Monday, July 11, 2022

The Docent's Memo (July 11, 2022)

 

A look at reactionary gaps.

Firearms & Self-Defense:

    More space equals more time equals more opportunity to solve the tactical problem. The converse is also true: Less space equals less time equals fewer opportunities to solve the tactical problem. How can you create and control the reactionary gap affording you a tactical advantage when bad things happen to good people?

    Referencing ballistic weapons (firearms), the capability of the gun (handgun or long gun) and the capability of the shooter determine the effective contact range. Long gunners, using a rifle, can strike far beyond or outside your line of sight using extreme distance, concealment, position, camouflage, etc.—which, of course, means you may not be able to see them, nor determine a specific distance. 

    Employing reactive measures at longer distances and under these extreme conditions is to identify the impact area and immediately seek cover. Use your sensory input to confirm that it is gunfire. Take a second to orient to the direction of incoming rounds, as you do not want to inadvertently run into a hailstorm of flying lead. 

The rest of the article covers a lot of different topics that relate to maintaining awareness and keeping enough space (and thus time) to react to problems. The author wraps it up:

    Controlling the reactionary gap begins with situational awareness. You want the advantage of being able to apply proactive measures as opposed to reactive measures. However, applying good situational awareness is only part of the solution. 

    Once a potential threat has been identified, you must make an ad hoc plan on the move. After recognizing a problem, your next step is to solve that problem. What is the best solution? You can’t go wrong with creating more space as this increases the reactionary gap, which in turn increases your reaction time, buying you further options. In doing so, you may have increased the gap so much so that your attacker(s) may consider a softer target. However, it is possible that they may close the reactionary gap warranting an immediate solution to the problem. 

    Your options are either an exit plan—find a way out to get off that fateful ‘X’ and move to a safer physical position—or equalize use of force against the active threat. The safest of these two plans is to exit, which further increases your reactionary gap, allows for additional proactive measures and lowers your injury potential. The less safe of these two, and the option where you have no other choice, is to equalize against the threat; that is get something in your hands such as a ballistic or non-ballistic weapon with which you may effectively solve the tactical problem. 

I don't know if he was motivated by this article or not, but the host of the Hard 2 Hurt channel released a video (embedded above) on the same topic titled "Situational Awareness is Not the Answer to Self Defense." (The discussion on reactionary gap starts about the 5:30 mark). But what he adds is different methods of building reactionary gaps out of things like angles, physical objects, and language, giving examples of each. 

    There is another point raised, sort of, in the article, and discussed at length at the beginning of the Hard 2 Hurt video, which is that we learn these skills so we can enjoy life without becoming a victim. As the author of the article asks, "do you really want to stay behind closed doors and live in fear?"

  • "What About the 20 Gauge for Home Protection?" Greg Ellifritz addresses what is probably a frequent question among those who appreciate the effectiveness of shotguns in a defensive situation, but don't appreciate the heavy recoil of a 12-gauge. 

The 20 gauge can be an excellent home defense weapon.  The problem, as my reader noted, is the availability of really high quality defensive ammunition.  Double aught buckshot doesn’t pack neatly into a 20 gauge shell.  Most companies load their 20 gauge offerings with numbers two, three, or four buckshot instead.  As far as I know, no company is currently using an improved wad like the Federal Flight Control or Hornady Tap.  That means if you choose the 20 gauge, you will be limited to what is essentially 19th century ammunition technology.

Thus, he writes: 

For pests like raccoons, coyotes, and feral dogs raiding the hen house, my reader won’t be hampered by the ballistic disadvantages of the available 20 gauge loads.  For self defense against humans, the 20 gauge may or may not be a good choice depending on the circumstances.

He goes on to discuss patterning with different shotgun loads, including test of various 20-gauge loads. Unfortunately, the 20-gauge loads produced the largest patterns, with unacceptable spread at just 30 feet. This was worse even than Wolf Buckshot loads! What this means is that "[f]or indoor home defense scenarios, the 20 gauge will probably be fine," but "[i]f your defensive encounter might occur at a longer distance, choose the 12 gauge."

