Practical Eschatology: A Quick Run Around the Web (3/16/2020)

"More Stuff You Should Know About Buckshot [Part 2]"--Lucky Gunner Ammo (14 min.)

Latest figures for updates on Wuhan virus are: worldwide--174,160 confirmed cases, 6,686 dead; United States--3,817 confirmed cases, 66 dead. Interestingly, we have fewer reported cases than Germany, but more deaths. Probably an anomaly due to restricted testing in the U.S. But, while we are on the topic of Germany, it is revealing that the country, which has pushed the hardest for the European Union, is now figuratively pushing other EU members out of the way to get to the lifeboat first. As I noted last week, Germany and other EU members have refused assistance to Italy, also an EU member. But it goes further: citing a Foreign Policy article, Anonymous Conservative notes that "Germany essentially just stole a massive shipment of masks and personal protective equipment Italy had already paid for, having their customs seize the shipment[.]" Germany also seized a shipment of medical supplies going to Switzerland as the shipment transited through Germany premised on a new German law prohibiting the export of medical supplies. The issue was resolved, apparently at high levels, but this won't be the last of such incidents.

In an interesting twist, Bloomberg News has published an anti-globalist article. Entitled "Globalists May Soon Become an Extinct Species," the article begins on the premise that this current pandemic will shake up trade relations for years to come as both governments and corporations seek to move supply chains closer to home. But then the author takes an unusual twist and attacks the premise of so-called "free trade" between nations. It's not that the author attack's the concept of free trade, which historically has been proven over and over again to beneficial, but that what we see in the global economy is not really "free trade." From the article:

The coronavirus’s depressing effects on the global economy and disruptions of supply chains is no doubt driving the last nail into the coffin of the globalists.

They believe in the theory first articulated by Englishman David Ricardo (1773-1823) that free trade among nations benefits all of them. He argued for the comparative advantage of free trade and industrial specialization. Even if one country is more competitive in every area than its trading partners, that nation should only concentrate on the areas in which it has the greatest competitive advantage. He used the example of English-produced wool being traded for French wine—and not the reverse.

But Ricardo’s simple trade model requires economies in static equilibrium with full employment and neither trade surpluses nor deficits, and similar living standards. These aren’t true in the real world. Also, Ricardo didn’t consider countries at different stages of economic development and different degrees of economic and political freedom, or exchange rate manipulations and competitive devaluations since gold was universal money in his day.

Ricardo also didn’t factor in trading partners with huge wage differences such as the U.S. and China. As a result, China can produce almost any manufactured good cheaper than America. The result has been the huge and chronic U.S. trade deficit with China.

Trade wars are normal as countries with insufficient domestic demand to create full employment strive to unload their problems on trading partners. They promote weak currencies to make imports more expensive for residents in order to encourage local production and to make exports cheaper for foreign buyers. Subsidies for exporting companies, now widespread in China, are another tried and true technique.

Free trade is rare. Historically, it has been largely confined to periods when a major global power promoted the free exchange of products in its own enlightened self-interest. That was true of Great Britain in the 19th century after it spearheaded the Industrial Revolution and wanted to insure the easy flow of raw materials for its factories from abroad and foreign markets for their output. After World War II, Americans used trade to rebuild Western Europe and Japan to counter the Soviets, and accepted the lack of reciprocity by some of those lands, notably Japan. This was cheaper and more acceptable in the Cold War era than garrisoning more American troops around the world and risking more military confrontations.

Consequently, there were eight global tariff-cutting rounds in the post-World War II era, from the 1947 Geneva Round to the Uruguay Round in 1986-1994. That was it. The 2001 Doha Round has gone nowhere because, by then, Washington no longer needed to support the free world. Also, U.S. trade deficits were chronic and growing, especially as globalization transferred manufacturing jobs to China and other low-cost Asian countries. U.S. factory positions collapsed from 21.7 million in 1979 to 11.5 million in 2010, with only a modest recovery after the Great Recession to 12.9 million in February of this year.

Largely as a result of these developments, real wages for most Americans have been flat for several decades, making voters mad as hell. President Donald Trump played to their plights and was elected by blaming weak incomes on imports and immigrants. Lack of real income growth also convinced voters in Europe that mainstream politicians weren’t effective. The result was Brexit and an attraction to far right and extreme left parties.

