Ammoman is offering "ammo by the pound" for Black Friday

Link here. This is ammo, that for one reason or another, had damaged packaging that was simply dumped into bins over the course of time. It has been sorted by caliber and that is about it.

(H/t The Weapon Blog)

"Winter in Chernobyl"

The Daily Mail has a new photo-essay of the ruins of Chernobyl, this time with a winter theme. Unfortunately, some of the photos now seem staged in that it appears that books, dolls, and other items have been moved or posed for the photos.

Iran Disputes White House Summary of Agreement

So, let me get this straight. Obama traded away sanctions and the Iranians promised nothing--not even the measly restriction on not producing highly-enriched uranium?

Lessons from the Westfield Garden State Plaza mall shooting...

... in Paramus, NJ. The Truth About Guns has some observations from one of the law enforcement officers which responded to the incident. Fortunately, the shooter was not interested in killing anyone but himself--he apparently was attempting to prompt a suicide by cop situation. However, it took so long for police to search and clear the structure that the man had given up and committed suicide before he was located. One interesting tidbit to me was the fact of sensory overload on the responding officers:

Once inside, he says he and the others were “bombarded with a stimulus overload.”


“Everything in a mall is designed to grab your attention,” he explains. “Mannequins are everywhere. You catch them in your peripheral vision or straight ahead when you’re scanning, and in your heightened state of alertness, they look like real people just standing there motionless.


“You’re trying to take in and evaluate information quickly, and the mannequins start playing with your mind. It was very frustrating the inordinate amount of time I had to spend looking at something to define it.”


The profusion of mirrors added to the distraction and confusion. Moving through one store, he says, “I was startled by my own reflection and almost shot it.” Also “wreaking havoc on perceptions” at times was glare reflecting off of large glass surfaces from strong commercial lighting and through skylights from helicopters sweeping the mall’s roof.

Something to think about.

China's Population Decline

Read the following in a a review of Josef Joffe's new book, The Myth of America’s Decline: Politics, Economics, and a Half Century of False Prophesies:

“China’s working-age population will reach its peak at the end of this decade and decades before the People’s Republic is supposed to overtake the United States.” Meanwhile, thanks to our fertility rates and immigration, the U.S. will have a population of younger workers. It has not escaped the attention of observers that, by 2025, China would account for less than a fifth of the world’s population, but almost a fourth of the world’s senior citizens.”

Chinese Aggressions

Paul Rahe warns at Ricochet:

There is trouble on the horizon, and before long it may turn into very big trouble.

In late August, I wrote at length about China's resolute turn back to despotism; about its vehement public repudiation of constitutionalism, the rule of law, and freedom of the press; and about the manner in which Chinese communist cadres are now expected to read Alexis de Tocqueville's classic The Ancien Regime and the Revolution as a warning against a relaxation of party discipline.

There is another dimension to what is going on in China, and it dovetails neatly with the first. In and for a long time after the time of Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese talked softly while carrying a big stick. Deng and his immediate successors understood that the rise of China would elicit anxiety on the part of the Japanese, the Koreans, the Vietnamese, the Taiwanese, and the Filipinos, and they did what they could to allay that anxiety by refraining from doing anything that would suggest on their part aggressive intent.

In the last couple of years, however, all of that has changed; and everywhere where one goes in Asia, an old friend who travels in high circles told me earlier this week, one senses hostility -- not towards the United States but towards one's neighbors. The anger underlying all of this has been stirred by the Chinese, who have been throwing their weight around with ever greater force.

This weekend the Chinese upped the ante. In the South China Sea, between Korea and Taiwan, there are some uninhabited islands, which are called the Senkaku isles by the Japanese and the Diayu isles by the Chinese. Although there are other claimants, these have been controlled for many decades by the Japanese. This weekend, however, China extended its air-defence zone to include the islands ....

... This is a deliberate provocation, and it is clearly meant as a challenge to Japan. In that neck of the woods, the Chinese evidently intend to have their way, and those who do not acquiesce will be made to pay dearly. What we are witnessing is an attempt by the Chinese to assert and establish their hegemony over the entire region. What they aim at is something like what, in the years prior to World War II, the Japanese called the Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.

The author goes on to discuss that this aggression by China is based on the belief by Chinese leaders that the United States is well and truly in decline--unable or unwilling to do anything to hinder China's pursuit of regional hegemony--and that it is China's time to assert (or reassert, taking the long historical view) power over the region.

I don't believe that the Chinese leadership necessarily has to believe that the United States is too weak. Rather, the Chinese leadership may be pursuing a strategy that it can assert its dominance and expand its power via a series of pinpricks calculated to, individually, never be enough to threaten the United States enough to cause the United States to directly engage in hostilities. This is a risky strategy unless China is confident that it can quickly neutralize any direct threat from the United States (i.e., disable the Navy and/or American satellites).

It may be true that China is misinterpreting American resolve and capabilities. It is this type of misunderstanding of what America might or might not do which led to the first Persian Gulf War (when Saddam Hussein) underestimated American resolve to resist Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. A similar misunderstanding underlay Japan's attacks on the United States and its interests in 1941, and the invasion of Poland by Germany and Russia which kicked off World War II. But I would be concerned of the possibility that China believes that it can quickly neutralize any American threat.

Homeless Not Welcome

Michael Snyder at the Economic Collapse Blog writes about how many cities are waging a war against the homeless by enacting bans on feeding the homeless, bans on "camping," or by simply giving homeless people one way bus tickets to other cities (the out-of-sight-out-of-mind solution). This is not as bad as homeless are treated in other countries, but it shows a general lack of regard for the homeless--to cover up the homelessness problem--that wasn't present before.

I believe that there are a couple reasons for this disregard. First, we have a so-called "Progressive" in the White House that the rich and famous refuse to criticize. I'm old enough to remember the recession in the early 80's, and the intense media coverage, the songs from pop stars, movies, and the relentless criticism of the Republican Administration over a homelessness problem that is in no way as serious as now. But all we hear from the liberals now are crickets.

Second, the only organizations with a proven track record for helping the homeless are churches, but various governments and laws have hamstrung religious missions devoted to helping the homeless. Liberals would literally rather see homeless people freeze or starve than to allow religious groups help the homeless. I'm not speculating--I've seen that myself from die-hard liberals. They hate Christianity more than they care about the homeless.

"The Truth About Mental Illness and Guns"

From Reason:

Even the nation's premier gun lobby believes keeping guns away from the mentally ill is a good idea. It's a sensible-sounding proposal, a logical precaution. But some forensic psychiatrists, whose jobs include the task of identifying potentially violent individuals, say that targeting the mentally ill isn't as simple as it sounds.


A recent Mayo Clinic study points out that mass shooters tend to meticulously plan their crimes weeks or months in advance, undermining the idea that the mentally ill simply "snap" and go on shooting rampages while also complicating the notion of effective gun control through gun registries, since a methodical planner has plenty of time to obtain weapons through illegal channels.


A more basic problem with a strategy that targets mentally ill people is that the vast majority of them are not violent. When you control for substance abuse, a factor that exacerbates violence in all populations, only about 4.3% of people with a "severe" mental illness are likely to commit any sort of violence, according to a University of Chicago study. The violence rate among those with a "non-severe" mental illness is about equal to that of the "normal" population.


"In the absence of a history of violence or any of the other risk factors, it is impossible to predict who will become violent," says Stephen K. Hoge, a forensic psychiatrist at Columbia University.