    There is no reason, of course, why 20 gauge loads can't be made to pattern more tightly. The key with 12-gauge seems to have been using specially designed wads and reducing the load from 9 pellets to 8 pellets. The ammunition manufacturers must not see a demand, however, for 20-gauge defensive shotgun. Which is weird because I see .410 shotguns (or shotgun like weapons) marketed for defense as well as specialty loads for self-defense loads. But manufacturers are heavily influenced by the top shooters and gun writers and don't seem to spend the time or money on market research. It probably will require either a lot of people writing companies asking for 20-gauge versions of popular defensive shotguns and defensive loads and/or some well-known shooters and writers championing the 20-gauge as a defensive weapon to get some change. This would be most effective, I suspect, if women-shooters were the ones to push the issue since the manufacturers have been very focused on this expanding market.

  • "Wheelgun Wednesday: The Pros & Cons Of Speed Strips." The Firearm Blog has a weekly column on revolvers and revolver related topics. This past week's topic was the Speed Strip and similar products that are essentially a rubber or polymer strip with a pocket or hole into which the base of a cartridge is inserted. When loading the tip of the cartridges (generally you can load two at a time) are inserted into the cylinder bore and then pealed off the Speed Strip before moving to the next two, and so on. The original Speed Strip is by Bianchi and can hold up to 6 rounds, but there are other manufacturers making the same or similar products, with Tuff Products making their QuickStrips with different capacities. However, when using a 6 round strip with a snub nosed revolver, the best practice seems to be to only load two rounds on each end of the strip and leave the middle two spots open. Although you only have four rounds, the advantage is a faster reload because you have better purchase and leverage when pealing off the rounds. The author of this piece has a photograph where he is using a 7-round QuickStrip loading two on each end and one in the middle, leaving a space on either side of the middle strip to give you extra purchase when pealing off the strip.
  • "Cast Hollow Points" by Glen E. Fryxell. For you revolver shooters:
    ... Elmer Keith was a major proponent of cast hollow-points, but interest in this area has waned in recent years. This is really unfortunate because some really fine hunting bullets can be made, and in fact, the hunter can tailor the final expansion characteristics to his (or her) specific desires and needs.

     I feel that cast HP's are better bullets than their commercial jacketed counterparts. Undoubtedly, the personal pride of creating the cast HP's factors into this bias, but I feel that there is a solid, structural basis for this conclusion as well. Commercial JHP's, as good as some of them are, have a significant structural "flaw" stemming from the fact that they are made from dissimilar materials -- a hard (sometimes brittle) jacket and a soft, malleable core. Once the jacket opens up and exposes the soft core, the unsupported core can erode away, the jacket can fragment and the two distinct pieces can separate. The core must have the support from the jacket to withstand all the forces crushing it during the expansion and stoppage of a bullet. Therefore, the basic composition of a strong jacket/weak core requires a careful balancing act on the part of the manufacturer to get the jacket thickness and ductility to properly offset the core hardness, as well as cavity size, shape and depth. Obviously, these decisions require a certain amount of compromise, and the manufacturer's final choices may or may not suit your particular needs.

     The cast HP, on the other hand, is made of a homogenous alloy of moderate strength, that undergoes uniform and predictable deformation. The caster can easily dictate the degree of expansion to suit a particular application by varying the alloy composition and hardness.
  • "TFB Armorer’s Bench: M1 Garand Gas System and Ammunition Solutions." First, let me deal with a pet peeve of mine  which is how to pronounce the name of the rifle. I hear more and more often people pronouncing Garand like "errand". That's fine as to the inventor's name because that is how he pronounced his name. But the military officials and troops called it the "Garand," rhyming with "grand". It is therefore incorrect to use the "errand" pronunciation when referring to the rifle. Anyway, if you own a Garand you probably already know this, but the military round that the rifle was designed to use operates at lower pressures than your standard hunting round. The result is that if you use standard hunting loads, you can damage or break the operating rod. The article discusses a couple of ways to avoid this: (1) use commercial or hand loads intended for shooting in the M1 Garand (many reloading manuals have special sections just for the M1 Garand loads) or (2) use a special gas plug designed to bleed off excess gas and keep the pressure within the safe limits.
  • "THE SIG P220 .45 AUTO." Money quote: "Bear defense notwithstanding, if you have a Sig P220 you probably don’t need another handgun." 
  • It was huge! "PICTURED: Huge arsenal including two rifles, a handgun and 232 rounds of ammunition - seized from non-US man who plotted July 4 shooting in Virginia." Do you even know a gunowner with that paltry of a collection? Firearms are like potato chips: you can't just stop with one (or two or three...).
  • "Highland Park Killer Bought His Guns Legally Despite ‘Warning Signs’" by Dan Zimmerman.
    ... Bloviation and histrionics by politicians and the gun control industry are meant to deceive the public into thinking that if we just pass more “gun safety” laws, what happened in Highland Park can be prevented.

