The Thai-Cambodian Conflict

 It seems that Thailand and Cambodia may be on the verge of war. The casus belli in this case are accusations by Thailand that Cambodia has been laying land mines along the border, but this appears to be a continuation of old disputes over the border. PBS News reports:

    The Southeast Asian neighbors have longstanding border disputes that periodically flare along their 800-kilometer (500-mile) frontier and usually result in brief confrontations, only sometimes involving the use of weapons. The last time a major armed confrontation over the issue took place was in 2011, causing 20 deaths.

    But relations have deteriorated sharply since a confrontation in May that killed a Cambodian soldier, and Thursday’s clashes were far bigger in scale and intensity than usual.

    The first clash Thursday morning happened in an area near the ancient Ta Muen Thom temple along the border of Thailand’s Surin province and Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey province. It caused villagers to scurry to shelter in concrete bunkers.

    The Thai army and Cambodia’s Defense Ministry each said the other side deployed drones before advancing on the other’s positions and opening fire. The two sides later used heavier weaponry such as artillery, causing greater damage and casualties, and Thailand said it responded to truck-mounted rockets launched by Cambodia with airstrikes.

    Thailand’s air force said it deployed F-16 jet fighters in two attacks on Cambodia. Nikorndej, the Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson, called it “an act of self-defense” in response to the Cambodian rockets.

    Cambodia’s Defense Ministry said the Thai jets dropped bombs on a road near the ancient P reah Vihear temple, which has been a site of past conflicts between the countries.

    Cambodian authorities distributed photos they claimed showed damage caused there, and the country’s Culture Ministry said it would pursue justice under international law, since the temple was declared a World Heritage site by UNESCO, the U.N.’s cultural organization, and is a “historical legacy of the Cambodian people.”   

However, an article from Time Magazine suggests that it may be more than just territorial disputes at play here:

    For one, the Cambodian economy is not doing well, and Hun Sen may spy an opportunity for his unpopular son to demonstrate his leadership chops. Additionally, Hun Sen may want a diversion from recent scrutiny on Cambodia’s illicit businesses—including casinos, human trafficking, and scam centers—which according to some estimates account for up to 40% of GDP. Hun Manet’s failure to deal with the “scamdemic,” as the U.N. has dubbed it, has even led to calls for Cambodia to be added to a U.S. visa blacklist.

    Compounding matters, Paetongtarn’s government was making moves towards legalizing gambling in Thailand, which would undercut a key revenue stream for the Hun family and Cambodia more broadly. (Though such moves have been mooted for many years and never caused friction previously.)

 But Thailand has its issues:

The country only has an acting Prime Minister and acting defense minister, meaning authority over border matters has effectively been handed to an aggrieved and wounded armed forces. “This is a dangerous recipe,” says Thitinan. “On one hand, you have the Thai Army in charge. On the other hand, you have Hun Sen, who is going to keep provoking things.”

In the meantime, "[t]he Thai Health Ministry on Friday said more than 58,000 have fled from villages to temporary shelters in four affected border provinces, while Cambodian authorities said more than 23,000 people have evacuated from areas near the border."