A Simple M60 Sling Modification To Make Your Own Tactical Sling

Instructions and photos at Mason Dixon Tactical. (H/t Western Rifle Shooters)

Ragnarok--Part III: What Are Russia's Intentions? (Update)

As I suspected, Russia isn't going to let Ukraine leave its sphere of influence so easily. The Guardian reports:

With Russian armoured personnel carriers on the move in the Crimean peninsula, world leaders have sought assurances from the Kremlin that Moscow is not acting to escalate the violence in Ukraine.

A convoy of nine APCs painted with the Russian flag were seen on the road between the port city of Sevastopol and the regional capital of Sinferopol. Reporters spotted them parked on the side of a road near the town of Bakhchisarai, apparently stalled after one vehicle developed a mechanical fault.

The Russian foreign ministry said movements of vehicles belonging to the Russian Black Sea Fleet were prompted by the need to ensure the security of its base in Sevastopol. Russia is supposed to notify Ukraine of any troop movements outside the naval base. The Ukrainian defence ministry said it had no information about the vehicles' movements.

... Military troops in unmarked uniforms resembling Russian uniforms took over two airports in Crimea, Simferopol airport and a military facility at Sevastopol, overnight, and there were reports on Friday evening that Simferopol airport was not allowing flights from Kiev.

After the airport seizures, Andriy Paruby, the newly appointed top Ukrainian security official, accused Russia of waging "a military invasion and occupation". "These are separatist groups … commanded by the Kremlin," Paruby said of the armed military men patrolling streets in the Crimean cities of Simferopol and Sevastapol.

Moscow has denied launching a military offensive in the region.

Journalists and the Ukrainian border guard have reported a fleet of more than 10 Russian military helicopters entering Ukrainian air space over Crimea, flying from Russia.

... In Simferopol, groups of armed men arrived overnight at the main airport serving the region. They wore military fatigues with no insignia and refused to talk, though one told news agencies they were part of a self-defence unit who wanted to ensure that no "fascists" arrived in the region from Kiev.

At Sevastopol airport, a military airport that handles few commercial flights, a man who said he was a captain in the tactical aviation brigade but declined to give his name, told the Guardian there were about 300 people of unknown identity inside the airport. "We don't consider it any invasion of our territory," he said without elaborating.

He said the men looked like military, were wearing two different types of uniform and were armed with sniper rifles and AK-47s. "We don't know who they are, nor where they've come from."

He added that there were two large trucks inside. "They [the vehicles] looked like they could contain 50 people at a push, so how they got 300 people inside I don't know," he said

A Major Fidorenko, from the Ukrainian military based at the airport, said the Ukrainians had been in touch with the unknown gunmen, who said they were there "to prevent unwanted landings of helicopters and planes".

 The BBC also has confirmed some movement of Russian vehicles into Ukraine.

The Daily Beast is reporting that the "troops" which took over the airports are not Russian military, but, rather, Russian "security consultants":

Private security contractors working for the Russian military are the unmarked troops who have now seized control over two airports in the Ukrainian province of Crimea, according to informed sources in the region. And those contractors could be setting the stage for ousted President Viktor Yanukovich to come to the breakaway region.

... but the troops are being directed by the Russian government. Although not confirmed, informed sources in Moscow are telling their American interlocutors that the troops belong to Vnevedomstvenaya Okhrana, the private security contracting bureau inside the Russian interior ministry that hires mercenaries to protect Russian Navy installations and assets in Crimea. Other diplomatic sources said that the troops at the airport were paramilitary troops but not specifically belonging to Vnevedomstvenaya Okhrana.

“They don’t have Russian military uniforms and the Russia government is denying they are part of the Russian military. But these are people that are legally allowed to perform services to the Russian fleet.” 

“They don’t have Russian military uniforms and the Russia government is denying they are part of the Russian military. Actually most of them may be Ukrainian citizens. But these are people that are legally allowed to perform services to the Russian fleet,” said Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest.

A Russian Foreign Ministry statement Friday did not address the troops at the airport but did acknowledge that armored elements of the Black Sea Fleet had been moved in Crimea, “associated with the need to ensure the protection of locations of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine, what is happening in full accordance with the basic Russian-Ukrainian agreements on the Black Sea Fleet.”

 That the Russians have made some movement of troops into Ukraine (specifically, Crimea) is to be expected because of their need to safeguard their naval base. Certainly, if there was a revolution in Cuba, the U.S. would probably airlift troops to protect Guantanamo without necessarily having any intention of "invading" the rest of the country.

The Daily Beast article raises a secondary purpose, as well:

Second, the forces could be paving the way for Yanukovich to travel to Crimea, where he will maintain that he is still the president of all Ukraine. In fact, Yanukovich was involved in the decision to deploy the security contractors to the airport, he said.

“They are providing an extended perimeter of security. Yanukovich certainly has the authority (in Moscow’s view) to allow these units to extend their service wherever it is appropriate,” said Simes. “I am told by informed sources in Moscow that this is what it happening.”

... But the private security forces provide a loophole for Vladimir Putin; he can claim there is no Russian “military” intervention while using Russian-controlled forces to exert influence inside Ukraine. The plan would be to give the new Crimean government a space to hold a referendum and then elections, thereby establishing a province with some autonomy from Kiev.

 Another article from the Daily Beast sums up the potential for war:

Demography may not be destiny, but in this case it’s trying like hell to be. According to Andrei Malgin, a writer for Ehko Moskvy, as of 2001, 58.3 percent of Crimea’s population was Russian. But Russians outnumber other ethnicities, such as the Tartars, in only a few raions or municipalities: Feodosiya, Simferopol and Yalta among them. Elsewhere throughout Crimea—Krasnoperekopsk, Dzhankoy, Pervomaysk—Russians are in a minority. If armed clashes were to break out in a region-wide scale, the “victor” would by no means be predetermined. What the media has rather glibly been defining for months as a geographical or ethnolinguistic East-West split for Ukraine as a whole might actually be better applied to Crimea. But here it runs along a North-South divide, with pro-Russian concentrations more heavily distributed closer to the Black Sea.

Yesterday, demonstrations and counter-demonstrations broke in Simferopol, leading to at least one death, probably from heart attack. “Glory to Ukraine” (shouted by Tartars) competed with “Russia!” (shouted by Russians). Refat Chubarov, the Crimean Tartar leader, has even called on his people to form self-defense militias to guard against attack or provocations, as Ukrainska Pravda reported. Tartars have even asked Ankara for military intervention to protect them against the Russians: whispers, however deafly received, of another Balaclava campaign. Meanwhile, news emerged that the Russian military would now be conducting a large-scale “snap” exercise featuring 150,000 soldiers (as Naval War College Professor John Schindler points out, this is roughly the number that the United States dispatched into Iraq in 2003) for what Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called “action in crisis situations that threaten the nation’s military security.” This drill, running from February 28 until March 3, would encompass the entirety of Russia’s Western Military District, which spans from the Arctic to the borders of Ukraine and Belarus, as well as the Second Army of the Central Military District, the command of the Aerospace Defense, the Airborne Troops, and the Long-Range and Military Transport Aviations. The district that would theoretically invade Crimea isn’t involved in the exercise: both saber rattling and plausible deniability done right.

 Update: Some analysis from USA Today:

The appearance of Russian speaking armed troops who've seized airports and government buildings in Crimea seems to follow a pattern that has allowed Russia to assert dominance over former Soviet republics that tried to shift toward Europe, an analyst says.

"This is a pattern of Russian policy, divide and conquer, use your leverage through separatist and ethnic disputes" to pressure post-Soviet countries to remain in Russia's orbit, says Damon Wilson, former White House director of European Affairs under then-president George W. Bush.

Russia's message is: "If you go to Europe you lose territory where Russia has its military bases," Wilson said.

... In Georgia, Russia took military actions in 2008 after making similar warnings to the Georgian governmentthat it must protect pro-Russian peoples there. Like in Crimea, armed men rose up to take control of a breakaway province. In Georgia that action was followed by the arrival of Russian "peacekeeper" troops that pushed out government troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia and remain there today.

In Moldova, like Ukraine and Georgia, declared independence following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Soviet troops stationed there shifted allegiance to Russia, and when Russia-speaking separatists in Transnistria demanded to secede Moscow backed their grievances.The troops have never left despite repeated requests by Moldova's president for their withdrawal from his country's soil.