Abandoned University (More Urban Ruins)

The Daily Mail has another article/photo essay of the abandoned science campus at Val Benoit University in Belgium:

Militarization of the Police (Updated and bumped)

There have been a lot of police departments, large and small, all across the nation loading up on military equipment, including MRAPs. A friend pointed me to this op-ed in the Idaho Statesman where the Boise City Chief of Police, Mike Masterson, responds to criticism of his department obtaining an MRAP. What is concerning is his anti-Second Amendment views and unrealistic expectations of what police face. After spending a couple paragraphs on the importance of protecting civil liberties, he writes:

Unfortunately, we live in an increasingly violent society. Boise hasn’t made national news for murder and mayhem, but we’ve had our stories, too. Just because we’ve avoided major headlines doesn’t mean we don’t see issues on the horizon that could affect our safety. Why is it that our laws don’t keep deadly weapons (guns and cars) out of the hands of the mentally ill or those who intend to harm our government and its most visible forms of authority? Why is it that guns made exclusively for the military are available in society for general use? When society addresses these issues and others equally important to public safety, there won’t be a need for police departments to acquire surplus armored vehicles.

Almost everything he says is incorrect. We do not live in an increasingly violent society--unless he is suggesting that the FBI has been lying to us, violent crime rates have fallen sharply over the past 20 years nationwide.

We have laws keeping the insane from obtaining firearms. Because "mentally ill" is such a broad and loose term, it is a dangerous road to go down to prevent anyone with a "mental illness" from possessing firearms. How many police officers suffer from depression or anxiety?

"Why is it that guns made exclusively for military are available in society for general use?" Besides being self-contradictory, I would like to know what he believes are military weapons being made available for public use. I think I know the answer to that, which are weapons based on the AR or AK platforms. However, the military versions of those weapons are banned from general use. All he is saying here is that Idahoans need more gun control.

What other issues of equal importance to public safety does he think justify having an MRAP? How can we have a discussion concerning these issues if he won't even reveal his concerns?

In the end, here is what we have: the department obtained a vehicle designed for military use and intended to protect soldiers from land mines and small anti-tank weapons such as the RPG. I challenge the Boise Police Chief to point to a single case of police officers in Idaho being attacked with land mines and RPGs. If he can, then perhaps there is an argument justifying such a vehicle. If not, then he is hiding his officer's desire to "play soldier" behind empty rhetoric.

Update (11/22/2013): From the Belgrade News, an op-ed by John Whitehead:

Why are police departments across the country acquiring heavy-duty military equipment and weaponry? For the same reason that perfectly good roads get repaved, perfectly good equipment gets retired and replaced, and perfectly good employees spend their days twiddling their thumbs—and all of it at taxpayer expense. It’s called make-work programs, except in this case, instead of unnecessary busy work to keep people employed, communities across America are finding themselves “gifted” with drones, tanks, grenade launchers and other military equipment better suited to the battlefield. And as I document in my book, A Government of Wolves: The Emerging American Police State, it’s all being done through federal programs that allow the military to “gift” battlefield-appropriate weapons, vehicles and equipment to domestic police departments across the country.


It’s a Trojan Horse, of course, one that is sold to communities as a benefit, all the while the real purpose is to keep the defense industry churning out profits, bring police departments in line with the military, and establish a standing army. As journalists Andrew Becker and G. W. Schulz report in their insightful piece, “Local Cops Ready for War With Homeland Security-Funded Military Weapons,” federal grants provided by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have “transformed local police departments into small, army-like forces, and put intimidating equipment into the hands of civilian officers. And that is raising questions about whether the strategy has gone too far, creating a culture and capability that jeopardizes public safety and civil rights while creating an expensive false sense of security.” ....

Whitehead notes that the practice is not only an incredible waste of money, but dangerous as well:

[T]his equipping of police with military-grade equipment and weapons also gives rise to a dangerous mindset in which police feel compelled to put their newly high-power toys and weapons to use. The results are deadly, as can be seen in the growing numbers of unarmed civilians shot by police during relatively routine encounters and in the use of SWAT teams to carry out relatively routine tasks. For example, a team of police in Austin, Texas broke into a home in order to search for a stolen koi fish. In Florida, over 50 barbershops were raided by police donning masks and guns in order to enforce barber licensing laws. 

Thus, while recycling unused military equipment might sound thrifty and practical, the ramifications are proving to be far more dangerous and deadly. This is what happens when you have police not only acquiring the gear of American soldiers, but also the mindset of an army occupying hostile territory. In this way, the American citizen is no longer seen as an employer or master to be served by public servants like police officers. With police playing the part of soldiers on the battlefield and the American citizen left to play the part of an enemy combatant, it’s a pretty safe bet that this particular exercise in the absurd will not have a happy ending.

The Max Velocity Blog ...

... has moved. It's new address is here.

Venezuela--Down the Road to Serfdom

Reminds me of Nazi Germany. From Yahoo News:

Venezuelan lawmakers granted President Nicolas Maduro yearlong decree powers on Tuesday that he says are essential to regulate the economy and stamp out corruption but adversaries view as a power grab. 

Hundreds of supporters of the ruling Socialist Party cheered outside the National Assembly as the so-called Enabling Law was passed, while a recording of Maduro's late predecessor, Hugo Chavez, singing Venezuela's anthem rang out inside the hall. 

The power to pass laws without congressional approval gives Maduro a political victory in the run-up to December 8 municipal elections, although he still faces a severely distorted economy with embarrassing product shortages and inflation surging to nearly 55 percent.
"I want to thank the majority of patriotic and socialist lawmakers for approving this law that will let us advance, over the next 12 months, in defeating the economic war being waged against our people," Maduro said. 

"Tonight has been a victory for the people! ... Who says the revolution is over?" he added, flanked by ministers, to applause from a crowd outside the Miraflores presidential palace.

 His first two planned laws have to do with limiting the amount of profit businesses can earn, and his second will further create a board to oversee currency exchanges and sales.

And there is this justification: "'He told us to pass all the laws necessary to wring the necks of the speculators and money launderers,' Cabello said."

Blogging "65 Signs of the Times Leading Up to the Second Coming" - Part 7 (Updated)

This is part 7 of my review of David Ridges, 65 Signs of the Times Leading Up to the Second Coming. Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here. Part 4 is here. Part 5 is here. Part 6 is here.

In earlier installments, I had made it through Ridges introductory comments and discussion, and the first 40 signs. This time, I will summarize the 41st through 50th signs:

(41)  People refuse to believe the signs of the times. 2 Peter 3:3-4.

(42) Some will fear that Christ's coming is being delayed too long. D&C 45:26. 

(43) There will be signs and wonders on the Earth and in the heavens. D&C 45-36-40; Acts 2:19. I would note that some of the signs in the heavens have probably already been seen. For instance, on August 28 and September 2, 1859, Earth was subject to two powerful solar storms, known as the Carrington Event. Besides burning out telegraphs, it also produced incredible auroras:

When telegraphs did come back on line, many were filled with vivid accounts of the celestial light show that had been witnessed the night before. Newspapers from France to Australia featured glowing descriptions of brilliant auroras that had turned night into day. One eyewitness account from a woman on Sullivan’s Island in South Carolina ran in the Charleston Mercury: “The eastern sky appeared of a blood red color. It seemed brightest exactly in the east, as though the full moon, or rather the sun, were about to rise. It extended almost to the zenith. The whole island was illuminated. The sea reflected the phenomenon, and no one could look at it without thinking of the passage in the Bible which says, ‘the sea was turned to blood.’ The shells on the beach, reflecting light, resembled coals of fire.”

The sky was so crimson that many who saw it believed that neighboring locales were on fire. Americans in the South were particularly startled by the northern lights, which migrated so close to the equator that they were seen in Cuba and Jamaica. Elsewhere, however, there appeared to be genuine confusion. In Abbeville, South Carolina, masons awoke and began to lay bricks at their job site until they realized the hour and returned to bed. In Bealeton, Virginia, larks were stirred from their sleep at 1 a.m. and began to warble. (Unfortunately for them, a conductor on the Orange & Alexandria Railroad was also awake and shot three of them dead.) In cities across America, people stood in the streets and gazed up at the heavenly pyrotechnics. In Boston, some even caught up on their reading, taking advantage of the celestial fire to peruse the local newspapers.