    That’s a cynical lie and they know it. It’s all an elaborate system of security theater meant to fool the public and make it harder for the average citizen to defend him- or herself from the kind of threats they’re most likely to encounter. And the web of gun control laws are administered by government functionaries on the public payroll who operate in a vast bureaucracy, sometimes with political agendas.

    In other words, the system is terrible. And always has been.

    Between Illinois and the city of Highland Park, all of the gun control laws that the Civilian Disarmament Industrial Complex calls for most often were already in place; gun owner registration, no sales under 21, a three-day waiting period, red flag confiscation orders, and, yes, even an “assault weapons” ban.

    How well did that work out?

    People have pointed out that these shootings did not happen in the past, suggesting that something has changed. And it isn't easy access to semi-auto weapons using magazines of more than 10 rounds either as William Lawson points out in his article, "Stephen Hunter: The Assault Weapon Massacres of 1964." 

    Hunter recently made an astute observation in the wake of the anti-gun uproar of the last month or so, writing in a column:  “Possibly you’re old enough to remember the great massacre spree of 1964? Classrooms shot up, strip malls decimated, Scout troops blown away, fast food restaurants turned into mortuaries. And all because, in its infinite stupidity, the U.S. Government dumped 240,000 high-capacity .30-caliber assault rifles into an otherwise innocent America.”

    Remember when that happened? No? Me neither, despite being a historian. That’s because it didn’t happen, despite hundreds of thousands of M-1 Carbines being dumped on an unsuspecting public in 1963 for less than a hundred bucks apiece. NRA members could buy them for a 20-dollar bill. No background check either.

    You could even have them shipped right to your door, complete with a “high capacity” 15-round magazine. Ultra-high catastrophic murder capacity 30-round mags were also available for little or nothing. .30 Carbine ammo was cheap and widely available. I’ll bet some of those bullet casings even had a shark’s mouth painted on it to make it extra scary and more able to blow lungs out of the body.

He muses:

    Does that mean there were no bad people around in 1964? Doubtful. But maybe, just maybe, people are bad in a different way now. Could it possibly be true that something other than access to firearms could be driving these twisted individuals to kill innocent people? Even children? Gun owners are often pilloried in the media for not offering solutions to these horrific trends. But what have the gun controllers offered? Ban “assault weapons.” Ban “high capacity” magazines. Tax ammunition. Ban all the guns. Run a microscope up your ass and wait 30 days before allowing the sale. That’s literally all they have.

    But 1964 exposes the lie. This is a relatively recent trend. There are multiple causative factors at work here. For instance, those of us who pay attention are aware of what some medications do to people susceptible to their side effects. I witnessed firsthand the complete loss of inhibition in a close friend. The consequences were ugly. Does that mean that medications are solely responsible? No, but I’d bet everything I own that some of them are part of the puzzle. Not to mention how quickly they’re pumped into kids at the first sign of the latest trendy diagnosis.

Others, including myself, have pointed at the destruction of the traditional family as a cause. After all, if fathers are the primary parent to teach restrain and self-control, what happens when kids don't have fathers or their fathers are too feminized to effectively act as a father. It's not a new idea; see the 1995 report, "The Real Root Causes of Violent Crime: The Breakdown of Marriage, Family, and Community" by Patrick Fagan. Fagan notes the following:

  • Over the past thirty years, the rise in violent crime parallels the rise in families abandoned by fathers.
  • High-crime neighborhoods are characterized by high concentrations of families abandoned by fathers.
  • State-by-state analysis by Heritage scholars indicates that a 10 percent increase in the percentage of children living in single-parent homes leads typically to a 17 percent increase in juvenile crime.
  • The rate of violent teenage crime corresponds with the number of families abandoned by fathers.
  • The type of aggression and hostility demonstrated by a future criminal often is foreshadowed in unusual aggressiveness as early as age five or six.
  • The future criminal tends to be an individual rejected by other children as early as the first grade who goes on to form his own group of friends, often the future delinquent gang.

On the other hand:

  • Neighborhoods with a high degree of religious practice are not high-crime neighborhoods.
  • Even in high-crime inner-city neighborhoods, well over 90 percent of children from safe, stable homes do not become delinquents. By contrast only 10 percent of children from unsafe, unstable homes in these neighborhoods avoid crime.
  • Criminals capable of sustaining marriage gradually move away from a life of crime after they get married.
  • The mother's strong affectionate attachment to her child is the child's best buffer against a life of crime.
  • The father's authority and involvement in raising his children are also a great buffer against a life of crime.