And when Moldova tried to strengthen ties with Europe, it too encountered obstacles from Russia.

... A bill introduced recently by Russian lawmakers would simplify the process of incorporating new territories into the country. If passed, the bill would allow territories to join Russia through a referendum, sidestepping international treaties.

As it happens, Crimea's parliament has asked for such a referendum to take place in May.

"AR v. AK: Can't We All Just Get Along"

Dan Zimmerman, at The Truth About Guns, has apparently become an AK convert. He writes:

Like countless other red-blooded American males, I was attracted to the AR-15 rifle platform simply because it has been the rifle of choice for our military for a very long time. ... The chief features that I find most attractive include the AR’s innate modularity, its accuracy and effectiveness when used in the way it was intended. But . . .

Is it the be-all and end-all in assault rifles? [Note: I’m using the term “assault rifle” in its more technical sense, to describe a select-fire rifle, chambered for a cartridge that falls between a pistol cartridge and a high-power rifle cartridge, and that uses a detachable box magazine]. I’ve also developed a nearly equal admiration and fondness for the AK platform. Is that heresy? Depends on who you ask, I guess. But I’d like to suggest we not make this a matter of either/or, but rather both/and.

... The AK is elegant in its simplicity, with field stripping down to the bolt taking a matter of seconds without requiring a single tool. Cleaning is easily done and reassembly also very simple. The AK is famous for its generous tolerances allowing it to keep functioning in conditions that will cause an AR to sputter and choke.

 Read the whole thing.

Making Your Own Strike-Anywhere Matches

Dirttime has instructions for making your own strike-anywhere matches.

Large Solar Flare

From Space.com:

The sun fired off a major solar flare late Monday (Feb. 24), making it the most powerful sun eruption of the year so far and one of the strongest in recent years.

The massive X4.9-class solar flare erupted from an active sunspot, called AR1990, at 7:49 p.m. EST (0049 Feb. 25 GMT). NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured high-definition video of the monster solar flare. The spaceecraft recording amazing views the solar flare erupting with a giant burst of plasma, called a coronal mass ejection, or CME.

The flare wasn't aimed at Earth, but the story notes that if it had been, it would have caused a severe geomagnetic storm. The report adds, though:

Earth isn't totally out of the woods yet, however. This region of the sun is set to rotate more fully into view of Earth over the next week, according to officials with the NOAA-led Space Weather Prediction Center.

Russia Mobilizing Troops?

Voice of America News reports:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered an urgent drill to check the combat readiness of the armed forces in western and central Russia, including areas near the border with Ukraine.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says the drill will involve army, navy and air force troops and will check the force's "readiness to deal with crisis situations that threaten the nation's military security."

The announcement Wednesday comes as pro-Russia demonstrators faced off with supporters of Ukraine's new pro-Western interim leaders in the southern city of Simferopol.

Small-scale clashes broke out between the shouting protesters, some of whom were injured in the incident, which happened in the courtyard of an administrative building in the Crimean capital.

The Crimean peninsula is mainly made up of Russian speakers who support Moscow, though it also includes a minority Tatar group that tends to take an anti-Russia stance.

The Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet is based on the Crimean coast, and Russia's RIA Novosti state news agency Wednesday quoted Shoigu as saying Moscow is "carefully watching what is happening in Crimea" and taking measures to "guarantee the safety" of the fleet's "facilities, infrastructure and arsenals."

Poas Volcano Erupts

The Poas Volcano in Costa Rica has erupted. The volcano is active, and so eruptions aren't uncommon. The Daily News reports:

The research institute, affiliated with the National University of Costa Rica, said the blast was a phreatic explosion which occurs when magma or hot rocks heat surface water to the point where it boils and quickly explodes in a burst of stem.

Earlier this month, Costa Rica's National Seismological Network (RSN) released a report saying that the volcano’s crater was glowing red-hot with molten rock and was emitting sulfur. 

Small-scale eruptions are not uncommon for the 8,884 foot giant. Geology site Volcano Discovery said there have been eruptions during every year of this decade so far.

More from the Costa Rica Star.

Ragnarok--Part II

Events in the Ukraine continue to move at a fast pace as the country threatens to fly apart. Meanwhile, Obama sticks his head in the sand.

First, an update on events. BBC News reports:

Ukraine's opposition has asserted its authority over Kiev and parliament in a day of fast-paced events.

MPs have replace the parliamentary speaker and attorney general, appointed a new pro-opposition interior minister and voted to free jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.

Police appear to have abandoned their posts across the capital.

Protesters in Kiev have walked unchallenged into the president's official and residential buildings.

President Viktor Yanukovych and opposition leaders signed a peace deal on Friday after several days of violence in which dozens of people died in a police crackdown on months of protest.

But the deal failed to end the protests and huge crowds remain in Independence Square, the Maidan.

The opposition have called for elections before 25 May, earlier than envisaged in Friday's peace deal.

The president's whereabouts are unclear - his aides say he is in Kharkhiv, close to the border with Russia.

Presidential aide Hanna Herman said he was due to give a televised address later.

A gathering of deputies from the south-east and Crimea - traditionally Russian-leaning areas - is taking place there, but Ms Herman said the president had "no intention" of attending, nor of leaving the country.

However, USA Today reports that Yanukovych has denied he has resigned:

Ukraine's parliament voted to remove President Viktor Yanukovych on Saturday, even as the embattled leader remained defiant, calling the country's political crisis a "coup" and saying he has no intention of resigning or leaving the country.

"They are trying to scare me. I have no intention to leave the country. I am not going to resign, I'm the legitimately elected president," Yanukovych said in a televised statement. "What we see today is a coup — I did everything to prevent the bloodshed. We adopted two amnesty laws. We did everything to stabilize the political situation."

"I will do everything to protect my country from breakup, to stop bloodshed," he added.

 The Associated Press reports that Yanukovych's primary political rival has been released from prison, and many his political support is slipping:

Hours after her release from prison, former Ukrainian prime minister and opposition icon Yulia Tymoshenko appeared before an ecstatic throng at the protester encampment in Ukraine's capital Saturday, praising the demonstrators killed in violence this week and urging the protesters to keep occupying the square.

Her speech to the crowd of about 50,000, made from a wheelchair because of the severe back problems she suffered in 2 1/2 years of imprisonment, was the latest stunning development in the fast-moving Ukrainian political crisis.

... Her call for protests to continue and Yanukovych's defiance leaves unsettled the fate of Ukraine, a nation of 46 million of huge strategic importance to Russia, Europe and the United States.

The country's western regions, angered by corruption in Yanukovych's government, want to be closer to the European Union and have rejected Yanukovych's authority in many cities. Eastern Ukraine, which accounts for the bulk of the nation's economic output, favors closer ties with Russia and has largely supported the president. The three-month protest movement was prompted by the president's decision to abort an agreement with the EU in favor of a deal with Moscow.

"The people have won, because we fought for our future," said opposition leader Vitali Klitschko to a euphoric crowd of thousands gathered on Kiev's Independence Square. Beneath a cold, heavy rain, protesters who have stood for weeks and months to pressure the president to leave congratulated each other and shouted "Glory to Ukraine!"

"It is only the beginning of the battle," Klitschko said, urging calm and telling protesters not to take justice into their own hands.

The president's support base crumbled further as a leading governor and a mayor from the eastern city of Kharkiv fled Russia.

Oleh Slobodyan, a spokesman for the border guard service, told The Associated Press that Kharkiv regional governor Mikhaylo Dobkin and Kharkiv Mayor Hennady Kernes left Ukraine across the nearby Russian border.

 Reuters reports:

In a television interview which the station said was also conducted in Kharkiv, Yanukovich said he would not resign or leave the country, and called decisions by parliament "illegal".

"The events witnessed by our country and the whole world are an example of a coup d'etat," he said, comparing it to the rise of the Nazis to power in Germany in the 1930s. He said he had also come under fire. "My car was shot at. I am not afraid. I feel sorrow for my country," he told UBR television.

Interfax news agency said Yanukovich was refused exit from the country by border guards when he tried to fly out from the city of Donetsk.

Walter Russell Mead provides some analysis on the subject:

... Ukrainian society is unable to produce a strong and united government that could limit the influence of foreign interests and lobbies so that the Ukrainian state and people would follow a consistent course toward either Moscow or Brussels, much less find some kind of effective pathway in between. Meanwhile, given the inability of internal forces to set a firm course, Russia lacks the resources and the West lacks the will to attach Ukraine firmly and irrevocably to either camp. Thus we see what we see: a succession of failed governments as the country flounders and slithers in the mist.

