How the U.S. Might Break Up

Some thoughts from Fred Reed on how the United States might break up, and some examples showing that it might already be happening. He writes:

A breakup will not come by armed secession. We tried that, with poor results. It will come, if it does, by gradual degrees, by inadvertence, by quietly ignoring the central government, by incremental defiance. This has begun. Whether it will continue remains to be seen. 

It is not clear that the feds could prevent it. How powerful, really, is Washington? Consider. Marijuana is illegal under federal law, yet Colorado and Washington state made it legal, and got away with it. The feds did not arrest the governors or send troops. Since then, Alaska and Washington DC have legalized weed. Other states seem poised to follow. Unless Washington does something dramatic and soon, the states will learn that they can simply ignore the feds. 

Who might like to secede? Most conspicuously, Latinos. In four states—California, Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico—Latinos either have or will soon have a demographic majority, which means that eventually they will have a voting majority.

On this topic, Reed observes that not only are many states and cities ignoring federal immigration laws, but that as the South West becomes more "Mexicanized," those states may increasingly ignore the border with Mexico altogether.

In the past the rock-solid unity of the United States existed because people wanted it. The foundation was a largely uniform white, Christian, European culture which no one thought about because there was no reason to think about it. Minorities were minor enough that they had to conform to the dominant culture. People shared ideas of morality, education, crime, music, religion, dress, manners, and patriotism. 

That unity is gone forever. The old, functioning system has been replaced, not by another functioning system, such as that of Japan, China, or Korea, but by civilizational chaos. A law of human behavior is that people want to live among people like themselves. Another is that they do not like being ruled from afar by people they detest. Who likes Washington today? 

Another possibility of secession lies in the South. Mississippi, the darkest state, is thirty-seven percent black. Although we are not permitted to say it, the racial hostility of blacks toward whites is intense.  While whites will (now, anyway) vote for a black candidate over a white—which is how we got Obama—blacks vote as a bloc for black candidates. (If memory serves, Obama got 93% of the black vote.) 

Should the black percentage in Mississippi grow to a tipping point, then, when whites bail out (which is usually what happens though we are not supposed to say this either), the state would become a self-governing country within a country—dependent on federal subsidies, yes, but having no loyalty to or culture in common with white society. It would not, methinks, feel an urgent need to obey federal laws.

The scenario Reed offers is in line with Tainter's thesis on the collapse of complex societies. But where Reed foresees a peaceful breakup--he argues that the Federal Government could do nothing to stop it--history shows that a breakup of a nation, or its aftermath, is rarely peaceful. Particularly where race and ethnicity play a role, ethnic cleansing is sure to follow.  Another flaw I see with his reasoning is that "Mexicanization," as he calls it, will stop with a predominantly Hispanic South West. Gains in political power there will be followed by demands for political power elsewhere--demands that might be resisted.

Finally, Reed seems to buy into the overly broad stereotype of "red state" versus "blue state" that exaggerates the unity within a given state. But it is not that clean: even blue states are mostly "red" outside of the urban areas; and even red states may have areas that are strongly "blue." Perhaps the small town and rural Coloradoan has little liking for Washington and the Northeast, but the residents of Denver probably feel differently. Similarly, the political and social attitudes of Western Oregon and Western Washington state are very different from the more conservative eastern portions of those same states.

No, if things break down, I believe it will end up being very messy.