Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Another Biden Foreign Policy/Military Disaster

You might remember last summer that Niger suffered a military led coup. The U.S. had a large airbase in Niger that it used for the GWOT and probably other things. Russia apparently offered encouragement to the junta, because when faced with the threat of military intervention from leaders in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the junta's rulers asked for assistance from Russia's Wagner Group which has provided "assistance" to other countries in the region in kicking out the French.   

    The Biden Administration apparently believed that the American airbase was going to serve as leverage over the junta leaders, but it didn't turn out that way. Rather, as described in an April 18, 2024 article, "Nightmare in Niger — Exclusive: Biden Administration Leaves Hundreds of U.S. Troops ‘Hostage’ in Niger" from Breitbart, Niger insisted on kicking the U.S. forces out of the country, but Biden would not let the airmen and troops leave:

    More than 1,000 U.S. troops are effectively being held “hostage” in Niger with medical supplies running low — stuck between the military junta-controlled government’s demands for them to leave and the Biden administration’s refusal to let them go home after the end of their deployments, according to a report prepared by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and obtained exclusively by Breitbart News.

    In addition, the report accuses Biden administration officials of trying to cover up the situation to lawmakers, as well as to troops deployed there and their families anxiously awaiting their return.

    “Our troops are currently sitting on a powder keg caused by political indecision at the top of the Department of State and Department of Defense. With a military junta in charge — who detests our presence and considers us unserious and predatory — the situation seems to be setting the groundwork for catastrophic diplomatic collapse like we saw during the 2012 Benghazi attack. Additionally, these troops are already running short on necessary, life-saving supplies, such as blood and medications,” the report by Gaetz’s office said.

    “They are, in effect, hostages of an indecisive Commander-in-Chief,” the report said.

    The report is based on interviews by Gaetz’s office with troops currently stationed in Niger, who reached out to Gaetz’s office after they did not receive assistance from the Departments of Defense and State.

    The service members are currently deployed to Airbase 101 (AB101) in the capital of Niger, Niamey, as part of the 768th Expeditionary Airbase Squadron (768 EABS), which is comprised of active duty and reserve forces, Air National Guard airmen, Army Special Forces and contract support. There are about 450 personnel at Air Base 101. Until the takeover by the junta, the base was a major hub for U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) against terrorist groups Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State in West Africa, Boko Haram, and Ansaru. It was also a hub for U.S. military advisers supporting Niger’s forces.

    The U.S. troop presence became threatened after the military junta, known as the Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP), or the National Council for the Safeguard of the Fatherland, declared it had taken over the country on July 26, 2023. Just a few months before, Secretary of State Antony Blinken had praised Niger as “a model of resilience, a model of democracy, a model of cooperation.”

    The junta declared in March 2024 a cancellation of the military accords with the U.S., after a series of meetings with Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee and U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) Commander Marine Gen. Michael Langley, according to the report.

So the result? Reminiscent of Afghanistan:

Diversity We Can All Get Behind

Ammoland reports that Colt is introducing new barrel lengths for the Colt Python line to include 5-inch and 2.5-inch models. This is in addition to 3", 4.25", and 6" models already available. (As I understand it, the 4.25" instead of 4" has to do with quirk of Canadian law that requires handguns to have barrels longer than 4 inches for civilian ownership).

Transgenders In The News

Some stories that caught my attention over the last week or two:

Latest Efforts To Produce A Reactionless Drive Show Promising Results

From The Debrief, "NASA Veteran’s Propellantless Propulsion Drive That Physics Says Shouldn’t Work Just Produced Enough Thrust To Overcome Earth’s Gravity." This is apparently different from the EmDrive. The thrust produced by the latest test device purportedly is equal to one G--i.e., Earth's gravity. As for the technology, the article relates:

    After decades of research, Buhler says he and his team had shown unequivocally that a new, fundamental force was at work and that his devices were tapping into that force to produce thrust without emitting any mass or propellant.

    “Essentially, what we’ve discovered is that systems that contain an asymmetry in either electrostatic pressure or some kind of electrostatic divergent field can give a system of a center of mass a non-zero force component,” Buhler explained. “So, what that basically means is that there’s some underlying physics that can essentially place force on an object should those two constraints be met.”