There are three possible futures for Ukraine. In the short term some kind of continuation of the status quo of indecision and drift seems the most likely alternative, but such a volatile and unsatisfactory status quo is unlikely to endure into the indefinite future. When and if the status quo finally ends, Ukraine can go one of two ways. One is partition: the east and the west go their separate ways, as the eastern portion returns to the Kremlin’s embrace, and the west prepares for the EU. The alternative is that either Moscow or the West succeeds in drawing the whole country to its side.

 Mead suggests that partition may be the best course for Russia, as it cannot afford a war and hostile occupation:

A rationalist would suggest to the Kremlin that partition was its best hope. Solzhenitsyn once gloomily speculated that the Ukrainians on the west bank of the Dnieper were lost to the Russian motherland as a result of Soviet history; the Kremlin might well think about trying to move quickly towards a de facto partition with the dividing line as close to that river as possible in the north, and stretching across it to Moldova in the south. It would be surprising if the Kremlin has not entertained the possibility of partition as a second-best outcome and wouldn’t switch quickly to promoting it if all hope of absorbing the whole country is lost.

There are reports this morning that Yanukovych (who must now fear criminal prosecution if his opponents consolidate their authority across the whole country) is calling for the formation of militias in the east. He appears to be ‘forting up’ in Kharkov, Ukraine’s second city and the metropolis of the eastern part of the country. If the Kremlin backs this play, it is a sign that Russia is, among other things, preparing the ground for partition if nothing better can be gained.

One should remember that Putin, conscious of being the weaker party in his high stakes geopolitical game with the West, likes to move swiftly and present his adversaries with facts on the ground. This worked brilliantly for him in Georgia and again in Syria where the exploitation of Western indecision and muddled thinking allowed a weak Russia to score significant gains. Putin at this point does not seem to have much respect for his counterparts in either Washington or Brussels. He believes he is up against dithering wimps who profess high ideals but are deeply risk averse. He may calculate that moving quickly to solidify the power of a pro-Russian government in the eastern rump of Ukraine is his best move — and indeed, this may well have been part of his end game calculation well before the current crisis began. Russian thinking and policymaking is heavily focused on Ukraine; it stretches credulity to suppose that Russian planners have not thought long and hard about their alternatives in what, for them, is the most vital arena in world politics today.

 David P. Goldman also believes partition offers the best option:

I’ve argued for years that partition is the best solution for Ukraine, which never was a country but an almalgam of provinces left over from failed empires–Russian, Austrian, Lithuanian, Ottoman–cobbled together into a Soviet “republic” and cast adrift after the collapse of Communism. Lviv (Lemberg) was a German-speaking city, part of Silesia; before World War II a quarter of its people were Jews. Jews were two-fifths of the population of Odessa.

A fifth of the population, mainly in the East, are ethnic Russians; a tenth, mainly in the West, are Uniate Catholics, who have a special place in Catholic policy since the papacy of John Paul II. Ukrainian nationality is as dubious as Byelorussian nationality: neither of them had a dictionary of their language until 1918.

... Russia never will permit the integration of Ukraine into NATO; were it to come to that, Russia would use force, and the West would stand by cursing. But Russia will settle for half a loaf, namely a Russian-allied Eastern Ukraine. Whatever we do, Ukraine will continue its slow, sad slide into oblivion. The diplomats have the dour duty of managing this decline with the minimum of friction.

So what is Obama's stance? He is urging a unity government, over a country where unity is unlikely. (See also the official statement from the White House).

Ragnarok

Tomorrow is the date Ragnarok is supposed to begin.

Ragnarok, the final bloody battle predicted in Norse mythology approaches on February 22.

Believers say that when the fateful day arrives Earth will split open, unleashing the inhabitants of Hel.

The wolf, Fenrir, son of Loki, will break out of his prison and the Midgard snake Jormungand will rise from the sea.

Nidhogg, the dragon of the underworld, will gnaw at the world tree, Yggdrasil, until it groans and wilts.

Then as the ice giants of Jotunheim come thundering over the horizon, the dead heroes of Valhalla will descend from heaven to fight them.

These events were prophesied by the god Odin who had hung himself from Yggdrasill for nine days so he could die and be re-born with wisdom and foresight.

The Viking apocalypse may not be starting tomorrow, but events in the Ukraine are heating up, and could possibly lead to a civil war ... or worse. Earlier it had appeared that the protests in Kiev might simmer down, as opposition leaders signed an agreement with Ukrainian President, Victor Yanukovich. That is not what has happened. Rather, protesters have denounced the deal. The Globe and Mail reports:

The future of Ukraine appears more uncertain than ever after thousands of protesters angrily denounced an agreement aimed at ending months of unrest.

While politicians managed to reach a deal on Friday that will see the removal of embattled President Viktor Yanukovych by December, the thousands of protesters still on the streets here made it clear they want him out immediately and some vowed to take up arms if that doesn’t happen.

“The Right Sector is not putting down our weapons,” said Dmytro Yarosh, who leads the right-wing organization which some have labelled extremist. “We are not going to stop any of our activities until Yanukovych resigns.”

It was a day of drama and intrigue in Kiev. Under intense pressure from European diplomats alarmed at the increasingly violent confrontation between the Moscow-backed government and its opponents, Mr. Yanukovych and the three main opposition party leaders emerged with an agreement to set up a unity government and hold early elections.

The negotiations were aimed at calming the popular uprising – dozens of people were killed in the now wrecked centre of the capital this week – but they risk exacerbating tensions between the West and Russia over the future of Ukraine.

A Russian envoy in Kiev refused to sign the accord, although EU mediators signed as witnesses. But whether Russia will accept the concessions is unclear. Later on Friday, U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin had what was described as “constructive” discussions, speaking by phone for about an hour, mainly about the Ukraine crisis.

Given Obama's record at foreign relations, I'll hazard a guess that nothing in the conversation was "constructive," but it was a complete disaster.

Meanwhile, the rats have begun to flee the sinking ship, so to speak. Mediaite and Hot Air both indicate that Yanukovych has fled Kiev. From Mediaite:

The Russian-backed president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich, fled the capital city of Kiev on Friday evening shortly after signing a deal with opposition protesters aimed at ending the months-long standoff. The protests in Ukraine against the government’s proposal to avoid integrating with the European Union in favor of strengthening ties with Russia have grown deadly in recent days.

The State Department confirmed on Friday that Yanukovich left the city of Kiev to hold meetings with officials in the nation’s second largest city, Kharkiv. There, the Ukrainian president would be greeted with anti-Yanukovich protesters.

Some, however, are suggesting that Yanukovich’s move may not be as innocent as his office is leading the international press to believe. A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reporter tweeted on Friday that the Ukrainian president’s belongings are being prepared for travel as well.

And he is not the only one leaving. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports:

... However, charter flight records published on Twitter and by Ukrainian media suggest that dozens of Yanukovych allies appear to have fled -- or attempted to flee -- the country as the president's regime has grown increasingly shaky.

With the current death toll from protest violence at nearly 80, Yanukovych announced a peace deal on February 21, establishing early presidential elections, a national unity government, and reduced presidential powers.

But even before Yanukovych revealed the terms of the deal, the prospect of such an outcome was reportedly enough to send regime stalwarts scurrying to Kyiv's Zhulyany airport, where records indicate that as many as 180 charter flights have been registered since February 19. (A roll call at the parliament session on February 21 showed only 131 of the Party of Regions' 204 deputies in attendance.)

One log, published online, showed flights to international destinations as well as locations in Ukraine's Russian-speaking south and east. The destinations include Moscow, Frankfurt, Budapest, Istanbul, Kharkhiv, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Simferopol.

Many of the surnames on the passenger list appear to correspond to those of high-ranking members of the Yanukovych regime, as well as police officials and oligarchs.

The Daily Beast reports on a law passed by the Ukrainian parliament that would require an investigation into violence against protesters. The same news story goes on:

The second group of MPs took to their heels to the airport with their families and big suitcases, undoubtedly stuffed with cash. They have lots of places to escape to. One of those rumored to have fled: Serhyi Klyuyev, who has close ties to D.C. lobbying firms and who is the brother to Andryi Klyuyev, one of the country’s most powerful politicians. Serhyi’s daughter is said to have an apartment in a luxury building at Clearwater Beach, Florida. Meanwhile, the parents of Yevhen Heller, a key member of the Yanukovych-Ahmetov clan, reportedly live in Brooklyn. While snipers are shooting students in Kiev on the orders of Heller’s boss, his family gets to take advantage of American democracy. If civil war starts in Ukraine, Heller could even ostensibly try to flee to the U.S. through America’s Family Reunion program.