(Source)

November 12-13, 1833, saw the greatest meteor shower in history:

On the night of the 12th, many sky watchers noticed that there seemed to be an unusually high number of meteors in the sky heading into the morning of the 13th. Suddenly, as if someone turned on a switch, the sky filled with meteors to the tune of, according to some estimates, over 200,000 per hour! That translates to over 3,000 per minute or, even more mind boggling, 50 meteors per second. All across North America, people were woken by their bedrooms suddenly becoming filled with light thanks to the light of all the meteors. Now, the kicker: this lasted for 4 hours until the Sun started to rise.

Other estimates are more realistic-- 14,000 per hour. The Leonids produced another spectacular shower in 1866, with 5,000 per hour visible in Europe, and 1,000 per hour visible in North America.

(44)  The Lamanites will blossom as the rose. D&C 49:24. Mexico is projected to have the 5th largest economy in the world by 2050.

(45)  The New Jerusalem will be built. See D&C 45:66-69. This will be in Jackson County, Missouri, near Independence.

(46)  Many temples will be built. 

(47) A temple will be built in Jerusalem. 

(48) The gospel will flourish in Egypt and temple will be built there. Isaiah 19:18-22.

(49) The rainbow is withdrawn. Ridges recites a prophecy given by Joseph Smith that "whenever you see the [rain] bow withdrawn, it shall be a token that there shall be famine, pestilence, and great distress among the nations, and that the coming of the Messiah is not far distant." (History of the Church, 6:254). Although Ridges does not speculate as to the cause of this, I wonder if it is related to the prophecy of the sun being dimmed.

(50) The Constitution will hang by a thread. Ridges notes that the Lord established the Constitution by the hands of the Founding Fathers (D&C 101:77-80). He notes several of the prophets that have spoken of the time when the Constitution will almost be destroyed, including Ezra Taft Benson, who warned: "Unfortunately, we as a nation have apostatized in various degrees from different Constitutional principles as proclaimed by the inspired founders. We are fast approaching that moment prophesied by Joseph Smith when he said: 'Even this nation will be on the very verge of crumbling to pieces and tumbling to the ground, and when the Constitution is upon the brink of ruin, this people will be the staff upon which the nation shall lean, and they shall bear the Constitution away from the very verge of destruction.'"

Update (11/21/2013): One thing I wanted to mention about the building of temple in Jerusalem. Currently Israel does not allow proselytizing, and there is currently an agreement that the Church will not baptize an Israeli citizens. So why will this change so dramatically before the Second Coming. As I read various commentators, the more recent consensus is that Christ will appear to people prior to The Second Coming. The Second Coming is the end of the wicked, when Christ returns in his full power and majesty. However, we know that he has appeared since his resurrection and ascension without it being his Second Coming. This may very well be the case with his appearance to the Jews when the Mount of Olives splits to provide an escape for the Jews. That is, this event may occur some time prior to the Second Coming, leading to the conversion of Jews and building of a temple. This is speculation, and may be completely wrong, but may be worthy of some consideration. I'm open to comments (even opposing views on this), so let me know what you think--am I barking up the wrong tree?

Merrill Lynch is Bullish

Not everyone is doom and gloom. Merrill Lynch believes that the U.S. economy is poised for strong growth.

Syrian Kurds Declare Autonomous Region

Asia News (h/t Gates of Vienna) reports:

Syria's tragic situation is getting even more complicated. The country's Kurds have announced the "formation of a transitional civil administration for the area of Western Kurdistan-Syria."


Yesterday's announcement by the Kurdish Democratic Union (PYD) was made in Qamishli, north-eastern Syria, and comes after Kurdish forces successfully seized border posts with Iraq, hitherto occupied by jihadist groups.


In July, Kurdish leaders had already announced plans to create a provisional government in the region after Syrian government forces decided to pull out a year ago to prevent Kurds from joining the rebels.


Syrian Kurds represent 10-15 per cent of the country's population, and are concentrated in the country's north-eastern Syria, next to Turkish and Iraqi Kurdistan.


Language, culture and a desire for a state of their own connects people in all three areas (four if we consider Iran's Kurdish region).

Assad was forced to give the Kurds autonomy out of political and military necessity--to keep them from joining the Syrian rebels. The temptation for the Syrian Kurds will be to join with the Iraqi Kurds. Assuming that Assad does not win and immediately turn on the Kurds, an economic union, of sorts, is inevitable between the regions in Syria in Iraq. Where it will become tricky is if either side seeks a political union. Turkey would see such a union as a threat to Turkey's control over its Kurdish regions, and I doubt Iraq would be open to allowing some of its richest oil fields to pass to another state.

I expect the Kurdish issue to begin assuming a greater importance moving forward because some sort of independent Kurdish state seems almost inevitable, yet carries a potential for civil war in multiple countries.

Saudi Arabia and Israel Planning Action Against Iran?

Obama will soon come to regret not accepting all those calls from Netanyahu. The Sunday Times of London reports:

... Now Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency is working with Saudi officials on contingency plans for a possible attack on Iran if its nuclear programme is not significantly curbed in a deal that could be signed in Geneva this week.


Both the Israeli and Saudi governments are convinced that the international talks to place limits on Tehran’s military nuclear development amount to appeasement and will do little to slow its development of a nuclear warhead.


As part of the growing co-operation, Riyadh is understood already to have given the go-ahead for Israeli planes to use its airspace in the event of an attack on Iran.


Both sides are now prepared to go much further.

 Israel Today reports:

The arrangement reportedly being hashed out would allow Israel to use Saudi airspace en route to Iran. The Saudis would also provide logistical support by coordinating the use of drones, search and rescue aircraft and refueling tankers over their soil.


And it all of this sounds too fantastical, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu already hinted at such a deal last week in an interview with with French daily Le Figaro.


There is a "meeting of the minds" between Israel and the "leading states in the Arab world on the Iran issue," Netanyahu told the newspaper, noting that it is "one of the few cases in memory, if not the first case in modern times" of Israel working side-by-side with these particular states.


The Israeli leader reiterated that the Iran nuclear threat is far more severe than Western leaders are willing to admit.

 Of course, Saudi Arabia denies the report, which they would have to do to avoid angering their populace or other Muslim countries.

More Thoughts on Dick Metcalf's Anti-2nd Amendment Op-Ed

As I've discussed before, Dick Metcalf (the former technical editor of Guns & Ammo) was fired earlier this month for an op-ed that was published in the December edition (the magazines are actually mailed out a month or so before the cover date). Since I get my copies second-hand, after my father-in-law reads them, I only just looked through Metcalf's editorial that got him fired--I've read excerpts on-line, but this was my first opportunity to read the whole thing.

It was actually worse than what I had expected. I won't rehash his misinterpretation and misapplication of the phrase "well-regulated" since it has been discussed at length by other writers. What I find appalling, and what I haven't seen discussed elsewhere, was the elitist attitude Metcalf expressed in the concept that a person "needed" training to use a firearm safely, and should be "required" to undertake training. Metcalf suggested that it would not be unreasonable to require 16 hours (i.e., two full days) of training to get a firearm permit!

Metcalf, like many other professionals, assumes the training by certified experts is required in order to safely and effectively use a firearm. There are many problems with this issue, but here are some major ones:

(1)  Certification. Who is to decide whether someone is qualified to teach firearms training, what minimum level of skills and ability, etc., are required to obtain certification? Ultimately, the government will make that decision. Who will keep track of who has passed such certification? The government. So, any certification program becomes a de facto method of gun control and registration.