The author, nevertheless, does not believe that a shift to more protectionist trade policy will benefit America workers.

I have a friend who has been very good about sending me links to articles and resources on the coronavirus outbreak, including the following PDFs. I've posted the links before, but that was before the epidemic had reached our shores:

First up, the WHO guidance on home care for patients with suspected COVID-19 infections.

Next, due to to the fact that an infection can develop into pneumonia, my friend also suggested the following article, "An Introduction to Postural Drainage & Percussion." I'm not suggesting that you forego going to the hospital for treatment, but just putting this out here in the event that you can't get treatment from a hospital.

Finally, a guide to surviving a pandemic. Although written for a flu pandemic, a lot of the information is probably transferable to this situation.

Also, as a friendly reminder, the CDC has recommendations for minimizing exposure. It notes that the Wuhan virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person: Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet); or through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. The CDC recommends washing your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds (especially after you have been in a public place, or after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing), or, if soap and water are not readily available, to use a hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol. And avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.

The guidelines also suggest avoiding close contact with someone who is sick, and keeping some social distance between other people if the virus is spreading in your community. To keep from spreading it to others, cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze or use the inside of your elbow, wash your hands immediately after, and wear a mask if you are sick to contain coughs and sneezes.

Finally, it recommends cleaning surfaces regularly with EPA registered disinfectants (you can go here for a PDF with more information on disinfectants). Alternatively, you can use rubbing alcohol (at least 70% alcohol), or a diluted bleach solution (5 tablespoons (1/3rd cup) bleach per gallon of water OR 4 teaspoons bleach per quart of water).

Related: "Bleach Water Ratio For Disinfecting | Make Your Own Disinfectant"--Modern Survival Blog.

Related: "How Much 'Pool Shock' To Make Regular Bleach Equivalent Chlorine"--Modern Survival Blog.

"Ventilator shortage – CPAP machines to the rescue?"--Value Walk. From the article:

CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta and other experts are predicting that, as the coronavirus continues to spread, our country's need for ventilators for the 1% of those afflicted who require them - one million people - would completely overwhelm the available supply of only about 72,000 full ventilators, many of which are already in use for patients with other medical problems.

But CPAP machines, already in wide use for people who snore, might be used as a temporary stopgap for those whose ventilator needs are not as severe and as complicated, suggests professor John Banzhaf, an MIT-educated engineer and inventor with several patents.

Never let a crisis go to waste: "Whether the Wuhan Virus Is a ‘Crisis’ or a Crisis"--Roger Kimball at Epoch Times. On one hand, he argues that the current epidemic is worthy of scare quotes, noting that the 2009 H1N1 flu resulted, in the United States, with some 50 million infections, approximately 270,000 hospitalizations, and more than 12,000 deaths. On the other hand, there is a crises (without scare quotes) because "[w]rit large, however—which is to say, considered as a social, psychological, political, and economic phenomenon—the Wuhan virus is positively lethal." Especially in the political sphere:

Precautions are one thing, a good thing. Panic is another thing, and a bad one. By all means, wash your hands, be careful when coughing or sneezing, take reasonable precautions. But what we are witnessing now is an access of irrational hysteria whose end is less safety than sanctimoniousness.

It also, it is worth noting, plays right into the hands of power-hungry politicians who like nothing better than to forbid whatever it is they have neglected to make mandatory. These are the folks who stand to benefit by the ill wind of the Wuhan virus. Anyone who doubts this should ponder the case of Champaign, Illinois, whose city council just voted itself emergency powers to deal with the crisis, or “crisis.”

My friend David Horowitz likes to say “scratch a liberal and you’ll discover a totalitarian screaming to get out.” The evolution of the reaction and overreaction to the Wuhan flu is a textbook case illustrating the truth of that observation.

In this latter regard, I would point out an article from Breitbart with the title, "Ex-Obama Official Reports It’s Too Late to Stop ‘over 1 Million’ U.S. Coronavirus Deaths." The ex-official is Andrew Slavitt, Barack Obama’s former acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)--basically an equivalent position to that of the head of an insurance company. He is essentially saying that no matter what we do, one million Americans will die and he lays the blame on Trump (although if the Democrats had had their way, we would still be letting people travel to the U.S. from infected countries). Anonymous Conservative has the following comments about the article:

The problem with these projections is they assume a homogenous population and what we see now will continue later. Right now this thing is killing people who had no idea, who were infected before they heard about it, and the idiots who heard about it but ignored it. It will move fast through them. As people hear about it, and it exhausts the population of idiots, it will move slower, and eventually get shut down. So trying to extrapolate what will happen later from what will happen now just isn’t going to work, and that number is probably an absolutely worst case scenario that can’t happen – unless we see some type of horrific mutation. Either way, look for a much more K population in a year and a half.

