64,000 people died, respectively, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The great majority of deaths happened in the first days after the bombings, mainly from thermal burns, severe physical injuries and radiation.
Over 90% of the doctors in nurses in Hiroshima were killed and injured, and therefore unable to assist in the response. This was largely due to the concentration of medical personnel and facilities in inner urban areas. This exact concentration exists today in the majority of American cities, and is a chilling reminder of the difficulty in medically responding to nuclear events.
What if a nuclear device were detonated in an urban area today? ... As in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the majority of deaths would happen soon after the detonation, and the local health care response capability would be largely eradicated.
Models show that such an event in an urban area in particular will not only destroy the existing public health protections but will, most likely, make it extremely difficult to respond, recover and rehabilitate them.
With medical facilities decimated after a detonation, treating the injured will be a tremendous challenge. We would need predicted casualty distributions and locations to figure out how to best allocate what resources and personnel remain.
Very few medical personnel today have the skills or knowledge to treat the kind and the quantity of injuries a nuclear blast can cause. Health care workers would have little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Thermal burns would require enormous resources to treat even a single patient, and a large number of patients with these injuries will overwhelm any existing medical system. There would also be a massive number of laceration injuries from the breakage of virtually all glass in a wide area.
Currently, it has not been worked out how medical systems in affected areas are supposed to cope with the overwhelming numbers of patients from an urban nuclear detonation.
He goes on to note that response to other nuclear emergencies, Chernobyl and Fukushima for instance, required massive evacuations and resettlements of hundreds of thousands of people. But current U.S. plans do not consider large scale evacuations, primarily because the government's plans center around the detonation of a small 10 kt device.
The effects of 20 kiloton and 550 kiloton nuclear detonations on high priority target cities are presented for New York City, Chicago, Washington D.C. and Atlanta. Thermal, blast and radiation effects are described, and affected populations are calculated using 2000 block level census data. Weapons of 100 Kts and up are primarily incendiary or radiation weapons, able to cause burns and start fires at distances greater than they can significantly damage buildings, and to poison populations through radiation injuries well downwind in the case of surface detonations. With weapons below 100 Kts, blast effects tend to be stronger than primary thermal effects from surface bursts. From the point of view of medical casualty treatment and administrative response, there is an ominous pattern where these fatalities and casualties geographically fall in relation to the location of hospital and administrative facilities. It is demonstrated that a staggering number of the main hospitals, trauma centers, and other medical assets are likely to be in the fatality plume, rendering them essentially inoperable in a crisis.
The full paper is available at the link above, or you can download a PDF. I recommend that you read it.
Asteroid 1950 DA has a one-in-300 chance of hitting the globe on the appointed day. Although that may sound like slim odds, it is the most likely asteroid to collide with our planet.
... the asteroid has a diameter of one kilometre and is travelling at nine miles a second relative to the Earth.
It is also rotating so fast - once every 2 hours and six minutes - that it "defies gravity".
Rotation at that speed should cause the space rock to fly apart, but cohesive forces called van der Waals are holding it together. These forces have never before been detected on an asteroid.
Were it to make contact with the planet, it would hit at 38,000 miles per hour, exerting the same force as around 44,800 megatonnes of TNT.
An impact would cause an enormous explosion and tsunamis, changing the climate of the globe and destroying human life.
Experts at the University of Southampton have developed software which predicts the impact ‘corridors’ of known asteroids and calculates the risk to communities if they struck.
Although the UK is not directly under an asteroid path, it is at risk from impacts in the Atlantic Ocean and North Sea which could trigger devastating tsunamis. For example there is a one in 10,000 chance that a space rock could hit just off the coast of Norfolk within the next 85 years.
* * *
The new maps show a wide asteroid risk zone running through Europe, passing directly over Scandanavia, Germany, France and Spain.
The US is largely unaffected, although Florida and Louisiana could be hit. South Australia is particularly at risk with several asteroid paths crossing the Lake Gairdner National Park and heading up towards Queensland.
The asteroid impact probability distribution was also combined with the Earth population map to produce the global asteroid impact risk distribution which shows that south east Britain is one of the most at risk areas of the world.