 Sounds interesting, but we will need to see if anyone else can reproduce his results.

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

The Bystander Effect--Fact And Fiction

 Greg Ellifritz's most recent Weekend Knowledge Dump included a link to an article on the bystander effect published at Aeon Magazine and entitled "Good Samaritans after all" by Melanie McGrath. The article discusses some recent research into what is termed "the bystander effect": "a social psychological phenomenon in which individuals are less likely to offer help to a victim when other people are present.

        The classic example of the bystander effect is the murder of Kitty Genovese in New York City in 1964, where numerous witnesses allegedly failed to render assistance and ignored screams for help from Genovese who stabbed and severely wounded by her attacker, who then left because he thought her cries for help would draw attention, then later returned and killed Genovese. The story was sensationalized by The New York Times, which was later revealed to have grossly misreported and misrepresented the facts. When The New York Times finally came clean in 2016, it reported:
While there was no question that the attack occurred, and that some neighbors ignored cries for help, the portrayal of 38 witnesses as fully aware and unresponsive was erroneous. The article grossly exaggerated the number of witnesses and what they had perceived. None saw the attack in its entirety. Only a few had glimpsed parts of it, or recognized the cries for help. Many thought they had heard lovers or drunks quarreling. There were two attacks, not three. And afterward, two people did call the police. A 70-year-old woman ventured out and cradled the dying victim in her arms until they arrived. Ms. Genovese died on the way to a hospital.
Thus, the Genovese incident is, in fact, a very poor example as to the bystander effect because people had indeed heard her initial cries for help and called the police. But Genovese had made her way into the vestibule at the back entrance of the apartment building, and so was no longer visible. (The police did not initially respond, thinking that it was a domestic dispute). When her attacker returned and found her, she was no longer in view or hearing of bystanders. Nevertheless, her final cries were heard by a neighbor who found her and tried to help her, and police were called. Unfortunately, as noted earlier, Genovese died en route to the hospital.

    Returning to the article at Aeon Magazine, McGrath notes that the bystander effect was first described in 1968 by the social psychologists Bibb Latané at Columbia University in New York and John Darley at New York University, and motivated by the New York Time's largely fictional account of the Genovese murder. McGrath explains:

Latané and Darley’s research suggested that the greater the number of onlookers the less likely anyone was to step in, especially if others around them appeared calm or unconcerned. Whereas lone bystanders stepped forward to help a victim 85 per cent of the time, only 31 per cent of witnesses intervened when they were part of a group of five. Latané and Darley labelled this phenomenon ‘diffusion of responsibility’, which along with ‘evaluation apprehension’ (concern about how any intervention might be interpreted) and ‘pluralistic ignorance’ (if everyone else seems calm, there’s nothing to worry about) make up what has become known as the bystander effect or bystander apathy.

 But, McGrath goes on, more recent research suggests that Latané and Darley’s model is far too simplistic and perhaps needs to be abandoned. She writes:

More recent studies suggest that bystanders do (or do not) intervene for reasons far more complex and individuated than Latané and Darley’s psychosocial model allows. In fact, the newest research calls that model into question entirely, suggesting that the way our brains process a violent event in the immediate instant, when intervention is most likely, is largely reflexive and unconscious. When it comes to witnessing violence, bystanders are in general more likely to intervene once cognition overrides reflexes, whether or not they are in groups. Understanding bystander responses this way challenges the idea that our moral compasses turn sketchy when we can offload responsibility for the Good Samaritan stuff onto somebody else; plus, when it comes to matters of survival, it suggests that some kind of group solidarity or species-wide empathy comes into play. Instead of characterising us as shirkers, willing to let others step up, this model argues that, when someone else’s survival might be at stake, we tend to do the right thing – and when we don’t, it could be the result of neurological processes beyond our immediate control. The implications for social psychology, ethics, the law and policy could be profound.

Gangs Will Rule The Cities Post-SHTF

Yesterday, I came across this article at the New York Post: "Haiti capital now a ‘battlefield’ as gangs take control ahead of government transition: ‘Continue burning the houses’." From the lede:

    Haiti’s capital has been thrown into further chaos after its top warlord ordered his soldiers to “burn every house you find” – as the nation struggles to usher in a new government.