(2) Necessity for training. Let's be honest here--it does not take significant training or practice to be proficient with a firearm. In the book Marine Sniper, a biography of Carlos Hathcock, one of the stories is how with just 5 or 10 minutes instruction, the snipers were able to train a single soldier to shoot accurately enough to strike a target more than an entire company could with just the standard Army training. My own experience is that it only takes a few minutes instruction to teach an adult the basics of how to use a firearm. I would note that firearms have been used for hundreds of years without any formal training requirements or licensure. They are relatively simple mechanisms to use. (Compare this with automobiles, which have been licensed almost since their inception, and require significant training and practice both to operate the vehicle and to learn the basic laws surrounding their use). Just like any sport, to truly excel requires training and practice. But the basics are so simple, a child can learn them.

(3) Training by experts. Tied to point no. 2 is that professional training is superior to informal training and practice. If this were the case, we would not see the constant stream of mistakes and mishaps from members of our military and police. Whether justified or not, the general impression I have from the gun blogs and forums, as well as my own observations, is that police are actually some of the least safe when it comes to handling a firearm. Certainly, I've never seen any evidence, anecdotal or from studies, showing that training by "experts" was better than informal training. While such training may be useful, or even desirable, does not make it necessary.

(4) Costs. Any requirement for formal training and certification will, of course, cost money which will come from the pocket of those seeking the training. There is an obvious conflict of interest with the firearms training industry, who push for such training and would benefit financially from it. But a deeper issue is that, all other considerations aside, this type of training requirement would act as a de facto restriction on people with lower incomes obtaining and using firearms for self-defense.

Venezuela Almost At Hyperinflation Stage

Steve H. Hanke writes at the Cato Institute:

Currently, official government data put Venezuela’s inflation rate at a mere 50% ...


... The implied annual inflation rate in Venezuela is actually now in the triple digits, coming in at a whopping 283% ....


What’s more, the implied monthly inflation rate has now ramped up to 36%, .... That’s dangerously close to the hyperinflation threshold of 50% per month. This is due to an accelerating depreciation of the bolivar, reflecting Venezuelan’s deteriorating economic outlook.

Problems with Using a Retreat--Social Issues (Updated)

I think its important to understand the original impetus for relocating to a retreat, or simply moving to a rural area in the first place--nuclear war. Then, after the riots of the 1960's and 70's, there arose the idea that due to social or economic upheaval, cities and suburbs would collapse into bitter war zones dominated by gangs and mobs, a la, Mad Max. While there are a few instances where rural peoples have prospered over those in cities in time of social upheaval or war, it is foolishness to believe that the gangs, looters, mobs, armies, etc., will simply walk around the small burghs and farmstead to attack the cities. To the contrary, there is a reason why people have historically fled to cities for protection.

However, my point today is not to rehash the physical or financial problems with bugging out. I've previously stated that, unless forced by flood, fire, etc., to leave, you should plan on bugging in. Numerous posts and articles discuss how, in disasters, roads will be clogged. Attempting to bug out on foot is more likely than not going to end in disaster--if you can't already live off the land like that, a disaster is not suddenly going to teach you the skills, and magically improve your conditioning and constitution to the necessary level.

My point is the social issues. Let's assume, for sake of argument, you actually make it to your retreat in or near some tiny town in the hills/forests/mountains of where-ever, and no one has appropriated your retreat and supplies. (When I was younger, there popped up on the national news for a time stories of people in L.A. who had weekend homes in the Mojave who would go out and find mobs of people having broken into their houses, just partying it up and eating their food, and stealing anything of value). Anyway, unless you are very isolated, and very self-sufficient, you will still have to deal with the locals.

I could tell you about how closed small towns are to outsiders, but I will let James Wesley Rawles explain it himself. This is from a recent posting on Survival Blog, and Rawles was responding to someone complaining about all the Mormons in Utah, and perceived favoritism. Rawles responded:

As for Mormon politics and clannishness in Utah, I don't consider that a major issue or impediment for anyone who is considering relocation to Utah or to southern Idaho. I've observed that there are are lots of non-Mormon small towns throughout the United States where newcomers get the cold shoulder socially, and where there is a de facto hiring preference for locals. That is just basic social dynamics and the We/They Paradigm in action. To illustrate: I've been a landowner living year-round in The Unnamed Western State for eight years, and faithfully attending the same local church for all of that time. But I'm still considered a relative newcomer. Many of my neighbors have lived here for three or four generations. So I can't expect to be "instantly integrated." That is just the way it is.

James Dakin gives somewhat of the opposite perspective--the oldtimer looking at the prepper coming from somewhere else:

Preppers are, obviously, preparing. Survivalists do the same. The main difference is that Preppers are preparing for the end of the Oil Age whereas Survivalists are preparing for the end of western civilization. Preppers are preparing for their luxuries to be disrupted and stockpile to make that happen as late as possible. ...  Survivalists are Mad Max. Preppers are middle class concrete fallout shelter dwellers. Survivalists are Rednecks whereas Preppers are Yuppies. ...

*

...  Meanwhile, Pete Prepper is tearing out the last three hairs he has trying to juggle a mortgage and a retreat land payment while still paying the minimum on the trophy wives credit card bills and liposuction surgeries. ...

 I'm not interested in delving into the semantics of "survivalist" versus "prepper." What I'm more interested in Dakin's general attitude toward the outsider setting up his retreat in Dakin's small northern Nevada town. The fact is, it is a somewhat typical resentment or dislike of the "outsider." I'm not putting Dakin down because, as Rawles acknowledges, it is part of human nature.

The point is that even with the money he has spent in the local economy and the attempt to put down roots, Rawles acknowledges that he is still somewhat of an outsider after living in the area for years. So, how much better can another prepper (or survivalist) do, especially if he only occasionally visits or uses his retreat property.

Update (11/21/2013): As noted in the comments below, Matthew Bracken has discussed this issue, and observes:

To begin: you do not want to live as a trapped and cut-off minority in what might become “enemy territory.” If you live amidst your civil war enemies, as defined and located within the CW2 Cube, you will be in mortal danger even if your immediate neighbors know, love and respect you. Those persons who have a stake in fanning the flames of CW2 (and their number shall be legion), will intentionally target those remaining “holdouts” who may be respected minority neighbors. (In this essay, minority means “the minority within a given group or area.” Blacks are the majority in some areas, and whites are the minorities in others, and so on.)

"Disaster on a colossal scale"

The war in the Central African Republic:

Imagine a country with a population of 4.6 million, of whom nearly 400,000 people have fled from their homes in the past six months, driven out by war and insecurity. Imagine a country where lawlessness is rampant and disease is spreading. 

Imagine a country described by its own Prime Minister as ‘an anarchy, a non-state’. Imagine a country where thousands of children are forced to join armed groups. Imagine a country whose descent into chaos and armed conflict is largely unknown in the outside world, because it is unreported.

Unfortunately there is no need to imagine such a country. It exists. It is the Central African Republic.

Once notorious for the rule of President Bokassa (1963-1979), who called it the Central African Empire and crowned himself as its Emperor, it has lapsed into obscurity and chronic instability. Its former President Francois Bozize was overthrown in a coup in March by rebels led by Michel Djotodia, the current and self-proclaimed President in this landlocked and ungoverned corner of Africa.

In the most recent violence, 60 people were reported dead in the village of Ganga, 125 miles north-east of the capital, Bangui. The village had apparently come under attack by supporters of the ousted President. Such random killings are everyday occurrences, despite the formation of self-defence groups and home guards.

The infrastructure is being destroyed. Disease is spreading unchecked, especially measles. Tens of thousands of people have sought refuge in the bush. The UN’s refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 390,000 have been internally displaced, of whom about half are children. More than 60,000 have fled to neighbouring countries.

Kuwait--First Case of MERS

The Kuwaiti government has confirmed the first case of MERS:

Kuwait's health ministry on Wednesday confirmed the country's first case of the deadly MERS coronavirus in a 47-year-old man, the official Kuna news agency reported.

"The first case of coronavirus has been discovered in the country for a citizen who was moved to the Infectious Diseases Hospital in a critical condition," Kuna quoted the health ministry as saying. 