Dr Hugh Lewis, Senior Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, at the University of Southampton, added: “It’s very easy to be flippant because of the Hollywood effect but it is a real risk.
“When you look at global vulnerability Britain is at very high risk. You might think that is odd because we are a very small country but we have a high population density on the coastline so that means we are vulnerable to an impact in the Atlantic Ocean.
If the Yellowstone supervolcano were to erupt, it would happen like this: Heat rising from deep within the planet's core would begin to melt the molten rock just below the ground's surface. That would create a mixture of magma, rocks, vapor, carbon dioxide and other gases. As the mix amassed and rose over thousands of years, the pressure eventually would push the ground up into a dome shape and create cracks along the edges. As that pressure was released through the cracks, the dissolved gases would explode, emptying the magma in quick fashion across the park.
The eruption could be expected to kill as many as 90,000 people immediately and spread a 10-foot (3-meter) layer of molten ash as far as 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) from the park. Rescuers probably would have a tough time getting in there. The ash would block off all points of entry from the ground, and the spread of ash and gases into the atmosphere would stop most air travel, just as it did when a much smaller volcano erupted in Iceland in 2010.
Equally as frightening is the "nuclear winter" that some experts say could blanket the U.S. and other parts of the world if Yellowstone were to blow. Sulfuric gases released from the volcano would spring into the atmosphere and mix with the planet's water vapor. The haze of gas that could drape the country wouldn't just dim the sunlight — it also would cool temperatures. Falling temperatures would do a number on our food supply, decimating crops and throwing the food chain out of whack by leaving those at the bottom with little to eat. In fact, that's what many climate scientists believe happened in C.E. 535 after a supervolcano erupted in Java.
As this article at the Daily Mail points out, there appears to be a correlation between the solar system passing through the center of the galactic disk and cometary impacts and mass extinction events. . But a new theory suggests that such passage may also increase the risk of major seismic activity:
Professor Rampino claims that as the solar system passes through the patches of dark matter here, the gravity it produces can disrupt the huge swarm of comets that sit in the Oort cloud around the very outer edges of our solar system.
This can throw them into the inner reaches of the solar system and some can impact the Earth.
He found that there appeared to be regular correlations between extinction events on Earth and the movement of the solar system through the galactic disk.
His conclusions echo those made by Lisa Randall and Matthew Reece at Harvard University in Massachusetts who calculated last year that the solar system would move through a dark matter disc every 35 million years.
They said this matched a similar pattern seen in comet impacts on Earth.
Professor Rampino, however, also claims that major geological events also appear to be correlated to this movement through the galaxy and may also trigger extinctions.
He said that major changes in sea level and tectonic episodes appeared to occur on a 26-27 million year cycle.
Professor Rampino believes that dark matter particles could become trapped within the Earth's gravity and accumulate in the Earth's core, where they may reach densities high enough for mutual annihilation.
This, he says, would release huge amounts of energy and heat the planet's interior, leading to geological disruption millions of years later.
If correct, this could mean the Earth will experience an increase in earthquakes and volcanoes as a result of the last crossing our solar system made through the plane of the Milky Way two to three million years ago.
It could explain why geologists are finding that the Earth appears to be growing more active - certainly compared to the 20 year period since the mid-1970s.
Professor Romano said: 'Excess heat near the core-mantle boundary could trigger upwelling plumes of mantle material.
'These plumes could rise to the surface in possibly as short as a few million years, depending on mantle vicosity.
'The plumes would create volcanic hotspots, rift apart continents and perturb mantle convection, possibly leading to pulses of tectonic unrest, changes in direction and rate of sea floor spreading and associated changes in volcanism, sea level and climate.
'Geological events that have been thought of as independent occurrences might have common roots and might be partly related to extraterrestrial forces.'
Until recently it was thought that only particularly large eruptions had any noticeable affect on the climate.
However, the new study has confirmed results from the end of last year that showed these small eruptions can have an accumulative impact on global temperature.
This could have helped decrease the global temperatures by between 0.05°C to 0.12°C over the past 15 years.
Since 1998, the warmest year on record, the steep increase in global temperatures seen during the 1990s has levelled off, failing to match computer model predictions for climate change.