Meanwhile, Yanukovych looks to be increasingly alone. State media reported that he had been prepared to declare a state of emergency, but nobody from the National Security and Defense Council signed the papers for the decree, and so he left his signature off, too. Meanwhile, someone for the opposition drafted a document for the president to read—it accused him of acting like a tyrant. Foreign diplomats have visited Yanukovych to try to persuade him to stop the carnage. But it’s clear who is real friend is: earlier, he allegedly put in a call to Moscow asking Putin if it would be possible to get some guarantees in case he needed to escape. It’s said Putin gave an evasive answer. Yanukovych was left as alone as a Führer in his bunker.

 Allahpundit, writing at Hot Air, warns that the result may be a division of Ukraine along ethnic lines, with a portion of the country seeking to join Russia. This could lead to a civil war. Moreover, he quotes from the Financial Times:

Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea to protect the ethnic Russian population and its military base there, a senior government official has told the FT.

“If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the official said. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” In August 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia after the Georgian military launched a surprise attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia in an effort to establish its dominance over the republic…

However, many government officials say in private that Ukraine falls inside Russia’s sphere of influence. “We will not allow Europe and the US to take Ukraine from us. The states of the former Soviet Union, we are one family,” said a foreign policy official. “They think Russia is still as weak as in the early 1990s but we are not.”

 And there is this op-ed from Reuters:

Ukraine has had two weeks to find a compromise in its Russia versus the West dispute. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been focused on promoting his soft image with the Winter Olympics in Sochi. With the games ending Sunday, however, time has run out and the crisis in Kiev and other cities is only getting worse.

If Putin uses Russian history as a guide, it would not be out of the question that Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. After all, Soviet leaders did just this to retain control during the Hungarian uprising in 1956 and the 1968 Prague spring in Czechoslovakia.

For Putin stands to lose influence and his ability to affect policy in Ukraine if the opposition gains control. This is at the core of the current Ukraine crisis.

Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich disregarded a much-anticipated association agreement with the European Union in November to sign a $15 billion bailout deal with Russia. It was this Kremlin-influenced act that sparked the protests — first peaceful but now increasingly violent. Ukraine now appears divided into an eastern part that supports Yanukovich and the Russian deal, and the Europe-prone western half.

So the real question may well be: What does Russia want?

Looking to history, Moscow wants what it has always wanted — Ukraine, translated as the Edge (of Russia) and also known as Malorossiya or Small Russia. ...

"Like a Broken Vessel"

(Source: Wikimedia)

Last October, at the LDS General Conference, Jeffrey R. Holland gave a talk entitled "Like a Broken Vessel" about dealing with emotional problems. Just a few excerpts from his talk:

... In striving for some peace and understanding in these difficult matters, it is crucial to remember that we are living—and chose to live—in a fallen world where for divine purposes our pursuit of godliness will be tested and tried again and again. Of greatest assurance in God’s plan is that a Savior was promised, a Redeemer, who through our faith in Him would lift us triumphantly over those tests and trials, even though the cost to do so would be unfathomable for both the Father who sent Him and the Son who came. It is only an appreciation of this divine love that will make our own lesser suffering first bearable, then understandable, and finally redemptive.

Let me leave the extraordinary illnesses I have mentioned to concentrate on MDD—“major depressive disorder”—or, more commonly, “depression.” When I speak of this, I am not speaking of bad hair days, tax deadlines, or other discouraging moments we all have. Everyone is going to be anxious or downhearted on occasion. The Book of Mormon says Ammon and his brethren were depressed at a very difficult time, 2 and so can the rest of us be. But today I am speaking of something more serious, of an affliction so severe that it significantly restricts a person’s ability to function fully, a crater in the mind so deep that no one can responsibly suggest it would surely go away if those victims would just square their shoulders and think more positively—though I am a vigorous advocate of square shoulders and positive thinking!

No, this dark night of the mind and spirit is more than mere discouragement. ...

... So how do you best respond when mental or emotional challenges confront you or those you love? Above all, never lose faith in your Father in Heaven, who loves you more than you can comprehend. ... Never, ever doubt that, and never harden your heart. Faithfully pursue the time-tested devotional practices that bring the Spirit of the Lord into your life. Seek the counsel of those who hold keys for your spiritual well-being. Ask for and cherish priesthood blessings. Take the sacrament every week, and hold fast to the perfecting promises of the Atonement of Jesus Christ. Believe in miracles. I have seen so many of them come when every other indication would say that hope was lost. Hope is never lost. If those miracles do not come soon or fully or seemingly at all, remember the Savior’s own anguished example: if the bitter cup does not pass, drink it and be strong, trusting in happier days ahead.

In preventing illness whenever possible, watch for the stress indicators in yourself and in others you may be able to help. As with your automobile, be alert to rising temperatures, excessive speed, or a tank low on fuel. When you face “depletion depression,” make the requisite adjustments. Fatigue is the common enemy of us all—so slow down, rest up, replenish, and refill. Physicians promise us that if we do not take time to be well, we most assuredly will take time later on to be ill.

If things continue to be debilitating, seek the advice of reputable people with certified training, professional skills, and good values. Be honest with them about your history and your struggles. Prayerfully and responsibly consider the counsel they give and the solutions they prescribe. If you had appendicitis, God would expect you to seek a priesthood blessing and get the best medical care available. So too with emotional disorders. Our Father in Heaven expects us to use all of the marvelous gifts He has provided in this glorious dispensation.

If you are the one afflicted or a caregiver to such, try not to be overwhelmed with the size of your task. Don’t assume you can fix everything, but fix what you can. If those are only small victories, be grateful for them and be patient. Dozens of times in the scriptures, the Lord commands someone to “stand still” or “be still”—and wait. Patiently enduring some things is part of our mortal education.

For caregivers, in your devoted effort to assist with another’s health, do not destroy your own. In all these things be wise. Do not run faster than you have strength. Whatever else you may or may not be able to provide, you can offer your prayers and you can give “love unfeigned.” “Charity suffereth long, and is kind; … [it] beareth all things, … hopeth all things, endureth all things. Charity never faileth.”

Also let us remember that through any illness or difficult challenge, there is still much in life to be hopeful about and grateful for. We are infinitely more than our limitations or our afflictions! ...

Whatever your struggle, my brothers and sisters—mental or emotional or physical or otherwise—do not vote against the preciousness of life by ending it! Trust in God. Hold on in His love. Know that one day the dawn will break brightly and all shadows of mortality will flee. Though we may feel we are “like a broken vessel,” as the Psalmist says, we must remember, that vessel is in the hands of the divine potter. Broken minds can be healed just the way broken bones and broken hearts are healed. While God is at work making those repairs, the rest of us can help by being merciful, nonjudgmental, and kind.

I testify of the holy Resurrection, that unspeakable cornerstone gift in the Atonement of the Lord Jesus Christ! With the Apostle Paul, I testify that that which was sown in corruption will one day be raised in incorruption and that which was sown in weakness will ultimately be raised in power. I bear witness of that day when loved ones whom we knew to have disabilities in mortality will stand before us glorified and grand, breathtakingly perfect in body and mind. What a thrilling moment that will be! I do not know whether we will be happier for ourselves that we have witnessed such a miracle or happier for them that they are fully perfect and finally “free at last.” Until that hour when Christ’s consummate gift is evident to us all, may we live by faith, hold fast to hope, and show “compassion one of another,” I pray, in the name of Jesus Christ, amen.

(Footnotes omitted).

Cody Lundin Fired from "Dual Survival"

Cody Lundin has announced on his Facebook page that he is no longer part of "Dual Survival". He writes: "Unfortunately, I have been fired by Discovery Channel for differences over safety and health concerns on the show and will no longer be a part of Dual Survival."

The 1783 Laki Volcanic Eruption in Iceland (Updated)

Laki, Iceland (Source)

I've blogged before about the Mt. Tambora eruption of 1815, and another 1258 A.D. eruption in Indonesia, both of which had significant impacts on the climate of the time. Today, I want to shift to the northern hemisphere, and discuss the 1783 eruption of Laki in Iceland.