Related: "On MSNBC, De Blasio Calls for Nationalizing Industries to Stop Virus"--Newsbusters.

Speaking of pointing fingers: "America Doesn't Have Enough Hospital Beds To Fight the Coronavirus. Protectionist Health Care Regulations Are One Reason Why"--Reason.

... In many places, that shortage of beds is the result of state-level regulations—known as "certificate of need" laws, or CON laws—that artificially limit the supply of medical equipment. Those laws help politically powerful hospital chains limit regional competition and inflate health care costs, but they also create shortages of medical equipment that could prove disastrous during a pandemic.

Certificate of need laws are on the books in 35 states, but they differ from place to place. Their stated purpose is to keep hospitals from overspending, and thus from having to charge higher prices to make up for unnecessary outlays of capital costs. But in practice, they mean hospitals must get a state agency's permission before offering new services or installing a new medical technology. Depending on the state, everything from the number of hospital beds to the installation of a new MRI machine could be subject to CON review.

"There have been artificially imposed restrictions on the number of beds, ventilators, and facilities in general that can exist. Some states might find themselves having a real problem," says Jeffrey Singer, a medical doctor and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. (Singer is also a contributor to Reason Foundation, which publishes this website.)

In 28 states, hospitals must get state regulators' permission before adding beds, according to data collected by researchers at the Mercatus Center, a think tank at George Mason University. Bed space in nursing homes and long-term care facilities are subject to CON regulations in 34 states. CON laws limit long-term acute care services—the sort of thing that many coronavirus victims may need as they recover—in 30 states. Specific medical equipment, such as ventilators, could be subject to CON laws covering the purchases of new devices.

Those laws are one reason why America has fewer hospital beds than most other developed countries.

The United States has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's even less than the 3.2 hospital beds per 1,000 people in Italy, where the COVID-19 outbreak has been particularly devastating. In China, the figure is 4.3 beds per thousand people, and South Korea (whose response to the virus seems to have been the most effective so far) has a whopping 12.3 beds for every thousand people.

"CDC urges halting gatherings of 50 people or more"--Wall Street Journal.
"Gun Sales Surging as Citizens React to Possibility of Civil Unrest over Coronavirus"--Breitbart. The article is about surging sales in California. The article also notes that "[m]arijuana dispensary and liquor store sales are also surging."

Related: "Gun and ammo sales surge in US with coronavirus fears. ‘Better safe than sorry’"--Sacramento Bee. Another article relying on sales from two stores, and repeating the canard that Asians are afraid they will be the target of persecution. While I recognize that is a valid fear in other countries (thinking of the Jakarta riots), I really don't see that happening in what is still a Western Christian country.

"The S*** Is Actually Hitting the Fan But Somehow It Doesn’t Feel Real"--The Organic Prepper. The author begins:

So here we are. Right on the cusp of that SHTF event that we’ve been prepping for all these years.

A global pandemic.

A breakdown in the supply chain.

Shoppers who are already becoming agitated and even violent.

We’re watching it all unfold in our hometowns and across our nation right now.

Yet, somehow, it still doesn’t feel real to me. Is it just me who finds this hard to fathom? Am I the only one who still thinks doubtful thoughts? Like “No way. It’s going to be okay. You’re overreacting. It’s a little scare, just like Ebola and MERS and SARS.”

The author puts her reaction down to "normalcy bias." I have another couple of suggestions. First, I suspect that long time preppers probably have a certain sense of calmness because they have prepared--they aren't the one's wondering what will they do if the stores run out of food.

Second, the author notes that she has studied pandemics and the possibility of such for years. I would suggest that she may not be feeling panicked because, at least subconsciously, she knows this isn't the big one. I'm not an expert on pandemics, but I've looked at past pandemics (especially outbreaks of plague because that is a subject that interests me) and I've had that feeling myself. I certainly wondered as news first came out of China. But while the Wuhan virus is bad, the numbers are very low even compared to outbreaks of flu in the last 50 years.