This pause, or hiatus, has been blamed on weak solar activity and increased uptake of heat by the world's oceans.
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year concluded that the deep oceans had been responsible for absorbing an increasing amount of heat, but warned that this could not continue indefinitely.
However, in a paper published in November last year, atmospheric scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that small volcanic eruptions in the early 21st century, which had been largely overlooked, were responsible for up to a third of the hiatus in warming.
Now researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in California, have found signs of the effects from eruptions from the late 20th century and early 21st century in the atmospheric temperature, moisture and amount of sunlight reflected from the atmosphere.
They also found that the eruption of Pinatubo, a volcano on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, which last erupted in 1991, also caused a drop in tropical rainfall.
'The fact that these volcanic signatures are apparent in multiple independently measured climate variables really supports the idea that they are influencing climate in spite of their moderate size,' said Mark Zelinka, a climate scientist at Lawrence Livermore and one of the authors of the new study.
A few days ago I came across and watched a documentary concerning the 1815 Tambora explosion and its impact on North America and Europe. The documentary is available on Hulu, as part of a series of Pure History Specials, and entitled "The Year Without A Summer." I've outlined the basics facts of the explosion and its environmental impact in a prior post, so I won't repeat it here. Suffice it to say that the explosion at Tambora was probably the most violent volcanic explosion in the last couple thousand years. (Also one of the hottest--pyroclastic flows were hot enough to melt glass and almost instantly carbonize a person). It produced an ash plume more than 30 miles high, which spread through out the atmosphere, reducing temperatures by a few degrees Fahrenheit throughout the northern hemisphere. (It obviously had impacts in the middle and southern latitudes, but the historical records aren't as extant). In New England, the result was a drought combined with frosts and low temperatures through the summer of 1816. In Europe, the result was cooler temperatures and significant increases in rain. In both cases, crops would not grow or were destroyed. According to the documentary, an estimated 200,000 people died in Europe because of food shortages (the documentary explains that it is often difficult to determine deaths from famine precisely because most people don't die from starvation, but the lack of food makes them more susceptible to other illnesses which result in death; thus the death statistics are determined by looking at deaths during the given period and subtracting out the normal number of deaths). Interesting to me is that while there were localized riots, and mob attacks in Europe--people thought increases in food prices was excessive, and so there apparently were attacks on bakers, as well as attacks on some of the landed gentry--there were no massive uprisings or collapse of governments. However, the researchers cited in the documentary believe that much of the social unrest in Europe following the Napoleonic wars, which has traditionally been given political roots, actually stemmed from poor economic conditions caused by the "year without a summer." I bring this up because in reading about the 14th Century's Black Death, I see similar themes. John Kelly's The Great Mortality gives one of the most detailed looks at the spread of the Black Death through Europe. Although the disease killed up to 50% in some regions--and although entire villages were wiped out by plague--it did not cause the collapse of civilization as we generally define that term. (It had long lasting social and economic impacts, and probably marks the demarcation between Medieval society and modern, so it probably marked the collapse of one "culture" or "civilization", as that term is used by Spengler, to be replaced by another). That does not mean that social order did not suffer--there were pogroms against Jews, which made convenient scapegoats (by this time, Europe had imported because of the Crusades the Islamic intolerance against Jews). But the courts, church, and other government/social bodies continued to operate. Watching the documentary, my mind wondered to some of the signs of the endtimes given in Revelation. After the opening of the Seventh Seal, one of the events is:
8 And the second angel sounded, and as it were a great mountain burning with fire was cast into the sea: and the third part of the sea became blood;
(Rev. 8:8). Although today we can imagine this as a meteor, it may also represent a volcanic eruption. A surviving witness of the Tambora explosion--a native king that happened to survive--reported that when the volcano erupted, there were initially three plumes of fire shooting out of the top of the mountain (at that time, Tambora was the tallest mountain in Indonesia). The explosion was somewhat later. Although Tambora's blast appears to have been directed upward, it needn't be so. During the Mount St. Helen's eruption, the northeastern slope of the mountain collapsed, directing much of the ash plume and force of the explosion to the northeast (and sparing Portland). If one was presented with a volcano spewing a fiery plum as Tambora had initially, then exploding so that one slope sloughed off into the sea, it would match the description given by John in Revelations. Remember, though, that the events preceding the Second Coming are compared to birth pangs--intense, but of limited duration, and forgotten in the joy of a new baby. The joy of the Millenium will make the tribulations seems as naught.