Volcano World gives  a brief synopsis:

The Laki eruption lasted eight months during which time about 14 cubic km of basaltic lava and some tephra were erupted. Haze from the eruption was reported from Iceland to Syria. In Iceland, the haze lead to the loss of most of the island's livestock (by eating fluorine contaminated grass), crop failure (by acid rain), and the death of one-quarter of the human residents (by famine). Ben Franklin noted the atmospheric effects of the eruption (Wood, 1992).

It is estimated that 80 Mt of sulfuric acid aerosol was released by the eruption (4 times more than El Chichon and 80 times more than Mount St. Helens).

The climatic effects of the Laki eruption are impressive. In the eastern United States, the winter average temperature was 4.8 degrees C below the 225 year average. The estimate for the temperature decrease of the entire Northern Hemisphere is about 1 degree C. The top graph shows change in acidity in micro equivalents H+ per kg in the Greenland icecap. The bottom graph represents the winter temperature records in the eastern United States. From Sigurdsson (1982).

The Laki eruption illustrates that low energy, large volume, long duration basaltic eruptions can have climatic impacts greater than large volume explosive silica-rich eruptions. The sulfur contents of basaltic magmas are 10-100 times higher than silica-rich magmas (Palais and Sigurdsson, 1989).

Initially, I want to address a 2011 paper published in Geophysical Research Letters that suggested that the Laki eruption was the not the significant cause of the decline in temperature. Live Science provides a summary:

The eruption of a volcano in Iceland is often blamed for the unusually harsh winter of 1783 to 1784 around the North Atlantic. But new research lays the blame for the extreme cold elsewhere.

Scientists find that the extremes of cold back then might actually have been triggered by the same climate effects potentially responsible for the unusually cold and snowy winter that Europe and North America experienced from 2009 to 2010.

These new findings shed light on how extremes in natural variability in climate have played and still play a key role in our world today, along with any recent global warming effects, the researchers said.

... In the winter of 2009 to 2010, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a climate phenomenon in the North Atlantic sector, went through a negative phase, meaning less warm air flowed into Europe and more cold Arctic air headed toward North America. At the same time, the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, went through a warm phase, which can potentially cause wetter, cloudier winters in northern Europe and enhanced storms to hit the central and southern latitudes of the United States.

After analyzing 600 years' worth of data in tree rings, which preserve details about the climate in which the trees grew, the scientists found that NAO and ENSO conditions during the 1783 to 1784 winter were similar to those seen in the 2009 to 2010 winter. In ranking this kind of combined NAO-ENSO events, the researchers found that the 2009 to 2010 winter showed the strongest combined effects and the 1783 to 1784 winter the second strongest in the past 600 years.

At the same time, their simulations of the effects of the Laki eruption and its dissipation through the autumn of 1783 suggest that it did not play a key role in these events.

Watts Up With That also discusses the 2011 paper. You can get a copy of the 2011 paper here (pdf). However, a subsequent paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research (VOL. 117, D23116, doi:10.1029/2012JD018414, 2012) which rebutted the 2011 paper. The 2012 paper, "Climatic impact of the long-lasting 1783 Laki eruption: Inapplicability of mass-independent sulfur isotopic composition measurements," essentially argues that the prior studies were flawed because they only examined sulphur dioxide concentrations in the norther latitudes, while climate modelling predicted that the SO2 would have been pushed into the middle-latitudes, which, I might add, is supported by the historical record at the time.

However, whatever the cause of the temperature fluctuations, let's look at what happened in 1783-84. Netherland's NRC noted, in an article on an April 2010 eruption in Iceland:

... On June 8, 1783, the Laki volcano erupted and remained active for eight months. Its ash cloud reached as high as 15 kilometres. The poisonous dust that rained down on Iceland killed 10,000 people, a quarter of the island's population at the time.

The Icelandic language even has a word for it: Móduhardbindin, meaning "death by famine caused by poisonous gas". Domestic animals suffered white spots on their skin and burns on their hooves. The little grass that remained turned yellow and pink. Half of all livestock died from poisoning.

Iceland was not the only country where apocalyptic scenes became reality. In the United Kingdom, the summer of 1783 would go down in history as the "sand summer". Large swaths of Europe were enveloped in a thick, permanent, haze. The fog rolled over Bergen in Norway first, followed by Prague and Berlin, and finally, Paris and Rome. With visibility at sea extremely limited, ships remained moored in port. By day, a paltry sun emitted little more light than the moon did by night. Only at sunset and sunrise did it turn a deep crimson red.

Extremely hot summers and cold winters followed, causing crops to fail across Europe. Famine ensued. In the UK alone, 23,000 people died from poisoning in the summer of 1783. In the winter that followed an additional 8,000 succumbed to hunger. In 1784, the United States had its coldest winter ever. Even parts of the Gulf of Mexico froze over. The Mississippi river was covered with ice as far south as New Orleans.

The eruption's effects lasted until 1788. France was plagued by heavy storms. Newspaper reports from the era mention hailstones so big they killed cattle on impact. Harvests failed and famine followed. Grain prices reached record heights. The country's rural populace in particular, which then accounted for 85 percent of the population, rebelled against the bankrupt French monarchy. The Bastille prison was stormed and the Ancien Régime overturned. France would remain a hotbed of unrest for years, long after the Laki volcano in Iceland had already returned to a deep and long-lasting slumber.

Erik Klemetti, writing in May 2013 at the Eruptions Blog at Wired, related:

The Laki eruption wasn’t really a single event, but rather 8 months’ worth of lava flows and explosions that ejected an astounding ~14.7 km3 of basaltic lava that came out of 140 vents along a 23-km-long set of fissures and cones. ... That volume might be hard to visualize, but 14.7 km3 would pave the entire city of Boston (~232 km2) in ~63 meters deep of basalt. Think of it another way: Kilauea, one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, as erupted ~4 km3 of basalt since 1983. That means that Laki erupted 3.6 times more lava in 8 months than Kilauea as erupted in 30 years. That is pretty remarkable! This doesn’t even take into account that while the Laki eruptions were occurring, nearby Grímvötn was also erupting, possibly as many as 8 times between May 1783 and May 1785. These two events are thought to be related in a single “volcanic-tectonic episode” that fed magma into the Laki fissures and Grímvötn.

... Now, the Laki eruptions had a staggering effect on Iceland itself, in large part due to the volcanic gases released in the eruption and not the lava flows themselves. Sulfur dioxide released by the lava flows stayed close to the ground (within 5 km) in Iceland, creating acid rains that were strong enough to burn holes in leaves, kill trees and shrubs and irritate skin. The eruption released 8 Mt of fluorine, so as that fluorine settled out and was incorporated into grasses, grazing livestock got fluorinosis. Sixty percent of all grazing livestock died due to the effects of the Laki eruptions. The “Haze Famine” as it is called in Iceland killed over 10,000 people (~22% of the population) from famine and disease.

Of the 122 Mt of sulfur dioxide released in the eruption, 95 Mt made it to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, so it entered the jet stream and was circulated around the entire northern hemisphere (see right). The haze quickly reached Europe and by July 1, 1783, the haze was noticed in China. There are not many historical records from North America that mention the arrival of the Laki haze, but tree ring records from northern Alaska suggest that July and August 1783 were very cold. The mean temperature in northern Alaska is 11.3ºC, but the mean temperature recorded in May-August 1783 was only 7.2ºC. Russian traders in Alaska noted a population decrease in the years after the eruption while Inuit oral histories do refer to a “Summer that did not come” that could correlate with the Laki eruption as well.

Globally, those 95 Mt of sulfuric dioxide reacted with atmospheric water to form 200 Mt of sulfuric acid aerosols. Almost 90% of that sulfuric acid was removed in the form of acid rain or fogs, while 10% stayed aloft for over a year. This might explain why northern hemisphere temperatures were 1.3ºC below normal for 2-3 years after the eruption. Thordarson and Self (2003) created an excellent figure to show how the sulfur aerosols were dispersed during the eruption (see below), where 80% was part of the explosive phase of the eruption and launched 10-15 km, producing distant haze across the world while 20% came directly from cooling lava flows, so it stayed close to the ground to produce the local haze in Iceland. The sulfuric acid was even damaging to crops in Europe, where noxious dews and frosts (sulfur precipitates) formed. Ash from the eruption was noted as far away as Venice, Italy and many places in between.