While the actual viral outbreak may prove to be less than people fear (or some people hope), the panic--and the resulting economic reverberations--have been unprecedented. If I was looking at this as a sign of the nearing Second Coming, rather than scriptures about pestilence, I think of Luke 21:26 where the Lord noted that prior to his coming, "Men's hearts failing them for fear...." For those interested, I've written in the past about where we stand vis-à-vis both ancient and modern prophecy:

"A Review of Revelations--Part 4--The Sixth Seal (Continued)."

"Blogging '65 Signs of the Times Leading Up to the Second Coming' - Part 2."

"Standing in Holy Places."

"A Remarkable Vision from John Taylor."

"M1 Garand vs M1A"--Paul Harrell (24 min.)

Also compares the M1A versus the AK.

"The Importance of Situational Awareness"--Shooting Illustrated. From the article:

In the past, I’ve talked about the fact that our society pretty much allows the bad guy to make the first move and then the good guy has to play catch-up if he expects to survive the encounter. Working at improving our observation skills gives us an early-warning system that somewhat evens the odds in our favor.

Whether walking or driving, we make an effort to observe what is going on around us. The quicker we spot questionable action, the quicker we can take steps to avoid it — and that should be our first choice of action. Obviously, we won’t do a very good job of this if we go around with our nose stuck in our cell phone.

A more detailed look at situational awareness: "Situational Awareness 101"--The Survivalist Blog. This article goes beyond just telling you to "be aware," and discusses some of the specifics of training yourself to be aware, what to look for, etc. Recommended reading.
Using a lever action pistol caliber carbine for self-defense: "Henry Carbine Part II: Defensive Use"--Revolver Guy. The author readily acknowledges that this is not a modern defensive rifle with detachable magazines. But he also believes that the 8-rounds (or more, depending on make and model) of ammunition on-board will solve most of his defensive problems. Nevertheless, he spends time looking at reloading issues involving a Henry pattern carbine with no side loading gate. One of the topics covered was loading one cartridge directly into an empty chamber:

I did find it possible to reload the chamber directly, via the ejection port, though the method seems to be less forgiving of imperfect technique. On my first several tries results were mixed. Sometimes the round would feed perfectly; at other times it would bind up on the elevator, requiring some “jiggling” of the lever to free it. I identified a couple of tips that might make this easier. I have only tried these in the Henry, so be sure to test them in your own gun.

First, I enjoyed massively better results if the muzzle was angled slightly downward. Keeping the gun level – or worse, tilting it slightly muzzle up – was a recipe for getting the rim of the cartridge caught between the rear of the elevator and the top of the receiver. Just a slight downward angle helped the cartridge fall to its home, all the way forward on the elevator.

Next, I found that results were better when the the gun was not tilted side-to-side. Keeping the receiver of the gun straight up and down on its left/right axis again helped the cartridge find its place on the elevator. I ran a few iterations of this against the clock to see how quickly I could get a round back into the gun.

The author found that using a butt-cuff with loops for extra ammunition worked really well for this type of operation. I've tried this with my lever action, which is a reproduction of the Winchester 1892. It actually works fairly well with the '92 because the bolt opening is on the top rather than side. This gives you more room for your fingers to pop a cartridge part way into the chamber and then close the bolt.

Related: "Hill People Gear Lever Light Mount V2"--Jerking the Trigger. This is a flashlight mount designed to clamp onto the magazine tube of a lever action rifle, It offers an M-LOK slot, but also comes with a Picatinny rail section.

"Duncan Lemp"--Loose Rounds. The author discusses the killing of Lemp by Montgomery County, Maryland, police officers. The officers allegedly fired through Lemp's bedroom window killing him while he was sleeping. The officers were there to execute a search warrant for firearms apparently illegal in Maryland, but had not entered the home when they opened fire.
Only police can be trusted with guns: "NYPD cop kills herself inside Midtown Manhattan police station locker room after taking a gun from a young officer"--Daily Mail. From the article:

An NYPD transit cop committed suicide inside a Midtown police station Friday afternoon, using another officer’s gun to shoot herself after her own service weapon was taken away from her by the department, sources told DailyMail.com.