This article was prompted by a comment to my October 2013 article on the 1258 (now believed to be 1257) A.D. Rinjani, Indonesia, volcanic eruption. Robert Nason noted a Zuni myth that supported a link between the Rinjani explosion and the decline of the Anasazi in the American Southwest.
The Rinjani blast was likely twice as large as the 1815 Mt. Tambora blast, and apparently marks the beginning of the Little Ice Age. More accurate dating places the eruption as actually occurring between May and October of 1257. According to the National Geographic article just cited, "[t]he cataclysm blasted 10 cubic miles (40 cubic kilometers) of debris up to 27 miles (43 kilometers) high into the sky, producing fallout that settled around the world." Moreover:
Though the eruption was equatorial, its impact was felt and noted around the world. "The climate was disturbed for at least two years after the eruption," Lavigne said. Evidence of this was found in studies of tree rings that revealed abnormal growth rates, climate models, and historical records from as far afield as Europe."
Medieval chronicles, for example, describe the summer of 1258 as unseasonably cold, with poor harvests and incessant rains that triggered destructive floods—a "year without a summer." The winter immediately following the eruption was warmer in western Europe, however, as would be expected from high-sulfur eruptions in the tropics. The team cites historical records from Arras (northern France) that speak of a winter so mild "that frost barely lasted for more than two days," and even in January 1258 "violets could be observed, and strawberries and apple trees were in blossom."
Prior to the location of the eruption being pinpointed, Richard B. Stothers penned a paper discussing the impact of the 1257 explosion. (See "Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258," Climatic Change 45: 361–374, 2000). From his abstract:
Somewhere in the tropics, a volcano exploded violently during the year 1258, producing a massive stratospheric aerosol veil that eventually blanketed the globe. Arctic and Antarctic ice cores suggest that this was the world’s largest volcanic eruption of the past millennium. According to contemporary chronicles, the stratospheric dry fog possibly manifested itself in Europe as a persistently cloudy aspect of the sky and also through an apparently total darkening of the eclipsed Moon. Based on a sudden temperature drop for several months in England, the eruption’s initiation date can be inferred to have been probably January 1258. The frequent cold and rain that year led to severe crop damage and famine throughout much of Europe. Pestilence repeatedly broke out in 1258 and 1259; it occurred also in the Middle East, reportedly there as plague. Another very cold winter followed in 1260–1261. The troubled period’s wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes appear to have contributed in part to the rise of the European flagellant movement of 1260, one of the most bizarre social phenomena of the Middle Ages.
Stothers reports that, from the accounts of the time, the initial impact was a "dry fog" that dimmed the sunlight and darkened two eclipses of the moon. This "fog" apparently had disappeared by 1262. Stothers also remarks on the impact on weather. He writes:
[A] long cold spell occurred in England between February and June that year [1258]. The same winter is also reported to have been a severe one at Prague in Bohemia and the springtime was noted as harsh in northern Iceland.
... After the very rainy autumn of 1258, the following winter in England was unexceptional. Matthew Paris (1259), who regularly reports in detail on the weather near London, indicates nothing unusual for that winter. The Chronicle of Novgorod (1471) mentions an odd frosty day in Russia during April 1259. The summertime afterward was hot and dry in Austria and Germany and hot and stormy in France, while it rained a lot in England.
Less is known about the weather in the following year, 1260. After a very mild winter, central France experienced severe cold and snow during April. But the summer weather was alternately dry and stormy, with a lot of hail, near Prague and likewise near London.
It was not until later that year that Europe suffered another very cold winter. The winter of 1260–1261 struck Iceland so severely that people were forced to slaughter many of their livestock (Thórdarson, 1284) and ice formed in the sea all around the island. Very harsh winter conditions are also reported for England and for northwestern Italy. In Alsace, the Ill River froze, but it is not clear whether this happened in the winter of 1260–1261 or of 1261–1262, or in both winters.