See also this short article from Scientific American, noting that the famine after the eruption helped spark the French Revolution. This April 10, 2010, article from the Guardian also notes the devastating consequences to the people of Iceland, as well as the broader global implications:

In Norway, the Netherlands, the British Isles, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, in North America and even Egypt, the Laki eruption had its consequences, as the haze of dust and sulphur particles thrown up by the volcano was carried over much of the northern hemisphere.

Ships moored up in many ports, effectively fogbound. Crops were affected as the fall-out from the continuing eruption coincided with an abnormally hot summer. A clergyman, the Rev Sir John Cullum, wrote to the Royal Society that barley crops "became brown and withered … as did the leaves of the oats; the rye had the appearance of being mildewed".

The British naturalist Gilbert White described that summer in his classic Natural History of Selborne as "an amazing and portentous one … the peculiar haze, or smokey fog, that prevailed for many weeks in this island, and in every part of Europe, and even beyond its limits, was a most extraordinary appearance, unlike anything known within the memory of man.

"The sun, at noon, looked as blank as a clouded moon, and shed a rust-coloured ferruginous light on the ground, and floors of rooms; but was particularly lurid and blood-coloured at rising and setting. At the same time the heat was so intense that butchers' meat could hardly be eaten on the day after it was killed; and the flies swarmed so in the lanes and hedges that they rendered the horses half frantic … the country people began to look with a superstitious awe, at the red, louring aspect of the sun."

Across the Atlantic, Benjamin Franklin wrote of "a constant fog over all Europe, and a great part of North America".

The disruption to weather patterns meant the ensuing winter was unusually harsh, with consequent spring flooding claiming more lives. In America the Mississippi reportedly froze at New Orleans.

The eruption is now thought to have disrupted the Asian monsoon cycle, prompting famine in Egypt. Environmental historians have also pointed to the disruption caused to the economies of northern Europe, where food poverty was a major factor in the build-up to the French revolution of 1789.

You can find more on the fluorine poisoning in this report, "Fluorine poisoning in victims of the 1783-84
eruption of the Laki fissure, Iceland." Alexendra Witze also notes:

In the end, Laki’s effects would spread all the way around the northern hemisphere. Volcanic fluorine settled across the lush pastures of Iceland, poisoning the grass and killing livestock and leading to one of the worst famines in the country’s history. Farther afield, volcanic sulfur first choked people on the ground across Europe — and later, by scattering away the sun’s incoming rays, led to climate change across the Northern Hemisphere for years. Laki cooled parts of the planet in ways that likely shut down the flow of the Nile, and that may have contributed to famine as far away as Japan. Some have gone so far as to attribute the French Revolution of 1789, in part, to Laki’s role in crop failures across France throughout the 1780s. The eruption’s official death toll is around 10,000, but if you add in the distant famines that may be linked to Laki’s climatic effects, something closer to several million people may have died.

(She is probably referencing the Great Tenmei famine in Japan, which was at least partly the result of local eruptions). NASA simulations showed:

In contrast to the cooling over Northern Hemisphere land masses, computer simulations showed the weakening monsoon led to an area of significant warming of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over the Sahel of Africa, southern Arabian Peninsula, and India in the summer of 1783. The researchers believe the weaker-than-normal monsoon reduced the cloud cover in the region, allowing more of the sun's energy to reach the surface, raising temperatures and further worsening drought conditions. 

Computer model simulations also showed that this reduction in cloud cover was consistent with a decline in summer precipitation. "Some of the driest weather occurred over the Nile and Niger River watersheds," said Oman. "The relative lack of cloud cover and increased temperature likely amplified evaporation, further lessening water available for run-off." 

To see what effect major high-latitude volcanic eruptions have on rainfall and river levels, the researchers used records on the height of the Nile River that date back to 622 A.D. Record low Nile River water levels occurred in 1783-1784 following the Laki event. Similarly low levels were observed after the Mount Katmai, Alaska, eruption in 1912, when the Niger River was also at a record low. And in 939 A.D. there was also low Nile River flow following the Eldgjá eruption in Iceland. "Our analysis found there is less than a 3 percent chance that the Laki and Katmai low river flow events could be attributed to natural climate variability," said Oman.

In Exodus Lost, by S.C. Compton, writes that "[c]rops could not be grown in Egypt in 1783 or 1784, and by 1785 one-sixth of Egypt's population had starved or fled."  This article from Decoded Science describes:

Because the Laki eruption took place within an era and a geographic location in which written records were kept, researchers know a lot about the environmental impacts. They were extensive: it’s been described on the The Naked Scientist podcast as ‘the biggest atmospheric pollution event in history.’ Benjamin Franklin, at the time living in Paris, wrote of the ‘constant fog’ which shrouded Europe and North America. 

The fog was not the only outcome. The vast quantity of sulphur dioxide which found its way into the atmosphere created acid rain in parts of northern Europe. The eruption also seems to have interfered with climate patterns: in North America, climate records show that the years 1784-86 were abnormally cold – although in Europe the summer of 1783 was exceptionally hot and in Japan, unseasonably wet.

In Iceland, the impacts were particularly severe as concentrations of poisonous gases acted upon the local population and livestock within only few days. Vegetation also became poisoned by the gases and volcanic fallout. The result was famine: estimates suggest that the final toll was up to 75% of all the livestock in Iceland and possibly also a quarter of its population. 

The famine took hold elsewhere, with reports of crops failing in Sweden. In addition, the toxic atmospheric gases proved fatal to large numbers of people, with Dr John Grattan of the University of Aberystwyth (quoted by The Naked Scientist) stating a figure of ‘something like 20,000 extra people’ dying in the summer of 1783. Although there are no accurate figures, the death toll worldwide must have been significant. 

Moving further afield, the Drishtikone blog states:

The atmosphere also impact the weather in other areas. India’s monsoon was severely impacted contributing to the drought of 1783-84, which led to Chalisa Famine. 

The modeling showed significant warming that occurred in the region west to east across Africa to the southern Arabian Peninsula and on to India during the summer of 1783. With little or no monsoon, there were no clouds to bring rain for the rivers or shield the surface from evaporation. Little or no rain, no irrigating floods, no crops and no food — all conspired to bring about the situation Volney described, and all were traceable back to Laki. 

It has been said time and again that the entire ecosystem is linked. In case of the impact of Laki Eruption to India leading to the Chalisa Famine, the underground occurrences – which caused volcanic eruption led to weather changes that devastated many large areas and killed many. 

 That famine caused over 11 million deaths in India alone.

Ars Technica warns that "[t]here have been four 'Laki-like' eruptions in Iceland over the past 1,150 years—some bigger, some smaller—which means this is not just an academic exercise. It’s a scenario that we could very well encounter in the near future."

UPDATE (2/18/2015): The Eruptions Blog has an interview with the authors of Island on Fire (a book about the Laki eruption), Alexandra Witze and Jeff Kanipe.

This is Sort of Scary

I came across the above-photograph at the Chinese Military Review blog. It is supposed to be from a desert training exercise, showing Chinese troops using the QBZ-95 assault rifle. Looking at the other photos from the same exercise, it looks like something is clamped over the standard flash-hider, but look at that flame jetting out the end. It appears that the shooter's neighbor has started a grass fire!

Saudi Arabia to Ship Chinese AA Missiles to Syrian Rebels

Source: Chinese Military Review

The Jerusalem Post reports:

According to Western and Arab diplomatic sources who spoke to the Journal, Riyadh intends to deliver advanced, Chinese-made shoulder-fired missiles that are capable of downing airplanes as well as Russian-manufactured 9M113 Konkur anti-tank missiles.

 This is probably not the first time, since there were reports from a year ago of Syrian rebels using Chinese FN-6 shoulder-fired air defense missiles to shoot down government helicopters. (See also here).

Of course, the Syrians probably hope this new batch works better than the last. From the New York Times (Aug. 12, 2013):

The successful attacks on Syria’s helicopters by Chinese missiles brought “publicity” that “will raise the image of Chinese defense products on the international arms trade market,” the newspaper wrote.

The praise proved premature.

As the missiles were put to wider use, rebels began to complain, saying that more often than not they failed to fire or to lock on targets. One rebel commander, Abu Bashar, who coordinates fighting in Aleppo and Idlib Provinces, called the missiles, which he said had gone to Turkey from Sudan and had been provided to rebels by a Qatari intelligence officer, a disappointment.