The scholarly evidence, in short, suggests that at the heart of the explosion of crime in America is the loss of the capacity of fathers and mothers to be responsible in caring for the children they bring into the world. This loss of love and guidance at the intimate levels of marriage and family has broad social consequences for children and for the wider community. The empirical evidence shows that too many young men and women from broken families tend to have a much weaker sense of connection with their neighborhood and are prone to exploit its members to satisfy their unmet needs or desires. This contributes to a loss of a sense of community and to the disintegration of neighborhoods into social chaos and violent crime. If policymakers are to deal with the root causes of crime, therefore, they must deal with the rapid rise of illegitimacy.

He goes on to explain:

    Propensity to crime develops in stages associated with major psychological and sociological factors. The factors are not caused by race or poverty, and the stages are the normal tasks of growing up that every child confronts as he gets older. In the case of future violent criminals these tasks, in the absence of the love, affection, and dedication of both his parents, become perverse exercises, frustrating his needs and stunting his ability to belong.

    The stages are:

  • Early infancy and the development of the capacity for empathy. Early family life and the development of relationships based on agreements being kept and a sense of an intimate place where he belongs. Early school life and the development of peer relationships based on cooperation and agreements conveying a sense of a community to which he belongs.
  • Mid-childhood and the experience of a growing capacity to learn and cooperate within his community.
  • Adolescence and the need to belong as an adult and to perform.
  • Generativity, or the begetting of the next generation through intimate sexual union and bringing others into the family and the community.

In all of these stages the lack of dedication and the atmosphere of rejection or conflict within the family diminish the child's experience of his personal life as one of love, dedication, and a place to belong. Instead, it is characterized increasingly by rejection, abandonment, conflict, isolation, and even abuse. He is compelled to seek a place to belong outside of such a home and, most frequently not finding it in the ordinary community, finds it among others who have experienced similar rejection. He becomes attached to those who are alienated, for, like him, they have been rejected. Not finding acceptance and nurturance from caring adults, they begin conveying their own form of acceptance.

This atomization and feeling alienated may have played a part here. I think this headline from the New York Post says it all: "Family of Robert Crimo’s only friend: ‘It blows my mind,’ he was a ‘happy kid’." Well, maybe not all of it: the article also reports that his "only friend" died in 2017, so he effectively was friendless. (UPDATE: I don't want to give the impression that I am suggesting that the killer is blameless in all this. He's not. He had his free will. And there are undoubtedly millions of people out there right now that had childhoods as bad or worse and didn't turn into mass shooters).

Prepping & Survival

  • "2022 Halftime Report" by Paul Martin. The outlook is not good, with polls showing a nearly a quarter of Americans feel that citizens may need to take up arms against the government, a super-majority of Republicans and Independents believe that the government is corrupt and rigged against them, 49% of Americans feel like strangers in their own country. And that is not even considering the economic issues and warnings of food crises. He also has some advice on purchasing supplies and equipment to prepare for what is ahead. One of these points: 
I've suggested this before, and now I am telling you: get yourself into a house of worship of your choice and become active in it.  I explain how you can do that in this piece.  We need to be developing community with people who share our beliefs.  Do not delay.  Read that piece I wrote about how to do this.  Then do it.  
  • "How To Apply A Tourniquet Correctly: Because Death Is Not An Option" by Kevin Estela. The article discusses staging the tourniquet, one-handed versus two-handed application and then goes into the basic guidelines for applying the tourniquet: high and tight; tightening and securing the tourniquet; and marking the time when it was applied, but warning against loosening it (that is for the doctor to do).
  • "Campfire Cooking for Preppers" by Freedom Preppers. If you think this is just another article on cooking over a fire (actually, over coals) using cast iron pots and Dutch ovens, think again. The article discusses locating the fire, laying the stones around the fire (not just a standard circle, but shaped to make the best use of the stones for protecting from wind, accessing the coals, and channeling smoke), grading the coals (essentially giving you high, medium, and low heat cooking areas) and a lot more. Read it, study the illustrations, and print it or save it for future reference.
  • "Laundry Line Tips From An Old Hat" by Amanda Woodlee. As the article notes, the primary reason to line dry is to save money on electricity. From the article:
    Hanging laundry is pretty simple stuff, and I’m not here to complicate it. Whether you’re new to it or an old hat like me, if you’d like to get the most out of it, here are a few tips I’d like to share from doing this a few years.