(Citations omitted). The weather negatively impacted crops. Stothers indicates:
... The heavy summer and autumn rains in 1257 and 1258 ruined crops throughout England, western Germany, France, and northern Italy. Severe famine is explicitly attested in many localities, and can also be inferred elsewhere from the high prices of staple agricultural commodities.
England was especially hard hit. Famine in the countryside drove thousands of villagers into London, where many of them perished from hunger. Richard of Cornwall, the king of Germany, was able to ship some grain from Germany and Holland into London to alleviate the distress of the poor who could afford to buy. The price of food throughout England rose, nonetheless, and eventually specie itself became in short supply, having been already depleted by heavy tax exactions at the hands of both the church and state.
(Citations omitted). Apparently, France experienced poor crops and famine as well, while records indicate higher food prices in the Italian states. Finally, contemporary reports record a famine during 1258 in the general region of Iraq, Syria, and southeastern Turkey.
Stothers also writes that the cooler weather contributed to outbreaks of disease. Beyond the expected diseases due to poor or inadequate diet, Stothers observes:
The main scourge of human beings in the period, however, was the great pestilence of April 1259. This epidemic is known to have struck London, other parts of France, Italy, and, probably, Austria. Riccobaldo of Ferrara (1313) also mentions the pestilence, but under the year 1258. The chief symptoms were chilliness and listlessness (frigor) that could linger for several months or else kill rather suddenly. Although an influenza epidemic is a possible explanation, the diagnostic data are too few for us to go beyond this mere speculation.
In the Middle East, there was also reported a great pestilence in 1258, affecting Iraq, Syria, and southeastern Turkey. It was called ‘plague’by the 14th century Syrian chronicler Ab l-Fid’, and was said to have been especially severe in Damascus; it is also mentioned by the 15th century Egyptian historian al-Maqr z ̄. This pestilence continued until 1260, or perhaps it merely reappeared then, at least in southeastern Turkey. Because the Middle East has been historically prone to epidemics of bubonic plague, possibly that is what it was.
(Citations omitted).
This one volcanic explosion was not solely responsible for creating the Little Ice Age. There were other significant eruptions in the relevant time period. For instance, Stothers mentions that there apparently was a significant eruption about the same time in Mexico. Chaochao Gao, Alan Robock, and Caspar Ammann published a paper in 2008 in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres entitled "Volcanic Forcing of Climate over the Past 1500 Years: An Improved Ice-Core-Based Index for Climate Models," in which they state:
We see that the largest stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection events are the 1259 Unknown [Rinjani], 1453 Kuwae, 1815 Tambora eruptions in tropical regions, and the 1783 Laki eruption at high latitude of the NH [Northern Hemisphere]. The Kuwae sulfate injection was one year later in NH than SH since the peak deposition showed up a year later in Arctic ice cores. We also found a series of moderate to large sulfate injections during the 13th century, in 1228, 1259, 1268, 1275 and 1285 C.E. The cumulative volcanic sulfate flux in the 13th century was two to 10 times larger than that in any other century within the last millennium.
Also in 2008, David P. Schneider, Caspar M. Ammann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Darrell S. Kaufman published a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, entitled "Climate response to large, high-latitude and low-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Community Climate System Model" which correlated four large eruptions in 1257–58, 1269, 1278 and 1286 with the onset of cooling that started the Little Ice Age. Their modeling indicated that large volcanic eruptions in the tropics produce longer lasting climate impact world-wide, including cooler summers and reduced precipitation (up to 20% reduction in some areas). The cooling trend is reinforced by increased sea ice and ice accumulation.
This article from Science Magazine reports on research by Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado, Boulder, which analyzed ice core samples showing a sudden die off of vegetation on Baffin Island (in the Arctic) between 1275 and 1300. The article notes:
... cooling following even a huge eruption lasts only until the debris falls out of the stratosphere after a few years.
But Miller and his colleagues did some climate modeling to see what closely spaced eruptions might do to climate. In a climate model that included Arctic sea ice, repeated volcanic cooling sent sea ice southward along the east coast of Greenland. Its melting made surface waters less salty, reducing ocean mixing and thus chilling the waters that return to the Arctic. There the colder water completed a feedback loop by encouraging the formation of more sea ice. In at least some model runs, that feedback loop maintained an icy chill directly upwind of Europe for centuries.