“Most of the FN-6s that we got didn’t work,” he said. He said two of them had exploded as they were fired, killing two rebels and wounding four others.

Detailed photos of one of the FN-6 missile tubes, provided by a Syrian with access to the weapons, showed that someone had taken steps to obscure its origin. Stenciled markings, the photos showed, had been covered with spray paint. Such markings typically include a missile’s serial number, lot number, manufacturer code and year of production.

Rebels said that before they were provided with the missiles, months ago, they had already been painted, either by the seller, shipper or middlemen, in a crude effort to make tracing the missiles more difficult.

Iranian Ships a Dry Run?

From the Washington Examiner:

Iran's surprising decision to move warships off the Atlantic coast poses a potential catastrophic threat to America from a nuclear or electromagnetic pulse attack, according to an expert who foresaw Iran's move.

Peter Pry, an expert on EMP attacks, said the ships are likely a dry run for a future attack, a maneuver meant to lull Washington into complacency while also embarrassing President Obama and his effort to convince Tehran to give up production of a nuclear bomb in return for a lifting of some economic sanctions.

I suspect that the propaganda from such a journey is the primary purpose. It's not clear to me what intelligence they could gather from such a trip that could not be found from public sources.

Book Review: "Savage Continent" by Keith Lowe

Book: Savage Continent: Europe in the Aftermath of World War II by Keith Lowe (2012)--497 pp.

Overview: Lowe presents a history of Europe in the immediate aftermath of World War II--1945 to the early 1950's. In particular, he examines the social and political consequences of the mass forced relocations of people and "ethnic cleansing" undertaken by the Nazis, the collapse of the wartime governments, and the destruction of infrastructure during the immediate post-war period, together with the rise of communism in Eastern Europe and the dawn of the Cold War.

Although armed conflict between nation states largely ceased at the end of the war, the collapse of social government and the still active partisan groups led to continued conflict between different ethnic, religious, and political groups well into the 1950s in some areas. The Germans had made the idea of mass expulsion and relocation of ethnic groups conceivable, and this continued after the war--sometimes with the official sanction of the allied powers on both sides of the Iron Curtain. Reprisals for real and imagined war crimes, collaboration, old ethnic tensions, and outright greed lay behind much of the violence and expulsion.

Impression: This book reveals an often overlooked period of history. In the United States, the popular history of WWII, even taught at the university level, is that the Germans surrendered to the allied forces, reconstruction began, the Marshall Plan helped rebuild Europe, and then the Iron Curtain fell across Eastern Europe. There is some discussion of the resettlement of Jews into Palistine, but the United States quickly recovered from the war, and so U.S. history tends to refocus quickly on political and social issues in the United States, and the Cold War on the international scene.

From the author's description, the post-war history is often edited in Europe as well to emphasize what a particular nation did that was "good," and minimize what was "bad." What the author describes is that throughout Europe, even in England to large extent, it was a period of privation, and a period of revived national and ethnic bigotry. Lowe suggests that if it wasn't for the presence of the allied armies, Europe could have easily continued fighting for generations.

The core of the book, though, is that the nature of Europe was forever changed. The mix of ethnicities ceased to exist. The Jews had been practically exterminated from many countries, and the few that survived were not welcome back. The masses of slave labor deported from various countries within the Third Reich, were attempting to return to their home countries. At the same time, German hatred ran deep, and German populations in many other countries--communities that had been extant for hundreds of years--were killed, herded up, and driven out. The same occurred among other communities. For instance, Polish authorities not only expelled Jews and Germans, but also Ukrainians and other ethnic groups. But this happened all across Europe, although mostly heavily in Eastern Europe. So, the immediate aftermath of the war saw mass movements of displaced peoples attempting to move across a continent that lacked food and infrastructure, without a functioning economic base. Many of the these people were confined in internment camps--some of them death camps that the Nazis had used--for months and, in some cases, several years.

Revenge reared its head. In many countries, Nazis and Nazi collaborators were rounded up and killed. In Yugoslavia, pro-Nazi forces were systematically rounded up and executed en masse. Almost all countries used prisoners of war as slave labor to help rebuild destroyed infrastructure. Interestingly, crime--even in neutral countries that had not been part of the war--skyrocketed.

Finally, there were the conflicts between partisan and underground political groups, and the eventual split of the continent into communist and democratic. In Greece and parts of Eastern Europe, these took the means of political violence, strikes, and mass arrests and torture. The Soviets made good use of the pent up hatred. Says the author:

Rather than fighting against racial and ethnic hatred in the areas they controlled, the Soviets sought to harness it. There are many ways in which the nationalist and racist policies that swept eastern Europe after the war suited the Soviets. To begin with, displaced people were far easier to control than people who were entrenched in their homelands and traditions. The chaos created by the deportations were also the ideal atmosphere for preaching revolution. The lands and businesses left behind could be parcelled out and redistributed amongst the workers and the poor, thus furthering the Communist agenda. It also created a new loyalty amongst those who received land....

(p. 266). The author later notes:

Next, the Communists would seek to engineer splits amongst their rivals. They would try to discredit certain factions of other parties, and pressurize [sic] their leaders into disowning these factions. Or they would invite rivals to join them in a united 'front', causing rifts between those who trusted the Communists and those who did not. ... Eventually, having split them time and time again, the Communists would swallow what was left of these parties whole.

(p. 344).

This book appears to fill a largely ignored piece of history. It was interestingly written, although overwhelming at times. There were times after reading page after page of atrocities that I had to put the book down because I couldn't bear to read anymore. Although the atrocities during the post-war period cannot equal those perpetrated during the active time of the war, it is apparent that the Nazis had released a great evil--a Pandora's box--upon Europe that only with great effort and time was shut again.

Notable Points:

Survival is possible even under the harshest of conditions. For instance, the author relates:

After the war had passed on, Jews began to emerge from hiding even in the most unlikely places. Thousands had survived in the forests and swamps of Lithuania, Poland and Belarus. Thousands more had spent the war hidden in the basements and attics of sympathetic Gentiles. Even in destroyed Warsaw handfuls of Jews emerged from the ruins, like the biblical Noah stepping onto the shores of a changed world. They had weathered the flood of the Holocaust by hiding in sewers, tunnels and purpose-built bunkers--their own personal arks.

(p. 17). One thing that this brings to mind is the assistance that Jews received from some of the non-Jews. Hiding someone in an attic or basement, particularly during periods of food rationing and shortages, is very difficult. Consider that you may someday be placed into the same circumstance, and your food stores may mean the difference of two families surviving on ration stamps or food allocations meant for a single family, or starving.

As noted earlier, the social fabric of Europe was altered considerably during the post war years. Not only were communities divided along ethnic lines, but whole communities were destroyed, never to reappear. There was also the consequences of the wartime dead. The author writes, for instance:

In many other parts of Europe, entire generations of young women were doomed to spinsterhood, for the simple reason that most of the local young men were dead. In there Soviet Union, for example, there were over 13 million more women than men by the end of the war. The loss of men was felt most harshly in the countryside, where 80 per cent of the collective farm workers were women.

(p. 21). The author further notes the huge numbers of orphaned children following the war, who often formed gangs to survive, and prostituted themselves for money and food, or engaged in crime. "In 1946 there were still some 180,000 vagrant children living in Rome, Naples and Milan: they were forced to sleep in doorways and alleys, and kept themselves alive by theft, begging and prostitution." In the summer of 1945, the author states, there were 53,000 lost children in Berlin alone.Poland had over 1 million war orphans--children that had lost at least one parent. A third of all children in Germany had lost their fathers.

Food became scarce. The author relates that in Britain, for instance, "[s]ugar was one of the first things to become scarce, as well as perishable goods like milk, cream, eggs and fresh meat." (p. 32). And it was not simply a loss of calories. "Crucially, this amount [of calories] cannot be made up of carbohydrates alone if they are to avoid hunger-related illnesses like oedema--it must also contain vitamins supplied by fresh vegetables, proteins and fat." (p. 34). The author notes that food shortages gave rise to black markets in foods, as well as forcing people to trek into the countryside to locate food. In that regard, the author notes that people living in the countryside, who were able to raise food, were generally better off than those in the towns. (p. 36). Lowe writes:

Instead the people relied much more heavily on the black market--which meant city dwellers made regular trips to the countryside to barter their belongings for food. The war years saw a vast redistribution of wealth away from urban areas and into the countryside, thus reversing the trend of centuries.