Towel the line — It’s warm out, and that means pollen is everywhere. Unless you’re into yellow stripes, take a minute to run a damp cloth down every inch of hanging surface.

Double up — Hang a piece with two pins, then overlap it with the next piece and use the second pin to hold up one side of the next piece, so that they share it. This works best on thinner pieces, and keep in mind it will slow the drying process a smidgen. This, along with grouping like items, is also helpful when you have a lot of pieces to hang so you don’t run out of pins.

Flip out — Remember what I said about the sun? That’s good on whites — leave them be. But, if you want your colors to last, protect their exteriors by turning them inside-out. This is also great for pants because it helps pockets dry faster. Pro-tip: turn underwear inside out. Don’t make me explain why.

Whip it good — Give everything a good shake when you hang it. Helps get the dog fur and wrinkles out. If there’s not any wind, clothes dry in the shape they’re left in, so make it a good one.

Fluff ‘n stuff — When finished, I like to toss the load into the dryer on the air-dry setting for 5-10 minutes; helps get the dust off and softens. Save this task for late at night or early in the morning before the temperature climbs.

Bring it in — Don’t leave clothes on the line overnight, and don’t leave the basket outside all day; the sun dries and weakens the plastic. And if your clothespin bag doesn’t zip, best take it inside so critters don’t move in and surprise you next time you reach inside!

Don’t be such a snag — If you have delicate fabrics (satins, laces, hosiery), consider investing in soft-grip plastic clothespins with rubber feet to avoid snags. For everything else my 50 or so wooden pins do just fine.

Scoot yer boot — I hang my pin bag over one of the middle lines and move it down as I go so it’s always nearby.

Those are the general techniques and advice. She has some specific ones for certain types of clothing, as well as some other advantages to air drying.

    Rachael explains that fat burning takes place when carbs and fat are turned into energy called adenosine triphosphate (ATP).

    The body needs oxygen to convert fat into ATP and when you're doing low to moderate-intensity exercise, you're able to breathe easier so your body gets more oxygen than when you're doing high intensity training.

    'The most efficient thing your body can do during lower and moderate forms of exercise is to turn to your stored fat into energy,' she said.

    'So according to the fat burning theory, you should do long low-intensity exercises in order to use up fat storage and to burn enough calories in order to see weight loss.'

    Rachael added that during high intensity training the body is more likely to burn carbs (glycogen) rather than fat as it doesn't have enough energy to burn fat.

    'When you do a high-intensity workout, your body burns through your glycogen stores and may eventually turn back to fat burning depending on the length of the workout, and your body’s amount of stored carbs,' she added.

    'But if you eat before doing a high-intensity workout (and especially if your diet is high in carbs), your body will most probably burn way more carbs than fat.'

VIDEO: "How Our World and Age will Collapse Very Soon"--What if all this (21 min.)

News & Analysis

    The Russian company said that although it tried to source its potatoes from Russian suppliers, it had become impossible to import potatoes from external markets to make up for the shortfall in the domestic crop.

    However, the Russian agriculture ministry issued a combative statement on Telegram entitled 'There are potatoes - and that's it' disputing Vkusno i Tochka's account that it could not source domestic potatoes.

    'The Russian market is fully supplied with potatoes, including processed ones. In addition, crops from the new harvest are already arriving, which rules out the possibility of a shortage,' the ministry said. 

    The Russian agriculture ministry's statement could be part of a state-wide propaganda effort to downplay or deny completely the impact of Western sanctions on the country's economy. 

    However, it is not the first time that Vkusno i Tochka's ability to replace McDonald's operation in Russia has come into question.

    Supply chain issues that have plagued the company have been put down to the wide-ranging sanctions placed on the Russian economy in response to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. 

    Earlier this month the fast food chain, which also translates as 'Delicious full stop', was caught serving mouldy burgers to fed-up customers, suggesting that it was struggling to source fresh burger buns too.

The fast food company and the Russian ministry could both be right: Russet potatoes, necessary for the french fries, could be in short supply while the overall supply of potatoes of other varieties generally used for cooking is fine. But it is a data point to consider that the Russian situation may not be as wonderful as some are pointing out. 

    Retail has had a tough few weeks recently. It began with Target announcing it would liquidate a massive amount of slow-moving inventory that was not selling as well post-pandemic, like home goods.