Returning to the original comment that prompted this post, the NOAA makes the following observations about the end of the several cultures in the American Southwest:
... "The decline of Chaco apparently coincided with a prolonged drought in the San Juan Basin between 1130 and 1180. Lack of rainfall combined with an overtaxed environment may have led to food shortages. Even the clever irrigation methods of the Chacoans could not overcome prolonged drought. Under these pressures Chaco and the outliers may have experienced a slow social disintegration. The people began to drift away."
During the 13th Century, the Ancient Pueblo peoples of Mesa Verde and nearby regions also abandonded their masonry homes. For many decades the conventional wisdom was that severe drought pushed them from the region due to crop failures. Paleo proxy data from tree rings and packrat middens have been used as evidence that a severe drought had hit the region. Analysis of bones from the inhabitants which showed malnutrition seemed to confirm the drought theory.
The more scientists study the situation, the more complex the problem actually becomes. Yes, there was a drought (see the chart above which is based on tree ring data from Northeast New Mexico collected by Henri Grissino-Mayer, 1996), but was it really severe enough to force the Ancient Pueblos from their homes? Some researchers were skeptical. Evidence of cannibalism and human sacrifice was found in the region, adding new questions to the mix. Were the Ancestral Pueblos pushed out of the region by other tribes, such as the Apache and Navajo, or threatened by bands from the central valley of Mexico intent on human sacrifice? (White, 1992). Or did disease, perhaps something akin to the modern day hanta virus that can be triggered by sudden shifts from dry to wet climates, causing increases in disease carrying deer mice populations, run through the communities? (Martin, 1994)
Other researchers took another look at climate just to make sure they weren't missing something, and Matthew Salzer (2000) noted there was significant volcanic activity, with one particular event-- likely the largest of the Holocene that occurred in 1259 A.D. -- that may have chilled the atmosphere, thereby shortening the growing season and perhaps disrupting normal rainfall patterns.
Topping the list was the eruption at Samalas, Indonesia in 1257, followed by the Kuwae event of 1452, and Tambora, also in Indonesia, in 1815.
Although the study plots earlier events, the researchers don't know exactly what these explosions were.
Based on the timeline, however, it's possible to estimate what these events may have been.
For example, the fourth most powerful eruption took place in around 674 AD, which could have been the Pago event in Bismarck or the eastern Alaskan eruption in Mount Churchill believed to have take place around 700 AD.
Fifth and sixth place occurred between 531 to 566 AD and could be the Rabaul Caldera explosions in Papua New Guinea that is thought to have took place around 535 onwards.
The seventh most powerful explosion happened shortly after Samalas, and may have been Quilatoa in the Andes in 1280.
Based on the 450 AD date of the eighth place event suggests it was Ilopango in Central America, ninth appears to have been the GrÃmsvötn and Laki eruptions in Iceland around 1785.
While tenth place happened shortly before Samalas and could have been an earlier eruption of Mount Rinjani, Indonesia.
It is believed to be the world's biggest volcano, and if it erupted, much of the US would be covered in ash.
However, researchers believe the massive supervolcano beneath Yellowstone National Park in the US - which researchers recently found was 2.5 times bigger than they thought - could actually soon be dead.
Researchers analysed water and gas, and sat [sic] it could already be on its deathbed.
Not a lot of detail, I know, but it is consistent with other information I've seen indicating that the caldera has been subsiding.
The Poas Volcano in Costa Rica has erupted. The volcano is active, and so eruptions aren't uncommon. The Daily News reports:
The research institute, affiliated with the National University of Costa Rica, said the blast was a phreatic explosion which occurs when magma or hot rocks heat surface water to the point where it boils and quickly explodes in a burst of stem.
Earlier this month, Costa Rica's National Seismological Network (RSN) released a report saying that the volcano’s crater was glowing red-hot with molten rock and was emitting sulfur.
Small-scale eruptions are not uncommon for the 8,884 foot giant. Geology site Volcano Discovery said there have been eruptions during every year of this decade so far.