(p. 65).

Crime increased across the continent. The author reports crime increasing by 200 to 400% in some areas, even neutral countries. Theft, especially, became common place. The author explains:

Why the neutral countries should have suffered a rise in crime during the war has long puzzled social scientists. The only credible explanation seems to lie in the deep sense of anxiety created throughout Europe at the onset of war: social instability appears to have spread across the entire continent like an infection.

(p. 43).

If you were one of those "chosen" after the war for retribution or forced removal by your neighbors, firearms were critical to your defense. For instance, the author relates the following story of a Jew who had returned to his native village in Hungary, only to face severe persecution. Anti-Semitic tensions were high in the region, and on one particular day, an Hungarian woman accused a Jewish merchant of stealing her children. It was common belief that Jews stole children and turned them into sausages and sold them to the public. His egg stand was destroyed and he fled to his home for safety.

Kuti's house quickly became surrounded by a mob. For a while the crowd refrained from entering because they were afraid he might have a gun. But when the police went in and discovered that he was unarmed--and made the mistake of announcing this to the crowd--the rabble surged inside. Kuti apparently begged the intruders for mercy but was killed by a man named Balazs Kalman, who beat him to death with an iron bar, shouting 'I'll give you sausages made out of the flesh of Hungarian children!'

(p.  197). This attack unleashed a pogrom against all the Jews in the area. And this is only one example of pogroms against not only Jews, but other ethnic and religious groups following the war. As has been pointed out on these pages and by other survival/prepper writers, your friends and neighbors may, under the right circumstances, turn against you and kill you or drive you out of your home.

Fixing Your Back--the McKenzie Method

If you suffer from a bad back, like I do, you probably are looking for ways to get rid of the pain. I haven't been able to try this out, but it looks like it is worth a look--from Backwoods Home Magazine, "How to fix your aching back using the McKenzie Method." The article has photographs and a basic description of the exercises.

Using Storage Lockers

(Source)

American Preppers Network has an article about a family in Chicago, living in an apartment, that have incorporated the use of a storage unit to increase the amount of food they can store. A couple of important points from the article:

We scanned storage listings in the Chicago area, looking for units that would fit our requirements: climate-controlled, 24-hour access, accessible even if other businesses in the area might be closed (say, during a blizzard). We wanted our own key to the unit as well as the overall storage facility; we didn’t want to have to rely on a guard to let us in.

Once we found what we wanted, it was time to start prepping. Our goal was to have three weeks of food and water stored in our home, and three months of food and water stored in the storage unit. We may be the only apartment on our block with jugs of water lined up underneath the master bed, but we managed to squeeze in enough food to keep our family of four well-provided for three weeks. Putting the rest of our food supply in the storage unit was no problem; we were able to stack it all up with room to spare.

Our family is taking prepping seriously, and that includes the idea that we need to regularly use and restock our food supply. My husband and I have both read Prepper’s Food Storage and taken the instructions to heart. We visit our storage unit each month and bring some food back home to eat, and then restock the unit with fresh supplies. Same goes with our apartment’s three-week supply of food; we eat some of it every week, restock with fresh cans and packages of food, and practice FIFO: first in, first out. That way, we know we always have recently-purchased food in our supply.

Good points for the urban or suburban prepper who is short on storage space.

Is it the ideal solution? No. But it is a workable solution, and I commend the author for taking the initiative to come up with a plan rather than deciding "oh well, we can't do it so why try.". The only thing I would add is that when using a storage locker or storage unit, OPSEC must be a priority--try to move things in and out when few people will be around, and, if possible, put smaller food containers in boxes that conceal the true nature of the contents while moving them in and out of storage (you can take the food containers out of the boxes once in the unit). Another thing I would look for is whether it is possible to access the unit if the power is out. I know that many of the storage yards in my area use electric gates, so it could be an issue.

Other Transformer Attacks and Vandalism

Some reports of other attacks:

(1) A July 17, 2013, incident in Alabama, where 250 transformers were drained of their mineral oil. One suspect was arrested.

(2) An August 26, 2013, incident involving shots at a transformer in Florida, that sparked a fire.

(3)  A September 7, 2012, incident in Oklahoma. In that one, there were two shots to a transformer and two shots to a circuit breaker. It caused a power outage for 2,000 people.

(4)  This January 16, 2012, article describes some shots that had damages transformers at different substations.

(5) This October 1990 article describes two break-ins to the same substation near Philadelphia that resulted in power outages.

I'm sure there are many more instances, but I haven't the time to locate them.

Meanwhile, here are a few articles you may find interesting. This Legalectric blog has a map of the California substation with a timeline of what happened.

This article discusses some of the security precautions that power companies have implemented:

In addition to combining its cybersecurity and physical security functions into a single office run by Glitch, the company moved up the timetable for installing updated security equipment at facilities operated by its three electric utilities — RG&E, NYSEG and Central Maine Power Co.

Iberdrola USA now has two security operations centers that monitor 120 locations using 650 employee ID-card readers, 1,000 cameras, and 5,000 alarm points, according to a corporate video shared with the Democrat and Chronicle. The company declined to make the video available publicly for security reasons.

Some cameras capture infrared radiation, or heat, allowing them to see people or objects in the absence of visible light. The imaging equipment also can be set to alert operators if equipment such as a substation transformer begins to overheat, according to the video.

Video camera imagery also is run through analytic software that detects unusual movements — a person walking along a substation fence, say, or a car stopped at the back wall of a building — then zooms in, tracks the movement and sends an alert to the security center. Glitch called Iberdrola's "an innovative, multilayered system," and Hucko said it's already proved its worth.

"Since we've installed these advanced systems, we've detected and prevented more than 300 incidents in New York alone," he said. "Our systems look out beyond the fence, and will detect intruders before they get to the property. ..."

 The article makes clear that these other "incidents" were straight up incidents of vandalism or attempted copper theft.

And, for those interested, a design guide for rural substations (pdf) and a Congressional Research Service report into vulnerabilities of our electrical utility infrastructure (pdf). I haven't had time to look through them, but I assume that they make dry reading.

Venezuela Calls Out the Troops

(Source)

All is not well in the "everything is awesome" socialist land of Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro has called out troops to quell the protests that have been spreading across the nation this past week. Showing all the originality of a socialist leader, he blames the protests on "fascists" trying to undermine the government (which, of course, mirrors the socialist poster-boy, Hitler, with his reaction to communist protests in pre-WWII Germany). From the story:

Venezuelan troops fanned out across the capital, Caracas, and other major cities on Thursday after President Nicolás Maduro ordered a military clampdown against deadly unrest that he warned was part of a "fascist" coup plot. 

Piles of burning rubbish sat smoking along Caracas' main avenue as troops moved to secure the city following an outbreak of street violence that left three dead on Wednesday. Armed soldiers surrounded government buildings and diverted traffic, while riot troops guarded entrances to the shuttered subway system as residents picked their way through broken glass. 

Mr Maduro ordered the arrest of a top opposition leader and a former military chief as he claimed "fascist" forces financed from the United States were plotting against his government. He claimed the civil unrest was part of a plan by "far right" opponents "to bring us to a dog fight, set our people at war, one against another". 

"There will be no coup d'etat in Venezuela, you can rest assured," he vowed, warning that anyone who perpetrated acts of violence or protested without permission would be arrested. 

... Under the slogan "The Exit", meaning the departure of Mr Maduro from power, hardline opposition groups have for the last fortnight been staging protests over the country's searing crime, corruption, rampant inflation and shortages of basic goods. 

But Leopoldo López, the opposition leader now in hiding from an arrest warrant on charges of homicide and conspiracy, said the government had instigated the bloodshed in order to discredit his peaceful movement. 

The opposition blames armed pro-government militant groups known as "colectivos" for attacking their marches. Several times during Wednesday's rally the cry went up: "The colectivos are coming!", sending some demonstrators running for safety. One of those killed was a well-known colectivo leader from "January 23", an impoverished hillside barrio in Caracas that is a key revolutionary stronghold.

Notice the typical socialist reaction. First, ignore the real reasons for the protests (the bad economy, corruption, etc.), and blame the protests on political opponents. Two, narrow the political spectrum to just a narrow band on the left (e.g., socialism and communism) which both represent a collectivist tyranny, and ignore that there might be political beliefs based on individual liberty and rights rather than collectivism.