    Then retailers like RH, Bed Bath & Beyond and Kohl’s all revised earnings or issued warnings that second quarter performances would be well below expectations. Bed Bath and Beyond announced they were eliminating air conditioning to save money, and at least one analyst said they might go under.
    Food commodities like corn, soybean, and wheat have collapsed recently, entering bear market territory as more than 20% was shaved off their recent peaks.

    Dennis Sweeney, CEO of Infinity Brokerage said the, “talk across all commodity assets is demand destruction. I believe funds are worried about a recession.”

    Prices of these commodities were skyrocketing earlier in the year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatened to create mass shortages. But now they are coming back to earth, as investors are seeing previous fears are failing to materialize.

    Wheat is presently down 30% from its highs in March. Meanwhile, Corn and soybeans have lost all of their 2022 gains so far this year.

    Sweeney said, “Bids were scarce as funds tried to exit the last couple of weeks.”

    Also driving prices down is the recent plunges in WTI crude and Brent crude, as investors have always noted energy and agricultural commodities tend to travel in tandem in the market.

    In addition, as the Fed moves to tame inflation, that is strengthening the dollar which will also work to drive down the cost of commodities comparitively.
  • "Texas Republicans Call For TEXIT Vote With 90% In Favor." The Texas Republican Party released its platform and one of the planks, which passed with 90% voting in favor, called for the Texas Legislature to pass a bill "requiring a referendum in the 2023 General Election for the people of Texas to determine whether or not the State of Texas should reassert its status as an independent nation." I've always viewed Texas and California as the states most likely to secede because of their size and economic clout, with Texas also having the historical precedent of having been an independent nation at one time. I can't see the feds allowing it to happen; but, if Texas nevertheless did so without the feds stepping in, I suspect that Texas would probably soon be embroiled in a war with Mexico based on some trumped up claim that Mexico needed to save its citizens from the gringo "occupiers" and Mexico acting with the tacit support of whatever remained of the United States.
  • "Texas Gov. Greg Abbott orders troopers, National Guard to deport migrants." The federal government was intended to provide a unified face to the world on behalf of the states in the union, which includes waging war, enforcing immigration law and, as the Post points out, safeguard states from invasion. Nevertheless, Article I, § 10 of the U.S. Constitution allows states to engage in War if actually invaded, "or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay." Abbot is relying on this latter provision "to secure the State of Texas and repel the illegal immigration that funds the cartels."
  • Debt serfdom at its longest: I know that Boris Johnson resigned last week as the British PM, but I doubt that will put the kibosh on a plan to offer multigenerational mortgages. Basically, these are 50-year mortgages that would allow parents and their children to go into debt together to purchase a house. As always, the while the plan is ostensibly to help people that are having difficulty with purchasing homes, the real beneficiaries will probably be wealthier families who will (a) have the collateral or security to be approved for such loans, and (b) can use it as an estate planning device.
  • The vaccines are safe and effective: "Yet Another Life Insurance CEO Reveals Deaths Are Up 40% Among Working People." The author relates, "First it was CEO Scott Davison of OneAmerica who in January disclosed that deaths were up 40% among people ages 18-64 ... And now we have the CEO of Lincoln National, the fifth largest life insurance company in America, corroborating the 40% surge in all-cause mortality."
  • The lockdowns saved countless lives: "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on COVID-19 Mortality – II" by Jonas Herby, Lars Jonung, and Steve H. Hanke. 

Stringency index studies find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID19 mortality by 3.2%. This translates into approximately 6,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 4,000 in the United States. SIPOs were also relatively ineffective in the spring of 2020, only reducing COVID-19 mortality by 2.0%. This translates into approximately 4,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 3,000 in the United States. Based on specific NPIs, we estimate that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States in the spring of 2020 reduced COVID-19 mortality by 10.7%. This translates into approximately 23,000 avoided deaths in Europe and 16,000 in the United States. In comparison, there are approximately 72,000 flu deaths in Europe and 38,000 flu deaths in the United States each year. 

The U.S. pandemic lockdown in 2020 caused a $2.3 trillion economic downturn which translates to a little over $143 million for each life saved. And that doesn't include the "stimulus" spending to counteract the downturn or the long term economic impact on young people that essentially missed out on education or job development during the lockdown.

2 comments:

  1. The Army keeps sifting out (likely) the most committed and capable troops.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a double edged sword for the Left: weakening the military advances their interests vis-à-vis the international stage but also means that they have a weaker military to deal with uppity Americans when that day comes.

      Delete

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