    Notorious gang leader Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, 47, was heard on social media messages on Sunday inciting his men to clash against police and burn down homes indiscriminately across Port-au-Prince, including Lower Delmas where he grew up. 

    “Continue burning the houses. Make everybody leave,” says a man in the audio recordings who is believed to be Cherizier.   

    “No need to know which house. Burn every house you find. Set the fire,” he adds, claiming to have sent jugs of gasoline to the gangsters. 

The article also notes that "[w]ith officials and human rights groups estimating that as much as 90% of the capital is now controlled by violent gangs, fears have grown that Cherizier has united them in an effort to seize control of the nation during a period of transition." 

    The events in Haiti prompted Modern Survival Blog to updated and republished an article entitled "Gangs WILL Rule The Cities." An excerpt:

    Gangs already rule the ‘dark underground’ of today’s cities. When civil society collapses they will be unleashed and unbounded, enabled by the chaos that will become the new reality.

    During this time, many within law enforcement will likely be more concerned about the safety and well-being of their own families and their own homes, choosing to stay and defend their own.

    Logic dictates that even if .gov declares Martial Law it will only have limited effects. It is highly unlikely in my estimation that America’s cities and city regions could be controlled if we all collapse into social chaos, upheaval, and systemic breakdowns of supply and infrastructure.

    People living in cities and even the immediate population-dense suburbs will be subjected to a very cruel and unusual environment. They will be HIGHLY at risk from foraging gangs.

    Think about this… It is one thing to protect yourself and your family from an intruder. But how will you protect yourself and your family from a gang mob?

    NEWS FLASH TIP: Don’t live in those regions.

The author has more warnings, but the gist of the article is to encourage you to move out of the cities and to more stable rural areas. 

    I have to say that urban street gangs are not the whole picture. Many rural areas have their own gangs (mostly comprised of Hispanics) that control much of the local drug production and distribution as well as having their hands in other illegal activities. Perhaps, in a SHTF environment, these gangs may be quickly eliminated by law enforcement or vigilantes; but any agricultural area will have large populations of Hispanic workers and their families that might take umbrage to such action. Why do you think there is a growing push to allow non-citizens to be able to legally possess firearms? To take the urban conflict into the rural regions. And, in any event,  there will be plenty of other people that may see SHTF as an opportunity to become a warlord. 

    I'm not saying that you shouldn't get out of the cities and large metro areas--the numbers and density of gangs and the unprepared will be much lower in rural locales--but that just because you move to a rural area does not mean that it is going to be all roses. 

The Most Popular TV Shows 1986-2022

Below is an interesting video showing the top TV shows each year, as well as the number of viewers (I think it is going through a month at a time) for the period 1986 through 2022. A couple interesting things I noted while watching it. 

    First, the viewership numbers for a given television program have fallen dramatically. In the latter half of the 1980s, all the top 10 shows had average viewership of over 30 million, and the top 5 had viewership numbers in excess of 40 million (although in 1986, The Cosby Show had over 60 million viewers followed by Family Ties with more than 50 million). 

    By the mid-90s, the overall numbers per show had dropped with the lower 2 or 3 programs not breaking 30 million, and only the top 2 or 3 exceeding 40 million. 

    Getting into the 2000s, the majority of programs had viewership below 30 million and only one or two would exceed 40 million. In the 2010s, there were a few shows that would exceed 40 million (and Game of Thrones even broke the 50 million at one point), but the audience numbers for the remainder of the top 10 were generally well below 30 million. 

    Finally, around 2020, something seemed to break. The majority of top 10 programs were struggling to get more than 20 million viewers and only one or two shows could break the 30 million mark. And by the end of 2022, most of the shows in the top 10 were not even breaking the 20 million viewers mark and none were breaking the 30 million mark.

    To look at this in another way, the #10 rated show in 1986 drew an audience of 34 million while the top rated show had an audience of 61 million. At the end of 2022, the #10 rated show was drawing an audience just shy of 15 million and the top rated show was only drawing 25 million.