The patient suffered from diabetes and high blood pressure, Kuna and other reports from the region said, without stating his identity, laboratory that confirmed he had MERS or or how he caught it. 

The doctor who diagnosed MERS in the patient has also been infected, daily al-Rai reported, citing unnamed medical sources. 

Kuwait the fifth state in the Gulf to report cases of MERS, which has killed already killed 64 people worldwide, the majority in Saudi Arabia.

Post Typhoon Chaos

The Daily Mail reports:

Desperation gripped the Philippine islands devastated by Typhoon Haiyan today as survivors were crushed to death when thousands of desperate people stormed a rice warehouse and aid convoys were attacked by gunmen.

Five days after one of the strongest storms ever recorded slammed into cities and towns in the central Philippines, anger and frustration boiled over as and survivors panicked over delays in supplies of food, water and medicine, some digging up underground water pipes and smashing them open.

... Some areas appeared to teeter near anarchy. ANC Television said security forces exchanged fire with armed men amid widespread looting of shops and warehouses for food, water and other supplies in the village of Abucay, part of worst-hit Tacloban in Leyte province.


Aid envoys being escorted by the Philippines army are now engaged in firefights with members of the New People's Army, the militant wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines, reported The Daily Telegraph.

Last night, two rebels were killed outside Matnog, a port at the southern tip of Luzon Island, after they attempted to hijack a Red Cross convoy bound for Samar.

Point of View Gallery

A gallery of photos of firearms showing what it would look like to sight the rifle--i.e., a view of the front sight through the rear sight. Interesting for firearms and history buffs.

China Attempting to Secure It's Access to Oil

From the National Interest:

In recent weeks, China has signed nearly $100 billion in energy contracts to increase Chinese access to the abundant petroleum resources of Central Asia. A major advantage of obtaining oil from Siberia and Central Asia is that it could travel to China overland—and thus beyond the reach of U.S. naval power.
Xi’s efforts are not limited to terra firma. He has also pressed for closer military and economic ties with Indonesia and Malaysia, the two countries which sit astride the Strait of Malacca, a crucial maritime “choke point.” Roughly 80 percent of China’s oil imports pass through this waterway, which is just two miles wide at its narrowest passage. By comparison, the oft-threatened Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has periodically promised to close to deny Persian Gulf oil to the global market, is twenty miles wide at its narrowest point.

An American naval blockade, most likely stemming from a conflict over Taiwan, is a nightmare scenario the Chinese regime clearly wishes to avoid. ...

Most observers believe China’s investment reflects the importance of petroleum access for sustaining the nation’s extraordinary economic growth ...


No doubt oil plays an important role in the Chinese economy, and by extension, the stability of its political regime. Yet this explanation overlooks a factor that is at least as important as prosperity: the crucial nature of oil for fighting modern wars.



In the past, military fuel shortages had disastrous effects on the battlefield, undermining both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan’s military efforts in World War II. Today’s conventional wisdom holds that such shortages are no longer a danger, based on the assumption that military oil consumption comprises only a tiny portion of a country’s overall petroleum demand. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I find that Chinese military fuel demand in a conventional conflict would be staggering—large enough, in fact, to strain its overall supplies. ... If a U.S. blockade cutting off oil imports coincided with a war against Taiwan, leaving China to fuel the war from domestic sources alone, China would eventually have to slash civilian aviation consumption by 75 percent to maintain a full military effort.

 Read the whole thing.

China Continues with Strategy to Contain India

Despite all the rhetoric, China's biggest challenge currently is the growing arms race with India. To counter this threat, China has been following a policy of containment. It has invested heavily in infrastructure (including ports) in Pakistan, and has done the same in Sri Lanka:

The Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday inaugurated the country's second highway, built thanks to a China's massive investment. The ceremony was attended by ministers and officials of the Chinese embassy in Colombo. Costing $ 291 million , the Colombo- Katunayake Expressway will improve traffic flow between the two cities , reducing transit times by 20 minutes. The highway also leads to the international airport of Bandaranayaike and has four interchanges: at Peliyagoda , Kerawalapitiya , Jael and Katunayake . As of 6pm yesterday - the official opening - the government has already earned 2.3 million rupees (about 12,700 Euros ), thanks to the motorway tolls .
... Beijing funded the highway with a loan from the China Export Import Bank ( Exim ) . 

... As soon as the thirty-year ethnic conflict ended, China emerged as a major donor and investor in the island, with loans of $ 1.2 billion in 2009 and 821 million dollars in 2010 . In 2011, the "contribution" fell to 784.7 million dollars, but the Asian giant remains Sri Lanka's largest trading partner, with investments in almost all major projects currently in progress according to the data of the Sri Lankan Ministry of Finance.


These project include the construction of a coal fired power station in the north- west ($ 1.3 billion) and more infrastructure in the south of the country for a total value of $ 4 billion . Among them, a port (1.2 billion dollars).


China is also one of the financiers of the Southern Expressway, Sri Lanka's first highway opened in 2011.

Greece Intercepts Arms Smugglers

The Russia Times reports:

The Greek Coastguard has intercepted a Sierra Leone-flagged cargo ship with around 20,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles on board. ...


The cargo ship Nour M, intercepted on Thursday night, was taken to the island of Symi the following morning under the escort of Coastguard vessels, where it was soon thereafter led to the island of Rhodes.

The vessel’s Turkish captain and seven crew members, two of whom were Turkish and five of whom were Indian, were placed under arrest, coastguard sources told the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (ANA-MPA).


The cargo was both larger than that declared on the ship’s manifest, and the ship did not have the proper UN documents to deliver cargo to a conflict zone. ...


“The exact destination of the arms and ammunition has yet to be verified," the coastguard statement read. Apart from the large quantity of firearms, the ship was also allegedly carrying a “large” quantity of explosives. A probe determined the ship had previously been used for drug trafficking.
Sources told ANA-MPA that the vessel had set sail from Ukraine, although the ship’s final destination remains unclear. Although the ports of Tartus in Syria and Tripoli in Libya had both been declared as destination ports to marine traffic systems, the Turkish Mediterranean port city of Iskenderun was declared as the destination port by the ship's captain.
... Maritime expert Mikhail Voitenko told Ukraine’s Vesti that the ship likely picked up its cargo in Istanbul.

Dick Metcalf Responds

Dick Metcalf, the former technical editor for Guns & Ammo, responds to his termination following his pro-gun control editorial. He writes:

If a respected editor can be forced to resign and a controversial writer's voice be shut down by a one-sided social-media and internet outcry, virtually overnight, simply because they dared to open a discussion or ask questions about a politically sensitive issue . . . then I fear for the future of our industry, and for our Cause. Do not 2nd Amendment adherents also believe in Freedom of Speech? Do Americans now fear open and honest discussion of different opinions about important Constitutional issues? Do voices from cyberspace now control how and why business decisions are made?

From its inception as "Cooper's Corner" in 1986 the back page column in Guns & Ammo has been intentionally designed to address controversial issues, and to invite reader response. By that standard, the December edition certainly succeeded--some might say, too well. But our intention was to provoke a debate, not to incite a riot (which is illegal under laws regulating the 1st Amendment).

In today's political climate within the community of firearms owners, even to open a discussion about whether 2nd Amendment rights can be regulated at all, is to be immediately and aggressively branded as anti-gun and anti-American by outspoken hard-corps pro-gunners who believe the answer is an absolute "NO!" And yes, I am fully aware of the many and varied historical/legal definitions of the term "well-regulated," and how they are used and misused.

I am also fully aware that the different rights enumerated in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and following amendments are different, and are regulated differently. But they are all regulated in some form or fashion, hopefully appropriate to their particular provisions. I further clearly understand that owning or driving a vehicle is not a constitutional right, and that keeping and bearing arms is. But both involve issues of public safety, which is why both are of great and immediate interest to a great number of Americans for much the same reasons. Should we not speak of both in the same sentence?

