As you all know, former President Trump was found guilty yesterday of 34 criminal charges of falsifying business records. From a procedural point of view, the next step in the process is that Judge Juan Merchan--what a solidly American name--will hold a sentencing hearing on July 11, just days before the Republican convention. It seems that most experts are predicting that Trump will receive probation and/or fines, but he could in theory be given consecutive sentences adding up to 136 years. But the Secret Service has already been in discussions with prison authorities about coordinating the President's security should he be imprisoned.
Those suggesting that Trump will face no prison time note that Trump has no prior convictions and that New York sentencing guidelines advise no prison time for someone with no prior convictions where the felonies were non-violent. But the Dems really want to see Trump behind bars, so I would not be surprised it he doesn't get to spend at least some time there. But I suspect that ruinous fines will be imposed by the Judge.
Trump will appeal, of course, and given all the shenanigans by the prosecutor and court, even the New York Court of Appeals might have to rule in his favor and order a new trial. But at that point it might not matter, because the Democrats hope to have destroyed his reputation with the electorate. But the impact may not be as much as they hope--The Daily Mail reports:
A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of registered voters found 67 percent said it would not make a difference to their vote if Trump was found guilty in the hush money case.
15 percent said a guilty verdict would make them more likely to vote for him while 17 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for him come November.
Among Independent and Republican voters, a guilty verdict in the case was actually more likely than less likely to make them vote for Trump.
And then there are the political implications. John Lucas writes that yesterday was "The Most Dangerous Day for Our Country in Our Lifetimes." He explains that this is because the court decision has set the country on the course for a downward spiral where "[t]he Democrats have made the rules, and their opponents will have little choice but to play the game."
This is not a game that can or will be played by one side only. The rules are now set. When Republicans have the chance, they will play the game. Many, perhaps most, will think that a response is mandatory and that “taking the high road” is no longer an option. Instead, it would be regarded by the “progressive” left — that is to say those now in charge of the Democratic party — as weakness if they roll over and fail to respond. This is an existential threat to the stability of our political system and nation. That risk makes this the most dangerous day in the history of the Country, at least in our lifetimes.
Henceforth, weaponization of the justice system against a political opponent will be the norm. Political grudges will be resolved by political opponents in cherry-picked courtrooms where conviction is most likely. All this confirms that when controlled by scoundrels, our judicial system is becoming more like what we expect in places like China, Cuba or Venezuela, where political opponents are routinely imprisoned or worse.
Regardless of what you think of former President Trump – and I have criticized him sharply in the past both privately and in public – you, too, should fear for our Country.
Where do we go from here beyond a never-ending fight where the latest victors attempt to bankrupt and imprison their adversaries? Solving that problem has just become exponentially more difficult.
While I would like to think that the Republican party would respond in kind when it has the chance, it never has and never will. The Republican leadership knows that the power they are allowed is a consequence of playing along to get along; and they will not risk losing that power in order to play hardball. Moreover, the Democrats control the bureaucracy (or perhaps it is the other way around). So, no, we can expect little to nothing on a national level or from the federal government.
Nor would the situation change if Trump were elected. First, I want to be clear that I don't think the powers-that-be will allow Trump to be elected. What will happen this year to steal the election will make 2020 look amateurish in comparison. The only reason that Trump might be elected is to take the fall for the coming depression.
But, even should Trump were to actually win the election and be sworn in as president again, the bureaucracy would immediately turn on him and resist carrying out anything he ordered. It would be worse than in his first term.
It is unlikely that the states will play hardball, either. The Democrats feel secure that they control enough of the judiciary and prosecutors--especially in the larger and wealthier cities and states--such that the Republicans will not be able to respond in kind; and if they did, the Democrat controlled media would skewer them alive. Otherwise, we would have already seen state and local prosecutors pursuing Biden for his numerous cases of fraud, bribery, sexual abuse of his daughter, and more.
The primary problem Trump has always faced is that his strength has mostly been as a popular leader, which is anathema to the leaders on both the Left and the Right. That is, Trump's election in 2016 was the functional equivalent of a peasant uprising--something that all elites will unite against even if they otherwise hate each other. It is true that the reforms of the 1920s and '30s were the result of widespread labor unrest and outright armed conflict, combined with the threat of the “Bonus Expeditionary Forces” that marched on Washington D.C. in 1932. But the government surveillance would make a repeat of any of this near impossible. Just look at what's been done to the J6 protestors and organizers here in the U.S., and the truck protestors in Canada. On top of that, the Left will release their own goons to threaten and terrorize conservatives in the more populace states.
No, permanent change will only happen when the elites begin to turn on each other.