The officer, who was on modified duty, swiped another gun from a probationary cop with less than a year on the force.

That newbie officer faces potential disciplinary action for failure to safeguard her weapon, a source said.

"PSA 10.5 Pistol Kit Review: An AR Pistol Build on a Budget"--The New Rifleman. Positive review. The author writes:

I chose PSA for my AR pistol build because it’s what I could afford. (Editor: We just featured an article on the affordability of PSA! Hatas gonna hate.) Everyone is tight on money and that’s where PSA comes in. They offer a high-VALUE product… they’re inexpensive but great quality. PSA focuses its products at the everyday person, they to be a manufacturer that anyone can afford and still get a good firearm. The owner of PSA also wants to get as many rifles in the hands of American people as possible because he hates gun laws. He hates gun laws so much that he wants there to be SO MANY rifles in circulation that if any sort of gun law makes it through, there will be enough of his rifles in circulation that the gun law will have no effect. I support that 110%!! That’s about as American of a company as there is!

A look back at one of our country's greatest achievements: "Voyager 2 - Alone in the Night"--Silicon Graybeard. The author begins:

I've written several pieces about the Voyager program in my decade here, including that I think the exploration of the Solar system by Grand Tour of the Voyager program stands with the greatest achievements of mankind. It's a one way shot into deep space, of course it's unmanned, but I think it stands with Apollo 11 as a contender for Peak of Western Civilization.

Of course, to slowly glide out of touch with humanity was always the fate of the Voyagers, it just got a lot more real. There's only one deep space communications dish on Earth that can transmit to Voyager, although others can hear the spacecraft, the Canberra Australia station with its 70 meter (230 feet) diameter dish. Earlier this month, NASA announced that the station needs to be shut down for repair, refurbishment and enhancement. The station will be shut down for 11 months.

This means that the probe will be out of communication for those 11 months.

"Such high temperatures would completely melt an automobile in less than a minute"--Bayou Renaissance Man. He discusses the destruction of Abu Hureyra, an early agricultural settlement in Syria, some 12,800 years ago, due to a presumed impact event. He also goes on to note a hypothesis that the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah were due to an impact event, quoting the following from a paper on the subject:

According to the paper’s abstract, the scientists discovered evidence of a “high-heat” explosive event north of the Dead Sea that instantaneously “devastated approximately 500 km2.” The explosion would have wiped out all civilization in the affected area, including Middle Bronze Age cities and towns. Silvia told Science News that the blast would have instantly killed the estimated 40,000 to 65,000 people who inhabited Middle Ghor, a 25-kilometer-wide circular plain in Jordan.

Likewise, the fertile soil would have been stripped of nutrients by the high heat, and waves of the Dead Sea’s briny anhydride salts would have — tsunami-like — washed over the surrounding area. At the same time, the explosion’s fallout caused blisteringly hot, strong winds, which deposited a rain of mineral grains, which have been found on pottery at Tall el-Hammam.

Five large sites in the region which have also been excavated offered additional evidence of an immediate end to settlement at the same time of the proposed Tall el-Hammam disaster. According to Science News, radiocarbon dating of organic archaeological evidence has shown that structures’ mud-brick walls “suddenly disappeared around 3,700 years ago, leaving only stone foundations.”

Contemporary potsherds’s glazes apparently experienced temperatures high enough to transform them to glass, “perhaps as hot as the surface of the sun,” Silvia told the news source.

"Will an asteroid hit earth in 2029? This one could."--Asteroid Map. The author writes:

Asteroid 99942 Apophis could hit earth in 2029, but its more likely that a near miss will happen. Scientists estimate that there is a 1 in 40 that this large asteroid will impact earth. Apophis is about the size of the Eiffel Tower in Paris. If it does hit earth, we can only imagine the catastrophic damages that it could cause.

However, just because Apophis will likely experience a near miss doesn't that we are safe. In 2036, the massive asteroid will have a much higher chance of impact when it completes its next nerveracking orbit near earth.

The author goes on to discuss what impact (heh) a strike could have. More and more things are pointing at the mid-2030s being exciting times. We will probably be entering a grand solar minimum, so we can expect global temperatures to drop; the magnetosphere may flip or at least there may be an excursion event; Generation Z, which appears to be more K-selected that the preceding generations, will be taking its place at the table.