    Second, the type of shows that dominated the top 10 changed. In 1986, 8 of the top 10 shows were situation comedies, and the other two were dramas (a mystery and an evening soap opera). This ratio pretty much held all the way to 1995 when more dramas started making their appearance. But by 2000, just over half (6 programs) were dramas. By 2010, the ratio had completely reversed from 1986, with 8 of the top 10 shows being dramas and only two comedies. Near the end of 2020, the top 10 went completely over to dramas. It looks like a sitcom, Ghosts, made an appearance at the end of 2022 at #10, but it clear that dramas completely dominate television at this point. 

Data Is Beautiful (11 min.)

Breaking News: Mistrial Declared In Trial Of Arizona Rancher Accused Of Killing Mexican Invader

 ABC27 News reports that "Arizona judge declares mistrial in the case of a rancher accused of fatally shooting a migrant."  George Alan Kelly, 75, has been charged with the second degree murder of Gabriel Cuen-Buitimea, an illegal alien that had crossed the border onto Kelly's ranch. Cuen-Buitimea is a repeat offender: "Court records show Cuen-Buitimea had previously entered the U.S. illegally several times and was deported, most recently in 2016."

    As you might remember, Kelly had seen illegals (probably cartel members) at various times armed with probably automatic weapons. Per this article from KOB 4:

    Cuen-Buitimea was in a group of men that Kelly encountered on his property. Prosecutor Mike Jette said Kelly recklessly fired an AK-47 rifle toward the group that was about 100 yards (90 meters) away.

    Kelly said he fired warning shots in the air, but he didn’t shoot directly at anyone, explaining that he feared for his safety and that of his wife and property.

    “He says he shot 100 yards over their heads. But he never told law enforcement that he was in fear of his life,” Jette said in closing arguments.

    Kelly fired nine shots toward the group, according to Jette, who said Cuen-Buitimea suffered three broken ribs and a severed aorta.

    Jette encouraged jurors to find Kelly guilty of reckless manslaughter or negligent homicide if they can’t convict him on the murder charge.

    Defense attorney Brenna Larkin, in her closing argument, said Kelly “was in a life or death situation” that was “a terrifying scenario” for him.

    “He was confronted with a threat right outside his home,” Larkin said. “He would have been absolutely justified to use deadly force, but he did not.”

    An anonymous caller had later alerted authorities that there was a dead body on the ranch, which was Cuen-Buitimea, allegedly killed by Kelly, although Kelly is adamant that he shot above the illegals and no bullet was ever recovered. Even the path of the bullet through the dead illegal is inconsistent with his being shot at a distance by Kelly. 

    In any event, the ABC 27 article reports, "[t]he decision [to declare a mistrial] came after jurors failed to reach a unanimous decision after more than two full days of deliberation[.]" 

    “Based upon the jury’s inability to reach a verdict on any count,” Superior Court Judge Thomas Fink said, “This case is in mistrial.”

    The Santa Cruz County Attorney’s Office can still decide whether to retry Kelly for any charge, or drop the case all together.

    A status hearing was scheduled for next Monday afternoon, when prosecutors could inform the judge if they plan to refile the case. Prosecutors did not immediately respond to emailed requests for additional comment.

The article also states:

    After Monday’s ruling, Consul General Marcos Moreno Baez of the Mexican consulate in Nogales, Arizona, said he would wait with Cuen-Buitimea’s two adult daughters on Monday evening to meet with prosecutors from Santa Cruz County Attorney’s Office to learn about the implications of a mistrial.

    “Mexico will continue to follow the case and continue to accompany the family, which wants justice.” said Moreno. “We hope for a very fair outcome.”

By "fair" they mean that they want to see Kelly spend the rest of his natural life in prison. By "justice" they want to be able to sue Kelly and take all of his assets. 

Monday, April 22, 2024

Now If They Can Only Make Glowing Squirrels

If you have watched the television series, Better Off Ted, you will understand the title to this post. If you haven't seen the series, you are really missing out.

    In any event, I just received notice from Light Bio that my genetically modified bioluminescent petunias just shipped. I'm not expecting a super bright glow, but it should be interesting. I'll give a review once I receive them. 

The Usual Suspects

Another Biden Foreign Policy/Military Disaster

You might remember last summer that Niger suffered a military led coup. The U.S. had a large airbase in Niger that it used for the GWOT and ...