I call B.S. on Metcalf's comments. First of all, he is obviously confused as to the purpose of the Bill of Rights and, in particular, the First Amendment. The Constitution acts (in theory, anyway) as a restriction on government action. Metcalf exercised his First Amendment right when his editorial was published without any government restriction or interference. He doesn't have a Constitutional right to anger his readers without repercussions. He deliberately chose to be inflammatory and succeeded. His equating the response to a "riot" is disingenuous--in fact, it is downright dishonest. There are no mobs gathered outside his house.

Second, Metcalf suggested further regulations on what is already one of the most regulated rights under the Constitution. Gun owners have "compromised" for decades, but never once has the anti-gun crowd compromised. They simply bide their time, taking an inch here and there. Most gun owners have had enough, and said "no more."

Third, Metcalf speaks of "public safety." Yet, as a gun writer, he should be aware that if you were to remove black-on-black homicide from crime statistics, the United States would have one of the lowest murder rates in the world. If he wants to spark a debate, maybe the debate should be why such a small portion of our population is responsible for so much of the death and violence.

Blast from the Past

From The Eagle:

In the backyard of the creative director's mid-century modern home in West Lake Hills is a 1961 fallout shelter in near-mint condition.

Two retractable cots hang from one wall in a cramped room that is illuminated by a single light bulb. Nearby is a crank for the air shaft; across the way are spigots for water stored in tanks.

In one corner is a low, odd-looking toilet sheltered behind a plastic shower curtain.
"Probably leads right into the aquifer," Denham, 44, joked to the Austin American-Statesman (http://bit.ly/1bFWNe3) before pointing out a disabled periscope near the stairwell. "Perfect for the zombie apocalypse if it comes."

Lined on shelves of the shelter — built by a retired Air Force colonel who was also something of an inventor — are supplies and equipment for surviving a week or two underground. That was the length of time civil defense officials estimated — at least for public consumption — necessary for radioactive fallout from a nuclear bomb to clear away.

Among the most chilling artifacts: a Texas highway map posted on the wall. The shelter owner had carefully drawn cross hairs over San Antonio — where U.S. military forces were concentrated — along with what appear to be trajectories for fallout drift. (Oddly, the lines fan out to the southeast, defying the prevailing Texas winds.)

... Among the vintage gear neatly laid out in the shelter: A Geiger counter to test ambient radiation levels, a short-wave radio to monitor war news and a pen-like dosimeter to test radiation on one's person. Stacked nearby are crisp civil defense manuals, gas masks, heavy tools and first aid supplies.

The air crank next to the cots comes with an automatic alarm so shelterers didn't sleep through the periodic oxygen refreshment process.

Whimsical products — such as paper plates decorated with images of the cartoon character Dennis the Menace and a can of Florient Spice Hair Deodorant — contrast with the pitiless cans of MPF Multi-Purpose Food and a tin of 434 Survival Crackers.
Decaffinated Sanka, Coffeemate, Lipton Instant Tea and Instant Maxwell House Coffee sit side by side with Sterno, matches, candles and batteries.

Some of the products, such as Metrecal diet food, Bondware wax paper dishes and Lifebuoy Coral bar soap, are blasts from the retail past for anyone over a certain age.
To keep the family's mind off the nuclear waste above them, the owners also stashed a set of large, red dominoes.

There's nothing campy or fun, however, about the guns that Col. Robnett also had kept down there, or the bullets that the current owner removed.

Denham: "The neighbors told me he said: 'Don't bother knocking, because we won't be opening the door.'"

Super Typhoon Strikes Philippines

The Daily Mail reports that ground winds are as high as 195 mph, and that nearly 720,000 have been forced to evacuate.

Guns & Ammo Fires Dick Metcalf (Updated)

The Truth About Guns has the press release from Jim Bequette, the editor of Guns & Ammo. In it, Bequette admits it was a mistake to run Metcalf's editorial which suggested caving to the anti-gun/pro-crime agitprops. Bequette also announced that Eric Poole would be stepping up to take Metcalf's old position.

Metcalf certainly has a right to his opinions; however, the readers of Guns & Ammo also have a right on where to spend their money.

Updated (11/8/2013): Jim Barrett writing at TTAG doesn't buy Beguette's apology. After noting that Beguette is on way out shortly, Barrett postulates:

While I can’t explain Metcalf’s intentions in writing it, the fact is that Bequette, a short-timer editor, had very little to lose and lots to gain had this olive branch to civilian disarmers been better received by G&A’s readership. This looks to have been a trial balloon floated to test the waters. Why they though that would be a good idea given the year that gun owners just had is a mystery. Still, if the reception had been at all positive (or even neutral), G&A would have looked like a thought leader in bringing “reasonable discourse” to this issue of gun regulation. Instead, they got bulldozed (surprise!), they tossed Metcalf to the wolves and moved on.
As a result, I have to strongly question either Bequette’s supposed dedication to the Second Amendment or his intelligence. In either case, it makes me think that G&A is moving away from its core constituency as it apparently no longer seems to understand it. And I’m about done with them.

Saudi Arabia Readying To Take Delivery of Nuclear Weapons from Pakistan

The BBC reports that Saudi Arabia may be readying to take delivery of nuclear warheads from Pakistan in light of the United States' failure to reign in Iran's nuclear weapons development. This apparently has been a long term contingency plan:

The story of Saudi Arabia's project - including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges - goes back decades.
In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China.

These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago.

This summer experts at defence publishers Jane's reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran.

It has also been clear for many years that Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan's defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs.

Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.


... Because of this circumstantial evidence, allegations of a Saudi-Pakistani nuclear deal started to circulate even in the 1990s, but were denied by Saudi officials.


... One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal - probably unwritten - his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically "what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn't charity."


Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed "the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred."

As for the seriousness of the Saudi threat to make good on the deal, Simon Henderson, Director of the Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told BBC Newsnight "the Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don't bluff on this issue."

 The story also indicates that Saudi Arabia has publicly and privately told Washington that it would acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did so. It also suggests that the arrangement with Pakistan may involve Pakistani troops keeping possession of and operating the weapon systems in Saudi Arabia to avoid any complications with Pakistani "delivering nuclear technology" to another country, or Saudi Arabia breaching the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, which it has signed.

While investigating this, I have heard rumours on the diplomatic grapevine, that Pakistan has recently actually delivered Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, minus warheads.

These reports, still unconfirmed, would suggest an ability to deploy nuclear weapons in the kingdom, and mount them on an effective, modern, missile system more quickly than some analysts had previously imagined.

In Egypt, Saudi Arabia showed itself ready to step in with large-scale backing following the military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi's government.

There is a message here for Pakistan, of Riyadh being ready to replace US military assistance or World Bank loans, if standing with Saudi Arabia causes a country to lose them.

 (H/t Drudge)

Disabling the MRAP

Although the authors of the article assume a scenario where U.S. military and/or law enforcement forces are assisting in a coup or other unlawful usurpation of government, I would also point out that the wide-spread distribution of MRAP vehicles among law enforcement actually increases the likelihood that gangs or looters could obtain those vehicles following a major disaster or loss of rule of law.

I am reminded of the accounts of the breakup of Yugoslavia and the fall of the Romanian communist government, where groups of people quickly looted military and police arsenals. You can be sure that there are people that have contingency plans to do the same here if there was a loss of rule of law--perhaps the very people that are responsible for safekeeping armories. Moreover, the principles of this article are generally applicable to other vehicles. So, even if you do not agree or sympathize with the militia mindset, the information may be useful.

Russia Conducts Nuclear Drills

You might want to dust off those old "how to survive a nuclear attack" films and books. From Investors Business Daily:

On Wednesday, Russian strategic forces carried out a large-scale surprise military drill that included the test launch of two land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and two submarine-launched ballistic missiles. 

So while Russia expands and tests its offensive and defensive missile capabilities, President Obama lets our missile capabilities wither and caves to Russian demands to halt previously planned expansion. 

To placate Moscow, Obama has already betrayed our allies in Poland and the Czech Republic by abandoning plans to deploy ground-based interceptors and missile defense in those countries. 

Our Chinese friends have also noticed that the famous "reset" button has been replaced with one marked "easy." China's military carried out on July 24 a third test of a long-range DF-31A road-mobile ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S. with nuclear warheads. 

According to a recently published report by the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center, "China has the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world." 

Last Monday, Chinese state-run media — including China Central TV, the People's Daily, the Global Times, the PLA Daily, the China Youth Daily and the Guangmin Daily — ran identical, top-headlined reports boasting of the "awesomeness" of the People's Liberation Army navy's strategic submarine force. 

It is indeed formidable. China's sub fleet is reportedly the world's second-largest, with about 70 vessels. About 10 are nuclear-powered, and four or more of those are nuclear ballistic submarines. 

In 2010, the Type 094 Jin class entered the service. It is capable of launching 12 to 16 JL-2 missiles with a range of about 8,700 miles, covering much of the continental U.S. with single or multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle warheads.

And why you are at it, you might want to read this article from the Daily Mail describing how close the United States and the Soviet Union came to war in 1983, because the Soviets very nearly misinterpreted drills and maneuvers as an attack on the Soviet Union.

Is The U.S. Facing a Brain Drain?

RT News reports:

Two fundamental building blocks for any modern technological, progressive economy are discovery research and scientific investigation. By their nature, these two pursuits carry a much slower return on the investment. In the past, the US could afford to be patient because its thriving industrial sector was a magnet for the word’s talent and investment - which is why successive governments have routinely placed their dollars there. That engine which used to power the US juggernaut has been disassembled and shipped overseas.  

Politicians will certainly blame the current crisis in academia on sequestration and partisan feuds over federal budgets, but that’s only part of the story. Cuts are not only consigned to federal budgets. According to a report by the National Science Foundation, States have also cut funds for public research universities by 20 percent, in constant dollars, between 2002 and 2010. If money is cut back, that means researchers are laid off, programs are frozen, and labs are closed. As a result, talent will begin to look abroad for better opportunities.  

According to a recent interview by RT with Benjamin Corb, a public affairs director for the American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology (ASBMB), indicators for a ‘brain drain’ from the US are already starting to manifest throughout higher education. 

 “As a survey that we put together over the summer shows, one in five American scientists are considering leaving the country for better funding opportunities outside our borders,” he said.  

The ASBMB survey also found that half the researchers had either laid off, or were expecting to lay off staff due to federal budget cuts. This includes letting go of technical staff, but more crucially it’s hurting the future crop of highly skilled experts - graduate, PhD, postdoctoral and resident trainees. It’s becoming a noticeable issue, even for some of the country’s, if not the world’s, perennially top higher education institutions like Harvard and the University of Chicago medical schools, as well as the New York State University system, to name only a few. 

Another Perspective Against the Rural Retreat

Modern Survival Online republished an article about the financial collapse in New Zealand in 1984, and the aftermath. The author lived in a rural community. The first point she made was that as the government cut back on jobs and benefits, it did so first in the rural communities where it wouldn't receive press coverage. She writes:

One night the new government withdrew all subsidies from the farmers. We had a plant nursery and about 60% of our turnover was from servicing the farmers. Overnight the farmers closed up their check books and stopped buying anything. Within weeks the forestry employees lost their jobs. They had bought about 20% of our stock. The local town used to service the farmers and the forestry workers and all the small businesses cash-flows were similarly effected further impacting on each others cash flow as the money ceased to flow through the community. Other rural areas had the same problems and as the coal mines were shut down and the railway employees lost their jobs things became dire. Many rural businesses sunk without trace and rural communities suffered.

But she also writes about the social deterioration, starting with the ostracization of those who lost their jobs due to the government's financial "restructuring." But it became worse, although not as bad as Argentina and Russia experienced:

The local rural community got nasty. People got picked on socially. This was particularly so when newcomers – those who had moved in to the community in the last 25 years, still had jobs and the old timers lost theirs. Male violence against women sky rocketed. But it was all private violence. It didn’t spill out into the streets. When a woman was raped or beaten up in the home, it was understood to be her fault, not the males.

It was not a nice place to be and we, along with many others went to the city. There was still the promise of work in the cities, though it didn’t eventuate to much. There we looked after each other much more. We were all in the same boat. There was probably violence hidden behind closed doors, but I didn’t hear about it. We struggled from week to week, sought work where we could get it and took the chance to get an education when work wasn’t available. 

She sums up:

 It was hard, hard, hard. But we didn’t think to bug out to the country – we went from the country to the city instead. We went to where we hoped we could find work. We went to where the resources were.

Best Wood for Heating

A chart from Modern Survival Blog:



Please also read the accompanying article and comments.

The Essential Bike Commute List

A list of "must-have" and "nice-to-have" items for bike commutes at the Active Times.

Attending a Presentation by the Local Emergency Management Agency

My wife and I recently attended a presentation by our local emergency management agency (county and city level). It primarily was intended to be motivational over offering specific suggestions, but it was nevertheless informative. Although I have always been reluctant to identify where I live for op-sec reasons, I think I will at least identify the state because some of the resources available are too valuable to not share.

We live in Idaho. One thing that I learned is that Idaho is actually one of the highest rated in the nation for earthquake risks, both as to the number of quakes and the potential for damage. The presenter brought along a nearly 40-page booklet published by the State that outlined the risks of earthquakes, briefly described historic earthquakes in our area, and preparing for an earthquake. You can request copies by sending an email to Citizen.corps@bhs.idaho.gov, or by going to http://www.bhs.idaho.gov or http://www.idahogeology.org/

The booklet included not only information on identifying risks around your home, but mitigating hazards, creating a disaster-preparedness plan, and disaster supply kits (i.e, a 72-hour kit). It also described tips for surviving a quake. The presenter noted that with modern building codes, it is generally safer to stay in a building than to be outside. Office buildings are designed so that glass windows will shatter outward, and the buildings should survive even a strong quake. The primary advice in that situation was "drop, cover, and hold on" (I guess to distinguish it from the old "drop and cover" for a nuclear explosion). It suggests:

If are not near a desk or table, drop to the floor against an interior wall and protect your head and neck with your arms. Avoid exterior walls, windows, hanging objects, mirrors, tall furniture, large appliances, and cabinets filled with heavy objects. Do not go outside until well after the shaking stops.

The exception to this advice are old stone or masonry (e.g., brick) buildings, which are prone to collapse.

In a change from past advice, the presenter told us to NOT turn off the gas main to the house unless we smell gas. The reason is that, unless you have a newer home with a second shutoff after the pressure diaphragm, if you shut off your gas, you must call the gas company to turn the gas back on without damaging your gas system (the gas coming to your house is at a much higher pressure than is what is used in your house, and if you don't do it right, turning on the gas can destroy the diaphragm that regulates the pressure for your house's gas lines). So, if you needlessly turn off your gas, it could leave you without gas for heating or cooking when you need it most....

Although Idaho has many dams, both large and small, the danger from an earthquake is not primarily that of a catastrophic failure, but of a seiche--water sloshing over the dam--and causing a subsequent flood.

The presenter also discussed dangers from flooding and wild/forest fires. Because of how little warning a person may have as to a fire or flood, he recommended that our goal should be that we can evacuate our homes in 8-10 minutes. That is, it should take us only 8 to 10 minutes to get our disaster kit, water, and anything else packed into a vehicle and be leaving our home.

Although the presenter indicated that not all states are this way, Idaho apparently has integrated its warning systems with the NOAA weather radio. Thus, an earthquake, fire, flood, or other disaster warning will be broadcast over the NOAA system, including the emergency alert. If you have an NOAA weather alert radio, it will also activate because of these other disasters. Good reason to buy and keep an NOAA radio at hand.

Idaho also has an alert and warning system available as an app you can install on your smart phone. More information is available at www.isaws.org.

Primary emergency response falls upon local and state agencies. The presenter noted that FEMA's primary purpose is to serve as a "giant checkbook" for local agencies in the event of a disaster. Nevertheless, FEMA has good information at its website, and publishes a emergency preparedness guide called "Are You Ready? A Guide to Citizen Preparedness." I haven't ordered a copy yet, but the information we were provided indicated that "[t]his booklet provides a step-by-step outline on how to prepare a disaster supply kit, emergency planning for people with disabilities, how to locate and evacuate to a shelter, and even contingency planning for family pets." It can be ordered at no cost to you at 1-800-480-2520.

Being LDS, it was both amusing and gratifying to hear that the Church plays an important role in disaster planning for Idaho. Because LDS churches are built so far above minimum code standards, they actually represent one of the safer places to evacuate to, and will often serve as evacuation shelters. Also, even though the State and local agencies have back-up communication systems, they also recognize and have contingencies for making use of the Church's emergency network of shortwave operators.

Although the presenter did not discuss this, our local church will once a year pass around "sign up" sheets for people to list special equipment or skills that they have that can be used in the event of a natural disaster. These include not just standard skills you might think of, such as medical training, but also language skills in order to communicate with people that may not be proficient in English.

Making More Efficient Use of Your Storage Space

One of the funnier scenes in The R.M. (an LDS comedy movie) is when the main character, a newly returned missionary, first goes to use his bed in his old bedroom at his parents' house. As he lays down on the bed, he hears a bunch of crinkling. Lifting up the bed spread, he discovers that his parents have replaced his mattress with packages of stored food as part of their year supply.

I think that one of the most difficult parts of storing food and water is simply finding a place to store the food. There is a family in our ward that has a basement storage room set up like a supermarket, with neatly organized shelves, a small shopping cart, and a clipboard to note down everything they take out of storage as they use it so they can then replace it in the future. But not all of us live in a 5,000 square foot house. Storage issues can be particularly acute if you live in an apartment (as my wife and I did for many years) or in a house without a basement (as we currently do).

Another member of our ward installed an ingenious system in his interior walls. He removed interior paneling, installed shelves, and then reinstalled the paneling with slots wide enough to place and extract canned food from the spaces. I've also known people that have used the storage cans and buckets to provide a "base" for a "table," and then put a piece of plywood or whatever over the top, covered it all with a table cloth. If you are good at woodworking, there are shelves and canned foot storage units that you can make to maximize your space.

We have a large coat closet that we turned over to food storage, and part of our linen closet that we use, our pantry (of course) and then have 5 gallon buckets stored at different locations around the house, in corners and behind cupboards. (We used another closet as well, but when my daughter got married earlier this year, we emptied it out and sent the food with her so she and her husband could get a jump start on food storage). I don't feel comfortable storing food stuffs in our garage because of the temperature extremes, particularly in the summer when temperatures can easily get up to 100 degrees or more, although I do keep drums of water out there.

 Skean Dhude, at UK Survival has also some thoughts on maximizing storage space that are worth reading.

If Inflation Was Calculated Now...

... the same was as in 1980, the current inflation would be between 8 and 10%.

How Far Does Forgiveness Extend?

Spiegel Online has a story that raises one of the greatest moral dilemmas a person--a victim--could face.  It is the story of one of the former warlords in Liberia, Joshua Milton Blahyi (aka, "General Butt Naked"), who believes that he was responsible for at least 20,000 deaths and countless other atrocities. In a just society, he would have been executed as a mass murderer and war criminal. Yet, today, he is a Christian priest who tries to find his victims and seek their forgiveness.

Blahyi had a reputation for being more brutal than other military leaders. Everyone knows his nom de guerre, which he says he will never lose: General Butt Naked. He was a cannibal who preferred to sacrifice babies, because he believed that their death promised the greatest amount of protection. He went into battle naked, wearing only sneakers and carrying a machete, because he believed that it made him invulnerable -- and he was in fact never hit by a bullet. His soldiers would make bets on whether a pregnant woman was carrying a boy or a girl, and then they would slit open her belly to see who was right.

... There are only a few people in the world accused of a similar number of murders as Blahyi. But no one responded to the accusations against him in the same way he did. Kaing Guek Eav, the head of the Khmer Rouge prison camp in Cambodia, where about 15,000 people were tortured and murdered, referred to himself as an ordinary secretary who had obeyed orders, like everyone else in the machinery. Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic, accused of acts of genocide that led to the deaths of 8,000 people in Srebrenica and 11,000 in Sarajevo, called the accusations "monstrous words" that he had never heard before. And General Augustin Bizimungu, who helped write the death lists in Rwanda, said nothing at all.

Blahyi answered each question conscientiously, even when he was asked about the taste of human flesh. The record of the hearing, in which he is confronted with his earlier statements, is kept on file in Liberia's national archive.

... Blahyi was never punished for his crimes. The Truth Commission's only mandate was to investigate the crimes. The International Criminal Court in The Hague only has jurisdiction over crimes committed since it was founded in 2002. A special tribunal with the power of prosecuting earlier crimes, like the ones for Rwanda, Cambodia and the former Yugoslavia, was never established for Liberia.

... Nevertheless, Blahyi is convinced that there will eventually be a special tribunal for Liberia.

"Would you be prepared to spend the rest of your life in prison?"



"I would accept it willingly, as well as the death penalty. Even if I could run away, I would not run away. My Lord Jesus says: "Give to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's."

"How do you atone for your sins?"

"I visit the people I have hurt, the victims of my crimes. I try to help them."

"You ask for forgiveness?"

"Yes. That's the most difficult moment. I couldn't feel anything in the past. Now I feel their pain."

"What are you afraid of?"

"That I will meet the Lord tomorrow, and he will say: 'You have wasted the opportunity that I have given you.'"

While still a murderous warlord, Blahyi was approached Bishop John Kun Kun of the Soul Winning Church in Monrovia, and told him: "All I wanted to tell you is that Jesus loves you, and that he has a better plan for your life." Blahyi killed the bodyguard that let the Bishop in to see him, but met with the Bishop again to pray.

This raises the question of whether their can be forgiveness for such a monster. I believe that there must be the possibility of forgiveness from God (although Blahyi may need to answer to an Earthly tribunal--I don't think his conversion, even if true, should excuse him from the consequences of the law), or else what was Christ's sacrifice for? However, I also believe that Blahyi must now act with a goodness commensurate in magnitude to his former evil, never failing, in order to be worthy of God's mercy and grace.

It is certainly a story to make you think.

The Gathering of Israel

Haaretz reports on the immigration of a Jewish community from India:

“After 2,000 years in exile we would have lost our community,” Lhundgim said. “All of our lives were about how to move to Israel and keep the commandments.” 

It’s not hard to understand why Lhundgim sees his life story as one of biblical prophecy fulfilled. Until age 24, he lived in a remote corner of northeast India in a community that believes itself to be descended from the ancient Israelite tribe of Menashe. Ritual similarities to Judaism — such as an animal sacrifice around Passover time — strengthened those beliefs. 

Today, Lhundgim is among some 2,000 Bnei Menashe that live in Israel; another 5,000 are in the pipeline waiting to immigrate. This week, the Israeli government gave approval for 899 more Bnei Menashe to come. 

The community has been permitted to move en masse despite practicing rituals in India with only glancing similarity to Judaism and claims of ancient Jewish ancestry that some politicians and experts find dubious.

 The article goes on to discuss the disputes that have arisen over letting the Bnei Menashe to immigrate to Israel.